Since the outbreak of the COVID-19 epidemic, it has posed a great crisis to the health and economy of the world. The objective is to provide a simple deep-learning approach for predicting, modelling, and evaluating the time evolutions of the COVID-19 epidemic. The Dove Swarm Search (DSS) algorithm is integrated with the echo state network (ESN) to optimize the weight. The ESN-DSS model is constructed to predict the evolution of the COVID-19 time series. Specifically, the self-driven ESN-DSS is created to form a closed feedback loop by replacing the input with the output. The prediction results, which involve COVID-19 temporal evolutions of multiple countries worldwide, indicate the excellent prediction performances of our model compared with several artificial intelligence prediction methods from the literature (e.g., recurrent neural network, long short-term memory, gated recurrent units, variational auto encoder) at the same time scale. Moreover, the model parameters of the self-driven ESN-DSS are determined which acts as a significant impact on the prediction performance. As a result, the network parameters are adjusted to improve the prediction accuracy. The prediction results can be used as proposals to help governments and medical institutions formulate pertinent precautionary measures to prevent further spread. In addition, this study is not only limited to COVID-19 time series forecasting but also applicable to other nonlinear time series prediction problems.

SARS-CoV-2 transmission dynamics within households involving children are complex. We examined the association between paediatric index case (PIC) age and subsequent household SARS-CoV-2 transmission among cases reported to the Minnesota Department of Health between March 2021 and February 2022. In our primary analysis, we used logistic regression to estimate odds ratios adjusted for race/ethnicity, sex, geographic region, and disease severity among households with an unvaccinated PIC. We performed a secondary analysis among households where the PIC was eligible for vaccination adjusting for the same covariates plus time since the last vaccination. Both analyses were stratified by variant wave. During the Alpha wave, PICs of all age groups had similar odds of subsequent transmission. During Delta and Omicron waves, PICs aged 16–17 had higher odds of subsequent transmission than PICs aged 0–4 (Delta OR, 1.32; [95% CI, 1.16–1.51], Omicron OR, 4.21; [95% CI, 3.25–5.45]). In the secondary analysis, unvaccinated PICs had higher odds of subsequent transmission than vaccinated PICs (Delta OR 2.89 [95% CI, 2.18–3.84], Omicron OR 1.35 [95% CI, 1.21–1.50]). Enhanced preventative measures, especially for 12–17-year-olds, may limit SARS-CoV-2 transmission within households involving children.

Predicting epidemic trends of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) remains a key public health concern globally today. However, the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) reinfection rate in previous studies of the transmission dynamics model was mostly a fixed value. Therefore, we proposed a meta-Susceptible-Exposed-Infectious-Recovered-Susceptible (SEIRS) model by adding a time-varying SARS-CoV-2 reinfection rate to the transmission dynamics model to more accurately characterize the changes in the number of infected persons. The time-varying reinfection rate was estimated using random-effect multivariate meta-regression based on published literature reports of SARS-CoV-2 reinfection rates. The meta-SEIRS model was constructed to predict the epidemic trend of COVID-19 from February to December 2023 in Sichuan province. Finally, according to the online questionnaire survey, the SARS-CoV-2 infection rate at the end of December 2022 in Sichuan province was 82.45%. The time-varying effective reproduction number in Sichuan province had two peaks from July to December 2022, with a maximum peak value of about 15. The prediction results based on the meta-SEIRS model showed that the highest peak of the second wave of COVID-19 in Sichuan province would be in late May 2023. The number of new infections per day at the peak would be up to 2.6 million. We constructed a meta-SEIRS model to predict the epidemic trend of COVID-19 in Sichuan province, which was consistent with the trend of SARS-CoV-2 positivity in China. Therefore, a meta-SEIRS model parameterized based on evidence-based data can be more relevant to the actual situation and thus more accurately predict future trends in the number of infections.

