Outbreaks of acute haemorrhagic conjunctivitis (AHC) – a rapidly progressing and highly contagious infection – often occur in schools during summer and autumn. We used dynamic modelling to evaluate the efficacy of interventions to control AHC outbreaks in schools. A susceptible-infected-recovered (SIR) model was built to simulate AHC outbreaks in Chinese schools, with isolation or school closure added into the model. We used outbreak data from the period 2004–2015 in our models to estimate the effective reproduction number and assess the efficacy of interventions. The median effective reproduction number (uncontrolled) of AHC outbreaks was 7·00 (range 1·77–25·87). The median effective reproduction number (controlled) of AHC outbreaks was 0·16 (range 0·00–2·28). Intervention efficacy is affected by the timing of isolation; earlier isolation is associated with a lower morbidity peak and smaller total attack rate (TAR). School closures were not effective; TARs were almost 100% and did not change even when different school closure durations were adopted. Isolation and school closure as a combined intervention strategy was used to simulate outbreak control, but the efficacy was the same as isolation alone. An isolation programme could be an effective primary intervention during AHC outbreaks in schools. However, school closure is not recommended.

Determination of the proportion of bovine tuberculosis (bTB) breakdowns attributed to a herd purchasing infected animals has not been previously quantified using data from the Animal and Public Health Information System (APHIS) database in Northern Ireland. We used a case–control study design to account for the infection process occurring in the disclosing bTB breakdown herds. Cases (N = 6926) were cattle moving to a future confirmed bTB breakdown where they would disclose as a confirmed bTB reactor or a Lesion at Routine Slaughter (LRS). Controls (N = 303 499) were cattle moving to a future confirmed bTB breakdown where they did not become a bTB reactor or LRS. Our study showed that the cattle leaving herds which disclosed bTB within 450 days had an increased odds of becoming a confirmed bTB reactor or LRS compared with the cattle which left herds that remained free for 450 days (odds ratio (OR) = 2·09: 95% CI 1·96–2·22). Of the 12 060 confirmed bTB breakdowns included in our study (2007–2015 inclusive), 31% (95% CI 29·8–31·5) contained a confirmed bTB reactor(s) or LRS(s) at the disclosing test which entered the herd within the previous 450 days. After controlling for the infection process occurring in the disclosing bTB breakdown herd, our study showed that 6·4% (95% CI 5·9–6·8) of bTB breakdowns in Northern Ireland were directly attributable to the movement of infected animals.

Hepatitis E virus (HEV) infection is a major cause of acute hepatitis worldwide. This infection causes major water-borne outbreaks in low- and middle-income countries, whilst in industrialised countries this infection is zoonotic. These differences in epidemiology are related to different HEV genotypes. HEV genotype 3 is a zoonotic infection, whilst genotype 2 causes large outbreaks. This study determined the seroprevalence of HEV in blood donors from the Western Cape. Anti-hepatitis A virus (anti-HAV) antibody was detected in 184/300 (61%) donors. Antibody to HEV (anti-HEV) was detected in 78 of 300 donors (26%). It was highest in mixed race donors (62/100), followed by white donors (23/100) and lowest in black donors (19/100) P = 0.019. Since it is thought that genotypes 1 and 2 predominate both viruses would be acquired by the oro-faecal route, it is surprising that HEV seroprevalence does not mirror that of HAV. We postulate that this may reflect differences in socio-economic status and consumption of dietary meat. So the marked divergence between HEV and HAV seroprevalence may be the result of different routes of transmission. Further data are needed to explore the risk factors associated with HEV infection.

Ureaplasma urealyticum and U. parvum have been associated with genital infections. The purpose of this study was to detect the presence of ureaplasmas and other sexually transmitted infections in sexually active women from Brazil and relate these data to demographic and sexual health, and cytokines IL-6 and IL-1β. Samples of cervical swab of 302 women were examined at the Family Health Units in Vitória da Conquista. The frequency of detection by conventional PCR was 76·2% for Mollicutes. In qPCR, the frequency found was 16·6% for U. urealyticum and 60·6% U. parvum and the bacterial load of these microorganisms was not significantly associated with signs and symptoms of genital infection. The frequency found for Trichomonas vaginalis, Neisseria gonorrhoeae, Gardnerella vaginalis and Chlamydia trachomatis was 3·0%, 21·5%, 42·4% and 1·7%, respectively. Higher levels of IL-1β were associated with control women colonized by U. urealyticum and U. parvum. Increased levels of IL-6 were associated with women who exhibited U. parvum. Sexually active women, with more than one sexual partner in the last 3 months, living in a rural area were associated with increased odds of certain U. parvum serovar infection.

