One often observed empirical regularity is a power-law behavior of the tails of some distribution of interest. We propose a limit law for normalized random means that exhibits such heavy tails irrespective of the distribution of the underlying sampling units: the limit is a t-distribution if the random variables have finite variances. The generative scheme is then extended to encompass classic limit theorems for random sums. The resulting unifying framework has wide empirical applicability which we illustrate by considering two empirical regularities in two different fields. First, we turn to urban geography and explain why city-size growth rates are approximately t-distributed, using a model of random sector growth based on the central place theory. Second, turning to an issue in finance, we show that high-frequency stock index returns can be modeled as a generalized asymmetric Laplace process. These empirical illustrations elucidate the situations in which heavy tails can arise.

Let (Xt) be a one-dimensional Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process with initial density function f : ℝ+ → ℝ+, which is a regularly varying function with exponent -(1 + η), η ∊ (0,1). We prove the existence of a probability measure ν with a Lebesgue density, depending on η, such that for every A ∊ B(R+):

We consider a multitype population-size-dependent branching process in discrete time. A process is considered to be near-critical if the mean matrices of offspring distributions approach the mean matrix of a critical process as the population size increases. We show that if the second moments of offspring distributions stabilize as the population size increases, and the limiting variances are not too large in comparison with the deviation of the means from criticality, then the extinction probability is less than 1 and the process grows arithmetically fast, in the sense that any linear combination which is not orthogonal to the left eigenvector of the limiting mean matrix grows linearly to a limit distribution. We identify cases when the limiting distribution is gamma. A result on transience of multidimensional Markov chains is also given.

A system is subject to shocks; each shock at time t increases the cumulative damage λ (t) by a constant amount, while the system is subject to repair in between the shocks which brings down λ (t) at a constant rate. The shock arrival process is an inhomogeneous Poisson process with intensity function λ (t) and each shock weakens the system making it more expensive to run. The long-run expected cost per unit time of running the system is obtained as well as the variance of the cost which are used to get optimal times of replacement of the system.

In this paper we consider a system with two carousels operated by one picker. The items to be picked are randomly located on the carousels and the pick times follow a phase-type distribution. The picker alternates between the two carousels, picking one item at a time. Important performance characteristics are the waiting time of the picker and the throughput of the two carousels. The waiting time of the picker satisfies an equation very similar to Lindley's equation for the waiting time in the PH/U/1 queue. Although the latter equation has no simple solution, we show that the one for the waiting time of the picker can be solved explicitly. Furthermore, it is well known that the mean waiting time in the PH/U/1 queue depends on the complete interarrival time distribution, but numerical results show that, for the carousel system, the mean waiting time and throughput are rather insensitive to the pick-time distribution.

Estimator algorithms in learning automata are useful tools for adaptive, real-time optimization in computer science and engineering applications. In this paper we investigate theoretical convergence properties for a special case of estimator algorithms - the pursuit learning algorithm. We identify and fill a gap in existing proofs of probabilistic convergence for pursuit learning. It is tradition to take the pursuit learning tuning parameter to be fixed in practical applications, but our proof sheds light on the importance of a vanishing sequence of tuning parameters in a theoretical convergence analysis.

Random fields on , with long-range weak dependence for each coordinate individually, usually present clustering of high values. For each one of the eight directions in , we formulate restriction conditions on local occurrence of two or more crossings of high levels. These smooth oscillation conditions enable computation of the extremal index as a clustering measure from the limiting mean number of crossings. In fact, only four directions must be inspected since for opposite directions we find the same local path crossing behaviour and the same limiting mean number of crossings. The general theory is illustrated with several 1-dependent nonstationary random fields.

We show in this paper how the Laplace transform θ* of the duration θ of an excursion by the occupation process {Λt} of an M/M/∞ system above a given threshold can be obtained by means of continued fraction analysis. The representation of θ* by a continued fraction is established and the [m−1/m] Padé approximants are computed by means of well known orthogonal polynomials, namely associated Charlier polynomials. It turns out that the continued fraction considered is an S fraction and as a consequence the Stieltjes transform of some spectral measure. Then, using classic asymptotic expansion properties of hypergeometric functions, the representation of the Laplace transform θ* by means of Kummer's function is obtained. This allows us to recover an earlier result obtained via complex analysis and the use of the strong Markov property satisfied by the occupation process {Λt}. The continued fraction representation enables us to further characterize the distribution of the random variable θ.

