Prisons/jails are thought to amplify the transmission of Staphylococcus aureus (SA) particularly methicillin-resistant SA infection and colonisation. Two independently pooled cross-sectional samples of detainees being admitted or discharged from two New York State maximum-security prisons were used to explore this concept. Private interviews of participants were conducted, during which the anterior nares and oropharynx were sampled and assessed for SA colonisation. Log-binomial regression and correspondence analysis (CA) were used to evaluate the prevalence of colonisation at entry as compared with discharge. Approximately 51% of admitted (N = 404) and 41% of discharged (N = 439) female detainees were colonised with SA. Among males, 59% of those admitted (N = 427) and 49% of those discharged (N = 393) were colonised. Females had a statistically significant higher prevalence (1·26: P = 0·003) whereas males showed no significant difference (1·06; P = 0·003) in SA prevalence between entry and discharge. CA demonstrated that some strains, such as spa types t571 and t002, might have an affinity for certain mucosal sites. Contrary to our hypothesis, the prison setting did not amplify SA transmission, and CA proved to be a useful tool in describing the population structure of strains according to time and/or mucosal site.

Cervical cancer is the second most frequent cancer in women in French Guiana. Studies have shown that populations living in the remote areas of the interior have early sexual debut and that multiple sexual partnerships are common. The objective of the present study was thus to determine the prevalence of human papillomavirus (HPV) infection in these areas. A study was conducted in women aged 20–65 years with previous sexual activity. Women were included on a voluntary basis after using local media and leaders to inform them of the visit of the team. HPV infection was defined by the detection of HPV DNA using the Greiner Bio-One kit. In addition to HPV testing cytology was performed. The overall age-standardized prevalence rate was 35%. There was a U-shaped evolution of HPV prevalence by age with women aged >50 years at highest risk for HPV, followed by the 20–29 years group. Twenty-seven percent of women with a positive HPV test had normal cytology. Given the high incidence of cervical cancer in French Guiana and the high prevalence of HPV infections the present results re-emphasize the need for screening for cervical cancer in these remote areas. Vaccination against HPV, preferably with a nonavalent vaccine, also seems an important prevention measure. However, in this region where a large portion of the population has no health insurance, this still represents a challenge.

Central nervous system infections (CNSI) are a leading cause of death and long-term disability in children. Using ICD-10 data from 2005 to 2015 from three central hospitals in Ho Chi Minh City (HCMC), Vietnam, we exploited generalized additive mixed models (GAMM) to examine the spatial-temporal distribution and spatial and climatic risk factors of paediatric CNSI, excluding tuberculous meningitis, in this setting. From 2005 to 2015, there were 9469 cases of paediatric CNSI; 33% were ⩽1 year old at admission and were mainly diagnosed with presumed bacterial CNSI (BI) (79%), the remainder were >1 year old and mainly diagnosed with presumed non-bacterial CNSI (non-BI) (59%). The urban districts of HCMC in proximity to the hospitals as well as some outer districts had the highest incidences of BI and non-BI; BI incidence was higher in the dry season. Monthly BI incidence exhibited a significant decreasing trend over the study. Both BI and non-BI were significantly associated with lags in monthly average temperature, rainfall, and river water level. Our findings add new insights into this important group of infections in Vietnam, and highlight where resources for the prevention and control of paediatric CNSI should be allocated.

Young pregnant women with HIV may be at significant risk of unplanned pregnancy, lower treatment coverage, and other adverse pregnancy outcomes. In a large cohort of pregnant women with HIV in Italy, among 2979 pregnancies followed in 2001–2016, 9·0% were in women <25 years, with a significant increase over time (2001–2005: 7·0%; 2006–2010: 9·1%; 2011–2016: 12·2%, P < 0·001). Younger women had a lower rate of planned pregnancy (23·2% vs. 37·7%, odds ratio (OR) 0·50, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0·36–0·69), were more frequently diagnosed with HIV in pregnancy (46·5% vs. 20·9%, OR 3·29, 95% CI 2·54–4·25), and, if already diagnosed with HIV before pregnancy, were less frequently on antiretroviral treatment at conception (<25 years: 56·3%; ⩾25 years: 69·0%, OR 0·58, 95% CI 0·41–0·81). During pregnancy, treatment coverage was almost universal in both age groups (98·5% vs. 99·3%), with no differences in rate of HIV viral suppression at third trimester and adverse pregnancy outcomes. The data show that young women represent a growing proportion of pregnant women with HIV, and are significantly more likely to have unplanned pregnancy, undiagnosed HIV infection, and lower treatment coverage at conception. During pregnancy, antiretroviral treatment, HIV suppression, and pregnancy outcomes are similar compared with older women. Earlier intervention strategies may provide additional benefits in the quality of care for women with HIV.

