In November 2013, the Norwegian Institute of Public Health was notified of a gastroenteritis outbreak following two meetings held at a conference centre. Identical food and beverages were served during the meetings. We investigated in order to identify the vehicle of infection and implement control measures. Meeting participants completed an online questionnaire on consumption of foods and beverages. We asked symptomatic participants to provide a stool sample. We defined a case as diarrhoea and/or vomiting in a participant who became ill within 3 days after the meeting. We calculated attack rates (AR) and adjusted risk ratios (aRR) with 95% confidence intervals (CI) using binomial regression. We conducted environmental investigations. Overall, 147/168 (88%) participants responded, of which 74 (50%) met the case definition. All five stool samples provided were norovirus positive. No kitchen staff reported being sick. Risk of illness was higher in those who consumed raspberry mousse (aRR 3·4, 95% CI 1·4–8·2) and sliced fresh fruit (aRR 1·9, 95% CI 1·3–2·8). Seventy cases (95%) ate raspberry mousse. Frozen raspberries used for the mousse were imported and not heat-treated before consumption. Non-heat-treated frozen raspberries were the most likely outbreak vehicle. Contamination by a food handler could not be excluded. We recommend heat-treatment of imported frozen berries before consumption.

Human anthrax cases reported in the country of Georgia increased 75% from 2011 (n = 81) to 2012 (n = 142). This increase prompted a case-control investigation using 67 culture- or PCR-confirmed cases and 134 controls matched by residence and gender to investigate risk factor(s) for infection during the month before case onset. Independent predictors most strongly associated with disease in the multivariable modelling were slaughtering animals [odds ratio (OR) 7·3, 95% confidence interval (CI) 2·9–18·1, P < 0·001] and disposing of dead animals (OR 13·6, 95% CI 1·5–119·8, P = 0·02). Participants owning or working with livestock (n = 131) were additionally interviewed about livestock management practices during the previous 6 months: 53 (44%) of 121 respondents vaccinated livestock against anthrax; 19 (16%) of 116 moved livestock >1 km; 15 (12%) of 125 had sick livestock; and 11 (9%) of 128 respondents reported finding dead livestock. We recommend joint public health and veterinary anthrax case investigations to identify areas of increased risk for livestock anthrax outbreaks, annual anthrax vaccination of livestock in those areas, and public awareness education.

This study investigated the incidence and risk to staff groups for sustaining needlestick injuries (NSIs) in the National University Hospital (NUH), Singapore. A retrospective cohort review of incident NSI cases was undertaken to determine the injury rate, causation, and epidemiological profile of such injuries. Analysis of the risk of sustaining recurrent NSI by occupation and location was done using the Cox proportional hazards model. There were 244 NSI cases in 5957 employees in NUH in 2014, giving an incidence rate of 4·1/100 healthcare workers (HCWs) per year. The incidence rate was highest for doctors at 21·3, and 2·7 for nurses; 40·6% of injuries occurred in wards, and 32·8% in operating theatres. There were 27 cases of repeated NSI cases. The estimated cost due to NSIs in NUH ranged from US$ 109 800 to US$ 563 152 in 2014. We conclude that creating a workplace environment where top priority is given to prevention of NSIs in HCWs, is essential to address the high incidence of reported NSIs. The data collected will be of value to inform the design of prevention programmes to reduce further the risk of NSIs in HCWs.

Extreme rainfall events may cause pluvial flooding, increasing the transmission of several waterborne pathogens. However, the risk of experiencing clinically overt infections following exposure to pluvial floodwater is poorly estimated. A retrospective cross-sectional survey was performed to quantify the occurrence of self-reported gastrointestinal, influenza-like illness (ILI) and dermatological complaints, and the frequency of visits to the general practitioner (GP), during a 4-week observation period following pluvial flooding at seven locations in The Netherlands. Questionnaires were sent to 817 flooded households, 149 (17%) of which returned the questionnaire reporting information for 199 participants. Contact with floodwater was significantly associated with increased occurrence of gastrointestinal [odds ratio (OR 4·44)], ILI (OR 2·75) and dermatological (OR 6·67) complaints, and GP visits (OR 2·72). Having hand contact with floodwater was associated with gastrointestinal and dermatological complaints, whereas ILI complaints were associated with being engaged in post-flooding cleaning operations and having walked/cycled through floodwater. This study shows that floodwater-associated diseases occur in urban settings following extreme rainfall events in a high-income country. As pluvial floods are expected to escalate in the future due to global climate change, further research is warranted to determine the disease burden of pluvial flooding and to assess the effect of different interventions, including raising awareness among stakeholders.

