A vector X of patient prognostic variables is modeled as a linear diffusion process with time-dependent, non-random, continuous coefficients. The instantaneous force of mortality (hazard function) operating on the patient is assumed to be a time-dependent, continuous quadratic functional of the prognostic vector. Conditional on initial data X0, the probability of surviving T units of time is expressed in terms of the solution of a Riccati equation, which can be evaluated in closed form if the coefficients of the process and the hazard are constant. This conditional expectation does not preserve proportional hazards.

Let N(t) be an exponentially ergodic birth-death process on the state space {0, 1, 2, ···} governed by the parameters {λn, μn}, where µ0 = 0, such that λn = λ and μn = μ for all n ≧ N, N ≧ 1, with λ < μ. In this paper, we develop an algorithm to determine the decay parameter of such a specialized exponentially ergodic birth-death process, based on van Doorn's representation (1987) of eigenvalues of sign-symmetric tridiagonal matrices. The decay parameter is important since it is indicative of the speed of convergence to ergodicity. Some comparability results for the decay parameters are given, followed by the discussion for the decay parameter of a birth-death process governed by the parameters such that limn→∞λn = λ and limn→∞µn = μ. The algorithm is also shown to be a useful tool to determine the quasi-stationary distribution, i.e. the limiting distribution conditioned to stay in {1, 2, ···}, of such specialized birth-death processes.

This paper presents the general properties of the semi-Markovian manpower model in continuous time. The asymptotic relation for the population numbers in various grades is based on the forces of transition zij(u) from state i to state j at duration u.

A controlled Markov chain with finite state space has transition probabilities which depend on an unknown parameter α lying in a known finite set A. For each α, a stationary control law ϕ α is given. This paper develops a control scheme whereby at each stage t a parameter α t is chosen at random from among those parameters which nearly maximize the log likelihood function, and the control ut is chosen according to the control law ϕ αt. It is proved that this algorithm leads to identification of the true α under conditions weaker than any previously considered.

Success runs of a fixed length in a two-state Markov chain are discussed. The results are analogous to those in the case of independent Bernoulli trials. The generating function of the waiting time for the first occurrence of a success run is obtained from the theory of recurrent events. Under certain conditions, the distribution of the number of long runs in a large number of trials is shown to be Poisson.

Let X1, X2, X3, ··· be independent, identically distributed random variables on a probability space (Ω, F, P); and with a continuous distribution function. Let the sequence of indices {Vr} be defined as Also define The following theorem is due to Renyi [5].

The use of taboo probabilities in Markov chains simplifies the task of calculating the queue-length distribution from data recording customer departure times and service commencement times such as might be available from automatic bank-teller machine transaction records or the output of telecommunication network nodes. For the case of Poisson arrivals, this permits the construction of a new simple exact O(n3) algorithm for busy periods with n customers and an O(n2 log n) algorithm which is empirically verified to be within any prespecified accuracy of the exact algorithm. The algorithm is extended to the case of Erlang-k interarrival times, and can also cope with finite buffers and the real-time estimates problem when the arrival rate is known.

This paper presents an analysis of the single-server discrete-time finite-buffer queue with general interarrival and geometric service time, GI/Geom/1/N. Using the supplementary variable technique, and considering the remaining interarrival time as a supplementary variable, two variations of this model, namely the late arrival system with delayed access (LAS-DA) and early arrival system (EAS), have been examined. For both cases, steady-state distributions for outside observers as well as at random and prearrival epochs have been obtained. The waiting time analysis has also been carried out. Results for the Geom/G/1/N queue with LAS-DA have been obtained from the GI/Geom/1/N queue with EAS. We also give various performance measures. An algorithm for computing state probabilities is given in an appendix.

This paper presents a single-server loss queueing system where customers arrive according to a Poisson process. Upon arrival, the customer presents itself to a gatekeeper who has to decide whether to admit the customer into the system without knowing the busy–idle status of the server. There is a cost if the gatekeeper blocks a customer, and a larger cost if an admitted customer finds the server busy and therefore has to leave the system. The goal of the gatekeeper is to minimize the total expected discounted cost on an infinite time horizon. In the case of an exponential service distribution, we show that a threshold-type policy—block for a time period following each admission and then admit the next customer—is optimal. For general service distributions, we show that a threshold-type policy need not be optimal; we then present a sufficient condition for the existence of an optimal threshold-type policy.

This paper aims at enhancing the understanding of long-range dependence (LRD) by focusing on mechanisms for generating this dependence, namely persistence of signs and/or persistence of magnitudes beyond what can be expected under weak dependence. These concepts are illustrated through a discussion of fractional Brownian noise of index H ∈ (0,1) and it is shown that LRD in signs holds if and only if ½ < H < 1 and LRD in magnitudes if and only if ¾ ≤ H < 1. An application to discrimination between two risky asset finance models, the FATGBM model of Heyde and the multifractal model of Mandelbrot, is given to illustrate the use of the ideas.

