The 2014 Ebola epidemic was the largest on record. It evidenced the need for improved models of the spread of Ebola. In this research we focus on modelling Ebola within a small village or community. Specifically, we investigate the potential of basic Susceptible-Exposed-Infectious-Recovered (SEIR) models to describe the initial Ebola outbreak, which occurred in Meliandou, Guinea. Data from the World Health Organization is used to compare the accuracy of various models in order to select the most accurate models of transmission and disease-induced responses. Our results suggest that (i) density-dependent transmission and mortality-induced behavioural changes shaped the course of the Ebola epidemic in Meliandou, while (ii) frequency-dependent transmission, disease-induced emigration, and infection-induced behavioural changes are not consistent with the data from this epidemic.

Rotavirus (RV) infection causes acute infantile diarrhoea in humans and animals and remains a major concern for vaccine development. The close proximity of humans to animals may foster cross-species infection resulting in the emergence of novel/unusual strains by genetic reassortment. In this study, we characterized 500 diarrhoeal samples for group A rotaviruses (RVA) from children (n = 290), piglets (n = 95) and calves (n = 115) in Northeast India during 2012–2013. The data showed that 142/500 (28·4%) faecal samples were positive for RVA with the highest level of infection detected in piglets (57/142, 40·1%) followed by children (51/142, 35·9%) and calves (34/142, 23·9%). Sequence-based G- and P-typing showed G1P[8] (25%) and G1P[7] (35%) were the prevailing genotypes in both humans and animals. Single cases of unusual genotypes, i.e. G9P[8], G5P[8] in humans and G1P[13], G1P[23] and G3P[7] in animals were also identified. Cluster analyses of the sequences showed regional strains were genetically closer to their homologous strains. However, human G5P[8] and porcine G1P[8] strains showed homology to heterologous hosts of their prototype strains. The subsequent global spread of unusual RV strains may result in their establishment over time, presenting challenges to future vaccine evaluation programmes. More studies on emerging genotypes are required to elucidate how RVA strains evolve post-vaccination. This study supports the need for continuous surveillance of RVA infections after detecting from diverse hosts in a common setting.

Tuberculosis (TB) in older people is a significant public health problem in low TB-incidence countries. Older persons have increased TB incidence, higher reactivation and mortality. A delay in diagnosis and initiation of TB treatment in patients with atypical clinical and radiological features is a significant factor of widespread transmission. This study aimed to evaluate the cost-effectiveness of interferon-gamma release assays [IGRAs; QuantiFERON®-TB Gold In-Tube (QFT) and T-SPOT®.TB (T-SPOT)] compared to the tuberculin skin test (TST) and chest X-ray (CXR) examination for TB screening for nursing homes. Decision trees and Markov models were constructed using a societal perspective on a lifetime horizon. Seven strategies: no screening, TST, QFT, T-SPOT, TST followed by QFT, TST followed by T-SPOT, and CXR were considered. QFT [US$ 401·9, 4·36 707 QALY (year 2014 values)] was the most cost-effective at the willingness-to-pay level of US$ 50 000/QALY gained. TST followed by QFT was the most cost-effective in residents with comorbidities. CXR was less cost-effective. Cost-effectiveness was sensitive to latent TB infection (LTBI) rate and bacillus Calmette-Guérin vaccination rate. Effective LTBI screening using IGRA is recommended to prevent TB transmission not only in nursing homes but also in local communities in low-incidence countries.

Salmonella spp. is the causative agent of a foodborne disease called salmonellosis, which is the second most commonly reported gastrointestinal infection in the European Union (EU). Although over the years the annual number of cases of foodborne salmonellosis within the EU has decreased markedly, in 2014, a total of 88 715 confirmed cases were still reported by 28 EU Member States. The European Food Safety Authority reported that, after the household environment, the most frequent settings for the transmission of infection were catering services. As evidenced by the reviewed literature, which was published over the last 15 years (2000–2014), the most frequently reported causative agents were Salmonella Enteritidis and Salmonella Typhimurium serovars. These studies on outbreaks indicated the involvement of various facilities, including hospital restaurants, takeaways, ethnic restaurants, hotels, in-flight catering, one fast-food outlet and the restaurant of an amusement park. The most commonly reported sources of infection were eggs and/or egg-containing foods, followed by meat- and vegetable-based preparations. Epidemiological and microbiological studies allowed common risk factors to be identified, including the occurrence of cross-contamination between heat-treated foods and raw materials or improperly cleaned food-contact surfaces.

