A series of papers by Hickey (1982, 1983, 1984) presents a stochastic ordering based on randomness. This paper extends the results by introducing a novel methodology to derive models that preserve stochastic ordering based on randomness. We achieve this by presenting a new family of pseudometric spaces based on a majorization property. This class of pseudometrics provides a new methodology for deriving the randomness measure of a random variable. Using this, the paper introduces the Gini randomness measure and states its essential properties. We demonstrate that the proposed measure has certain advantages over entropy measures. The measure satisfies the value validity property, provides an adequate extension to continuous random variables, and is often more appropriate (based on sensitivity) than entropy in various scenarios.

Random bridges have gained significant attention in recent years due to their potential applications in various areas, particularly in information-based asset pricing models. This paper aims to explore the potential influence of the pinning point’s distribution on the memorylessness and stochastic dynamics of the bridge process. We introduce Lévy bridges with random length and random pinning points, and analyze their Markov property. Our study demonstrates that the Markov property of Lévy bridges depends on the nature of the distribution of their pinning points. The law of any random variables can be decomposed into singular continuous, discrete, and absolutely continuous parts with respect to the Lebesgue measure (Lebesgue’s decomposition theorem). We show that the Markov property holds when the pinning points’ law does not have an absolutely continuous part. Conversely, the Lévy bridge fails to exhibit Markovian behavior when the pinning point has an absolutely continuous part.

We consider the following problem: the drift of the wealth process of two companies, modelled by a two-dimensional Brownian motion, is controllable such that the total drift adds up to a constant. The aim is to maximize the probability that both companies survive. We assume that the volatility of one company is small with respect to the other, and use methods from singular perturbation theory to construct a formal approximation of the value function. Moreover, we validate this formal result by explicitly constructing a strategy that provides a target functional, approximating the value function uniformly on the whole state space.

We consider an $\mathrm{M}/\mathrm{G}/\infty$ queue with infinite expected service time. We then provide the transience/recurrence classification of the states (the system is said to be at state n if there are n customers being served), observing also that here (unlike irreducible Markov chains, for example) it is possible for recurrent and transient states to coexist. We also prove a lower bound on the growth speed in the transient case.

We determine the order of the k-core in a large class of dense graph sequences. Let $G_n$ be a sequence of undirected, n-vertex graphs with edge weights $\{a^n_{i,j}\}_{i,j \in [n]}$ that converges to a graphon $W\colon[0,1]^2 \to [0,+\infty)$ in the cut metric. Keeping an edge (i,j) of $G_n$ with probability ${a^n_{i,j}}/{n}$ independently, we obtain a sequence of random graphs $G_n({1}/{n})$. Using a branching process and the theory of dense graph limits, under mild assumptions we obtain the order of the k-core of random graphs $G_n({1}/{n})$. Our result can also be used to obtain the threshold of appearance of a k-core of order n.

We are interested in the law of the first passage time of an Ornstein–Uhlenbeck process to time-varying thresholds. We show that this problem is connected to the laws of the first passage time of the process to members of a two-parameter family of functional transformations of a time-varying boundary. For specific values of the parameters, these transformations appear in a realisation of a standard Ornstein–Uhlenbeck bridge. We provide three different proofs of this connection. The first is based on a similar result for Brownian motion, the second uses a generalisation of the so-called Gauss–Markov processes, and the third relies on the Lie group symmetry method. We investigate the properties of these transformations and study the algebraic and analytical properties of an involution operator which is used in constructing them. We also show that these transformations map the space of solutions of Sturm–Liouville equations into the space of solutions of the associated nonlinear ordinary differential equations. Lastly, we interpret our results through the method of images and give new examples of curves with explicit first passage time densities.

We consider continuous-state branching processes (CB processes) which become extinct almost surely. First, we tackle the problem of describing the stationary measures on $(0,+\infty)$ for such CB processes. We give a representation of the stationary measure in terms of scale functions of related Lévy processes. Then we prove that the stationary measure can be obtained from the vague limit of the potential measure, and, in the critical case, can also be obtained from the vague limit of a normalized transition probability. Next, we prove some limit theorems for the CB process conditioned on extinction in a near future and on extinction at a fixed time. We obtain non-degenerate limit distributions which are of the size-biased type of the stationary measure in the critical case and of the Yaglom distribution in the subcritical case. Finally we explore some further properties of the limit distributions.

A numerical method is proposed for a class of one-dimensional stochastic control problems with unbounded state space. This method solves an infinite-dimensional linear program, equivalent to the original formulation based on a stochastic differential equation, using a finite element approximation. The discretization scheme itself and the necessary assumptions are discussed, and a convergence argument for the method is presented. Its performance is illustrated by examples featuring long-term average and infinite horizon discounted costs, and additional optimization constraints.