The risk ratio quantifies the risk of disease in a study population relative to a reference population. Standard methods of estimation and testing assume a perfect diagnostic test having sensitivity and specificity of 100%. However, this assumption typically does not hold, and this may invalidate naive estimation and testing for the risk ratio. We propose procedures that control for sensitivity and specificity of the diagnostic test, given the risks are measured by proportions, as it is in cross-sectional studies or studies with fixed follow-up times. These procedures provide an exact unconditional test and confidence interval for the true risk ratio. The methods also cover the case when sensitivity and specificity differ in the two groups (differential misclassification). The resulting test and confidence interval may be useful in epidemiological studies as well as in clinical and vaccine trials. We illustrate the method with real-life examples which demonstrate that ignoring sensitivity and specificity of the diagnostic test may lead to considerable bias in the estimated risk ratio.

The Houston Health Department (HHD) in Texas tracks influenza-like illness (ILI) in the community through its Influenza Sentinel Surveillance Program, which began in 2008. After the influenza A(H1N1) pandemic (pH1N1) in 2009, investigators sought to assess the feasibility of this program as a non-traditional data source for tracking and monitoring care-seeking activities. Through the process of characterizing and describing patients who had ‘return visits’, or who were considered the heaviest ILI-related care-utilizers, the investigators sought to understand the strengths and limitations of this data source. Data used for this study were obtained from a multispecialty clinic in Houston, Texas between August 2008 and January 2011 across three phases: pre-pH1N1, pH1N1, and post-pH1N1. The data, which comprised of 4047 patient visits, yielded 150 return visits. We found an increase in the number of visits for ILI and proportion of return visits during the pandemic phase (pH1N1), as well as differences in the likelihood of a return visit between genders and age groups. More broadly, the findings of this study provide important considerations for future research and expose important gaps in using surveillance data to assess sick-role behaviors.

We investigated the epidemiology and characterization of isolates of Staphylococcus aureus within the Yorkshire and Humber (YH) region in the UK. In July 2015, each laboratory within YH (n = 14) was assigned two consecutive days during which all clinical isolates of S. aureus were collected. Isolates were tested for antibiotic susceptibilities and the presence of genes encoding methicillin resistance (mecA and mecC), Panton–Valentine leukocidin (PVL) (lukS-PV), and efflux-mediated chlorhexidine resistance (qacA); isolates were also characterized by spa-types. Minimum inhibitory concentrations (MICs) to chlorhexidine were determined by the broth dilution method. Of 520 isolates collected, 6·2% were methicillin-resistant S. aureus (MRSA, all mecA-positive) and mupirocin resistance was low [0·8%, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0·3–2·0] and only found in MRSA. Carriage of the qacA gene was identified in 1·7% (95% CI 0·8–3·3) of isolates and 3·5% (95% CI 2·2–5·4) had a chlorhexidine MIC of 4 mg/l. The PVL gene was infrequent (3·7%, 95% CI 2·4–5·6). Genotyping identified 234 spa-types that mapped to 22 clonal complexes. Comparison of these current data with previous work suggest that the widespread use of staphylococcal decolonization regimens over the past decade or more has not had an adverse impact on resistance rates, PVL carriage or the prevalence of specific S. aureus lineages.

West Nile virus (WNV) is a growing public health concern in Europe and there is a need to develop more efficient early detection systems. Nervous signs in horses are considered to be an early indicator of WNV and, using them in a syndromic surveillance system, might be relevant. In our study, we assessed whether or not data collected by the passive French surveillance system for the surveillance of equine diseases can be used routinely for the detection of WNV. We tested several pre-processing methods and detection algorithms based on regression. We evaluated system performances using simulated and authentic data and compared them to those of the surveillance system currently in place. Our results show that the current detection algorithm provided similar performances to those tested using simulated and real data. However, regression models can be easily and better adapted to surveillance objectives. The detection performances obtained were compatible with the early detection of WNV outbreaks in France (i.e. sensitivity 98%, specificity >94%, timeliness 2·5 weeks and around four false alarms per year) but further work is needed to determine the most suitable alarm threshold for WNV surveillance in France using cost-efficiency analysis.