Norovirus (NoV) epidemics normally peak in December in Japan; however, the peak in the 2009–2010 season was delayed until the fourth week of January 2010. We suspected intensive hand hygiene that was conducted for a previous pandemic influenza in 2009 as the cause of this delay. We analysed the NoV epidemic trend, based on national surveillance data, and its associations with monthly output data for hand hygiene products, including alcohol-based skin antiseptics and hand soap. The delayed peak in the NoV incidence in the 2009–2010 season had the lowest number of recorded cases of the five seasons studied (2006–2007 to 2010–2011). GII.4 was the most commonly occurring genotype. The monthly relative risk of NoV and monthly output of both alcohol-based skin antiseptics and hand soap were significantly and negatively correlated. Our findings suggest an association between hand hygiene using these products and prevention of NoV transmission.

Using a set of statistical methods and HIV mathematical models applied on nationally representative Demographic and Health Survey data, we characterized HIV serodiscordancy patterns and HIV transmission dynamics in stable couples (SCs) in four countries: Cambodia, the Dominican Republic, Haiti, and India. The majority of SCs affected by HIV were serodiscordant, and about a third of HIV-infected persons had uninfected partners. Overall, nearly two-thirds of HIV infections occurred in individuals in SCs, but only about half of these infections were due to transmissions within serodiscordant couples. The majority of HIV incidence in the population occurred through extra-partner encounters in SCs. There is similarity in HIV epidemiology in SCs between these countries and countries in sub-Saharan Africa, despite the difference in scale of epidemics. It appears that HIV epidemiology in SCs may share similar patterns globally, possibly because it is a natural ‘spillover’ effect of HIV dynamics in high-risk populations.

The incidence of Mediterranean spotted fever (MSF) in Catalonia (Spain) has decreased in the last two decades. The prevalence of antibodies to Rickettsia conorii in human beings and dogs in the region of Vallès Occidental (Catalonia) was assessed by indirect immunofluorescence, and the results compared with those obtained in a similar study from 1987. Nineteen (5·0%) out of 383 human serum samples had antibodies to R. conorii. This seroprevalence was significantly lower (11·5%) (P = 0·003) than that recorded in the 1987 survey. Forty-two out (42·0%) of 100 canine serum samples had antibodies to R. conorii. A high proportion of the studied dogs (91·0%) were receiving anti-tick treatment, mainly with permethrin-imidacloprid spot-on (Advantix, Bayer, Germany). The current canine seroprevalence was not significantly different from that recorded in the 1987 survey (36.9%). In conclusion, this study shows a significant decrease in the prevalence of antibodies to R. conorii in the human population of Catalonia in the last 20 years, which corresponds with a decrease in the number of cases of MSF. We suggest that the widespread use of anti-tick treatment in dogs could limit the introduction of ticks to humans due to a reduction of infestation duration in dogs, thus contributing to the decrease in MSF incidence.

A case-control study was conducted to investigate an outbreak of 46 cases of cryptosporidiosis in visitors to a petting farm in England. Details of exposures on the farm were collected for 38 cases and 39 controls, recruited through snowball sampling. Multivariable logistic regression identified that cases were 5·5 times more likely than controls to have eaten without washing their hands [95% confidence interval (CI) 1·51–19·9, P = 0·01] and 10 times less likely to report being informed of risk of infection on arrival (odds ratio 0·10, 95% CI 0·01–0·71, P = 0·02). An uncommon Cryptosporidium parvum gp60 subtype (IIaA19G1R1) was identified in a lamb faecal sample and all subtyped cases (n = 22). We conclude that lack of verbal advice and non-compliance with hand washing are significantly associated with a risk of cryptosporidiosis on open farms. These findings highlight the public health importance of effectively communicating risk to petting farm visitors in order to prevent future outbreaks of zoonotic infections.

