Given a coherent reliability system, let Z be the age of the machine at breakdown, and I the set of parts dead by time Z. We prove that if all lifetime distributions are non-atomic and share the same essential extrema, and if the incidence matrix of the minimal cut sets has rank equal to the number of parts, then the joint distribution of Z and I determines uniquely the lifetime distribution of each part. We present a Newton–Kantorovič iterative method for the computation of those distributions. We deal informally with the relaxation of the assumptions and with the statistical problem where instead of the joint distribution of Z and I we have an empirical estimate of this joint distribution.

In reliability studies, it is well known that the mean residual life function determines the distribution function uniquely. In this paper we show how closely we can determine a distribution when its median residual life function M[S | t] is known. This amounts to solving the functional equation , where R is the reliability function. We actually study a more general functional equation f(φ(t)) = sf(t) called Schroder's equation. It is shown that, under mild assumptions on φ, the solution is of the form f(t) = f0(t)k(log f0 (t)), where f0 is a well-behaved particular solution which can be constructed and k is a periodic function; thus the solution is not unique. Two examples are solved to illustrate the method. Finally, these examples are used to solve the problem of linear M[S | t] studied by Schmittlein and Morrison. As an extra benefit, all of our results hold equally well for the more general sth percentile residual life function.

Dependence structures for bivariate extremal events are analyzed using particular types of copula. Weak convergence results for copulas along the lines of the Pickands-Balkema-de Haan theorem provide limiting dependence structures for bivariate tail events. A characterization of these limiting copulas is also provided by means of invariance properties. The results obtained are applied to the credit risk area, where, for intensity-based default models, stress scenario dependence structures for widely traded products such as credit default swap baskets or first-to-default contract types are proposed.

In this paper we study the number of customers in infinite-server queues with a self-exciting (Hawkes) arrival process. Initially we assume that service requirements are exponentially distributed and that the Hawkes arrival process is of a Markovian nature. We obtain a system of differential equations that characterizes the joint distribution of the arrival intensity and the number of customers. Moreover, we provide a recursive procedure that explicitly identifies (transient and stationary) moments. Subsequently, we allow for non-Markovian Hawkes arrival processes and nonexponential service times. By viewing the Hawkes process as a branching process, we find that the probability generating function of the number of customers in the system can be expressed in terms of the solution of a fixed-point equation. We also include various asymptotic results: we derive the tail of the distribution of the number of customers for the case that the intensity jumps of the Hawkes process are heavy tailed, and we consider a heavy-traffic regime. We conclude by discussing how our results can be used computationally and by verifying the numerical results via simulations.

The Poisson shot-noise process discussed here takes the form f:oo H(t, s)N(ds), where N(· is the counting measure of a Poisson process and the H(·, s) are independent stochastic processes. Necessary and sufficient conditions are obtained for convergence in distribution, as t ∼ OC, to any infinitely divisible distribution. The main interest is in the explosive transient one-sided shot-noise, Y(t) = f:1 H(t, s)N(ds) where Var Y(t)∼ oc, Here conditions for asymptotic normality are discussed in detail. Important examples include the Poisson cluster point process and the integrated stationary shotnoise.

We consider the problem of conditioning a continuous-time Markov chain (on a countably infinite state space) not to hit an absorbing barrier before time T; and the weak convergence of this conditional process as T → ∞. We prove a characterization of convergence in terms of the distribution of the process at some arbitrary positive time, t, introduce a decay parameter for the time to absorption, give an example where weak convergence fails, and give sufficient conditions for weak convergence in terms of the existence of a quasi-stationary limit, and a recurrence property of the original process.

In this paper a unified approach is used for proving relationships between customer-stationary and time-stationary characteristics of service systems with varying service rate and point processes. This approach is based on an intensity conservation principle for general stationary continuous-time processes with imbedded stationary marked point processes. It enables us to work under weaker independence assumptions than usual in queueing theory.

Consider a process of identically-shaped (but not necessarily equal-sized) figures (e.g. points, clusters of points, lines, spheres) embedded at random in n-dimensional space. A simple technique is derived for finding the distribution of the distance from a fixed point, chosen independently of the process of figures, to the k th nearest figure. The technique also shows that the distribution is independent of the distribution of the orientations of the figures. It is noted that the distribution obtained above (for equal-sized figures) is identical to the distribution of the distance from a fixed figure to the k th nearest of a random process of points.