Oral anti-diabetic drugs (OADs) have been associated with community-acquired pneumonia (CAP). We aimed to validate the recording of CAP in the Spanish Database for Pharmacoepidemiological Research in Primary Care (BIFAP) for the future evaluation of OAD–CAP association. The incidence rate (IR/1000 person-years) of CAP in type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) was also determined. In total, 2966 pneumonia records (2040 listed as diagnosis and 926 as identified from comments added by physicians) were identified from 76 009 patients with T2DM after the first OAD in 2002–2013. Data around the CAP date were reviewed: 1803 (60·9%) were classified as ‘probable CAP’ (confirmed by X-ray/laboratory, referral letters or CAP lung site); 589 (19·8%) as ‘no-case’ (486 had other illness, 78 previous CAP, 25 cancer); and 574 (19·4%) as ‘possible CAP’ (441 without confirmatory information, 133 with uncertain diagnosis or uncertain diagnosis date). In total, 74·2% and 31·4% of pneumonia records in the diagnosis and comments, respectively, were ‘probable cases’ (IR: 6·04), which increased to 90·5% and 42·9%, respectively, when the 441 ‘possible cases’ without confirmatory information were included (IR: 7·52). In summary, diagnosis had a high positive predictive value, and adding cases automatically detected from comments decreased that value significantly.

Hand, foot, and mouth disease (HFMD) is highly prevalent in China, and more efficient methods of epidemic detection and early warning need to be developed to augment traditional surveillance systems. In this paper, a method that uses Baidu search queries to track and predict HFMD epidemics is presented, and the outbreaks of HFMD in China during the 60-month period from January 2011 to December 2015 are predicted. The Pearson correlation coefficient (R) of the predictive model and the mean absolute percentage errors between observed HFMD case counts and the predicted number show that our predictive model gives excellent fit to the data. This implies that Baidu search queries can be used in China to track and reliably predict HFMD epidemics, and can serve as a supplement to official systems for HFMD epidemic surveillance.

Animal health surveillance enables the detection and control of animal diseases including zoonoses. Under the EU-FP7 project RISKSUR, a survey was conducted in 11 EU Member States and Switzerland to describe active surveillance components in 2011 managed by the public or private sector and identify gaps and opportunities. Information was collected about hazard, target population, geographical focus, legal obligation, management, surveillance design, risk-based sampling, and multi-hazard surveillance. Two countries were excluded due to incompleteness of data. Most of the 664 components targeted cattle (26·7%), pigs (17·5%) or poultry (16·0%). The most common surveillance objectives were demonstrating freedom from disease (43·8%) and case detection (26·8%). Over half of components applied risk-based sampling (57·1%), but mainly focused on a single population stratum (targeted risk-based) rather than differentiating between risk levels of different strata (stratified risk-based). About a third of components were multi-hazard (37·3%). Both risk-based sampling and multi-hazard surveillance were used more frequently in privately funded components. The study identified several gaps (e.g. lack of systematic documentation, inconsistent application of terminology) and opportunities (e.g. stratified risk-based sampling). The greater flexibility provided by the new EU Animal Health Law means that systematic evaluation of surveillance alternatives will be required to optimize cost-effectiveness.

Seasonal respiratory illnesses present a major burden on primary care services. We assessed the burden of respiratory illness on a national telehealth system in England and investigated the potential for providing early warning of respiratory infection. We compared weekly laboratory reports for respiratory pathogens with telehealth calls (NHS 111) between week 40 in 2013 and week 29 in 2015. Multiple linear regression was used to identify which pathogens had a significant association with respiratory calls. Children aged <5 and 5–14 years, and adults over 65 years were modelled separately as were time lags of up to 4 weeks between calls and laboratory specimen dates. Associations with respiratory pathogens explained over 83% of the variation in cold/flu, cough and difficulty breathing calls. Based on the first two seasons available, the greatest burden was associated with respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) and influenza, with associations found in all age bands. The most sensitive signal for influenza was calls for ‘cold/flu’, whilst for RSV it was calls for cough. The best-fitting models showed calls increasing a week before laboratory specimen dates. Daily surveillance of these calls can provide early warning of seasonal rises in influenza and RSV, contributing to the national respiratory surveillance programme.

