Epidemic models have generally assumed that the population mixes homogeneously. More realistic models can be obtained by dividing the population into sub-populations within which mixing is homogeneous but between which mixing is heterogeneous. We consider such a model for the general epidemic process and present a formulation which permits inroads to be made towards obtaining explicit solutions to the state probabilities.

Regenerative stopping problems are stopping problems which recommence from the initial state upon stopping. An algorithm is presented which solves semi-Markov regenerative stopping problem with a finite number of continue actions by solving a sequence of stopping problems. New results for the optimal stopping problem are obtained as well as for the regenerative stopping problem. A model in the literature is used as a detailed example of the algorithm.

A non-linear stochastic model for the single-server machine interference problem is investigated. The service rate is a rational function of the number of failed machines, the numerator as well as the denominator of the function being linear in n. Depending on the relative values of the parameters involved, the service rate may increase or decrease with n, exhibiting the incentive or disincentive effect. The analysis is carried out by the usual diffusion approximation technique. A notable feature of this model is the threshold effect exhibited in the mean queue size.

Is the Ewens distribution the only one-parameter family of partition structures where the total number of types sampled is a sufficient statistic? In general, the answer is no. It is shown that all counterexamples can be generated via an urn scheme. The urn scheme need only satisfy two general conditions. In fact, the conditions are both necessary and sufficient. However, in particular, for a large class of partition structures that naturally arise in the infinite alleles theory of population genetics, the Ewens distribution is the only one in this class where the total number of types is sufficient for estimating the mutation rate. Finally, asymptotic sufficiency for parametric families of partition structures is discussed.

In this paper we obtain a recursive formula for the density of the double-barrier Parisian stopping time. We present a probabilistic proof of the formula for the first few steps of the recursion, and then a formal proof using explicit Laplace inversions. These results provide an efficient computational method for pricing double-barrier Parisian options.

Points randomly placed in Rn are independently assigned a speed and direction of motion. The time between collisions with a central n-sphere is obtained. If instead of straight-line motion the points perform Brownian motion, the analogous inter-collision-time distribution is obtained.

We present a new approach to the processor-sharing queue that allows us to study the accumulated work process of a job that requires an amount of processing time x. Our approach simplifies the proofs of some earlier results on expected conditional response times and extends them to the M/G/φ (·) class. The approach illuminates some of the paradoxical features of these systems.

Reciprocal pairs of continuous random variables on the line are considered, such that the density function of each is, to within a norming factor, the characteristic function of the other. The analogous reciprocal relationship between a discrete distribution on the line and a continuous distribution on the circle is also considered. A conjecture is made regarding infinite divisibility properties of such pairs of random variables. It is shown that the von Mises distribution is infinitely divisible for sufficiently small values of the concentration parameter.

The deleting or delay effect which a recurrent point process exerts upon another recurrent point process (or process with stationary independent increments) is treated. The concept arises in the statistical analysis of neuronal firing patterns, but may also be useful in applications to storage systems in operations research.

In this paper a dam with autoregressive inputs and unit outputs is considered. Approximations for the distributions of the times to first emptiness and overflow are obtained using a Wald-type identity. The limiting behaviour of the dam content is also investigated

We consider a population distributed over two habitats as represented by two separate one-dimensional branching processes with random environments. The presence of random fluctuation in reproduction rates in both habitats implies the possibility that neither habitat is universally superior to the other for all times and that a maximal population size is to be achieved by having population members present in both habitats. We show that optimal population growth occurs when migration between habitats occurs at a fixed rate which can be found from the environmentally determined reproduction variables of the separate habitats. The optimal processes are themselves two-type branching processes with random environments.

A body E is completely embedded within a convex body G. A line segment is generated by a measure depending only on E or on both E and G. This line segment is then projected to the surface of G in one or both directions. The distributions of selected line segments of this type are derived.