Residual blood specimens provide a sample repository that could be analyzed to estimate and track changes in seroprevalence with fewer resources than household-based surveys. We conducted parallel facility and community-based cross-sectional serological surveys in two districts in India, Kanpur Nagar District, Uttar Pradesh, and Palghar District, Maharashtra, before and after a measles-rubella supplemental immunization activity (MR-SIA) from 2018 to 2019. Anonymized residual specimens from children 9 months to younger than 15 years of age were collected from public and private diagnostic laboratories and public hospitals and tested for IgG antibodies to measles and rubella viruses. Significant increases in seroprevalence were observed following the MR SIA using the facility-based specimens. Younger children whose specimens were tested at a public facility in Kanpur Nagar District had significantly lower rubella seroprevalence prior to the SIA compared to those attending a private hospital, but this difference was not observed following the SIA. Similar increases in rubella seroprevalence were observed in facility-based and community-based serosurveys following the MR SIA, but trends in measles seroprevalence were inconsistent between the two specimen sources. Despite challenges with representativeness and limited metadata, residual specimens can be useful in estimating seroprevalence and assessing trends through facility-based sentinel surveillance.

By coupling long-range polymerase chain reaction, wastewater-based epidemiology, and pathogen sequencing, we show that adenovirus type 41 hexon-sequence lineages, described in children with hepatitis of unknown origin in the United States in 2021, were already circulating within the country in 2019. We also observed other lineages in the wastewater, whose complete genomes have yet to be documented from clinical samples.

We report a foodborne outbreak of the previously undetected Cryptosporidium parvum gp60 subtype IIγA11. In December 2023, notifications of cryptosporidiosis cases increased in Sweden, prompting the initiation of a national outbreak investigation, and a case–control study was performed to identify the source. We identified 60 cases between 15 December 2023 and 1 January 2024. The median age was 44 years (range: 16–81), and 73% were women. Controls were recruited from a national random pool; frequency was matched by age group and sex. Compared to controls, cases were more likely to have consumed items from salad bars in grocery stores (8% vs. 85%; adjusted odds ratios [aOR]: 58; 95% confidence interval [CI]: 22–186). In regards to food items from the salad bars, cases were more likely to have consumed kale mix salad compared to controls (62% vs. 32%; aOR: 3.6; 95%CI: 1.2–12). Trace-back investigations identified kale producers from Sweden, Belgium, and Spain, but no particular grower was identified, and no food samples were available for microbiological analysis. Our investigation indicates that leafy greens such as kale may contain Cryptosporidium spp. and cause outbreaks and it is important to understand how the contamination occurs to prevent future outbreaks and apply adequate preventive measures.

Since the beginning of mass vaccination campaign for COVID-19 in Italy (December 2020) and following the rapidly increasing vaccine administration, sex differences have been emphasized. Nevertheless, incomplete and frequently incoherent sex-disaggregated data for COVID-19 vaccinations are currently available, and vaccines clinical studies generally do not include sex-specific analyses for safety and efficacy. We looked at sex variations in the COVID-19 vaccine’s effectiveness against infection and severe disease outcomes. We conducted a nationwide retrospective cohort study on Italian population, linking information on COVID-19 vaccine administrations obtained through the Italian National Vaccination Registry, with the COVID-19 integrated surveillance system, held by the Istituto Superiore di Sanità. The results showed that, in all age groups, vaccine effectiveness (VE) was higher in the time-interval ≤120 days post-vaccination. In terms of the sex difference in vaccination effectiveness, men and women were protected against serious illness by vaccination in a comparable way, while men were protected against infection to a somewhat greater extent than women. To fully understand the mechanisms underlying the sex difference in vaccine response and its consequences for vaccine effectiveness and development, further research is required. The sex-related analysis of vaccine response may contribute to adjust vaccination strategies, improving overall public health programmes.

The extent to which the oro-faecal route contributes to the transmission of SARS-CoV-2 is not established.

We systematically reviewed the evidence on the presence of infectious SARS-CoV-2 in faeces and other gastrointestinal sources by examining studies that used viral culture to investigate the presence of replication-competent virus in these samples. We conducted searches in the WHO COVID-19 Database, LitCovid, medRxiv, and Google Scholar for SARS-CoV-2 using keywords and associated synonyms, with a search date up to 28 November 2023.