Investigating whether high-risk human papillomavirus (HR-HPV) types tend to become grouped in a particular way and whether factors are associated with such grouping is important for measuring the real impact of vaccination. In total, 219 women proving positive for HPV as detected by real-time PCR were included in the study. Each sample was analysed for detecting and quantifying six viral types and the hydroxymethylbilane synthase gene. Multiple correspondence analysis led to determining grouping patterns for six HR-HPV types and simultaneous association with multiple variables and whether viral load was related to the coexistence of other viral types. Two grouping profiles were identified: the first included HPV-16 and HPV-45 and the second profile was represented by HPV-31, HPV-33 and HPV-58. Variables such as origin, contraceptive method, births and pregnancies, educational level, healthcare affiliation regime, atypical squamous cells of undetermined significance and viral load were associated with these grouping profiles. Different socio-demographic characteristics were found when coinfection occurred by phylogenetically related HPV types and when coinfection was due to non-related types. Biological characteristics, the number of viral copies, temporality regarding acquiring infection and competition between viral types could influence the configuration of grouping patterns. Characteristics related to women and HPV, influence such interactions between coexisting HPV types reflecting the importance of their evaluation.

Streptococcus pneumoniae (Spn) is a leading cause of community-acquired pneumonia (CAP), yet existing diagnostic tools remain inadequate. We aimed to evaluate laboratory and radiological methods for detecting pneumococcal aetiology in CAP patients and to estimate Spn prevalence in this group. All-aged patients hospitalized with clinically defined CAP in northern Togo were enrolled during 2010–2013. Latent class analysis pooled results of semi-automated blood culture (SABC), whole blood lytA real-time polymerase chain reaction (rt-PCR), serum C-reactive protein (CRP), and chest radiography (CXR) and categorized patients as likely pneumococcal or non-pneumococcal CAP. We enrolled 1684 patients; 1501 had results for all tests. CXR, SABC, lytA rt-PCR and CRP >71·2 mg/l had sensitivities of 94% [95% confidence interval (CI) 87–100], 13% (95% CI 10–16), 17% (95% CI 14–21) and 78% (95% CI 75–80), and specificities of 88% (95% CI 84–93), 100% (95% CI 99–100), 97% (95% CI 96–99) and 77% (95% CI 75–79), respectively. Pneumococcal attributable proportion was 34% (95% CI 32–37), increasing with age and in men. We estimated that Spn caused one third of CAP. Whole blood lytA rt-PCR was more sensitive than SABC; both had low sensitivity and high specificity. Conversely CXR was highly sensitive and reasonably specific; it could be a useful tool for epidemiological studies aiming to define Spn pneumonia incidence across all ages.

The spread of African swine fever virus (ASFV) threatens to reach further parts of Europe. In countries with a large swine production, an outbreak of ASF may result in devastating economic consequences for the swine industry. Simulation models can assist decision makers setting up contingency plans. This creates a need for estimation of parameters. This study presents a new analysis of a previously published study. A full likelihood framework is presented including the impact of model assumptions on the estimated transmission parameters. As animals were only tested every other day, an interpretation was introduced to cover the weighted infectiousness on unobserved days for the individual animals (WIU). Based on our model and the set of assumptions, the within- and between-pen transmission parameters were estimated to βw = 1·05 (95% CI 0·62–1·72), βb = 0·46 (95% CI 0·17–1·00), respectively, and the WIU = 1·00 (95% CI 0–1). Furthermore, we simulated the spread of ASFV within a pig house using a modified SEIR-model to establish the time from infection of one animal until ASFV is detected in the herd. Based on a chosen detection limit of 2·55% equivalent to 10 dead pigs out of 360, the disease would be detected 13–19 days after introduction.

Neisseria meningitidis is a gram-negative bacterium that lives as a commensal in the human nasopharynx. Meningococci are generally non-invasive, but can invade the nasopharyngeal epithelia and enter the bloodstream causing life-threatening illnesses. It is generally thought that meningococci do not survive for long outside the host, and that transmission requires relatively close contact between hosts. There are some reports, however, that meningococci can survive drying on surfaces, including glass, plastic and cloth. Our examination of N. meningitidis strains dried on glass showed differences in survival of isolates belonging to serogroups B, C and W135, including persistence of Cuban, New Zealand, and Norwegian epidemic strains up to 8 days, depending on temperature and humidity. Survival of a New Zealand epidemic strain isolate NZ98/254 under ambient conditions in the laboratory was greatest in winter suggesting that environmental factors impacted survival. For most isolates, including NZ98/254, survival under controlled conditions at 30 °C was greater at 22% than 30% relative humidity. There were also some differences in survival between carriage and invasive strains. The results suggest that N. meningitidis could be transmitted through contact with surfaces outside the host, potentially including contact through shared drinking vessels.

