A clinical tool to estimate the risk of treatment-resistant schizophrenia (TRS) in people with first-episode psychosis (FEP) would inform early detection of TRS and overcome the delay of up to 5 years in starting TRS medication.

To develop and evaluate a model that could predict the risk of TRS in routine clinical practice.

We used data from two UK-based FEP cohorts (GAP and AESOP-10) to develop and internally validate a prognostic model that supports identification of patients at high-risk of TRS soon after FEP diagnosis. Using sociodemographic and clinical predictors, a model for predicting risk of TRS was developed based on penalised logistic regression, with missing data handled using multiple imputation. Internal validation was undertaken via bootstrapping, obtaining optimism-adjusted estimates of the model's performance. Interviews and focus groups with clinicians were conducted to establish clinically relevant risk thresholds and understand the acceptability and perceived utility of the model.

We included seven factors in the prediction model that are predominantly assessed in clinical practice in patients with FEP. The model predicted treatment resistance among the 1081 patients with reasonable accuracy; the model's C-statistic was 0.727 (95% CI 0.723–0.732) prior to shrinkage and 0.687 after adjustment for optimism. Calibration was good (expected/observed ratio: 0.999; calibration-in-the-large: 0.000584) after adjustment for optimism.

We developed and internally validated a prediction model with reasonably good predictive metrics. Clinicians, patients and carers were involved in the development process. External validation of the tool is needed followed by co-design methodology to support implementation in early intervention services.

Higher intensity of psychotherapy might improve treatment outcome in depression, especially in those with comorbid personality disorder.

To compare the effects of 25 individual sessions (weekly) of two forms of psychotherapy – short-term psychoanalytic supportive psychotherapy (SPSP) and schema therapy – with the same treatments given for 50 sessions (twice weekly) in people with depression and personality disorder. Trial registration: NTR5941.

We conducted a pragmatic, double-randomised clinical trial and, over 37 months, recruited 246 adult out-patients with comorbid depression/dysthymia and personality disorder. A 2 × 2 factorial design randomised participants to 25 or 50 sessions of SPSP or schema therapy. The primary outcome was change in depression severity over 1 year on the Beck Depression Inventory II (BDI-II). Secondary outcomes were remission both of depression and personality disorder.

Compared with 25 sessions, participants who received 50 sessions showed a significantly greater decrease in depressive symptoms over time (time × session dosage, P < 0.001), with a mean difference of 5.6 BDI points after 1 year (d = −0.53, 95% CI −0.18 to 0.882, P = 0.003). Remission from depression was also greater in the 50-session group (74% v. 58%, P = 0.025), as was remission of personality disorder (74% v. 56%, P = 0.010).

Greater intensity of psychotherapy leads to better outcomes of both depression and personality status in people with comorbid depression and personality disorder.