We included 13 studies involving 229 COVID-19 subjects – providing 308 faecal or rectal swab SARS-CoV2 reverse transcription-polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR)-positive samples tested with viral culture. The methods used for viral culture across the studies were heterogeneous. Three studies (two cohorts and one case series) reported observing replication-competent SARS-CoV-2 confirmed by quantitative RT-PCR (qPCR) and whole-genome sequencing, and qPCR including appropriate cycle threshold changes. Overall, six (1.9%) of 308 faecal samples subjected to cell culture showed replication-competent virus. One study found replication-competent samples from one immunocompromised patient. No studies were identified demonstrating direct evidence of oro-faecal transmission to humans.

Our review found a relatively low frequency of replication-competent SARS-CoV-2 in faecal and other gastrointestinal sources. Although it is biologically plausible, more research is needed using standardized cell culture methods, control groups, adequate follow-up, and robust epidemiologic methods, including whether secondary infections occurred, to determine the role of the oro-faecal route in the transmission of SARS-CoV-2.

Recent developments have indicated a potential association between tinnitus and COVID-19. The study aimed to understand tinnitus following COVID-19 by examining its severity, recovery prospects, and connection to other lasting COVID-19 effects. Involving 1331 former COVID-19 patients, the online survey assessed tinnitus severity, cognitive issues, and medical background. Of the participants, 27.9% reported tinnitus after infection. Findings showed that as tinnitus severity increased, the chances of natural recovery fell, with more individuals experiencing ongoing symptoms (p < 0.001). Those with the Grade II mild tinnitus (OR = 3.68; CI = 1.89–7.32; p = 0.002), Grade III tinnitus (OR = 3.70; CI = 1.94–7.22; p < 0.001), Grade IV (OR = 6.83; CI = 3.73–12.91; p < 0.001), and a history of tinnitus (OR = 1.96; CI = 1.08–3.64; p = 0.03) had poorer recovery outcomes. Grade IV cases were most common (33.2%), and severe tinnitus was strongly associated with the risk of developing long-term hearing loss, anxiety, and emotional disorders (p < 0.001). The study concludes that severe post-COVID tinnitus correlates with a worse prognosis and potential hearing loss, suggesting the need for attentive treatment and management of severe cases.

Leptospirosis is a widespread zoonosis caused by bacteria of the genus Leptospira. Although crucial to mitigate the disease risk, basic epidemiological information is lacking, such as the identities of Leptospira maintenance hosts. The raccoon (Procyon lotor), an alien invasive species in France, could pose a public health risk if it carries pathogenic Leptospira. We investigated the rate and type (selective vs. unselective) of Leptospira carriage in the two main raccoon populations in France. Out of the 141 raccoons collected, seven (5%) tested quantitative PCR positive, targeting lfb1 gene, based on kidney, lung, and urine samples. Phylogenetic analysis revealed the presence of three different L. interrogans clusters. The results suggest that raccoons were more likely accidental hosts and made only a limited contribution to Leptospira maintenance.

Recent studies have suggested an increased incidence of myocarditis and pericarditis following mRNA vaccination or COVID-19. However, the potential interaction effect between vaccine type and COVID-19 on heart disease risk remains uncertain. Our study aimed to examine the impact of COVID-19 status and vaccine type following the first dose on acute heart disease in the Korean population, using data from the National Health Insurance Service COVID-19 database (October 2018–March 2022). We sought to provide insights for public health policies and clinical decisions pertaining to COVID-19 vaccination strategies. We analysed heart disease risk, including acute cardiac injury, acute myocarditis, acute pericarditis, cardiac arrest, and cardiac arrhythmia, in relation to vaccine type and COVID-19 within 21 days after the first vaccination date, employing Cox proportional hazards models with time-varying covariates. This study included 3,350,855 participants. The results revealed higher heart disease risk in individuals receiving mRNA vaccines than other types (adjusted HR, 1.48; 95% CI, 1.35–1.62). Individuals infected by SARS-CoV-2 also exhibited significantly higher heart disease risk than those uninfected (adjusted HR, 3.56; 95% CI, 1.15–11.04). We found no significant interaction effect between vaccine type and COVID-19 status on the risk of acute heart disease. Notably, however, younger individuals who received mRNA vaccines had a higher heart disease risk compared to older individuals. These results may suggest the need to consider alternative vaccine options for the younger population. Further research is needed to understand underlying mechanisms and guide vaccination strategies effectively.

