In this paper a planar random motion governed by the two-dimensional telegraph equation is presented. It is proved that the particle performing motion is at any time t within a circle centred at the starting point and with radius . The explicit density of the particle position is obtained. Results concerning the trend of motion are also given.

Let X1, X2,… be a sequence of independent random variables and let N be a positive integer-valued random variable which is independent of the Xi. In this paper we obtain some stochastic comparison results involving min {X1, X2,…, XN) and max{X1, X2,…, XN}.

Consequences of embedding sequences {Mn} in an extremal-F process are discussed where Mn represents the maximum of n independent (but not necessarily identically distributed) random variables. Various limit theorems are proved for the sample record rate, record times, inter-record times, and record values. These results are illustrated with applications to three particular record models: the Yang (1975) record model where population size increases geometrically, a record model where linear improvement is present, and a record model incorporating features of the previous two.

We consider the convex ordering for random vectors and some weaker versions of it, like the convex ordering for linear combinations of random variables. First we establish conditions of stochastic equality for random vectors that are ordered by one of the convex orderings. Then we establish necessary and sufficient conditions for the convex ordering to hold in the case of multivariate normal distributions and sufficient conditions for the positive linear convex ordering (without the restriction to multi-normality).

When a mission is assigned, it often is the case that the component used to perform the task is required to work properly during the period of the mission time. In other words, the probability of the event that this component does not fail within the allowable mission time should be as large as possible. This problem is considered for the case when the lifetime of a component has a bathtub-shaped failure rate function, and it is found that burn-in procedure is beneficial. An application of this result to the problem of minimizing the mean number of failures in a given period of mission time is also considered.

Selective predation is an example of biased sampling which gives rise to a non-central multivariate hypergeometric distribution. The probability distribution function of this distribution is derived.

A stochastic model for inter-plant competition in a single-species population is presented, in which the probability that a given plant will be eliminated is defined in terms of the sizes and relative spatial locations of rival plants. The properties of the model are then investigated and illustrations of particular cases given, with particular emphasis on the distribution of the sizes of surviving plants. Empirical comparisons are made between the properties of the model and some experimental results due to Ford (1975b). Some possible extensions to the basic model are suggested.

In this paper we introduce the notion of general final state random variables for generalized epidemic models. These random variables are defined as sums over all ultimately infected individuals of random quantities of interest associated with an individual; examples include final severity. By exploiting a construction originally due to Sellke (1983), exact results concerning the final size and general final state random variables are obtained in terms of Gontcharoff polynomials. In particular, our approach highlights the way in which these polynomials arise via simple probabilistic arguments. For ease of exposition we focus initially upon the single-population case before extending our arguments to multi-population epidemics and other variants of our basic model.

This paper considers a problem of determining the optimal number of units for a parallel redundant system. The optimal number N∗ to minimize the expected cost is given by a unique solution of equations. When the system is replaced before failure at time T, the optimal N∗ and T∗ are discussed, and a computing procedure for obtaining these values is specified.

The random triangle model is a Markov random graph model which, for parameters p ∊ (0,1) and q ≥ 1 and a graph G = (V,E), assigns to a subset, η, of E, a probability which is proportional to p|η|(1-p)|E|-|η|qt(η), where t(η) is the number of triangles in η. It is shown that this model has maximum entropy in the class of distributions with given edge and triangle probabilities.

Using an analogue of the correspondence between the Fortuin-Kesteleyn random cluster model and the Potts model, the asymptotic behavior of the random triangle model on the complete graph is examined for p of order n−α, α > 0, and different values of q, where q is written in the form q = 1 + h(n) / n. It is shown that the model exhibits an explosive behavior in the sense that if h(n) ≤ c log n for c < 3α, then the edge probability and the triangle probability are asymptotically the same as for the ordinary G(n,p) model, whereas if h(n) ≥ c' log n for c' > 3α, then these quantities both tend to 1. For critical values, h(n) = 3α log n + o(log n), the probability mass divides between these two extremes.

Moreover, if h(n) is of higher order than log n, then the probability that η = E tends to 1, whereas if h(n) = o(log n) and α > 2/3, then, with a probability tending to 1, the resulting graph can be coupled with a graph resulting from the G(n,p) model. In particular these facts mean that for values of p in the range critical for the appearance of the giant component and the connectivity of the graph, the way in which triangles are rewarded can only have a degenerate influence.

This paper develops the notion of the limiting age of an absorbing Markov chain, conditional on the present state. Chains with a single absorbing state {0} are considered and with such a chain can be associated a return chain, obtained by restarting the original chain at a fixed state after each absorption. The limiting age, A(j), is the weak limit of the time given Xn = j (n → ∞).

A criterion for the existence of this limit is given and this is shown to be fulfilled in the case of the return chains constructed from the Galton–Watson process and the left-continuous random walk. Limit theorems for A (J) (J → ∞) are given for these examples.

We consider the distribution of the number of generations to extinction in subcritical branching processes, with particular emphasis on applications to the spread of infectious diseases. We derive the generation distributions for processes with Bernoulli, geometric and Poisson offspring, and discuss some of their distributional and inferential properties. We present applications to the spread of infection in highly vaccinated populations, outbreaks of enteric fever, and person-to-person transmission of human monkeypox.

