A discrete Galton–Watson process is modified by an absorbing process, which, within each generation, eliminates a subset of the living particles without leaving offspring. The absorbing process will be only roughly specified by its expected efficiency on the associated process. We give a sharp sufficient condition for the joint process to be extinguished with probability one and give, after an easy generalization, an example for possible biomedical applications.

The decision-maker drives a car along a straight highway towards his destination and looks for a parking place. When he finds a parking place, he can either park there and walk the distance to his destination or continue driving. Parking places are assumed to occur in accordance with a Poisson process along the highway. The decision-maker does not know the distance Y to his destination exactly in advance. Only an a priori distribution is assumed for Y and cases of typically important distribution are examined. When we take as loss the distance the decision-maker must walk and wish to minimize the expected loss, the optimal stopping rule and the minimum expected loss are obtained. In Section 3 a generalization to the cases of a non-homogeneous Poisson process and a renewal process is considered.

Maximum stability of a distribution with respect to a positive integer random variable N is defined by the property that the type of distribution is not changed when considering the maximum value of N independent observations. The logistic distribution is proved to be the only symmetric distribution which is maximum stable with respect to each member of a sequence of positive integer random variables assuming value 1 with probability tending to 1. If a distribution is maximum stable with respect to such a sequence and minimum stable with respect to another, then it must be logistic, loglogistic or ‘backward' loglogistic. The only possible sample size distributions in these cases are geometric.

It is proved that for a Poisson process there exists a one-to-one relation between the distribution of the random variable N(Y) and the distribution of the non-negative random variable Y. This relation is used to characterize the gamma distribution by the negative binomial distribution. Furthermore it is applied to obtain some characterizations of the exponential distribution.

Our study examines a stochastic R&D model with flexible termination time and without rivalry. Specifically, we assume a stochastic relationship between expenditures rate and the project's status. Furthermore, the termination time of the project is incorporated into the R&D model as a decision variable by allowing the controller to ‘sell' the obtained technology from the project at any point of time. The proposed framework extends the classical approach in the R&D literature.

The main purpose of our study is to determine the optimal stopping time of the project and to characterize qualitatively the firm's expenditure strategy. We show that under certain realistic conditions, the optimal stopping strategy is a control limit policy. Furthermore, the research effort increases monotonically over the development time of the project.

The purpose of this paper is to show that smoothness conditions on the diffusion and drift coefficient of a one-dimensional stochastic differential equation imply the existence and smoothness of a first-passage density.

In order to be able to prove this, we shall show that Brownian motion conditioned to first hit a point at a specified time has the same distribution as a Bessel (3)-process with changed time scale.

The coupon subset collection problem is a generalization of the classical coupon collecting problem, in that rather than collecting individual coupons we obtain, at each time point, a random subset of coupons. The problem of interest is to determine the expected number of subsets needed until each coupon is contained in at least one of these subsets. We provide bounds on this number, give efficient simulation procedures for estimating it, and then apply our results to a reliability problem.

The asymptotic distribution of the maximum of a random number of random variables taken from the model below is shown to be the same as when their number is a fixed integer. Applications are indicated to determine the service time of a system of a large number of components, when the number of components to be serviced is not known in advance. A much slighter assumption is made than the stochastic independence of the periods of time needed for servicing the different components. In our model we assume that the random variables can be grouped into a number of subcollections with the following properties: (i) the random variables taken from different groups are asymptotically independent, (ii) the largest number of elements in a subgroup is of smaller order than the overall number of random variables. In addition, a very mild assumption is made for the joint distribution of elements from the same group.

This paper is concerned with a model for the effect of erosion on crop production. Crop yield in the year n is given by X(n) = YnLn, where is a sequence of strictly positive i.i.d. random variables such that E{Y1} <∞, and is a Markov chain with stationary transition probabilities, independent of . When suitably normalized, leads to a martingale which converges to 0 almost everywhere (a.e.) as n → ∞. In addition, for large n, the distribution of Ln is approximately lognormal. The conditional expectations and probabilities of , given the past history of the process, are determined. Finally, the asymptotic behaviour of the total crop yield is discussed. It is established that under certain regularity conditions Sn converges a.e. to a finite-valued random variable S whose Laplace transform can be obtained as the solution of a Volterra-type linear integral equation.

The long-tailed Luria–Delbrück distribution arises in connection with the ‘random mutation’ hypothesis (whereas the ‘directed adaptation' hypothesis is thought to give a Poisson distribution). At time t the distribution depends on the parameter m = gNt/(a + g) where Nt is the current population size and g/(a + g) is the relative mutation rate (assumed constant). The paper identifies three models for the distribution in the existing literature and gives a fourth model. Ma et al. (1992) recently proved that there is a remarkably simple recursion relation for the Luria–Delbrück probabilities pn and found that asymptotically pn ≈ c/n2; their numerical studies suggested that c = 1 when the parameter m is unity. Cairns et al. (1988) had previously argued and shown numerically that Pn = Σj ≧ n Pj ≈ m/n. Here we prove that n(n + 1)pn < m(1 + 11m/30) for n = 1, 2, ···, and hence prove that as n becomes large n(n + 1)pn, ≈ m; the result mPn ≈ m follows immediately.

