The Luria–Delbrück distribution arises in birth-and-mutation processes in population genetics that have been systematically studied for the last fifty years. The central result reported in this paper is a new recursion relation for computing this distribution which supersedes all past results in simplicity and computational efficiency: p0 = e–m; where m is the expected number of mutations. A new relation for the asymptotic behavior of pn (≈ c/n2) is also derived. This corresponds to the probability of finding a very large number of mutants. A formula for the z-transform of the distribution is also reported.

This paper gives, in the form of Laplace–Stieltjes transforms and generating functions, the joint distribution of the sojourn time and the number of customers in the system at departure for customers in the general M/G/1 queue with processor sharing (M/G/1/PS).

Explicit formulas are given for a number of conditional and unconditional moments, including the variance of the sojourn time of an ‘arbitrary' customer.

Integration with respect to the fractional Brownian motion Z with Hurst parameter is discussed. The predictor is represented as an integral with respect to Z, solving a weakly singular integral equation for the prediction weight function.

The representation of the reliability function of the lifetime of a coherent system as a mixture of the reliability function of order statistics associated with the lifetimes of its components is a very useful tool to study the ordering and the limiting behaviour of coherent systems. In this paper, we obtain several representations of the reliability functions of residual lifetimes of used coherent systems under two particular conditions on the status of the components or the system in terms of the reliability functions of residual lifetimes of order statistics.

A disaster occurs in a queue when a negative arrival causes all the work (and therefore customers) to leave the system instantaneously. Recent papers have addressed several issues pertaining to queueing networks with negative arrivals under the i.i.d. exponential service times assumption. Here we relax this assumption and derive a Pollaczek–Khintchine-like formula for M/G/1 queues with disasters by making use of the preemptive LIFO discipline. As a byproduct, the stationary distribution of the remaining service time process is obtained for queues operating under this discipline. Finally, as an application, we obtain the Laplace transform of the stationary remaining service time of the customer in service for unstable preemptive LIFO M/G/1 queues.

Using Akaike's information criterion, we have presented an objective procedure for the determination of the order of an ergodic Markov chain with a finite number of states. The procedure exploits the asymptotic properties of the maximum likelihood ratio statistics and Kullback and Leibler's mean information for the discrimination between two distributions. Numerical illustrations are given, using data from Bartlett (1966), Good and Gover (1967) and some weather records.

We consider the model Zt = φ (0, k)+ φ(1, k)Zt–1 + at (k) whenever rk−1<Zt−1≦rk, 1≦k≦l, with r0 = –∞ and rl =∞. Here {φ (i, k); i = 0, 1; 1≦k≦l} is a sequence of real constants, not necessarily equal, and, for 1≦k≦l, {at(k), t≧1} is a sequence of i.i.d. random variables with mean 0 and with {at(k), t≧1} independent of {at(j), t≧1} for j ≠ k. Necessary and sufficient conditions on the constants {φ (i, k)} are given for the stationarity of the process. Least squares estimators of the model parameters are derived and, under mild regularity conditions, are shown to be strongly consistent and asymptotically normal.

In an uncongested transportation network, adding routes and capacity to an existing network must decrease, or at worst not change, the average time individuals require to travel through the network from a source to a destination. Braess (1968) discovered that the same is not true in congested networks. Here we give an example of a queuing network in which added capacity leads to an increase in the mean transit time for everyone. Self-seeking individuals are unable to refrain from using the additional capacity, even though using it leads to deterioration in the mean transit time. This example appears to be the first queuing network to demonstrate the general principle that in non-co-operative games with smooth payoff functions, user-determined equilibria generically deviate from system-optimal equilibria.

In recent years many applications of probability theory have involved such concepts as records, inter-record times and extreme order statistics. The results have generally been proved by diverse methods. In the present work a unifying structure is presented, which makes possible the simplification and extension of some of these results. The approach taken is to place all relevant processes on the same sample space. The underlying sample space is a homogeneous two-dimensional Poisson process.

The concepts of distribution operator, stochastic independence, convergence in distribution and normal distribution are formulated for pairs of canonically conjugate quantum-mechanical momentum and position operators. It is shown that if the sequence (pn, qn), n = 1, 2, ··· is stochastically independent and identically distributed with finite covariance and zero mean then the sequence of pairs of canonical observables converges in distribution to a normal limit distribution.