Tuberculosis infection (TBI) has been associated with increased cardiovascular risks. We aimed to characterize abnormal blood pressure (BP) readings in individuals with TBI. We conducted a retrospective study of adults with TBI presenting for their initial medical visit at a large midwestern U.S. public health clinic between 2019 and 2020. Abnormal BP was defined as having a systolic BP ≥ 130 mmHg and/or a diastolic BP ≥ 80 mmHg. Of 310 individuals with TBI, median age was 36 years (interquartile range 27–48), 34% were male, 64% non-US-born; 58 (18.7%) were previously diagnosed with hypertension. The prevalence of any hypertension (i.e., had a history of hypertension and/or an abnormal BP reading) was 64.2% (95% confidence interval 58.7–69.4). Any hypertension was independently associated with older age, male sex, higher body mass index, and individuals of Black race. In conclusion, any hypertension was present in over half of the adults evaluated for TBI in our clinic. Established hypertension risk factors were also common among this group, suggesting that individuals with TBI could benefit from clinical and public health interventions aiming to reduce the risk of future cardiovascular events.

As one of the most neglected zoonotic diseases, brucellosis has posed a serious threat to public health worldwide. This study is purposed to apply different machine learning models to improve the prediction accuracy of human brucellosis (HB) in Shaanxi, China from 2008 to 2020, under livestock husbandry intensification from a spatiotemporal perspective. We quantitatively evaluated the performance and suitability of ConvLSTM, RF, and LSTM models in epidemic forecasting, and investigated the spatial heterogeneity of how different factors drive the occurrence and transmission of HB in distinct sub-regions by using Kernel Density Analysis and Shapley Additional Explanations. Our findings demonstrated that ConvLSTM network yielded the best predictive performance with the lowest average RMSE of 13.875 and MAE values of 18.393. RF model generated an underestimated outcome while LSTM model had an overestimated one. In addition, climatic conditions, intensification of livestock keeping and socioeconomic status were identified as the dominant factors that drive the occurrence of HB in Shaanbei Plateau, Guanzhong Plain, and Shaannan Region, respectively. This work provided a comprehensive understanding of the potential risk of HB epidemics in Northwest China driven by both anthropogenic activities and natural environment, which can support further practice in disease control and prevention.

Inappropriate antibiotic use is a key driver of antibiotic resistance and one that can be mitigated through stewardship. A better understanding of current prescribing practices is needed to develop successful stewardship efforts. This study aims to identify factors that are associated with human cases of enteric illness receiving an antibiotic prescription. Cases of laboratory-confirmed enteric illness reported to the FoodNet Canada surveillance system between 2015 and 2019 were the subjects of this study. Laboratory data were combined with self-reported data collected from an enhanced case questionnaire that included demographic data, illness duration and symptoms, and antibiotic prescribing. The data were used to build univariable logistic regression models and a multivariable logistic regression model to explore what factors were associated with a case receiving an antibiotic prescription. The final multivariable model identified several factors as being significantly associated with cases being prescribed an antibiotic. Some of the identified associations indicate that current antibiotic prescribing practices include a substantial level of inappropriate use. This study provides evidence that antibiotic stewardship initiatives targeting infectious diarrhoea are needed to optimize antibiotic use and combat the rise of antibiotic resistance.