We investigate some aspects of the problem of the estimation of birth distributions (BDs) in multi-type Galton–Watson trees (MGWs) with unobserved types. More precisely, we consider two-type MGWs called spinal-structured trees. This kind of tree is characterized by a spine of special individuals whose BD $\nu$ is different from the other individuals in the tree (called normal, and whose BD is denoted by $\mu$). In this work, we show that even in such a very structured two-type population, our ability to distinguish the two types and estimate $\mu$ and $\nu$ is constrained by a trade-off between the growth-rate of the population and the similarity of $\mu$ and $\nu$. Indeed, if the growth-rate is too large, large deviation events are likely to be observed in the sampling of the normal individuals, preventing us from distinguishing them from special ones. Roughly speaking, our approach succeeds if $r\lt \mathfrak{D}(\mu,\nu)$, where r is the exponential growth-rate of the population and $\mathfrak{D}$ is a divergence measuring the dissimilarity between $\mu$ and $\nu$.

We propose a monotone approximation scheme for a class of fully nonlinear degenerate partial integro-differential equations which characterize nonlinear $\alpha$-stable Lévy processes under a sublinear expectation space with $\alpha\in(1,2)$. We further establish the error bounds for the monotone approximation scheme. This in turn yields an explicit Berry–Esseen bound and convergence rate for the $\alpha$-stable central limit theorem under sublinear expectation.

In this paper we consider the workload of a storage system with the unconventional feature that the arrival times, rather than the interarrival times, are independent and identically distributed samples from a given distribution. We start by analyzing the ‘base model’ in which the arrival times are exponentially distributed, leading to a closed-form characterization of the queue’s workload at a given moment in time (i.e. in terms of Laplace–Stieltjes transforms), assuming the initial workload was 0. Then we consider four more general models, each of them having a specific additional feature: (a) the initial workload being allowed to have any arbitrary non-negative value, (b) an additional stream of Poisson arrivals, (c) phase-type arrival times, (d) balking customers. For all four variants the transform of the transient workload is identified in closed form.

Novel prediction methods should always be compared to a baseline to determine their performance. Without this frame of reference, the performance score of a model is basically meaningless. What does it mean when a model achieves an $F_1$ of 0.8 on a test set? A proper baseline is, therefore, required to evaluate the ‘goodness’ of a performance score. Comparing results with the latest state-of-the-art model is usually insightful. However, being state-of-the-art is dynamic, as newer models are continuously developed. Contrary to an advanced model, it is also possible to use a simple dummy classifier. However, the latter model could be beaten too easily, making the comparison less valuable. Furthermore, most existing baselines are stochastic and need to be computed repeatedly to get a reliable expected performance, which could be computationally expensive. We present a universal baseline method for all binary classification models, named the Dutch Draw (DD). This approach weighs simple classifiers and determines the best classifier to use as a baseline. Theoretically, we derive the DD baseline for many commonly used evaluation measures and show that in most situations it reduces to (almost) always predicting either zero or one. Summarizing, the DD baseline is general, as it is applicable to any binary classification problem; simple, as it can be quickly determined without training or parameter tuning; and informative, as insightful conclusions can be drawn from the results. The DD baseline serves two purposes. First, it is a robust and universal baseline that enables comparisons across research papers. Second, it provides a sanity check during the prediction model’s development process. When a model does not outperform the DD baseline, it is a major warning sign.

We review criteria for comparing the efficiency of Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods with respect to the asymptotic variance of estimates of expectations of functions of state, and show how such criteria can justify ways of combining improvements to MCMC methods. We say that a chain on a finite state space with transition matrix P efficiency-dominates one with transition matrix Q if for every function of state it has lower (or equal) asymptotic variance. We give elementary proofs of some previous results regarding efficiency dominance, leading to a self-contained demonstration that a reversible chain with transition matrix P efficiency-dominates a reversible chain with transition matrix Q if and only if none of the eigenvalues of $Q-P$ are negative. This allows us to conclude that modifying a reversible MCMC method to improve its efficiency will also improve the efficiency of a method that randomly chooses either this or some other reversible method, and to conclude that improving the efficiency of a reversible update for one component of state (as in Gibbs sampling) will improve the overall efficiency of a reversible method that combines this and other updates. It also explains how antithetic MCMC can be more efficient than independent and identically distributed sampling. We also establish conditions that can guarantee that a method is not efficiency-dominated by any other method.

We consider two continuous-time generalizations of conservative random walks introduced in Englander and Volkov (2022), an orthogonal and a spherically symmetrical one; the latter model is also known as random flights. For both models, we show the transience of the walks when $d\ge 2$ and that the rate of direction changing follows a power law $t^{-\alpha}$, $0<\alpha\le 1$, or the law $(\!\ln t)^{-\beta}$ where $\beta>2$.

The system signature is a useful tool for studying coherent systems. For a given coherent system, various methods have been proposed in the literature to compute its signature. However, when any system signature is given, the literature does not address how to construct the corresponding coherent system(s). In this article we propose an algorithm to address this research gap. This algorithm enables the validation of whether a provided probability vector qualifies as a signature. If it does, the algorithm proceeds to generate the corresponding coherent system(s). To illustrate the applicability of this algorithm, we consider all three and four-dimensional probability vectors, verify if they are signatures, and finally obtain 5 and 20 coherent systems, respectively, which coincides with the literature (Shaked and Suarez-Llorens 2003).