Suppose that it is desired to determine the frequency, known to lie in a range 0 < σ ≦ ω ≦ ΩT <∞, of a periodic effect modulating the rate of occurrence of a Poisson point process. It is shown that if ΩT increases sufficiently slowly with T, the length of the observation period, then the frequency corresponding to the maximum of the Bartlett periodogram over this range provides a consistent estimate of the unknown frequency. The asymptotic covariance matrix is found for the maximum likelihood estimates of the parameters in a cyclic Poisson model, and the close analogue with frequency estimation for Gaussian processes is emphasized. It is pointed out, however, that in the point-process case periodogram estimates will be efficient only for very special models.

We consider GI/G/1 queues in an environment which is periodic in the sense that the service time of the nth customer and the next interarrival time depend on the phase θ n at the arrival instant. Assuming Harris ergodicity of {θ n} and a suitable condition on the traffic intensity, various Markov chains related to the queue are then again Harris ergodic and provide limit results for the standard customer- and time-dependent processes such as waiting times and queue lengths. As part of the analysis, a result of Nummelin (1979) concerning Lindley processes on a Markov chain is reconsidered.

The kin number problem involves the relationship between sibship sizes and offspring numbers, and also numbers of relatives of other degrees of affinity of a random member of a population, to be called Ego. The problem has been well known to demographers for some time, but results obtained only gave expected numbers. Recently a study of it, based on the Galton-Watson process, was made, with a view to obtaining joint distributions (Waugh (1981)). In the latter study it was assumed that the population was large, and thus some of the results obtained were approximations.

In the present paper exact distributions are obtained, for any size of population. This can be of use in applications, where the population considered may be a small, isolated tribe or other special group. As a theoretical investigation, it replaces some heuristic arguments with limiting properties that are intrinsic to the process and it makes it possible to evaluate the previous approximations.

This paper considers a finite dam with independently and identically distributed (i.i.d.) inputs occurring in a Poisson process; the special cases where the inputs are (i) deterministic and (ii) negative exponentially distributed are considered in detail. The instantaneous release trate is proportional to the content, i.e., there is an exponential fall in conten except when inputs occur. This model may arise in several other situations such as a geiger counter or integrated shot noise. The distribution of the number of inputs, and of the time, to first overflowing is obtained in terms of generating functions; in Case (i) the solution is obtained through recurrence relations involving iterated integrals which can be evaluated numerically, and in Case (ii) using a series solution of a second order differential equation. Numerical results, in particular for the first two moments, are obtained for various values of the parameters of the model, and compared with a large number of simulations. Some remarks are also made about the infinite dam.

A cut-off phenomenon is shown to occur in a sample of n independent, identically distributed Ornstein-Uhlenbeck processes and its average. Their distributions stay far from equilibrium before a certain O(log(n)) time, and converge exponentially fast after. Precise estimates show that the total variation distance drops from almost 1 to almost 0 over an interval of time of length O(1) around log(n)/(2α), where α is the viscosity coefficient of the sampled process. The distribution of the hitting time of 0 by the average of the sample is computed. As n tends to infinity, the hitting time becomes concentrated around the cut-off instant, and its tails match the estimates given for the total variation distance.

An infinite dam with input formed by a compound Poisson process is considered. As an output policy, we adopt the PλM-policy. The stationary distribution and expectation of the level of water in the reservoir are obtained.

This paper studies limiting properties of discretely sampled Poisson shot noise processes. Versions of the law of large numbers and central limit theorem are derived under very general conditions. Examples demonstrating the utility of the results are included.

A class of Lyapunov functions is used to demonstrate that strategy stability occurs in complex randomly mating diploid populations. Strategies close to the evolutionarily stable strategy tend to fare better than more remote strategies. If convergence in mean strategy to an evolutionarily stable strategy is not possible, evolution will continue until all strategies in use lie on a unique face of the convex hull of available strategies.

The results obtained are also relevant to the haploid parthenogenetic case.

Two stochastic models are developed for the predator-prey process. In each case it is shown that ultimate extinction of one of the two populations is certain to occur in finite time. For each model an exact expression is derived for the probability that the predators eventually become extinct when the prey birth rate is 0. These probabilities are used to derive power series approximations to extinction probabilities when the prey birth rate is not 0. On comparison with values obtained by numerical analysis the approximations are shown to be very satisfactory when initial population sizes and prey birth rate are all small. An approximation to the mean number of changes before extinction occurs is also obtained for one of the models.

Let Xn1 ≦ Xn2 ≦ ··· ≦ Xnn denote the order statistics from a sample of n independent, identically distributed random variables, and suppose that the variables Xnn, Xn, n–1, ···, when suitably normalized, have a non-trivial limiting joint distribution ξ1, ξ2, ···, as n → ∞. It is well known that the limiting distribution must be one of just three types. We provide a canonical representation of the stochastic process {ξn, n ≧ 1} in terms of exponential variables, and use this representation to obtain limit theorems for ξ n as n →∞.