The COVID-19 pandemic impacted the transmission of many pathogens. The aim was to determine the effect of non-pharmaceutical interventions on the incidence of diseases transmitted via food. Weekly incidence rates for nine foodborne pathogens were collected from national surveillance registries. Weekly pathogen incidence during lockdown weeks of 2020 and 2021 were compared with corresponding weeks in 2015–2019. The same analyses were performed to determine the effect of self-defined expected impact levels of measures (low, intermediate and high). Eight out of 9 diseases showed a significant decrease in case number in 2020, except for listeriosis, which remained unchanged. The largest decrease was observed for rotavirus gastronteritis A (−81%), norovirus gastroenteritis (−78%), hepatitis A (−75%) and shigellosis (−72). In 2021, lower case numbers were observed for 6 out of 9 diseases compared with 2015-2019, with the largest decrease for shigellosis (−5/%) and hepatitis E (−47%). No significant change was observed for listeriosis, STEC infection and rotavirus gastroenteritis. Overall, measures with increased expected impact level did not result in a larger decrease in number of cases, except for Campylobacter, and norovirus and rotavirus gastroenteritis. Disease transmitted via food significantly decreased during the COVID-19 pandemic, with a more pronounced effect during 2020 than 2021.

Scabies outbreaks cause significant morbidity and disruption in aged care facilities and other institutional settings. Failure to manage scabies outbreaks may be attributable to low awareness amongst healthcare workers. A survey was distributed to healthcare workers across aged care facilities in South-East Queensland, Australia. The survey captured demographics, prior scabies experience, knowledge-based questions, and attitudes. Scabies was common in aged care facilities, with 41% of 128 respondents encountering the disease while working in aged care. Participants demonstrated sound theoretical knowledge regarding scabies (median knowledge score 82%). Scabies knowledge was not associated with years of experience in the sector or educational level but was associated with respondent age (p = 0.017). Knowledge gaps were evident regarding diagnosis, incubation periods, and treatment. Respondents demonstrated an inconsistent ability to identify atypical clinical presentations of scabies, showing discordance between theoretical knowledge and its practical application. The ability to identify crusted scabies was low, reflecting the high frequency of misdiagnosis of index cases in scabies outbreaks. Respondents considered scabies to be a problem and were supportive of improved management guidelines. These study outcomes will inform the design of accessible, targeted educational resources for scabies to help prevent and reduce the impact of outbreaks.

The epidemiology of respiratory infections may vary depending on factors such as climate changes, geographical features, and urbanization. Pandemics also change the epidemiological characteristics of not only the relevant infectious agent itself but also other infectious agents. This study aims to assess the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the epidemiology of viral respiratory infections in children. We retrospectively reviewed the medical records of children aged ≤18 years with laboratory-confirmed viral respiratory infections other than COVID-19 from January 2018 to March 2023. Data on demographic characteristics, month and year of admission, and microbiological results were collected. During the study period, 1,829 respiratory samples were sent for polymerase chain reaction testing. Rhinovirus was identified in 24% of the patients, mixed infections in 21%, influenza virus in 20%, and respiratory syncytial virus in 12.5%. A 38.6% decrease in viral respiratory infections was observed in 2020, followed by a 188% increase in 2021. The respiratory syncytial virus was significantly more common in the post-pandemic period (13.8%) compared to the pre-pandemic period (8.1%), but no seasonal shift in respiratory syncytial virus infection was observed. There was also a yearly increase in influenza infections in the post-pandemic period compared to the pre-pandemic period. After the COVID-19 pandemic, the frequency of parainfluenza virus infections increased during the summer months, and this finding provides a new contribution to the existing literature.