Mathematical modelling is an important tool for understanding the dynamics of the spread of infectious diseases, which could be the result of a natural outbreak or of the intentional release of pathogenic biological agents. Decision makers and policymakers responsible for strategies to contain disease, prevent epidemics and fight possible bioterrorism attacks, need accurate computational tools, based on mathematical modelling, for preventing or even managing these complex situations. In this article, we tested the validity, and demonstrate the reliability, of an open-source software, the Spatio-Temporal Epidemiological Modeler (STEM), designed to help scientists and public health officials to evaluate and create models of emerging infectious diseases, analysing three real cases of Ebola haemorrhagic fever (EHF) outbreaks: Uganda (2000), Gabon (2001) and Guinea (2014). We discuss the cases analysed through the simulation results obtained with STEM in order to demonstrate the capability of this software in helping decision makers plan interventions in case of biological emergencies.

Human parechoviruses (HPeVs) mainly infect young children, causing mild gastrointestinal and respiratory diseases; however, HPeV type 3 (HPeV3) causes severe systemic diseases in young infants. To clarify the characteristics of HPeV infections from the aspects of seropositivity and epidemiology, we measured neutralizing antibody titres against HPeVs in individuals of in different age groups and isolated HPeVs from various clinical specimens in Niigata, Japan. The seropositivity to HPeV1, 3, and 6 was higher in older age group. HPeV1 and HPeV6 seropositivities were maintained in adults, whereas HPeV3 seropositivity was significantly lower in subjects aged >40 years (P < 0·001, P = 0·003). This result suggests that adults have increased susceptibility to HPeV3 as they lack neutralizing antibodies against HPeV3. Of the HPeV isolates, HPeV1 and HPeV6 frequently caused gastrointestinal symptoms. Moreover, gastroenteritis patients with HPeV1 and HPeV6 were mainly aged 6 months–1 year and ⩾2 years, respectively. In contrast, only HPeV3 was isolated from neonates and young infants with sepsis or sepsis-like syndrome, often with respiratory symptoms. These results suggest that clinical symptoms are clinically related to HPeV genotype and patients’ age.

We aimed to assess the performance of active surveillance for hospitalized childhood encephalitis in New South Wales (NSW) using the Paediatric Active Enhanced Disease Surveillance (PAEDS) network to inform methodology for the nationwide Australian childhood encephalitis (ACE) study. We piloted active surveillance for suspected encephalitis from May to December 2013 at the Children's Hospital at Westmead, Sydney, NSW. Cases were ascertained using four screening methods: weekday nurse screening of admission records (PAEDS), cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) microscopy records, magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) reports, and pharmacy dispensing records. Comprehensive clinical data were prospectively collected on consented participants and subsequently reviewed by an expert panel. Cases were categorized as confirmed encephalitis or ‘not encephalitis’; encephalitis cases were sub-categorized as infectious, immune-mediated or unknown. We performed an ICD-10 diagnostic code audit of hospitalizations for the pilot period. We compared case ascertainment in the four screening methods and with the ICD code audit. Forty-eight cases of suspected encephalitis were identified by one or more methods. PAEDS was the most efficient mechanism (yield 34%), followed by MRI, CSF, and pharmacy audits (yield 14%, 12%, and 7% respectively). Twenty-five cases met the criteria for confirmed encephalitis. PAEDS was the most sensitive of the mechanisms for confirmed encephalitis (92%) with a positive predictive value (PPV) of 72%. The ICD audit was moderately sensitive (64%) but poorly specific (Sp 9%, PPV 14%). Of the 25 confirmed encephalitis cases, 19 (76%) were sub-categorized as infectious, three (12%) were immune-mediated, and three (12%) were ‘unknown’. We identified encephalitis cases associated with two infectious disease outbreaks (enterovirus 71, parechovirus 3). PAEDS is an efficient, sensitive and accurate surveillance mechanism for detecting cases of childhood encephalitis including those associated with emerging infectious diseases. Active surveillance significantly increases the ascertainment of encephalitis cases compared with passive approaches.

This study aimed to estimate the prevalence and risk factors for hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection in Mexican Americans living in South Texas. We tested plasma for the presence of HCV antibody from the Cameron County Hispanic Cohort (CCHC), a randomized, population-based cohort in an economically disadvantaged Mexican American community on the United States/Mexico border with high rates of chronic disease. A weighted prevalence of HCV antibody of 2·3% [n = 1131, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1·2–3·4] was found. Participants with diabetes had low rates of HCV antibody (0·4%, 95% CI 0·0–0·9) and logistic regression revealed a statistically significant negative association between HCV and diabetes (OR 0·20, 95% CI 0·05–0·77) after adjusting for sociodemographic and clinical factors. This conflicts with reported positive associations of diabetes and HCV infection. No classic risk factors were identified, but important differences between genders emerged in analysis. This population-based study of HCV in Mexican Americans suggests that national studies do not adequately describe the epidemiology of HCV in this border community and that unique risk factors may be involved.