In late 2014, a gastroenteritis outbreak occurred in a school in Shandong Province, eastern China. Hundreds of individuals developed the symptoms of diarrhoea and vomiting. Epidemiological investigation showed that food consumption was not linked to this outbreak, and unboiled direct drinking water was identified as the independent risk factor with a relative risk of 1·37 (95% confidence interval 1·03–1·83). Furthermore, examination of common bacterial and viral gastroenteritis pathogens was conducted on different specimens. Norovirus GI.1, GI.2, GI.6, GII.4, GII.6 and GII.13 were detected in clinical specimens and a water sample. GII.4 sequences between clinical specimens and the water sample displayed a close relationship and belonged to GII.4 variant Sydney 2012. These results indicate that direct drinking water contaminated by norovirus was responsible for this gastroenteritis outbreak. This study enriches our knowledge of waterborne norovirus outbreaks in China, and presents valuable prevention and control practices for policy-makers. In future, strengthened surveillance and supervision of direct drinking-water systems is needed.

The classical Ross–Macdonald model is often utilized to model vector-borne infections; however, this model fails on several fronts. First, using measured (or estimated) parameters, which values are accepted from the literature, the model predicts a much greater number of cases than what is usually observed. Second, the model predicts a single large outbreak that is followed by decades of much smaller outbreaks, which is not consistent with what is observed. Usually towns or cities report a number of recurrences for many years, even when environmental changes cannot explain the disappearance of the infection between the peaks. In this paper, we continue to examine the pitfalls in modelling this class of infections, and explain that, if properly used, the Ross–Macdonald model works and can be used to understand the patterns of epidemics and even, to some extent, be used to make predictions. We model several outbreaks of dengue fever and show that the variable pattern of yearly recurrence (or its absence) can be understood and explained by a simple Ross–Macdonald model modified to take into account human movement across a range of neighbourhoods within a city. In addition, we analyse the effect of seasonal variations in the parameters that determine the number, longevity and biting behaviour of mosquitoes. Based on the size of the first outbreak, we show that it is possible to estimate the proportion of the remaining susceptible individuals and to predict the likelihood and magnitude of the eventual subsequent outbreaks. This approach is described based on actual dengue outbreaks with different recurrence patterns from some Brazilian regions.

Gastrointestinal and respiratory infections in children attending daycare centres (DCCs) are common and compliance with hand hygiene (HH) guidelines to prevent infections is generally low. An intervention was developed to increase HH compliance and reduce infections in DCCs. The objective of this paper was to evaluate the effectiveness of this intervention on HH compliance. The intervention was evaluated in a two-arm cluster randomized controlled trial in 71 DCCs in The Netherlands. Thirty-six DCCs received the intervention including: (1) HH products; (2) training about HH guidelines; (3) two team training sessions aimed at goal setting and formulating HH improvement activities; and (4) reminders and cues for action (posters/stickers). Intervention DCCs were compared to 35 control DCCs that continued usual practice. HH compliance of caregivers and children was observed at baseline and at 1, 3 and 6 months follow-up. Using multilevel logistic regression, odds ratios (ORs) with 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were obtained for the intervention effect. Of 795 caregivers, 5042 HH opportunities for caregivers and 5606 opportunities for supervising children's HH were observed. At 1 month follow-up caregivers' compliance in intervention DCCs was 66% vs. 43% in control DCCs (OR 6·33, 95% CI 3·71–10·80), and at 6 months 59% vs. 44% (OR 4·13, 95% CI 2·33–7·32). No effect of the intervention was found on supervising children's HH (36% vs. 32%; OR 0·64, 95% CI 0·18–2·33). In conclusion, HH compliance of caregivers increased due to the intervention, therefore dissemination of the intervention can be considered.

This study aimed to compare the virology and epidemiology of epidemic keratoconjunctivitis (EKC), pharyngoconjunctival fever (PCF) and acute haemorrhagic conjunctivitis (AHC) outbreaks worldwide caused by the human adenovirus (HAdV) from 1953 to 2013. Eighty-three hexon sequences from 76 conjunctivitis outbreaks were analysed and subtyped using Mega 5.05, Clustal X and SimPlot software. Epidemiology was performed for the area, age and seasonal distribution. A phylogenetic analysis indicated that all the isolates could be divided into three subgenetic lineages, without a common ancestor. The major causes of the outbreaks were Ad8, Ad7 and Ad2 co-infection with enterovirus 70 (EV70) in EKC, PCF and AHC, respectively. The epidemiological findings suggested that EKC and AHC were circulating predominantly in Asia during the early winter and spring, whereas PCF was circulating mainly in China, Australia and the United States during the summer. This study suggests that EKC, AHC and PCF outbreaks have different circulating patterns throughout the world and are caused by different adenovirus serotypes. A global surveillance system should be established to monitor conjunctivitis outbreaks in the future.