Products of the Laplace transforms of exponential distributions with different parameters are inverted to give a mixture of Erlang densities, i.e. an expression for the convolution of exponentials. The formula for these inversions is expressed both as an explicit sum and in terms of a recurrence relation which is better suited to numerical computation. The recurrence for the inversion of certain weighted sums of these transforms is then solved by converting it into a linear first-order partial differential equation. The result may be used to find the density function of passage times between states in a Markov process and it is applied to derive an expression for cycle time distribution in tree-structured Markovian queueing networks.

This paper extends a result of Godambe's theory of parametric estimation for discrete-time stochastic processes to the continuous-time case. Let P ={P} be a family of probability measures such that (Ω, F, P) is complete, (Ft, t≧0) is a standard filtration, and X = (Xt Ft, t ≧ 0) is a semimartingale for every P ∈ P. For a parameter θ (Ρ), suppose Xt = Vt,θ + Ht,θ where the Vθ process is predictable and locally of bounded variation and the Hθ process is a local martingale. Consider estimating equations for θ of the form process is predictable. Under regularity conditions, an optimal form for α θ in the sense of Godambe (1960) is determined. When Vt,θ is linear in θ the optimal , corresponds to certain maximum likelihood or least squares estimates derived previously in special cases. Asymptotic properties of , are discussed.

The present paper investigates the limiting distribution of the number of busy channels (queue size) and the remaining lengths of holding times at an epoch of departure for a loss system with general holding times and exponentially distributed interarrival times. Further, it is established that for this loss system in the limit an interdeparture interval length is independent of the queue size at the end of the interval and is distributed according to an exponential distribution with mean λ–1. It is also seen that in the limit interdeparture times are mutually independent.

In this paper, we study Markov fluid queues where the net fluid rate to a single-buffer system varies with respect to the state of an underlying continuous-time Markov chain. We present a novel algorithmic approach to solve numerically for the steady-state solution of such queues. Using this approach, both infinite- and finite-buffer cases are studied. We show that the solution of the infinite-buffer case is reduced to the solution of a generalized spectral divide-and-conquer (SDC) problem applied on a certain matrix pencil. Moreover, this SDC problem does not require the individual computation of any eigenvalues and eigenvectors. Via the solution for the SDC problem, a matrix-exponential representation for the steady-state queue-length distribution is obtained. The finite-buffer case, on the other hand, requires a similar but different decomposition, the so-called additive decomposition (AD). Using the AD, we obtain a modified matrix-exponential representation for the steady-state queue-length distribution. The proposed approach for the finite-buffer case is shown not to have the numerical stability problems reported in the literature.

For random variables {Xn, n ≧ 1} unbounded above set Mn = max {X1, X2, …, Xn}. When do normalizing constants bn exist such that Mn/bn→ 1 a.s.; i.e., when is {Mn} a.s. stable? If {Xn} is i.i.d. then {Mn} is a.s. stable iff for all and in this case bn ∼ F–1 (1 – 1/n) Necessary and sufficient conditions for lim supn→∞, Mn/bn = l > 1 a.s. are given and this is shown to be insufficient in general for lim infn→∞Mn/bn = 1 a.s. except when l = 1. When the Xn are r.v.'s defined on a finite Markov chain, one shows by means of an analogue of the Borel Zero-One Law and properties of semi-Markov matrices that the stability problem for this case can be reduced to the i.i.d. case.

We discuss the short-range dependence (SRD) property of the increments of the fractional Poisson process, called the fractional Poissonian noise. We also establish that the fractional negative binomial process (FNBP) has the long-range dependence (LRD) property, while the increments of the FNBP have the SRD property. Our definitions of the SRD/LRD properties are similar to those for a stationary process and different from those recently used in Biard and Saussereau (2014).

We consider an infectious disease spreading along the edges of a network which may have significant clustering. The individuals in the population have heterogeneous infectiousness and/or susceptibility. We define the out-transmissibility of a node to be the marginal probability that it would infect a randomly chosen neighbor given its infectiousness and the distribution of susceptibility. For a given distribution of out-transmissibility, we find the conditions which give the upper (or lower) bounds on the size and probability of an epidemic, under weak assumptions on the transmission properties, but very general assumptions on the network. We find similar bounds for a given distribution of in-transmissibility (the marginal probability of being infected by a neighbor). We also find conditions giving global upper bounds on the size and probability. The distributions leading to these bounds are network independent. In the special case of networks with high girth (locally tree-like), we are able to prove stronger results. In general, the probability and size of epidemics are maximal when the population is homogeneous and minimal when the variance of in- or out-transmissibility is maximal.

In this paper, we propose a customer-arrival-based insurance risk model, in which customers' potential claims are described as independent and identically distributed heavy-tailed random variables and premiums are the same for each policy. We obtain some precise large deviation results for the prospective-loss process under a mild assumption on the random index (in our case, the customer-arrival process), which is much weaker than that in the literature.