Plasmodium vivax is the most frequent and widely distributed cause of recurring malaria. It is a public health issue that mostly occurs in Southeast Asia, followed by the Middle East, Latin, and South Americas and sub-Saharan Africa. Although it is commonly known as an etiologic agent of malaria with mild clinical manifestations, it can lead to severe complications. It has been neglected and understudied for a long time, due to its low mortality, culturing infeasibility, and mild clinical manifestations in comparison to P. falciparum. Despite the mild clinical issues commonly rose for P. vivax, the correlation between the clinical manifestations exhibited by patients with severe and non-severe complications and the genetic diversity of parasites responsible for the disease is not clear. An investigation was carried out between 2011 and 2021 on patients referred to Avicenne Hospital for suspected P. vivax infection. Upon arrival, they underwent clinical and biological examinations. The lateral flow test and LAMP-PCR confirmed the presence of malaria parasites, Plasmodium sp‥ Microscopic examination revealed the presence of Plasmodium parasites with a parasitaemia between 0.01 and 0.38%. Conventional PCR amplifications targeting 714 bp DNA fragment of small subunit ribosomal DNA (SSU-rDNA) followed by bidirectional sequencing allowed us to identify the parasites as P. vivax. The neighbor-joining (NJ) phylogenetic tree revealed that P. vivax sequences processed in the present study clustered in two well-differentiated and supported clades. It included a bigger clade including P. vivax specimens of all our patients together with homonymous sequences from Indonesia, India, and El Salvador and the second clade encompassed the sequences from Yemen and India. In addition, the clustering displayed by the median-joining network agreed well with the topology of the phylogenetic tree generated by the neighbor-joining analysis. No correlation between the clinical manifestation of patients with severe and non-severe complications, encompassing diverse geographical origins, and the genetic diversity of parasites was observed since all sequences demonstrated a high homogeneity. These findings can be helpful in getting knowledge about the population genetics of P. vivax and taking proper control management strategies against these parasites.

We aimed to estimate the overall apparent prevalence, true prevalence, and the spatial, temporal, and test-specific burden of bovine tuberculosis in Bangladesh. PubMed, Web of Science, Scopus, Google Scholar, and BanglaJOL were searched for bovine tuberculosis publications in Bangladesh from 1 January 1970 to 23 June 2023. Of 142 articles screened, systematic review and meta-analysis were performed on 22 (15.5%) articles. The apparent estimated bovine tuberculosis prevalence was 7%. The apparent Bayesian pooled mean bovine tuberculosis prevalences based on caudal fold test and single intradermal comparative tuberculin test were 7.83% and 9.89%, respectively, and the true pooled mean prevalences were 10.39% and 10.48%, respectively. Targeted interventions are recommended for districts with higher prevalence to effectively reduce the bovine tuberculosis burden in those areas. Current diagnostic practices employed in Bangladesh may not accurately reflect the bovine tuberculosis burden. Our findings highlight the need for better diagnostic tools and supplemental testing methods to ensure accurate diagnosis and surveillance. Efforts should prioritize obtaining ‘true’ prevalence estimates corrected for misclassification bias, rather than relying solely on apparent prevalence. Underestimating the bovine tuberculosis burden could result in inadequate resource allocation and hinder the implementation of effective control measures.

Legionellosis is a respiratory infection caused by Legionella sp. that is found in water and soil. Infection may cause pneumonia (Legionnaires’ Disease) and a milder form (Pontiac Fever). Legionella colonizes water systems and results in exposure by inhalation of aerosolized bacteria. The incubation period ranges from 2 to 14 days. Precipitation and humidity may be associated with increased risk. We used Medicare records from 1999 to 2020 to identify hospitalizations for legionellosis. Precipitation, temperature, and relative humidity were obtained from the PRISM Climate Group for the zip code of residence. We used a time-stratified bi-directional case-crossover design with lags of 20 days. Data were analyzed using conditional logistic regression and distributed lag non-linear models. A total of 37 883 hospitalizations were identified. Precipitation and relative humidity at lags 8 through 13 days were associated with an increased risk of legionellosis. The strongest association was precipitation at day 10 lag (OR = 1.08, 95% CI = 1.05–1.11 per 1 cm). Over 20 days, 3 cm of precipitation increased the odds of legionellosis over four times. The association was strongest in the Northeast and Midwest and during summer and fall. Precipitation and humidity were associated with hospitalization among Medicare recipients for legionellosis at lags consistent with the incubation period for infection.