Stochastic models in population genetics which lead to diffusion equations are considered. A geometric formula for the asymptotic expansions of the fundamental solutions of these equations is presented. Specifically, the random genetic drift process of one-locus theory and the Ohta–Kimura model of two-locus di-allelic systems with linkage are studied. Agreement with the work of Keller and Voronka for the two-allele one-locus case is obtained. For the general n-allele problem, the formulas obtained here are apparently new.

We derive multivariate Sobel–Uppuluri–Galambos-type lower bounds for the probability that at least a1 and at least a2, and for the probability that exactly a1 and a2, out of n and N events, occur. The lower bound presented here reduces to a sharper bound than that of Galambos and Lee (1992). Our approach is by way of indicator functions and bivariate binomial moments. A new concept, marginal Bonferroni summation, is introduced in this paper.

In a recent paper [7] the authors studied the optimal control policy of the following queueing system. Customers arrive at a service station according to a time homogeneous Poisson process with a known arrival intensity, λ. The service time at the station is a random variable having a negative exponential distribution with intensity μ, which is under control and can be varied over a certain range, according to the management policy.

We prove that, for Poisson transmission and recovery processes, the classic susceptible→infected→recovered (SIR) epidemic model of Kermack and McKendrick provides, for any given time t>0, a strict lower bound on the expected number of susceptibles and a strict upper bound on the expected number of recoveries in the general stochastic SIR epidemic. The proof is based on the recent message passing representation of SIR epidemics applied to a complete graph.

A semi-Markov decision process, with a denumerable multidimensional state space, is considered. At any given state only a finite number of actions can be taken to control the process. The immediate reward earned in one transition period is merely assumed to be bounded by a polynomial and a bound is imposed on a weighted moment of the next state reached in one transition. It is shown that under an ergodicity assumption there is a stationary optimal policy for the long-run average reward criterion. A queueing network scheduling problem, for which previous criteria are inapplicable, is given as an application.

Let P(c) = P(X1 ≦ c1, · ··, Xp ≦ cp) for a random vector (X1, · ··, Xp). Bounds are considered of the form where T is a spanning tree corresponding to the bivariate probability structure and di is the degree of the vertex i in T. An optimized version of this inequality is obtained. The main result is that alwayṡ dominates certain second-order Bonferroni bounds. Conditions on the covariance matrix of a N(0,Σ) distribution are given so that this bound applies, and various applications are given.

This paper is a study of the error in approximating the global maximum of a Brownian motion on the unit interval by observing the value at randomly chosen points. One point of view is to look at the error from random sampling for a given fixed Brownian sample path; another is to look at the error with both the path and observations random. In the first case we show that for almost all Brownian paths the error, normalized by multiplying by the square root of the number of observations, does not converge in distribution, while in the second case the normalized error does converge in distribution. We derive the limiting distribution of the normalized error averaged over all paths.

Let S be a countable set, Q a strictly positive matrix on S × S. The set 𝒢(Q) of one-dimensional Markov random fields taking values in S with conditional probabilities determined by Q has been investigated by Spitzer [4], Föllmer [1] and Kesten [3]. In this paper a new result of Spitzer's is stated and proved, and used to present a specific example (the only one known) of a matrix Q which exhibits phase transition and admits a complete description of 𝒢 (Q).

The sign-changes over the entire real line of a Gaussian process with unit variance and mean zero are observed. The Gaussian process is reconstructed by an interpolator which is optimal in the class of linear interpolators based on that process which is one when the original process is positive and minus one when it is negative. Sufficient conditions for the interpolator to be a convolution of the sign process and a square integrable function are given. Analytical expressions of the interpolation error are derived, and the behaviour of the interpolator is studied by means of simulations.

For a sequence of finite state space birth–death processes, each having a single absorbing state, we show that, under certain conditions, as the size of the state space tends to infinity, the quasistationary distributions converge to the stationary distribution of a limiting infinite state space birth–death process. This generalizes a result of Keilson and Ramaswamy by allowing birth and death rates to depend upon the size of the state space. We give sufficient conditions under which the convergence result of Keilson and Ramaswamy remains valid. The generalization allows us to apply our convergence result to examples from population biology: a Pearl–Verhulst logistic population growth model and the susceptible-infective-susceptible (SIS) model for infectious spread. The limit distributions obtained suggest new finite-population approximations to the quasistationary distributions of these models, obtained by the method of cumulant closure. The new approximations are found to be both simple in form and accurate.