Mother-to-child transmission (MTCT) is the leading cause of paediatric HIV-infection in Israel. This study aimed to assess MTCT rates and analyse temporal changes in relation to highly active antiretroviral therapy (HAART) introduction in 1996. This historical prospective study included all HIV-infected women who delivered in Israel between 1988 and 2011. Demographic, clinical, laboratory and therapy characteristics were compared between HIV-infected newborns with all others, and between infants born before and after 1996. Of all 796 infants born in Israel to HIV-infected women, 25 (3·1%) were infected. MTCT rates decreased significantly after HAART introduction compared with infants who were born before 1996 (16·3% vs. 1·7%). Mothers who infected vertically were more likely to be younger, Ethiopian-born, delivered trans-vaginally, not treated with HAART during pregnancy/labour and delivered before 1996 compared with mothers who did not transmit the HIV to their neonates. Newborns who did not receive antiretroviral therapy postpartum were more commonly HIV-infected and their mortality rate was higher. In conclusion, HAART during pregnancy/labour decreased MTCT significantly. Most MTCT in Israel was recorded among Ethiopian migrants, yet, in decreasing rates. Continuous efforts should be employed to encourage early HIV testing and allow effective HAART to pregnant women who belong to a key risk-group.

Tick-borne encephalitis is a serious arboviral infection with unstable dynamics and profound inter-annual fluctuations in case numbers. A dependable predictive model has been sought since the discovery of the disease. The present study demonstrates that four superimposed cycles, approximately 2·4, 3, 5·4, and 10·4 years long, can account for three-fifths of the variation in the disease fluctuations over central Europe. Using harmonic regression, these cycles can be projected into the future, yielding forecasts of sufficient accuracy for up to 4 years ahead. For the years 2016–2018, this model predicts elevated incidence levels in most parts of the region.

Although high hepatitis C virus (HCV) prevalence has been observed in people who inject drugs (PWID) for decades, research suggests incidence is falling. We examined whether PWIDs’ use of opioid substitution therapy (OST) and their needle-and-syringe sharing behaviour explained HCV incidence. We assessed HCV incidence in 235 PWID in Melbourne, Australia, and performed discrete-time survival with needle-sharing and OST status as independent variables. HCV infection, reinfection and combined infection/reinfection incidences were 7·6 [95% confidence interval (CI) 4·8–11·9], 12·4 (95% CI 9·1–17·0) and 9·7 (95% CI 7·4–12·6) per 100 person-years, respectively. Needle-sharing was significantly associated with higher incidence of naive HCV infection [hazard ratio (HR) 4·9, 95% CI 1·3–17·7] but not reinfection (HR 1·85, 95% CI 0·79–4·32); however, a cross-model test suggested this difference was sample specific. Past month use of OST had non-significant protective effects against naive HCV infection and reinfection. Our data confirm previous evidence of greatly reduced HCV incidence in PWID, but not the significant protective effect of OST on HCV incidence detected in recent studies. Our findings reinforce the need for greater access to HCV testing and prevention services to accelerate the decline in incidence, and HCV treatment, management and support to limit reinfection.

Few studies have examined the impact of cigarette smoking on the risk for herpes zoster. The Shozu Herpes Zoster (SHEZ) Study is a community-based prospective cohort study over 3 years in Japan aiming to clarify the incidence and predictive and immunological factors for herpes zoster. We investigated the associations of smoking status with past history and incidence of herpes zoster. A total of 12 351 participants provided valid information on smoking status and past history of herpes zoster at baseline survey. Smoking status was classified into three categories (current, former, never smoker), and if currently smoking, the number of cigarettes consumed per day was recorded. The participants were under the active surveillance for first-ever incident herpes zoster for 3 years. We used a logistic regression model for the cross-sectional study on the association between smoking status and past history of herpes zoster, and a Cox proportional hazards regression model for the cohort study on the association with risk of incidence. The multivariable adjusted odd ratios (95% CI) of past history of herpes zoster for current vs. never smokers were 0·67 (0·54–0·80) for total subjects, 0·72 (0·56–0·93) for men and 0·65 (0·44–0·96) for women. The multivariable adjusted hazard ratios (95% CI) of incident herpes zoster for current vs. never smokers were 0·52 (0·33–0·81) for total subjects, 0·49 (0·29–0·83) for men and 0·52 (0·19–1·39) for women. Smoking status was inversely associated with the prevalence and incidence of herpes zoster in the general population of men and women aged ⩾50 years.

