This paper discusses an optimization problem arising in the theory of inventory control. Much of the previous work in this field has been focused on the Arrow-Harris-Marschak model, [1], [2], in which the inventory level can be modified only at the instants of discrete time. Here, we shall be concerned with a continuous time analogue of the model, in an attempt to avoid the difficulties experienced in solving the basic integral equations. The approach was suggested by recent investigations of a statistical decision problem, [3], [5], which exploited the advantages of a continuous treatment. Although the ideas discussed here are relatively straightforward and involve strong assumptions as to the behavior of the inventory, the explicit character of the optimal policy is encouraging and particular solutions might nevertheless provide useful restocking procedures.

Sojourn times of Markov processes in subsets of the finite state space are considered. We give a closed form of the distribution of the nth sojourn time in a given subset of states. The asymptotic behaviour of this distribution when time goes to infinity is analyzed, in the discrete time and the continuous-time cases. We consider the usually pseudo-aggregated Markov process canonically constructed from the previous one by collapsing the states of each subset of a given partition. The relation between limits of moments of the sojourn time distributions in the original Markov process and the moments of the corresponding holding times of the pseudo-aggregated one is also studied.

Motivated by problems in the analysis of spatial data, we prove some general Poisson limit theorems for the U-statistics of Hoeffding (1948). The theorems are applied to tests of clustering or collinearities in plane data; nearest neighbour distances are also considered.

Results on the behaviour of Markov branching processes as time goes to infinity, hitherto obtained for models which assume a discrete state-space or discrete time or both, are here generalised to a model with both state-space and time continuous. The results are similar but the methods not always so.

A new class of life distributions, namely new better than used in convex ordering (NBUC), and its dual, new worse than used in convex ordering (NWUC), are introduced. Their relations to other classes of life distributions, closure properties under three reliability operations, and heritage properties under shock model and Laplace-Stieltjes transform are discussed.

This paper is a continuation of [1]. The techniques of [1] are used to get specific information about the distribution of the total progeny in a branching process. This distribution is also related to one which arises in a random walk problem.

Heuristic solution methods for combinatorial optimization problems are often based on local neighborhood searches. These tend to get trapped in a local optimum and the final result is often heavily dependent on the starting solution. Simulated annealing methods attempt to avoid these problems by randomizing the procedure so as to allow for occasional changes that worsen the solution. In this paper we provide probabilistic analyses of different designs of these methods.

Using key tools such as Itô's formula for general semimartingales, Kunita's moment estimates for Lévy-type stochastic integrals, and the exponential martingale inequality, we find conditions under which the solutions to the stochastic differential equations (SDEs) driven by Lévy noise are stable in probability, almost surely and moment exponentially stable.

A decomposition theorem for multistate structure functions is proven. This result is applied to obtain bounds for the system performance function. Another application is made to interpret the multistate structures of Barlow and Wu. Various concepts of multistate importance and coherence are also discussed.

We consider preemptive scheduling of N tasks on m processors; processors have different speeds, tasks require amounts of work which are exponentially distributed, with different parameters. The policies of assigning at every moment the task with shortest (longest) expected processing time among those not yet completed to the fastest processor available, second shortest (longest) to the second fastest etc., are examined, and shown to minimize expected values of various cost functions. As special cases we obtain policies which minimize expected flowtime, expected makespan and expected lifetime of a series system with m component locations and N spares.

Let Xl, · ··, Χ n be independent binary variables with parameters θl, · ··, θ n respectively, and let R denote the length of the longest run of 1's. This note concerns a new expression for and a rearrangement inequality. The inequality is applied to solve an optimal permutation problem for consecutive-k-out-of-n: F networks, and its implications on a recent conjecture of Derman et al. (1982) are discussed.

A new partial ordering among life distributions in terms of their uncertainties is introduced. Our measure of uncertainty is Shannon information applied to the residual lifetime. The relationship between this ordering and various existing orderings of life distributions are discussed. Various properties of our proposed concept are examined. Based on our proposed ordering and various existing orderings, the notion of a ‘better system' is introduced.

Consider a system that is subject to a sequence of randomly occurring shocks; each shock causes some damage of random magnitude to the system. Any of the shocks might cause the system to fail, and the probability of such a failure is a function of the sum of the magnitudes of damage caused from all previous shocks.

The purpose of this paper is to derive the optimal replacement rule for such a system whose cumulative damage process is a semi-Markov process. This allows for both the time between shocks and the damage due to the next shock to be dependent on the present cumulative damage level.