In this paper we analyse the fractional Poisson process where the state probabilities pkνk(t), t ≥ 0, are governed by time-fractional equations of order 0 < νk ≤ 1 depending on the number k of events that have occurred up to time t. We are able to obtain explicitly the Laplace transform of pkνk(t) and various representations of state probabilities. We show that the Poisson process with intermediate waiting times depending on νk differs from that constructed from the fractional state equations (in the case of νk = ν, for all k, they coincide with the time-fractional Poisson process). We also introduce a different form of fractional state-dependent Poisson process as a weighted sum of homogeneous Poisson processes. Finally, we consider the fractional birth process governed by equations with state-dependent fractionality.

We consider the Λ-coalescent processes with a positive frequency of singleton clusters. The class in focus covers, for instance, the beta(a, b)-coalescents with a > 1. We show that some large-sample properties of these processes can be derived by coupling the coalescent with an increasing Lévy process (subordinator), and by exploiting parallels with the theory of regenerative composition structures. In particular, we discuss the limit distributions of the absorption time and the number of collisions.

In a sequence of independent Bernoulli trials the probability of success in the kth trial is pk = a / (a + b + k − 1). An explicit formula for the binomial moments of the number of two consecutive successes in the first n trials is obtained and some consequences of it are derived.

We consider a game in which one player hides a ball in one of n boxes and the other player is allowed to search for it. There are known probabilities that the searcher will overlook the ball if he searches the correct box. The hider wishes to minimize and the searcher to maximize the probability that the ball will be found in m or fewer searches. We exhibit a procedure which allows efficient computation of optimal strategies for both players without solving the game as a linear program. The results are extended to a non-zero-sum game where the searcher's objective is to minimize the expected time until the ball is found.

We consider a stochastic model for the spread of an SEIR (susceptible → exposed → infective → removed) epidemic among a population of individuals partitioned into households. The model incorporates both vaccination and isolation in response to the detection of cases. When the infectious period is exponential, we derive an explicit formula for a threshold parameter, and analytic results that enable computation of the probability of the epidemic taking off. These quantities are found to be independent of the exposure period distribution. An approximation for the expected final size of an epidemic that takes off is obtained, evaluated numerically, and found to be reasonably accurate in large populations. When the infectious period is not exponential, but has an increasing hazard rate, we obtain stochastic comparison results in the case where the exposure period is fixed. Our main result shows that as the exposure period increases, both the severity of the epidemic in a single household and the threshold parameter decrease, under certain assumptions concerning isolation. Corresponding results for infectious periods with decreasing hazard rates are also derived.

Previous work in extending Wald's equations to Markov random walks involves finiteness of moment generating functions and uniform recurrence assumptions. By using a new approach, we can remove these assumptions. The results are applied to establish finiteness of moments of ladder variables and to derive asymptotic expansions for expected first passage times of Markov random walks. Wiener–Hopf factorizations for Markov random walks are also applied to analyse ladder variables and related first passage problems.

Upper and lower bounds are given for the probability that a separable random process X(t) will take values outside the interval (— λ1, λ2) for 0 ≦ t ≦ T, where λ1 and λ2 are positive constants.

The random process needs to be neither stationary, Gaussian nor purely random (white noise).

In engineering applications, X(t) is usually a random process decaying with time at least in the long run such as the structural response to the acceleration of ground motion due to earthquake.

Numerical examples show that the present method estimates the probability between the upper and lower bounds which are sufficiently close to be useful when the random processes decay with time.

Starting from a sequence of independent Wright-Fisher diffusion processes on [0, 1], we construct a class of reversible infinite-dimensional diffusion processes on Δ∞ := {x ∈ [0, 1]N: ∑i≥1xi = 1} with GEM distribution as the reversible measure. Log-Sobolev inequalities are established for these diffusions, which lead to the exponential convergence of the corresponding reversible measures in the entropy. Extensions are made to a class of measure-valued processes over an abstract space S. This provides a reasonable alternative to the Fleming-Viot process, which does not satisfy the log-Sobolev inequality when S is infinite as observed by Stannat (2000).

We consider the machine repairman, or resource utilization, model in which there is a finite source of jobs with non-identically distributed exponential return times and a single server with job dependent service times. We also consider a related problem of scheduling jobs at heterogeneous servers. We construct a coupling framework that provides a simple unified proof that strengthens many of the results in the literature, and generalizes easily to prove several new results.

The queue with an infinite number of servers with a semi-Markovian arrival process and with negative exponential service times is studied. The queue length process and the type of the last customer to join the queue before time t are studied jointly, both in continuous and in discrete time. Limiting stationary probabilities are also obtained.