In Norway, no published data on seroprevalence of hepatitis E virus (HEV) in humans and swine exists. Serum samples from blood donors, veterinarians, swine farm workers and swine were analysed by ELISA to estimate the seroprevalence of HEV in Norway and to investigate the association between direct contact with swine and HEV seroprevalence in humans. The seroprevalence of HEV IgG antibodies was 30% (24/79) in farm workers, 13% (21/163) in veterinarians, 14% (162/1200) in blood donors and 90% (137/153) in swine. Our results show a high seroprevalence of HEV in humans and swine in Norway. HEV seroprevalence in farm workers and blood donors increased with age, and veterinarians working with swine were twice as likely to be HEV seropositive compared to other veterinarians. High HEV seroprevalence in farm workers and veterinarians working with swine support previous reports suggesting swine as a reservoir for HEV infections in humans in Europe.

Central line-associated bloodstream infections (CLABSIs) in intensive care units (ICUs) result in poor clinical outcomes and increased costs. Although frequently regarded as preventable, infection risk may be influenced by non-modifiable factors. The objectives of this study were to evaluate organisational factors associated with CLABSI in Victorian ICUs to determine the nature and relative contribution of modifiable and non-modifiable risk factors. Data captured by the Australian and New Zealand Intensive Care Society regarding ICU-admitted patients and resources were linked to CLABSI surveillance data collated by the Victorian Healthcare Associated Infection Surveillance System between 1 January 2010 and 31 December 2013. Accepted CLABSI surveillance methods were applied and hospital/patient characteristics were classified as ‘modifiable’ and ‘non-modifiable’, enabling longitudinal Poisson regression modelling of CLABSI risk. In total, 26 ICUs were studied. Annual CLABSI rates were 1·72, 1·37, 1·00 and 0·93/1000 CVC days for 2010–2013. Of non-modifiable factors, the number of non-invasively ventilated patients standardised to total ICU bed days was found to be independently associated with infection (RR 1·07; 95% CI 1·01–1·13; P = 0·030). Modelling of modifiable risk factors demonstrated the existence of a policy for mandatory ultrasound guidance for central venous catheter (CVC) localisation (RR 0·51; 95% CI 0·37–0·70; P < 0·001) and increased number of sessional specialist full-time equivalents (RR 0·52; 95% CI 0·29–0·93; P = 0·027) to be independently associated with protection against infection. Modifiable factors associated with reduced CLABSI risk include ultrasound guidance for CVC localisation and increased availability of sessional medical specialists.

Clostridium difficile is the principal cause of infectious diarrhoea in hospitalized patients. We investigated the incidence and risk factors for hospitalization due to C. difficile infection (CDI) in older Australians. We linked data from a population-based prospective cohort study (the 45 and Up Study) of 266 922 adults aged ⩾45 years recruited in New South Wales, Australia to hospitalization and death records for 2006–2012. We estimated the incidence of CDI hospitalization and calculated days in hospital and costs per hospitalization. We also estimated hazard ratios (HR) for CDI hospitalization using Cox regression with age as the underlying time variable. Over a total follow-up of 1 126 708 person-years, 187 adults had an incident CDI hospitalization. The crude incidence of CDI hospitalization was 16·6/100 000 person-years, with a median hospital stay of 6 days, and a median cost of AUD 6102 per admission. Incidence increased with age and year of follow-up, with a threefold increase for 2009–2012. After adjustment, CDI hospitalization rates were significantly lower in males than females (adjusted HR 0·6, 95% confidence interval 0·4–0·7). CDI hospitalization rates increased significantly over 2009–2012. There is a need to better understand the increasing risk of CDI hospitalization in women.

Campylobacter spp. is a commonly reported food-borne disease with major consequences for morbidity. In conjunction with predicted increases in temperature, proliferation in the survival of microorganisms in hotter environments is expected. This is likely to lead, in turn, to an increase in contamination of food and water and a rise in numbers of cases of infectious gastroenteritis. This study assessed the relationship of Campylobacter spp. with temperature and heatwaves, in Adelaide, South Australia.

We estimated the effect of (i) maximum temperature and (ii) heatwaves on daily Campylobacter cases during the warm seasons (1 October to 31 March) from 1990 to 2012 using Poisson regression models.

