In an ergodic network of K M/M/1 queues in series we consider the rare event that, as N increases, the total population in the network exceeds N during a busy period. By utilizing the contraction principle of large deviation theory, an action functional is obtained for this exit problem. The ensuing minimization is carried out for K = 2 and an indication is given for arbitrary K. It is shown that, asymptotically and for unequal service rates, the ‘most likely' path for this rare event is one where the arrival rate has been interchanged with the smallest service rate. The problem has been posed in Parekh and Walrand [7] in connection with importance sampling simulation methods for queueing networks. Its solution has previously been obtained only heuristically.

Let Sn be a sum of independent random variables. For the approximation of Sn by a Poisson random variable Y with the same mean, the complex analysis approaches based on generating functions and the semigroup approach are presented in a unified setting which permits us to refine Kerstan's complex analysis approach obtaining considerably sharper upper bounds for some metric distances of Sn and Y. These results are applied to some special Sn counting the records of an i.i.d. sequence of random variables which is important to various applied problems, for instance the secretary problem.

The Stein–Chen method for Poisson approximation is adapted to the setting of the geometric distribution. This yields a convenient method for assessing the accuracy of the geometric approximation to the distribution of the number of failures preceding the first success in dependent trials. The results are applied to approximating waiting time distributions for patterns in coin tossing, and to approximating the distribution of the time when a stationary Markov chain first visits a rare set of states. The error bounds obtained are sharper than those obtainable using related Poisson approximations.

We characterise the classes of continuous and discrete phase-type distributions in the following way. They are known to be closed under convolutions, mixtures, and the unary ‘geometric mixture' operation. We show that the continuous class is the smallest family of distributions that is closed under these operations and contains all exponential distributions and the point mass at zero. An analogous result holds for the discrete class.

We also show that discrete phase-type distributions can be regarded as ℝ+-rational sequences, in the sense of automata theory. This allows us to view our characterisation of them as a corollary of the Kleene–Schützenberger theorem on the behavior of finite automata. We prove moreover that any summable ℝ+-rational sequence is proportional to a discrete phase-type distribution.

We prove strong convergence of the proportions Un/Tn of balls in a multitype generalized Pólya urn model, using martingale arguments. The limit is characterized as a convex combination of left dominant eigenvectors of the replacement matrix R, with random Dirichlet coefficients.

Convolutions of long-tailed and subexponential distributions play a major role in the analysis of many stochastic systems. We study these convolutions, proving some important new results through a simple and coherent approach, and also showing that the standard properties of such convolutions follow as easy consequences.

In this paper we study the size of the largest clique ω(G(n, α)) in a random graph G(n, α) on n vertices which has power-law degree distribution with exponent α. We show that, for ‘flat’ degree sequences with α > 2, with high probability, the largest clique in G(n, α) is of a constant size, while, for the heavy tail distribution, when 0 < α < 2, ω(G(n, α)) grows as a power of n. Moreover, we show that a natural simple algorithm with high probability finds in G(n, α) a large clique of size (1 − o(1))ω(G(n, α)) in polynomial time.

A single-server queueing system is studied, the input into which consists of the sum of two independent stochastic processes. One of these is an ‘M/G' type input process, the other a much more general process which need not be Markov. There are two types of busy period, depending on which arrival process started the busy period. Stochastic monotonicity results are derived and it is found that under a stationarity-like condition the probability of being in a busy period which started with an ‘M/G' arrival is independent of time and is the same it would be with the ‘M/G' process as only input process. Also, distributional results are obtained for the virtual waiting-time process, and these results are used to reduce the study of a single-server queueing system with as input the sum of independent ‘M/G' and ‘GI/G' input streams to the study of a related GI/G/1 queueing system.

The purpose of this paper is to pave the way for a study of an M/G/1 queueing system with periodic arrivals of additional work, and for optimal scheduling of maintenance processes in certain real-time computer systems.

In this paper we prove the validity of the Volterra integral equation for the evaluation of first-passage-time probability densities through varying boundaries, given by Buonocore et al. [1], for the case of diffusion processes not necessarily time-homogeneous. We study, specifically those processes that can be obtained from the Wiener process in the sense of [5]. A study of the kernel of the integral equation, in the same way as that by Buonocore et al. [1], is done. We obtain the boundaries for which closed-form solutions of the integral equation, without having to solve the equation, can be obtained. Finally, a few examples are given to indicate the actual use of our method.

The paper reviews the formulation of the linked stress release model for large scale seismicity together with aspects of its application. Using data from Taiwan for illustrative purposes, models can be selected and verified using tools that include Akaike's information criterion (AIC), numerical analysis, residual point processes and Monte Carlo simulation.

In a single-shelf library of N books we suppose that books are selected one at a time and returned to the kth position on the shelf before another selection is made. Books are moved to the right or left as necessary to vacate position k. The probability of selecting each book is assumed to be known, and the N! arrangements of the books are considered as states of an ergodic Markov chain for which we find the stationary distribution.