The activity and circulation of influenza viruses in Argentina was studied during 2012 as part of the Argentinean Surveillance for Influenza and other Respiratory Viruses, in the context of Global Influenza Surveillance. The antigenicity and molecular characteristics of haemagglutinins (HA) of circulating influenza A and B viruses were analysed to assess the emergence of virus variants. Susceptibility to oseltamivir and zanamivir was evaluated by enzymatic assay and results were backed-up by sequencing of the neuraminidase (NA) genes. During the 2012 season, influenza virus circulation in Argentina was detected from weeks 24 to 51. The HA sequences of the studied A(H1N1)pdm09 subtype viruses segregated in a different genetic group compared to those identified during the 2009 pandemic, although they were still closely related antigenically to the vaccine virus A/California/07/2009. The HA sequences of the A(H3N2) viruses analysed fell into the A/Victoria/208/2009 clade, genetic group 3C. A mixed circulation of virus variants belonging to B/Victoria and B/Yamagata lineages was detected, with B/Victoria being dominant. All viruses tested were sensitive to oseltamivir and zanamivir except one. This isolate, an A(H1N1)pdm09 virus possessing the substitution NA-N295S, showed highly reduced inhibition by oseltamivir and reduced inhibition by zanamivir. Virological and epidemiological surveillance remains critical for detection of evolving influenza viruses.

Herpes simplex virus (HSV) is one of the most commonly identified infectious aetiologies of encephalitis in North America and Europe. The epidemiology of encephalitis beyond these regions, however, is poorly defined. During 2009–2012 we enrolled 313 patients in a multicentre prospective study of encephalitis in Peru, 45 (14·4%) of whom had confirmed HSV infection. Of 38 patients with known HSV type, 84% had HSV-1 and 16% had HSV-2. Patients with HSV infection were significantly more likely to present in the summer months (44·4% vs. 20·0%, P = 0·003) and have nausea (60·0% vs. 39·8%, P = 0·01) and rash (15·6% vs. 5·3%, P = 0·01) compared to patients without HSV infection. These findings highlight differences in the epidemiology and clinical presentation of HSV encephalitis outside of the Northern Hemisphere that warrant further investigation. Furthermore, there is an urgent need for improved HSV diagnostic capacity and availability of intravenous acyclovir in Peru.

Timely recruitment of population controls in infectious disease outbreak investigations is challenging. We evaluated the timeliness and cost of using a market research panel as a sampling frame for recruiting controls in a case-control study during an outbreak of Salmonella Mikawasima in the UK in 2013. We deployed a web-survey by email to targeted members of a market research panel (panel controls) in parallel to the outbreak control team interviewing randomly selected public health staff by telephone and completing paper-based questionnaires (staff controls). Recruitment and completion of exposure history web-surveys for panel controls (n = 123) took 14 h compared to 15 days for staff controls (n = 82). The average staff-time cost per questionnaire for staff controls was £13·13 compared to an invoiced cost of £3·60 per panel control. Differences in the distribution of some exposures existed between these control groups but case-control studies using each group found that illness was associated with consumption of chicken outside of the home and chicken from local butchers. Recruiting market research panel controls offers time and resource savings. More rapid investigations would enable more prompt implementation of control measures. We recommend that this method of recruiting controls is considered in future investigations and assessed further to better understand strengths and limitations.

We assessed if there has been a decline in the median number of reported lifetime sexual partners in Kenya following the AIDS epidemic. The Wilcoxon rank-sum test was used to compare the median and interquartile range (IQR) of the number of lifetime sexual partners for men aged 20–54 years in the 1993 and 2008 Kenyan Demographic Health Surveys. The median number of sexual partners in 1993 increased rapidly to 10 partners reported at age 30 years then plateaued at this level. In 2008, the median number of sexual partners plateaued at around half the value of the 1993 plateau. The median number of lifetime sexual partners for men aged 20–54 years declined from 10 (IQR 4-20) in 1993 to 3 (IQR 2-7) in 2008 (P < 0·001). This decline could be due to a combination of the effects of AIDS mortality and a misreporting bias.