There was no evidence of a substantive effect of maximum temperature per 1 °C rise (incidence rate ratio (IRR) 0·995, 95% confidence interval (95% CI) 0·993–0·997) nor heatwaves (IRR 0·906, 95% CI 0·800–1·026) on Campylobacter cases. In relation to heatwave intensity, which is the daily maximum temperature during a heatwave, notifications decreased by 19% within a temperature range of 39–40·9 °C (IRR 0·811, 95% CI 0·692–0·952). We found little evidence of an increase in risk and lack of association between Campylobacter cases and temperature or heatwaves in the warm seasons. Heatwave intensity may play a role in that notifications decreased with higher temperatures. Further examination of the role of behavioural and environmental factors in an effort to reduce the risk of increased Campylobacter cases is warranted.

Changes in respiratory pathogen testing can affect disease burden estimates. Using linked data, we describe changes in respiratory virus testing among children born in Western Australia in 1996–2012. We extracted data on respiratory specimens from these children from birth to age 9 years. We estimated testing rates by age, year, Aboriginal status and geographical location. Predictors of testing among children hospitalised at least once before their 10th birthday were identified using logistic regression. We compared detection methods for respiratory viruses from nasal/nasopharyngeal (NP) specimens by age and year. Of 83 199 virology testing records in 2000–2012, 80% were nasal/NP specimens. Infants aged <1 month had the highest testing rates. Testing rates in all children increased over the study period with considerable yearly fluctuations. Among hospitalised children, premature children <32 weeks gestation had over three times the odds of being tested (95% CI 3·47–4·13) than those born at term. Testing using molecular methods increased from 5% to 87% over the study period. Proportion of positive samples increased from 36·3% to 44·4% (P < 0·01); this change was greatest in children aged 2–9 years. These findings will assist in interpreting results from future epidemiology studies assessing the pathogen-specific burden of disease.

ESBL-producing Enterobacteriaceae and particularly Escherichia coli ST131 isolates producing CTX-M enzymes are commonly found colonizing the intestine of nursing home (NH) residents, but ST131 subclonal structure has been scarcely explored in this vulnerable population. Our goal was to perform a pilot study to assess the faecal carriage rate and epidemiological features of ESBL- and/or carbapenemase-producing Enterobacteriaceae (ESBL-E and CPE, respectively) among NH residents. For this purpose, faecal samples from residents at 4 different NHs in the North of Portugal (representing 9·5% of the residents’ population, July 2014) were screened for ESBL-E and/or CPE by phenotypic and genotypic methods. Clonal structure and plasmid typing of ESBL-producing E. coli (ESBL-Ec) was performed by PCR and sequencing. Four ESBL-Ec isolates (2 CTX-M-15/2 CTX-M-14) were found in 20% of the samples, all belonging to the pandemic clonal lineage B2-ST131-O25b:H4. Two different clades were identified, the C2/H30-Rx-virotype C producing CTX-M-15 and an atypical B/H22-like-virotype D5 (producing CTX-M-14 and fluoroquinolone-resistant), firstly described in Portugal. This pilot study highlights the role of NH residents as a source of different ST131 clades, besides emphasizing the importance of E. coli B2-ST131 subtyping in different clinical settings, and understanding the transmission dynamics of the different variants.

Cytomegalovirus (CMV) infection remains the leading cause of congenital virus infection in developed countries. Measuring the national prevalence of this infection, especially among women of childbearing age, is of great value to estimate the risk of congenital CMV infection, as well as to identify risk groups that should be targeted for behavioural interventions and/or vaccination once a CMV vaccine finally becomes available. In order to fulfil these objectives, a seroprevalence survey was conducted in 2010, using a nationally representative, population-based sample of 2536 people aged between 15 and 49 years, living in metropolitan France and attending private microbiological laboratories for blood testing. All blood samples were analysed in the same laboratory and screened for CMV-specific IgG using an enzyme-linked immunoassay technique (Elisa PKS Medac Enzyme immunoassay). The overall point estimate of CMV infection seroprevalence for individuals aged 15–49 years was 41.9%. The estimates were higher in women than in men (respectively 45.6% and 39.3%), and people born in a non-Western country were more likely to be CMV seropositive than those born in France or in another Western country (93.7% vs. 37.7%). Our results showed that a substantial percentage of women of childbearing age in France are CMV seronegative and therefore at risk of primary CMV infection during pregnancy. Educational measures and future vaccine are key issues to prevent infection in pregnant women and congenital CMV disease.

The number of South American camelids (SACs) in England and Wales is increasing and with this comes a risk of new and emerging infections. Although classified as livestock, these animals are also treated as pets and may be in regular contact with humans. This paper reviews zoonotic diseases that have been identified in SACs in England and Wales, and which pose a potential risk to human health. We also highlight the importance of surveillance continuing to capture information on infections in SACs for the protection of both public and animal health.