We analyze the unit-demand Euclidean vehicle routeing problem, where n customers are modeled as independent, identically distributed uniform points and have unit demand. We show new lower bounds on the optimal cost for the metric vehicle routeing problem and analyze them in this setting. We prove that there exists a constant ĉ > 0 such that the iterated tour partitioning heuristic given by Haimovich and Rinnooy Kan (1985) is a (2 - ĉ)-approximation algorithm with probability arbitrarily close to 1 as the number of customers goes to ∞. It has been a longstanding open problem as to whether one can improve upon the factor of 2 given by Haimovich and Rinnooy Kan. We also generalize this, and previous results, to the multidepot case.

We consider the level hitting times τy = inf{t ≥ 0 | Xt = y} and the running maximum process Mt = sup{Xs | 0 ≤ s ≤ t} of a growth-collapse process (Xt)t≥0, defined as a [0, ∞)-valued Markov process that grows linearly between random ‘collapse’ times at which downward jumps with state-dependent distributions occur. We show how the moments and the Laplace transform of τy can be determined in terms of the extended generator of Xt and give a power series expansion of the reciprocal of Ee−sτy. We prove asymptotic results for τy and Mt: for example, if m(y) = Eτy is of rapid variation then Mt / m-1(t) →w 1 as t → ∞, where m-1 is the inverse function of m, while if m(y) is of regular variation with index a ∈ (0, ∞) and Xt is ergodic, then Mt / m-1(t) converges weakly to a Fréchet distribution with exponent a. In several special cases we provide explicit formulae.

In this paper we consider a diffusive stochastic predator–prey model with a nonlinear functional response and the randomness is assumed to be of Gaussian nature. A large deviation principle is established for solution processes of the considered model by implementing the weak convergence technique.

We provide bounds for perpetual American option prices in a jump diffusion model in terms of American option prices in the standard Black–Scholes model. We also investigate the dependence of the bounds on different parameters of the model.

In this article we show the asymptotics of distribution and moments of the size Xn of the minimal clade of a randomly chosen individual in a Bolthausen-Sznitman n-coalescent for n → ∞. The Bolthausen-Sznitman n-coalescent is a Markov process taking states in the set of partitions of {1, …, n}, where 1, …, n are referred to as individuals. The minimal clade of an individual is the equivalence class the individual is in at the time of the first coalescence event this individual participates in. We also provide exact formulae for the distribution of Xn. The main tool used is the connection of the Bolthausen-Sznitman n-coalescent with random recursive trees introduced by Goldschmidt and Martin (2005). With it, we show that Xn - 1 is distributed as the size of a uniformly chosen table in a standard Chinese restaurant process with n - 1 customers.

For an order statistic (X1:n,…,Xn:n) of a collection of independent but not necessarily identically distributed random variables, and any i ∈ {1,…,n}, the conditional distribution of (Xi+1:n,…,Xn:n) given Xi:n > s is shown to be stochastically increasing in s. This answers a question by Hu and Xie (2006).

In this paper we focus on the problem of the degree sequence for a random graph process with edge deletion. We prove that, while a specific parameter varies, the limit degree distribution of the model exhibits critical phenomenon.

We consider long-run averages of additive functionals on infinite discrete-state Markov chains, either continuous or discrete in time. Special cases include long-run average costs or rewards, stationary moments of the components of ergodic multi-dimensional Markov chains, queueing network performance measures, and many others. By exploiting Foster-Lyapunov-type criteria involving drift conditions for the finiteness of long-run averages we determine suitable finite subsets of the state space such that the truncation error is bounded. Illustrative examples demonstrate the application of this method.

Bizarrely shaped voting districts are frequently lambasted as likely instances of gerrymandering. In order to systematically identify such instances, researchers have devised several tests for so-called geographic compactness (i.e. shape niceness). We demonstrate that under certain conditions, a party can gerrymander a competitive state into geographically compact districts to win an average of over 70% of the districts. Our results suggest that geometric features alone may fail to adequately combat partisan gerrymandering.

The multitype Galton-Watson process is considered both with and without immigration. Proofs are given for the existence of invariant measures and their uniqueness is examined by functional equation methods. Theorem 2.1 proves the uniqueness, under certain conditions, of solutions of a multidimensional Schröder equation. Regular variation is shown to play a role in the multitype theory.