A prognosis serves important functions for the management of common mental disorders in primary care.

To establish the accuracy of the general practitioner's (GP) prognosis.

The agreement between GP prognosis and observed course was determined for 138 cases of ICD–10 depression and 65 of generalised anxiety disorder, identified among consecutive attenders of 18 GPs.

Modest agreement between GP prognosis and course was found, both for depression (κ=0.21) and generalised anxiety (κ=0.111). Better agreement (κ=0.45 for depression, and κ=0.33 for generalised anxiety) was observed between the course and predictions from a statistical model based on information potentially available to the GP at the time the prognosis was made. This model assesses attainable performance for GPs.

General practitioners do a fair job in predicting the 1-year course of depression and generalised anxiety. Even so, their performance falls significantly short of attainable performance.

Depression is associated with an increased dementia risk, but the nature of the association in the long-term remains unresolved, and the role of sociodemographic factors mainly unexplored.

To assess whether a history of clinical depression is associated with dementia in later life, controlling for observed sociodemographic factors and unobserved factors shared by siblings, and to test whether gender, educational level and marital status modify the association.

We conducted a national cohort study of 1 616 321 individuals aged 65 years or older between 2001 and 2018 using administrative healthcare data. A history of depression was ascertained from the national hospital register in the period 15–30 years prior to dementia follow-up. We used conventional and sibling fixed-effects Cox regression models to analyse the association between a history of depression, sociodemographic factors and dementia.

A history of depression was related to an adjusted hazard ratio of 1.27 (95% CI 1.23–1.31) for dementia in the conventional Cox model and of 1.55 (95% CI 1.09–2.20) in the sibling fixed-effects model. Depression was related to an elevated dementia risk similarly across all levels of education (test for interaction, P = 0.84), but the association was weaker for the widowed than for the married (P = 0.003), and stronger for men than women (P = 0.006). The excess risk among men attenuated following covariate adjustment (P = 0.10).

This study shows that a history of depression is consistently associated with later-life dementia risk. The results support the hypothesis that depression is an aetiological risk factor for dementia.

Criminal offending is strongly transmitted across generations.

To clarify the contribution of rearing environment to cross-generational transmission of crime.

Using Swedish national registries, we identified 1176 full-sibling and 3085 half-sibling sets from high-risk families where at least one sibling was adopted and the other raised by the biological parents.

Risk for criminal conviction was substantially lower in the full- and half-siblings who were adopted v. home-reared (hazard ratios (HR) = 0.56, 95% CI 0.50–0.64 and 0.60, 95% CI 0.56–0.65, respectively). The protective effect of adoption was significantly stronger in sibships with two v. one high-risk parent.

Using matched high-risk full- and half-siblings, we found replicated evidence that (a) rearing environment has a strong impact on risk for criminal conviction, (b) high-quality rearing environments have especially strong effects in those at high familial risk for criminal offending and (c) the protective effects of adoption are stronger for more severe crimes and for repeated offending.

Adolescent subthreshold emotional symptoms arise from impaired self-referential information-processing and approach–avoidance behaviour network integration, which compromises goal evaluation and pursuit strategies.

We investigated whether impairment of negative emotion (goal) reappraisal strategies (self-focussing and self-distancing) generates emotional symptoms (emotional disorders precursors).

Using functional magnetic resonance imaging and a triple-network model (default mode, executive control and salience), functional connectivity differences within and between networks, and their modulation by task and relationships with emotional symptoms were determined in healthy adolescent girls (N = 202) grouped by presence or absence of emotional symptoms.

The groups differed in spectral power distribution and in dorsal default mode network and right executive control network modulation when self-focussing and self-distancing, respectively. Girls without emotional symptoms had greater spectral power and less network modulation. Greater spectral power was associated with reduced emotional symptoms and less dorsal default mode network modulation when self-focussing.

The early phases of anxiety and depressive disorders in adolescence are marked by emotional symptoms that usually emerge in the context of negative life events. To contend with the negative effect of such events, a typical reappraisal strategy is to distance oneself and switch the focus of one's thinking. This brain-imaging study in adolescent girls prone to the development of emotional disorders has found functional changes in key neural networks that are involved in reappraisal and shown that this process is impaired. This is important because it provides an early indication of these common disorders and a potential target for psychological interventions.

Relapses in major depression are frequent and are associated with a high burden of disease. Although short-term studies suggest a normalisation of depression-associated brain functional alterations directly after treatment, long-term investigations are sparse.

To examine brain function during negative emotion processing in association with course of illness over a 2-year span.

In this prospective case–control study, 72 in-patients with current depression and 42 healthy controls were investigated during a negative emotional face processing paradigm, at baseline and after 2 years. According to their course of illness during the study interval, patients were divided into subgroups (n = 25 no-relapse, n = 47 relapse). The differential changes in brain activity were investigated by a group × time analysis of covariance for the amygdala, hippocampus, insula and at whole-brain level.

A significant relapse × time interaction emerged within the amygdala (PTFCE-FWE = 0.011), insula (PTFCE-FWE = 0.001) and at the whole-brain level mainly in the temporal and prefrontal cortex (PTFCE-FWE = 0.027), resulting from activity increases within the no-relapse group, whereas in the relapse group, activity decreased during the study interval. At baseline, the no-relapse group showed amygdala, hippocampus and insula hypoactivity compared with healthy controls and the relapse group.

This study reveals course of illness-associated activity changes in emotion processing areas. Patients in full remission show a normalisation of their baseline hypo-responsiveness to the activation level of healthy controls after 2 years. Brain function during emotion processing could further serve as a potential predictive marker for future relapse.