We assessed evidence of exposure to viruses and bacteria in an unmanaged and long-isolated population of Soay sheep (Ovis aries) inhabiting Hirta, in the St Kilda archipelago, 65 km west of Benbecula in the Outer Hebrides of Scotland. The sheep harbour many metazoan and protozoan parasites but their exposure to viral and bacterial pathogens is unknown. We tested for herpes viral DNA in leucocytes and found that 21 of 42 tested sheep were infected with ovine herpesvirus 2 (OHV-2). We also tested 750 plasma samples collected between 1997 and 2010 for evidence of exposure to seven other viral and bacterial agents common in domestic Scottish sheep. We found evidence of exposure to Leptospira spp., with overall seroprevalence of 6·5%. However, serological evidence indicated that the population had not been exposed to border disease, parainfluenza, maedi-visna, or orf viruses, nor to Chlamydia abortus. Some sheep tested positive for antibodies against Mycobacterium avium subsp. paratuberculosis (MAP) but, in the absence of retrospective faecal samples, the presence of this infection could not be confirmed. The roles of importation, the pathogen–host interaction, nematode co-infection and local transmission warrant future investigation, to elucidate the transmission ecology and fitness effects of the few viral and bacterial pathogens on Hirta.

Data were pooled from three Australian sentinel general practice influenza surveillance networks to estimate Australia-wide influenza vaccine coverage and effectiveness against community presentations for laboratory-confirmed influenza for the 2012, 2013 and 2014 seasons. Patients presenting with influenza-like illness at participating GP practices were swabbed and tested for influenza. The vaccination odds of patients testing positive were compared with patients testing negative to estimate influenza vaccine effectiveness (VE) by logistic regression, adjusting for age group, week of presentation and network. Pooling of data across Australia increased the sample size for estimation from a minimum of 684 to 3,683 in 2012, from 314 to 2,042 in 2013 and from 497 to 3,074 in 2014. Overall VE was 38% [95% confidence interval (CI) 24–49] in 2012, 60% (95% CI 45–70) in 2013 and 44% (95% CI 31–55) in 2014. For A(H1N1)pdm09 VE was 54% (95% CI–28 to 83) in 2012, 59% (95% CI 33–74) in 2013 and 55% (95% CI 39–67) in 2014. For A(H3N2), VE was 30% (95% CI 14–44) in 2012, 67% (95% CI 39–82) in 2013 and 26% (95% CI 1–45) in 2014. For influenza B, VE was stable across years at 56% (95% CI 37–70) in 2012, 57% (95% CI 30–73) in 2013 and 54% (95% CI 21–73) in 2014. Overall VE against influenza was low in 2012 and 2014 when A(H3N2) was the dominant strain and the vaccine was poorly matched. In contrast, overall VE was higher in 2013 when A(H1N1)pdm09 dominated and the vaccine was a better match. Pooling data can increase the sample available and enable more precise subtype- and age group-specific estimates, but limitations remain.

In long-term care facilities (LTCFs), the elderly are apt to be infected because those with latent tuberculosis infections (LTBIs) are at an increased risk for reactivation and post-primary TB disease. We report an outbreak of TB in staff and residents in a LTCF. An outbreak investigation was conducted after two TB cases were reported from the LTCF. A tuberculin skin test (TST), bacteriological examination and chest radiograph were administered to all facility staff and residents. An outbreak is defined as at least two epidemiologically linked cases that have identical Mycobacterium tuberculosis genotype isolates. This outbreak infected eight residents and one staff member, who were confirmed to have TB in a LTCF between September 2011 and October 2012. Based on the Becker method, the latent and infectious periods were estimated at 223·6 and 55·9 days. Two initial TST-negative resident contacts were diagnosed as TB cases through comprehensive TB screening. Observing elderly people who have a negative TST after TB screening appears to be necessary, given the long latent period for controlling a TB outbreak in a LTCF. It is important to consider providing LTBI treatment for elderly contacts.