In this paper we introduce and study a dynamic notion of mean residual life (mrl) functions in the context of multivariate reliability theory. Basic properties of these functions are derived and their relationship to the multivariate conditional hazard rate functions is studied.

A partial ordering, called the mrl ordering, of non-negative random vectors is introduced and its basic properties are presented. Its relationship to stochastic ordering and to other related orderings (such as hazard rate ordering) is pointed out. Using this ordering it is possible to introduce a weak notion of positive dependence of random lifetimes. Some properties of this positive dependence notion are given.

Finally, using the mrl ordering, a dynamic notion of multivariate DMRL (decreasing mean residual life) is introduced and studied. The relationship of this multivariate DMRL notion to other notions of dynamic multivariate aging is highlighted in this paper.

In practical situations, we observe the number of claims to an insurance portfolio but not the claim intensity. It is therefore of interest to try to solve the ‘filtering problem’; that is, to obtain the best estimate of the claim intensity on the basis of reported claims. In order to use the Kalman-Bucy filter, based on the Cox process incorporating a shot noise process as claim intensity, we need to approximate it by a Gaussian process. We demonstrate that, if the primary-event arrival rate of the shot noise process is reasonably large, we can then approximate the intensity, claim arrival, and aggregate loss processes by a three-dimensional Gaussian process. We establish weak-convergence results. We then use the Kalman-Bucy filter and we obtain the price of reinsurance contracts involving high-frequency events.

In the context of a dividend barrier strategy (see, e.g. Lin, Willmot and Drekic (2003)) we analyze the moments of the discounted dividend payments and the expected discounted penalty function for surplus processes with claims arriving according to a Markovian arrival process (MAP). We show that a relationship similar to the dividend-penalty identity of Gerber, Lin and Yang (2006) can be established for the class of perturbed MAP surplus processes, extending in the process some results of Li and Lu (2008) for the Markov-modulated risk model. Also, we revisit the same ruin-related quantities in an identical MAP risk model with the only exception that the barrier level effective at time t depends on the state of the underlying environment at this time. Similar relationships are investigated and derived. Numerical examples are also considered.

We are given a Markov chain with states 0, 1, 2, ···. We want to get a numerical approximation of the steady-state balance equations. To do this, we truncate the chain, keeping the first n states, make the resulting matrix stochastic in some convenient way, and solve the finite system. The purpose of this paper is to provide some sufficient conditions that imply that as n tends to infinity, the stationary distributions of the truncated chains converge to the stationary distribution of the given chain. Our approach is completely probabilistic, and our conditions are given in probabilistic terms. We illustrate how to verify these conditions with five examples.

In this paper, we propose a new urn model. A single urn contains b black balls and w white balls. For each observation, we randomly draw m balls and note their colors, say k black balls and m − k white balls. We return the drawn balls to the urn with an additional ck black balls and c(m − k) white balls. We repeat this procedure n times and denote by Xn the fraction of black balls after the nth draw. To investigate the asymptotic properties of Xn, we first perform some computational studies. We then show that {Xn} forms a martingale, which converges almost surely to a random variable X. The distribution of X is then shown to be absolutely continuous.

We study the leading term in the small-time asymptotics of at-the-money call option prices when the stock price process S follows a general martingale. This is equivalent to studying the first centered absolute moment of S. We show that if S has a continuous part, the leading term is of order √T in time T and depends only on the initial value of the volatility. Furthermore, the term is linear in T if and only if S is of finite variation. The leading terms for pure-jump processes with infinite variation are between these two cases; we obtain their exact form for stable-like small jumps. To derive these results, we use a natural approximation of S so that calculations are necessary only for the class of Lévy processes.

The paper considers one of the standard processes for modeling returns in finance, the stochastic volatility process with regularly varying innovations. The aim of the paper is to show how point process techniques can be used to derive the asymptotic behavior of the sample autocorrelation function of this process with heavy-tailed marginal distributions. Unlike other non-linear models used in finance, such as GARCH and bilinear models, sample autocorrelations of a stochastic volatility process have attractive asymptotic properties. Specifically, in the infinite variance case, the sample autocorrelation function converges to zero in probability at a rate that is faster the heavier the tails of the marginal distribution. This behavior is analogous to the asymptotic behavior of the sample autocorrelations of independent identically distributed random variables.

In this paper, the instantaneous availability of a system maintained under periodic inspection is investigated using random walk models. Two cases are considered. In the first model, the system is repaired or modified and it is assumed to be as good as new upon periodic inspection and maintenance. In the second model, the system is not modified after the inspection if the system is still working, and the condition of the system is assumed to be the same as that before the inspection. For both models the failures only can be found through the inspection. Perfect repair or replacement of a failed system is assumed to be carried out, but the time it takes can be constant or of a random length. The relationship between this problem and the random walk model in a two-dimensional plane is described. Several new results are also shown.

Some previously obtained asymptotic results for branching Poisson processes are extended and sharpened. It is shown that under rather general conditions the number of events in both the transient and the equilibrium processes, suitably normalized, have a unit normal distribution. Finally, unique initial conditions are derived for the equilibrium process.