The incidence of childhood respiratory infections in Greenland is among the highest globally. We performed a population-based study of 352 Greenlandic children aged 0–6 years aiming to describe rates and risk factors for carriage of four key bacteria associated with respiratory infections, their antimicrobial susceptibility and inter-bacterial associations. Nasopharyngeal swabs were tested for Streptococcus pneumoniae grouped by serotypes included (VT) or not included (NVT) in the 13-valent pneumococcal conjugate vaccine, non-typable Haemophilus influenzae (NTHi), Staphylococcus aureus and Moraxella catarrhalis. S. pneumoniae was detected from age 2 weeks with a peak carriage rate of 60% in 2-year-olds. Young age and having siblings attending a daycare institution were associated with pneumococcal carriage. Overall co-colonization with ⩾2 of the studied bacteria was 52%. NTHi showed a positive association with NVT pneumococci and M. catarrhalis, respectively, M. catarrhalis was positively associated with S. pneumoniae, particular VT pneumococci, whereas S. aureus were negatively associated with NTHi and M. catarrhalis. Nasopharyngeal bacterial carriage was present unusually early in life and with frequent co-colonization. Domestic crowding increased odds of carriage. Due to important bacterial associations we suggest future surveillance of pneumococcal conjugate vaccine's impact on carriage in Greenland to also include other pathogens.

Non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drugs (NSAIDs) may inhibit antibody production by peripheral blood mononuclear cells; one consequence of this could be decreased effectiveness of vaccines in NSAID users. Because many older adults use low-dose aspirin for primary or secondary prevention of coronary events, any inhibitory effect of aspirin on vaccine immune response could reduce the benefits of vaccination programmes in older adults. We tested whether immune response to vaccination differed between users vs. non-users of low-dose aspirin, using data from four randomized trials of monovalent 2009 pandemic influenza A(H1N1) vaccine. Geometric mean haemagglutination inhibition antibody titres were not significantly lower in low-dose aspirin users compared to non-users. Our results provide reassurance that influenza vaccination effectiveness is probably not reduced in older adults taking chronic low-dose aspirin.

Giardia intestinalis is the leading parasitic aetiology of human enteric infections in the United States, with an estimated 1·2 million cases occurring annually. To better understand transmission, we analysed data on all giardiasis outbreaks reported to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention for 1971–2011. The 242 outbreaks, affecting ~41 000 persons, resulted from waterborne (74·8%), foodborne (15·7%), person-to-person (2·5%), and animal contact (1·2%) transmission. Most (74·6%) waterborne outbreaks were associated with drinking water, followed by recreational water (18·2%). Problems with water treatment, untreated groundwater, and distribution systems were identified most often during drinking water-associated outbreak investigations; problems with water treatment declined after the 1980s. Most recreational water-associated outbreaks were linked to treated swimming venues, with pools and wading pools implicated most often. Produce was implicated most often in foodborne outbreaks. Additionally, foods were most commonly prepared in a restaurant and contaminated by a food handler. Lessons learned from examining patterns in outbreaks over time can help prevent future disease. Groundwater and distribution system vulnerabilities, inadequate pool disinfection, fruit and vegetable contamination, and poor food handler hygiene are promising targets for giardiasis prevention measures.

The Ebola virus disease (EVD) outbreak in West Africa may affect healthcare attendance. We describe, in the Guinean prefecture of Guéckédou, trends in attendance of public healthcare structures and the main reported diagnoses over the year following the EVD outbreak notification (March 2014). Monthly numbers of visits and main diagnoses such as malaria, schistosomiasis and measles reported by Guéckédou health centres and health posts were described from January 2012 to March 2015. The median number of visits was 15 724/month. From 1 April to 30 September 2014 (EVD outbreak peak), 90 947 visits were reported, representing decreases of 4·8% and 7·4% compared to 2013 and 2012, respectively. Following December 2014 (last EVD notification in Guéckédou), visits increased from 12 540 in January to 16 032 in March 2015. Malaria seasonality was observed in 2014 with 22 519 notifications from 1 April to 31 July. No seasonality was observed for intestinal schistosomiasis (median 485 cases/month); however, a peak was notified in March 2014 (824 cases). Over the study period, all measles cases were notified in 2015 (183 cases). Reduction in healthcare attendance in Guéckédou was modest during the EVD outbreak. Enhanced infectious disease surveillance is a challenge in this context, due to the impact of EVD on traditional prevention programmes.