Let ξn be the maximum of a set of n independent random variables with common distribution function F whose support consists of all sufficiently large positive integers. Some of the classical asymptotic results of extreme value theory fail to apply to ξn for such F and this paper attempts to find weaker ones which give some description of the behaviour of ξn as n → ∞. These are then applied to the extreme value theory of certain regenerative stochastic processes.

Formulae are presented for the variance and higher moments of the present value of single-stage rewards in a finite Markov decision process. Similar formulae are exhibited for a semi-Markov decision process. There is a short discussion of the obstacles to using the variance formula in algorithms to maximize the mean minus a multiple of the standard deviation.

We investigate an optimal stopping time problem which arises from pricing Russian options (i.e. perpetual look-back options) on a stock whose price fluctuations are modelled by adjoining a hidden Markov process to the classical Black-Scholes geometric Brownian motion model. By extending the technique of smooth fit to allow jump discontinuities, we obtain an explicit closed-form solution. It gives a non-standard application of the well-known smooth fit principle where the optimal strategy involves jumping over the optimal boundary and by an arbitrary overshoot. Based on the optimal stopping analysis, an arbitrage-free price for Russian options under the hidden Markov model is derived.

In this paper we derive sufficient conditions for the permanence and ergodicity of a stochastic predator–prey model with a Beddington–DeAngelis functional response. The conditions obtained are in fact very close to the necessary conditions. Both nondegenerate and degenerate diffusions are considered. One of the distinctive features of our results is that they enable the characterization of the support of a unique invariant probability measure. It proves the convergence in total variation norm of the transition probability to the invariant measure. Comparisons to the existing literature and matters related to other stochastic predator–prey models are also given.

For a stochastic epidemic of the type considered by Bailey [1] and Kendall [3], Daniels [2] showed that ‘when the threshold is large but the population size is much larger, the distribution of the number remaining uninfected in a large epidemic has approximately the Poisson form.' A simple, intuitive proof is given for this result without use of Daniels's assumption that the original number of infectives is ‘small'. The proof is based on a construction of the epidemic process which is more explicit than the usual description.

We show that several machine learning estimators, including square-root least absolute shrinkage and selection and regularized logistic regression, can be represented as solutions to distributionally robust optimization problems. The associated uncertainty regions are based on suitably defined Wasserstein distances. Hence, our representations allow us to view regularization as a result of introducing an artificial adversary that perturbs the empirical distribution to account for out-of-sample effects in loss estimation. In addition, we introduce RWPI (robust Wasserstein profile inference), a novel inference methodology which extends the use of methods inspired by empirical likelihood to the setting of optimal transport costs (of which Wasserstein distances are a particular case). We use RWPI to show how to optimally select the size of uncertainty regions, and as a consequence we are able to choose regularization parameters for these machine learning estimators without the use of cross validation. Numerical experiments are also given to validate our theoretical findings.

If Fn∗ is the n-fold Stieltjes convolution of the increasing function F, then a version of Chernoff's theorem, on the limiting behaviour of (Fn∗(na))1/n, is established for Fn∗. If Z(n)(t) is the number of the nth-generation people to the left of t in a supercritical branching random walk then an analogous result is proved for Z(n).

L'enveloppe convexe des nuages de points dans Rn a donné lieu à un certain nombre de travaux. Dans deux articles ([5] et [6]), Rényi et Sulanke ont proposé et résolu un certain nombre de problèmes. Une loi de probabilité étant donnée dans R2, on procède aux tirages indépendants de N points suivant cette loi.

The exponential growth of computer networking demands massive upgrades in the capacity of existing networks. Traditional capacity design methodologies, developed with the single-class networking paradigm in mind, overlook the non-cooperative structure of modern networks. Consequently, such design approaches entail the danger of degraded performance when resources are added to a network, a phenomenon known as the Braess paradox.

The present paper proposes methods for adding resources efficiently to a non-cooperative network of general topology. It is shown that the paradox is avoided when resources are added across the network, rather than on a local scale, and when upgrades are focused on direct connections between the sources and destinations. The relevance of these results for modern networks is demonstrated.

A number of identical machines operating in parallel are to be used to complete the processing of a collection of jobs so as to minimize either the jobs' makespan or flowtime. The total processing required to complete each job has the same probability distribution, but some jobs may have received differing amounts of processing prior to the start. When the distribution has a monotone hazard rate the expected value of the makespan (flowtime) is minimized by a strategy which always processes those jobs with the least (greatest) hazard rates. When the distribution has a density whose logarithm is concave or convex these strategies minimize the makespan and flowtime in distribution. These results are also true when the processing requirements are distributed as exponential random variables with different parameters.