For a non-negative separable random field Z(t), $t\in \mathbb{R}^d$ , satisfying some mild assumptions, we show that $ H_Z^\delta =\lim_{{T} \to \infty} ({1}/{T^d}) \mathbb{E}\{{\sup_{ t\in [0,T]^d \cap \delta \mathbb{Z}^d } Z(t) }\} <\infty$ for $\delta \ge 0$ , where $0 \mathbb{Z}^d\,:\!=\,\mathbb{R}^d$ , and prove that $H_Z^0$ can be approximated by $H_Z^\delta$ if $\delta$ tends to 0. These results extend the classical findings for Pickands constants $H_{Z}^\delta$ , defined for $Z(t)= \exp( \sqrt{ 2} B_\alpha (t)- \lvert {t} \rvert^{2\alpha })$ , $t\in \mathbb{R}$ , with $B_\alpha$ a standard fractional Brownian motion with Hurst parameter $\alpha \in (0,1]$ . The continuity of $H_{Z}^\delta$ at $\delta=0$ is additionally shown for two particular extensions of Pickands constants.

Simple definitions and derivations of elementary properties are given for the various intensities and Palm-Khinchin functions associated with a multivariate point process.

An urn contains m minus balls and p plus balls, and we draw balls from this urn one at a time randomly without replacement until we wish to stop. Let Pn and Mn denote the respective numbers of plus balls and minus balls drawn by time n and define Z0 = 0, Zn = Pn - Mn, 1 ≤ n ≤ m + p. The main problem of this paper is to stop with maximum probability on the maximum of the trajectory formed by . This problem is closely related to the celebrated ballot problem, so that we obtain some identities concerning the ballot problem and then derive the optimal stopping rule explicitly. Some related modifications are also studied.

1. Let {Z(t), t ≧ 0} be an age-dependent branching process with offspring generating function and life-time distribution function G(t). Denote by N(t) the progeny of the process, that is the total number of objects which have been born in [0, t], counting the ancestor. (See Section 2 for definitions.) Then in the Galton-Watson process (i.e., when G(t) = 0 for t ≦ 1, G(t) = 1 for t > 1) we have the simple relation Nn = Z0 + Z1 + ··· + Zn, so that the asymptotic behaviour of Nn as n → ∞ follows from a knowledge of the asymptotic behaviour of Zn. In particular, if 1 < m = h'(1) < ∞ and Zn(ω)/E(Zn) → Z(ω) > 0 then also Nn(ω)/E(Nn) → Z(ω) > 0; since E(Zn)/E(Nn) → 1 – m–1 this means that

For a GI/G/1 queue we derive new lower and uper bounds on the expected stationary waiting time which are a function of more than the first two moments of the inter-arrival and service times. When the probability for a delay is low, the bounds tend to be better than other bounds. This is illustrated in an example of a Uniform/Uniform/1 queue.

We consider a variant of the house-selling problem in which the seller has n objects for sale and the buyers come sequentially one by one. The objective of this paper is to find the seller's optimal strategy for choosing his selling price so as to maximize the average reward per selling attempt until the nth house is sold.

This paper analyzes players’ long-run behavior in an evolutionary model with time-varying mutations under both uniform and local interaction rules. It is shown that a risk-dominant Nash equilibrium in a 2 × 2 coordination game would emerge as the long-run equilibrium if and only if mutation rates do not decrease to zero too fast under both interaction methods. The convergence rates of the dynamic system under both interaction rules are also derived. We find that the dynamic system with local matching may not converge faster than that with uniform matching.

We compare two versions of a symmetric two-queue polling model with switchover times and setup times. The SI version has State-Independent setups, according to which the server sets up at the polled queue whether or not work is waiting there; and the SD version has State-Dependent setups, according to which the server sets up only when work is waiting at the polled queue. Naive intuition would lead one to believe that the SD version should perform better than the SI version. We characterize the difference in the expected waiting times of these two versions, and we uncover some surprising facts. In particular, we show that, regardless of the server utilization or the service-time distribution, the SD version performs (i) the same as, (ii) worse than, or (iii) better than its SI counterpart if the switchover and setup times are, respectively, (i) both constants, (ii) variable (i.e. non-deterministic) and constant, or (iii) constant and variable. Only (iii) is consistent with naive intuition.