This study compared the antimicrobial susceptibility and genotypes of strains of Neisseria gonorrhoeae isolated from men who have sex with men (MSM) and from heterosexuals. One hundred and eleven strains were characterized from 107 patients, comprising 57 strains from 54 heterosexuals and 54 strains from 53 MSM. Antimicrobial resistance rates were higher in strains from heterosexual patients, with resistance to cefixime (P = 0·0159) and ciprofloxacin (P = 0·002) being significantly higher. Typing by N. gonorrhoeae multi-antigen sequence typing (NG-MAST) showed that the most prevalent sequence types (ST) and genogroups (G) respectively were ST2400, ST2992, and ST5793, and G1407, G2992, and G2400. A statistically significant association was observed for MSM and genogroups G2400 (P = 0·0005) and G2992 (P = 0·0488), and G1407 with heterosexuals (P = 0·0002). We conclude that in our region distinct populations of gonococci are circulating among subjects with different sexual practices, with their corresponding transmission patterns. Furthermore, the high prevalence of genotype G2400 in MSM, has not to our knowledge been previously described.

We estimated the number of people unaware of their human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) infection in our province, Pavia (population 540 000) in Lombardy, Italy, by means of anonymous unlinked testing of 10 044 serum/plasma samples residual from clinical analyses at the outpatient clinic of Policlinico San Matteo in 2014 and 2015. Ethical and legal approval was obtained prior to study start. Samples were irreversibly anonymised, only retaining gender and 5-year age class. Five sample pools were tested for HIV using LIAISON® XL MUREX HIV Ab/Ag (DiaSorin, Saluggia, Italy). If the pool tested positive, individual samples underwent confirmatory tests, Innotest HIV Antigen mAb (Fujirebio Europe, Gent, Belgium) and HIV BLOT 2·2 (MP Diagnostics, Singapore). Among the 10 044 samples processed, eight were confirmed positive (0·08%, 95% confidence interval 0·03–0·16%), all were males and age was >50 in 3 (37·5%). If projected to the entire population of the Pavia province, this would result in approximately 1000 people unaware of their HIV infection, with age older than expected. In Italy, HIV testing is voluntary, universally free-of-charge and (upon request) anonymous. Nevertheless, this study demonstrates that it is suboptimally employed, and that new strategies and population-level actions will be needed to achieve better implementation of HIV testing and HIV control in our province.

The overall incidence of spinal tuberculosis (TB) appears to be stable or declining in most European countries, but with an increasing proportion of cases in the foreign-born populations. We performed a retrospective observational study (1993–2014), including all cases of spinal TB diagnosed at a Barcelona hospital to assess the epidemiological changes. Fifty-four episodes (48·1% males, median age 52 years) of spinal TB were diagnosed. The percentage of foreign-born residents with spinal TB increased from 14% to 45·2% in the last 10 years (P = 0·017). Positive Mycobacterium tuberculosis testing in vertebral specimens was 88·2% (15/17) for GeneXpert MTB/RIF. Compared with natives, foreign-born patients were younger (P < 0·01) and required surgery more often (P = 0·003) because of higher percentages of paravertebral abscess (P = 0·038), cord compression (P = 0·05), and persistent neurological sequelae (P = 0·05). In our setting, one-third of spinal TB cases occurred in non-native residents. Compared with natives, foreign-born patients were younger and had greater severity of the disease. The GeneXpert MTB/RIF test may be of value for diagnosing spinal TB.

This study aimed to evaluate the risk factors for tuberculosis (TB) treatment default in a priority city for disease control in Brazil. A cohort of TB cases diagnosed from 2008 to 2009 was followed up from patients’ entry into three outpatient sites, in Juiz de Fora, Minas Gerais (Brazil), until the recording of the outcomes. Drug addiction, alcoholism and treatment site appeared to be independently associated with default. Current users of crack as the hardest drug (odds ratio (OR) 12·25, 95% confidence interval (CI) 3·04–49·26) were more likely to default than other hard drug users (OR 5·67, 95% CI 1·34–24·03), former users (OR 4·12, 95% CI 1·11–15·20) and those not known to use drugs (reference group). Consumers at high risk of alcoholism (OR 2·94, 95% CI 1·08–7·99) and those treated in an outpatient hospital unit (OR 8·22, 95% CI 2·79–24·21%) also were more likely to default. Our results establish that substance abuse was independently associated with default. National TB programmes might be more likely to achieve their control targets if they include interventions aimed at improving adherence and cure rates, by diagnosing and treating substance abuse concurrently with standard TB therapy.