We investigated the antibiotic and heavy-metal resistance mechanisms, virulence genes and clonal relationships of macrolide- and/or lincosamide-resistant (M+/−LR) Streptococcus agalactiae (group B Streptococcus, GBS) isolates from pregnant women in La Rioja in Northern Spain, a region with a significant immigrant population. In total 375 GBS isolates were recovered during 2011. About three-quarters of isolates were from European nationals and the remainder distributed among 23 other nationalities. Seventy-five (20%) were classified as M+/−LR strains and 28 (37%) of these were resistant to ⩾3 classes of antibiotics. Capsular serotypes III (29·3%), V (21·3%) and II (12%) were the most frequent. A wide variety of antibiotic resistance genes were detected in M+/−LR strains; notably, 5·3% harboured the lsa(C) gene associated with cross-resistance, and tet(W) was identified in a single strain. We report, for the first time, the detection of cadmium and copper resistance encoded by tcrB + cadA + cadC genes in 20 M+/−LR strains, which raises the possibility of co-selection of antibiotic and heavy-metal resistance disseminated through mobile genetic elements. The M+/−LR strains were highly diverse by DNA macrorestriction profiles (65 patterns) and 16 multilocus sequence types (STs) distributed among six clonal complexes; the most frequent were ST1, ST19, and ST12, and two strains were novel (ST586 and ST601). In conclusion, a wide diversity of genetic lineages of macrolide, lincosamide and heavy-metal- resistant GBS strains was observed in an ethnically diverse maternal population.

Gastroenteritis remains an important cause of morbidity and mortality worldwide. With the introduction of vaccines against rotavirus, interest has shifted to understanding the epidemiology of norovirus (NoV). While the importance of NoV in gastroenteritis outbreaks is well established, its role in sporadic gastroenteritis is less known. To better define the role of NoV as a cause of sporadic gastroenteritis we investigated its prevalence in the patients seen in our paediatric hospital with special emphasis on its seasonal and age distribution. Over a 12-month period discarded stool specimens submitted to our paediatric hospital for testing of an infectious aetiology were retrieved and additionally tested for NoV by real-time reverse transcriptase–polymerase chain reaction; demographical and clinical information were also obtained. Overall, NoV was the single most commonly identified pathogen and found in 68/892 (7·6%) total specimens or 68/258 (26%) of pathogen-positive specimens. The highest rates of NoV were detected in children aged 6 months to 4 years (50/332, 15·1%) and presenting between October and January (46/314, 14·7%). NoV has become the main cause of gastroenteritis in our paediatric population.

A total of 1145 samples were collected from chicken breeder farms, hatcheries, broiler farms, a slaughterhouse and retail refrigerated chicken stores in an integrated broiler supply chain in Guangdong Province, China, in 2013. One-hundred and two Salmonella enterica strains were isolated and subjected to serotyping, antimicrobial susceptibility testing, virulence profile determination and molecular subtyping by pulsed field gel electrophoresis (PFGE). The contamination rates in samples from breeder farms, hatcheries, broiler farms, the slaughterhouse and retail stores were 1·46%, 4·31%, 7·00%, 62·86% and 54·67%, respectively. The isolated strains of S. enterica belonged to 10 serotypes; most of them were S. Weltevreden (46·08%, 47/102) and S. Agona (18·63%, 19/102). Isolates were frequently resistant to streptomycin (38·2%), tetracycline (36·3%), sulfisoxazole (35·3%) and gentamicin (34·3%); 31·4% of isolates were multidrug resistant. The isolates were screened for 10 virulence factors. The Salmonella pathogenicity island genes avrA, ssaQ, mgtC, siiD, and sopB and the fimbrial gene bcfC were present in 100% of the strains. PFGE genotyping of the 102 S. enterica isolates yielded 24 PFGE types at an 85% similarity threshold. The PFGE patterns show that the genotypes of S. enterica in the production chain are very diverse, but some strains have 100% similarity in different parts of the production chain, which indicates that some S. enterica persist throughout the broiler supply chain.

Multiple cases of atypical scrapie in the same holding and co-existence with classical scrapie have been reported in Great Britain. A two-stage simulation tool was developed by combining a sampling algorithm and a hierarchical Bayesian model to simulate the number of positive cases of atypical scrapie from: (i) random sampling and (ii) using the actual sampled population in Great Britain, being the output probability of detection of flocks with one and more cases. Cluster analysis was conducted to assess the level of geographical over- and under-sampling over the years. The probability of detecting at least two cases of atypical scrapie in the same holding is much lower in simulated random data than in simulated actual data for all scenarios. Sampling bias in the selection of sheep for testing led to multiple sampling from fewer but larger holdings, Scotland, and areas of Wales were under-sampled and the South-West and East of England oversampled. The pattern of atypical scrapie cases observed is unlikely to be explained by a multi-case event epidemiologically linked. The co-existence of classical and atypical scrapie is a rare event with 19 holdings detected in GB and does not suggest an epidemiological link between the two types of disease.