Only policies within the class of control-limit policies will be considered; namely, policies with which no action is taken if the damage is below a fixed level, and a replacement is made if the damage is above that.

An example will be given illustrating the use of the optimal replacement rule.

In this note we prove some stochastic decomposition results for variations of the GI/G/1 queue. Our main model is a GI/G/1 queue in which the server, when it becomes idle, goes on a vacation for a random length of time. On return from vacation, if it finds customers waiting, then it starts serving the first customer in the queue. Otherwise it takes another vacation and so on. Under fairly general conditions the waiting time of an arbitrary customer, in steady state, is distributed as the sum of two independent random variables: one corresponding to the waiting time without vacations and the other to the stationary forward recurrence time of the vacation. This extends the decomposition result of Gelenbe and Iasnogorodski [5]. We use sample path arguments, which are also used to prove stochastic decomposition in a GI/G/1 queue with set-up time.

In this paper, a repairable system consisting of one unit and a single repairman is studied. Assume that the system after repair is not as good as new. Under this assumption, a bivariate replacement policy (T, N), where T is the working age and N is the number of failures of the system is studied. The problem is to determine the optimal replacement policy (T, N)∗such that the long-run average cost per unit time is minimized. The explicit expression of the long-run average cost per unit time is derived, and the corresponding optimal replacement policy can be determined analytically or numerically. Finally, under some conditions, we show that the policy (T, N)∗ is better than policies N∗ or T∗.

The hazard rate ordering is an ordering for random variables which compares lifetimes with respect to their hazard rate functions. It is stronger than the usual stochastic order for random variables, yet is weaker than the likelihood ratio ordering. The hazard rate ordering is particularly useful in reliability theory and survival analysis, owing to the importance of the hazard rate function in these areas. In this paper earlier work on the hazard rate ordering is reviewed, and extensive new results related to coherent systems are derived. Initially we fix the form of a coherent structure and investigate the effect on the hazard rate function of the system when we switch the lifetimes of its components from the vector (T1, · ··, Tn) to the vector (T′1, · ··, T′n), where the hazard rate functions of the two vectors are assumed to be comparable in some sense. Although the hazard rate ordering is closed under the formation of series systems, we see that this is not the case for parallel systems even when the system is a two-component parallel system with exponentially distributed lifetimes. A positive result shows that for two-component parallel systems with proportional hazards (λ1r(t), λ2r(t))), the more diverse (λ1, λ2) is in the sense of majorization the stronger is the system in the hazard rate ordering. Unfortunately even this result does not extend to parallel systems with more than two components, demonstrating again the delicate nature of the hazard rate ordering.

The principal result of the paper concerns the hazard rate ordering for the lifetime of a k-out-of-n system. It is shown that if τ k|n is the lifetime of a k-out-of-n system, then τ k|n is greater than τ k+1|n in the hazard rate ordering for any k. This has an interesting interpretation in the language of order statistics. For independent (not necessarily identically distributed) lifetimes T1, · ··, Tn, we let Tk:n represent the kth order statistic (in increasing order). Then it is shown that Tk +1:n is greater than Tk:n in the hazard rate ordering for all k = 1, ···, n − 1. The result does not, however, extend to the stronger likelihood ratio order.

Several mechanisms under which the randomness of straight line paths through convex bodies can arise are described. Some general results are given relating four of these mechanisms, and the corresponding distributions of the lengths of the straight line paths are found for the circle, the rectangle, and the cube.

An approximation for the average delay in queue of an entering customer is presented for the M/G/K queuing model with finite capacity. The approximation is obtained by means of an approximation relating a joint distribution of remaining service time to the equilibrium service distribution.

The strong law of large numbers for independent and identically distributed random variables Xi, i = 1,2,3, …, with finite mean µ can be stated as, for any ∊ > 0, the number of integers n such that |n−1 Σi=1nXi − μ| > ∊, N(∊), is finite a.s. It is known, furthermore, that EN(∊) < ∞ if and only if EX12 < ∞. Here it is shown that if EX12 < ∞ then ∊2EN(∊)→ var X1 as ∊ → 0.

A simple Bayesian model for oil exploration is suggested to investigate strategies for drilling. A condition on the way successes and failures affect the prior distribution implies a certain form of the detection mechanism. It is shown that the problem of finding strategies for drilling reduces to an optimal stopping problem. Two new families of distributions are obtained with generating functions related to classical work on partitions of integers. By using such distributions and simple mixtures of them as priors, the stopping problem can be solved explicitly. This leads to the construction of simple strategies and their effectiveness is demonstrated by evaluating suitable operating characteristics.