Previous approaches to modelling interval-censored data have often relied on assumptions of homogeneity in the sense that the censoring mechanism, the underlying distribution of occurrence times, or both, are assumed to be time-invariant. In this work, we introduce a model which allows for non-homogeneous behaviour in both cases. In particular, we outline a censoring mechanism based on a non-homogeneous alternating renewal process in which interval generation is assumed to be time-dependent, and we propose a Markov point process model for the underlying occurrence time distribution. We prove the existence of this process and derive the conditional distribution of the occurrence times given the intervals. We provide a framework within which the process can be accurately modelled, and subsequently compare our model to the homogeneous approach through a number of illustrative examples.

We propose a method for cutting down a random recursive tree that focuses on its higher-degree vertices. Enumerate the vertices of a random recursive tree of size n according to the decreasing order of their degrees; namely, let $(v^{(i)})_{i=1}^{n}$ be such that $\deg(v^{(1)}) \geq \cdots \geq \deg (v^{(n)})$. The targeted vertex-cutting process is performed by sequentially removing vertices $v^{(1)}, v^{(2)}, \ldots, v^{(n)}$ and keeping only the subtree containing the root after each removal. The algorithm ends when the root is picked to be removed. The total number of steps for this procedure, $K_n$, is upper bounded by $Z_{\geq D}$, which denotes the number of vertices that have degree at least as large as the degree of the root. We prove that $\ln Z_{\geq D}$ grows as $\ln n$ asymptotically and obtain its limiting behavior in probability. Moreover, we obtain that the kth moment of $\ln Z_{\geq D}$ is proportional to $(\!\ln n)^k$. As a consequence, we obtain that the first-order growth of $K_n$ is upper bounded by $n^{1-\ln 2}$, which is substantially smaller than the required number of removals if, instead, the vertices were selected uniformly at random.

We present and study a novel algorithm for the computation of 2-Wasserstein population barycenters of absolutely continuous probability measures on Euclidean space. The proposed method can be seen as a stochastic gradient descent procedure in the 2-Wasserstein space, as well as a manifestation of a law of large numbers therein. The algorithm aims to find a Karcher mean or critical point in this setting, and can be implemented ‘online’, sequentially using independent and identically distributed random measures sampled from the population law. We provide natural sufficient conditions for this algorithm to almost surely converge in the Wasserstein space towards the population barycenter, and we introduce a novel, general condition which ensures uniqueness of Karcher means and, moreover, allows us to obtain explicit, parametric convergence rates for the expected optimality gap. We also study the mini-batch version of this algorithm, and discuss examples of families of population laws to which our method and results can be applied. This work expands and deepens ideas and results introduced in an early version of Backhoff-Veraguas et al. (2022), in which a statistical application (and numerical implementation) of this method is developed in the context of Bayesian learning.

We consider the estimation of rare-event probabilities using sample proportions output by naive Monte Carlo or collected data. Unlike using variance reduction techniques, this naive estimator does not have an a priori relative efficiency guarantee. On the other hand, due to the recent surge of sophisticated rare-event problems arising in safety evaluations of intelligent systems, efficiency-guaranteed variance reduction may face implementation challenges which, coupled with the availability of computation or data collection power, motivate the use of such a naive estimator. In this paper we study the uncertainty quantification, namely the construction, coverage validity, and tightness of confidence intervals, for rare-event probabilities using only sample proportions. In addition to the known normality, Wilson, and exact intervals, we investigate and compare them with two new intervals derived from Chernoff’s inequality and the Berry–Esseen theorem. Moreover, we generalize our results to the natural situation where sampling stops by reaching a target number of rare-event hits. Our findings show that the normality and Wilson intervals are not always valid, but they are close to the newly developed valid intervals in terms of half-width. In contrast, the exact interval is conservative, but safely guarantees the attainment of the nominal confidence level. Our new intervals, while being more conservative than the exact interval, provide useful insights into understanding the tightness of the considered intervals.

The binary contact path process (BCPP) introduced in Griffeath (1983) describes the spread of an epidemic on a graph and is an auxiliary model in the study of improving upper bounds of the critical value of the contact process. In this paper, we are concerned with limit theorems of the occupation time of a normalized version of the BCPP (NBCPP) on a lattice. We first show that the law of large numbers of the occupation time process is driven by the identity function when the dimension of the lattice is at least 3 and the infection rate of the model is sufficiently large conditioned on the initial state of the NBCPP being distributed with a particular invariant distribution. Then we show that the centered occupation time process of the NBCPP converges in finite-dimensional distributions to a Brownian motion when the dimension of the lattice and the infection rate of the model are sufficiently large and the initial state of the NBCPP is distributed with the aforementioned invariant distribution.