Streptococcus anginosus Group (SAG) bacteria are common causes of pyogenic infections (PIs). We examined the association between SAG species and the presence of a PI through a retrospective, observational, cohort study, between the years 2009 and 2015. All adults with clinically significant SAG infections in one hospital in Israel were assessed for association between SAG species and the presence of a PI defined as an abscess, empyema, or deep/organ space surgical site infection. Risk factors for PI were assessed using multivariate backward stepwise logistic regression analysis. We identified 263 patients with significant SAG infections, 182 (69%) of which were caused by S. anginosus, 45 (17·1%) by Streptococcus constellatus and 36 (13·7%) by Streptococcus intermedius. The mean age of the patients was 56·8 ± 19·1 years. PIs were identified among 160 (60%) of the patients and were mostly non-bacteraemic (147/160, 91·8%), while most non-PI patients had bacteraemia (70/103, 68%). S. anginosus and S. constellatus were associated with a significantly lower incidence of PI than S. intermedius, OR 0·18 (95% CI 0·06–0·53) and 0·14 (0·04–0·48), respectively. Patients with PI were younger and, in general, had less co-morbidities. S. intermedius was associated with pyogenic non-bacteraemic infections, while S. anginosus and S. constellatus were associated with bacteraemia with no abscess or empyema formation. These data may indicate differences in virulence mechanisms of these SAG bacteria.

To date, only a few sporadic cases of infections due to Klebsiella pneumoniae carbapenemase (KPC) producers have been reported in Portugal. Here, we report for the first time an outbreak of K. pneumoniae KPC-3 producers in a tertiary-care hospital during 2013. Twenty-seven ertapenem-resistant K. pneumoniae were identified in patients at a tertiary-care hospital during 2013 isolated predominantly from urine (48·1%) and blood (25·9%) cultures. All isolates were highly resistant to β-lactam antibiotics and most showed intermediate resistance to imipenem. The more frequent β-lactamases were TEM- (77·7%), CTX-M- (70·3%) and KPC-type (66·6%). KPC-3 was identified by sequencing. The bla KPC−3 gene was associated with an IncF plasmid, and efficiently transferred to E. coli J53. Pulsed-field gel electrophoresis typing revealed three clusters of isolates which were further characterized by multi-locus sequence typing as ST11, ST15 and ST348. Ertapenem-resistant ST15 was already in circulation in the hospital, related to expression of OmpK36 modified porin, but the other two sequence types had not been previously found in the hospital. We conclude that the IncF plasmid mediated transfer of KPC-3 in the outbreak and that implementation of carbapenemase gene screening in isolates from patients on admission to hospital is advisable in order to control dissemination of these antimicrobial resistance elements.

Fosfomycin has become a therapeutic option in urinary tract infections. We identified 57 fosfomycin-resistant Escherichia coli from 465 urine-derived extended-spectrum β-lactamase (ESBL)-producing isolates from a Chinese hospital during 2010–2014. Of the 57 fosfomycin-resistant isolates, 51 (89·5%) carried fosA3, and one carried fosA1. Divergent pulsed-field gel electrophoresis profiles and multi-locus sequence typing results revealed high clonal diversity in the fosA3-positive isolates. Conjugation experiments showed that the fosA3 genes from 50 isolates were transferable, with IncFII or IncI1 being the most prevalent types of plasmids. The high prevalence of fosA3 was closely associated with that of blaCTX-M. Horizontal transfer, rather than clonal expansion, might play a central role in dissemination. Such strains may constitute an important reservoir of fosA3 and blaCTX-M, which may well be readily disseminated to other potential human pathogens. Since most ESBL-producing E. coli have acquired resistance to fluoroquinolones worldwide, further spread of fosA3 in such E. coli isolates should be monitored closely.

Overwhelming post-splenectomy infection (OPSI) is a serious complication of asplenia and is associated with encapsulated organisms, most commonly Streptococcus pneumoniae, but also Haemophilus influenzae and Neisseria meningitidis. We aimed to estimate the risk of infection in this patient group. We reviewed data collected by the Victorian Spleen Registry in Australia. On registration, all patients are asked about significant infections requiring admission to hospital for intravenous antibiotics; those requiring admission to ICU were defined as OPSI. In the 3274 asplenic patients registered 492 patients reported at least one episode of infection. There were 47 episodes of OPSI requiring intensive care (incidence rate 1·11/1000 patient-years). The risk of OPSI was highest in older patients, and there were no statistically significant differences in incidence by reason for splenectomy except for a higher rate in patients with medical hyposplenia. This study reinforces that post-splenectomy infection is a clinically significant but uncommon complication, and that fulminant infection requiring intensive care is a minority of all infections.