For a given transition rate, i.e., a Q-matrix Q = (qij) on a countable state space, the uniqueness of the Q-semigroup P(t) = (Pij(t)), the recurrence and the positive recurrence of the corresponding Markov chain are three fundamental and classical problems, treated in many textbooks. As an addition, this paper introduces some practical results motivated from the study of a type of interacting particle systems, reaction diffusion processes. The main results are theorems (1.11), (1.17) and (1.18). Their proofs are quite straightforward.

Recently new partial orderings s-SFR, s-FR, s-ST, s-CV and s-CX have been defined in the literature. These are more general in the sense that most of the earlier known partial orderings reduce to particular cases of these orderings. Moreover, these orderings have helped in defining a new and useful ageing criterion. In this paper, we discuss preservation properties of these orderings under mixtures. Results are expected to be useful in engineering and reliability, where mixtures of distributions arise naturally in numerous situations. Moreover, existing results, specifically for LR, FR and ST orderings under the operation of mixtures, reduce to special cases.

Explicit results are found for average delays and average lengths of red and green phases for a realistic continuous-time model of a two-street intersection operating with vehicle-actuated controls. The assumed arrival processes satisfactorily model both the random ‘bunch-gap' structure of traffic and the fact that vehicles have non-zero length.

We investigate the Russian option with a finite time horizon in the standard Black–Scholes model. The value of the option is shown to be a solution of a certain parabolic free boundary problem, and the optimal stopping boundary is shown to be continuous. Moreover, the asymptotic behavior of the optimal stopping boundary near expiration is studied.

In this paper, we consider a certain class of Markov renewal processes where the matrix of the transition kernel governing the Markov renewal process possesses some block-structured property, including repeating rows. Duality conditions and properties are obtained on two probabilistic measures which often play a key role in the analysis and computations of such a block-structured process. The method used here unifies two different concepts of duality. Applications of duality are also provided, including a characteristic theorem concerning recurrence and transience of a transition matrix with repeating rows and a batch arrival queueing model.

For a sequence of random variables {Xn, n ≧ 0}, optimal stopping is considered over stopping times T constrained so that ET ≦ α, for some fixed α > 0. It is shown that under certain circumstances a Lagrangian approach may be used to reduce the problem to an unconstrained optimal stopping problem of a conventional type. The optimal value of the natural dual problem is shown to be equal to the optimal value of the original (primal) problem when certain randomised stopping times are permitted. Two examples are considered in detail.

This paper deals with the Foster–Pakes model for Galton–Watson branching processes allowing immigration whenever the number of particles is 0. In the critical case we investigate the asymptotic behaviour of the probability of non-extinction, of the expectation and of the variance, and obtain different types of limit theorems depending on the temporally-decreasing sizes of the immigrants.

We define a natural extension of the concept of expectation of a random variable y as follows: M(y) = a if there exists a constant − ∞ ≦ a ≦ ∞ such that if y1, y2, … is a sequence of independent identically distributed (i.i.d.) random variables with the common distribution of y then

This paper gives the probability that no common allozyme signature is found among n randomly selected cell culture lines when the s mutually exclusive and exhaustive signatures have arbitrary known probabilities. This result is useful in detecting cell culture contamination by a single cell line. This problem is a generalization of the classic problem of finding the probability of no common birthday among n individuals when it is assumed that each individual has a chance 1/s = 1/365 of a birthday on a given day. Both an exact recursive solution and an approximate solution are given for the general problem.

The simple stationarity of a previously derived equilibrium process of responses in a renewal inhibited stationary point process is established by deriving the joint distribution of the number of responses in contiguous intervals in the process. For a renewal inhibited Poisson process the variancetime function of the process is obtained; the distribution of an arbitrary between-response interval and the synchronous counting distribution are also derived following analytic justification of the required results. These results strengthen earlier results in the theory of stationary point processes. Three other point processes arising from the interaction are briefly discussed.

In a recent paper, Kleinberg (2000) considered a small-world network model consisting of a d-dimensional lattice augmented with shortcuts. The probability of a shortcut being present between two points decays as a power, r-α, of the distance, r, between them. Kleinberg showed that greedy routeing is efficient if α = d and that there is no efficient decentralised routeing algorithm if α ≠ d. The results were extended to a continuum model by Franceschetti and Meester (2003). In our work, we extend the result to more realistic models constructed from a Poisson point process wherein each point is connected to all its neighbours within some fixed radius, and possesses random shortcuts to more distant nodes as described above.

In this paper we study the asymptotic properties of the canonical plugin estimates for law-invariant coherent risk measures. Under rather mild conditions not relying on the explicit representation of the risk measure under consideration, we first prove a central limit theorem for independent and identically distributed data, and then extend it to the case of weakly dependent data. Finally, a number of illustrating examples is presented.