To identify predictive factors and mortality of patients with influenza admitted to intensive care units (ICU) we carried out a prospective cohort study of patients hospitalized with laboratory-confirmed influenza in adult ICUs in a network of Canadian hospitals between 2006 and 2012. There were 626 influenza-positive patients admitted to ICUs over the six influenza seasons, representing 17·9% of hospitalized influenza patients, 3·1/10 000 hospital admissions. Variability occurred in admission rate and proportion of hospital influenza patients who were admitted to ICUs (proportion range by year: 11·7–29·4%; 21·3% in the 2009–2010 pandemic). In logistic regression models ICU patients were younger during the pandemic and post-pandemic period, and more likely to be obese than hospital non-ICU patients. Influenza B accounted for 14·2% of all ICU cases and had a similar ICU admission rate as influenza A. Influenza-related mortality was 17·8% in ICU patients compared to 2·0% in non-ICU patients.

Over the last 30 years, HIV/AIDS has emerged as a major global health challenge. This study evaluates the change of HIV/AIDS mortality rates in Asian and North African countries from 1990 to 2010 using the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) study. HIV/AIDS mortality rates were derived from the GBD database from 1990 to 2010, for 52 countries in Asia and North Africa. First, a Latent Growth Model was employed to assess the change in AIDS mortality rate over time in six different regions of Asia, and also the change in AIDS mortality rate over time for males and females in Asia and North Africa. Finally, Latent Growth Mixture Models (LGMMs) were applied to identify distinct groups in which countries within each group have similar trends over time. Our results showed that increase in mortality rate over time for males is about three times greater than for females. The highest and lowest trend of AIDS mortality rates were observed in South-East Asia and high-income Asia-Pacific regions, respectively. The LGMM allocated most countries in the South and South-East region into two classes with the highest trend of AIDS mortality rates. Although the HIV/AIDS mortality rates are decreasing in some countries and clusters, the general trend in the Asian continent is upwards. Therefore, it is necessary to provide programmes to achieve the goal of access to HIV prevention measures, treatment, care, and support for high-risk groups, especially in countries with a higher trend of AIDS mortality rates.

Universal vaccination of children for hepatitis A virus (HAV) has emerged as a cost-effective strategy to prevent this infection in regions with high incidence of symptomatic disease. Age-specific seroprevalence surveys are practical and reliable methods to estimate the rate of susceptibility in populations, and to help the implementation of vaccination policies. We surveyed the age-specific HAV seroprevalence in a nationally representative sample of Iranian adolescent students aged 10–18 years. Serum samples (n = 2494) were tested by enzyme immunoassay for total anti-HAV antibody. The overall rate of HAV seropositivity was 64% [95% confidence interval (CI), 62–66), which increased sharply from 14·8% (95% CI 7–23) at age 10 years to 72·9% (95% CI 68–78) at age 13 years, without a significant increase up to age 18 years. No significant difference in HAV seroprevalence was observed between males and females (63% vs. 65·1%), or urban and rural areas (63·4% vs. 65·2%); the seropositivity rate was similar in four different socioeconomic regions of Iran. We conclude that the seroconversion rate of HAV is high in Iranian adolescents and therefore mass vaccination of children may be necessary and should be considered by national health authorities.

The purpose of this study is to determine how demographic and exposure factors related to giardiasis vary between travel and endemic cases. Exposure and demographic data were gathered by public health inspectors from giardiasis cases reported from the Region of Waterloo from 2006 to 2012. Logistic regression models were fit to assess differences in exposure to risk factors for giardiasis between international travel-related cases and Canadian acquired cases while controlling for age and sex. Multinomial regression models were also fit to assess the differences in risk profiles between international and domestic travel-related cases and endemic cases. Travel-related cases (both international and domestic) were more likely to go camping or kayaking, and consume untreated water compared to endemic cases. Domestic travel-related cases were more likely to visit a petting zoo or farm compared to endemic cases, and were more likely to swim in freshwater compared to endemic cases and international travel-related cases. International travellers were more likely to swim in an ocean compared to both domestic travel-related and endemic cases. These findings demonstrate that travel-related and endemic cases have different risk exposure profiles which should be considered for appropriately targeting health promotion campaigns.