The arrival rate of customers to a service facility is assumed to have the form λ(t) = λ(0) — βt2 for some constant β. Diffusion approximations show that for λ(0) sufficiently close to the service rate μ, the mean queue length at time 0 is proportional to β–1/5. A dimensionless form of the diffusion equation is evaluated numerically from which queue lengths can be evaluated as a function of time for all λ(0) and β. Particular attention is given to those situations in which neither deterministic queueing theory nor equilibrium stochastic queueing theory apply.

A biological population with local random mating, migration, and mutation is studied which exhibits clustering at several different levels. The migration is determined by the clustering rather than actual geographic or physical distance. Darwinian selection is assumed to be absent, and population densities are such that nearby individuals have a probability of being related. An expression is found for the equilibrium probability of genetic relatedness between any two individuals as a function of their clustering distance. Asymptotics for a small mutation rate u are discussed for both a finite number of clustering levels (and of total population size), and for an infinite number of levels. A natural example is discussed in which the probability of heterozygosity varies as u to a power times a periodic function of log(l/u).

We prove that if the renewal function M(t) corresponding to a life distribution F is convex (concave) then F is NBU (NWU), and hence answer two questions posed by Shaked and Zhu (1992). Moreover, based-on the renewal function, some characterizations of the exponential distribution within certain classes of life distributions are given.

In this paper we analyze the so-called Parisian ruin probability, which arises when the surplus process stays below 0 longer than a fixed amount of time ζ > 0. We focus on a general spectrally negative Lévy insurance risk process. For this class of processes, we derive an expression for the ruin probability in terms of quantities that can be calculated explicitly in many models. We find its Cramér-type and convolution-equivalent asymptotics when reserves tend to ∞. Finally, we analyze some explicit examples.

Let Xn, n ≥ 1 be a sequence of trials taking values in a given set A, let ∊ be a pattern (simple or compound), and let Xr,∊ be a random variable denoting the waiting time for the rth occurrence of ∊. In the present article a finite Markov chain imbedding method is developed for the study of Xr,∊ in the case of the non-overlapping and overlapping way of counting runs and patterns. Several extensions and generalizations are also discussed.

In the spirit of Albrecher and Hipp (2007), and Albrecher, Renaud, and Zhou (2008) we consider a Lévy insurance risk model with tax payments of a more general structure than in the aforementioned papers, which was also considered in Albrecher, Borst, Boxma, and Resing (2009). In terms of scale functions, we establish three fundamental identities of interest which have stimulated a large volume of actuarial research in recent years. That is to say, the two-sided exit problem, the net present value of tax paid until ruin, as well as a generalized version of the Gerber–Shiu function. The method we appeal to differs from Albrecher and Hipp (2007), and Albrecher, Renaud, and Zhou (2008) in that we appeal predominantly to excursion theory.

Assume that there are k types of insurance contracts in an insurance company. The ith related claims are denoted by {Xij, j ≥ 1}, i = 1,…,k. In this paper we investigate large deviations for both partial sums S(k; n1,…,nk) = ∑i=1k ∑j=1niXij and random sums S(k; t) = ∑i=1k ∑j=1Ni (t)Xij, where Ni(t), i = 1,…,k, are counting processes for the claim number. The obtained results extend some related classical results.

Introduced recently in mathematical finance by Bayer et al. (2016), the rough Bergomi model has proved particularly efficient to calibrate option markets. We investigate some of its probabilistic properties, in particular proving a pathwise large deviations principle for a small-noise version of the model. The exponential function (continuous but superlinear) as well as the drift appearing in the volatility process fall beyond the scope of existing results, and a dedicated analysis is needed.

We consider a class of secretary problems in which the order of arrival of candidates is no longer uniformly distributed. By a suitable embedding in a time-transformed extremal process it is shown that the asymptotic winning probability is again 1/e as in the classical situation. Extensions of the problem to more than one choice are also considered.

Small sample and large sample properties of the bundle strength of parallel filaments studied earlier by Daniels (1945) and Sen, Bhattacharyya, Suh (1969) have been developed here by probabilistic argument. The statistics belong to a family or class of statistics, each of which forms a reverse semi-martingale sequence. Certain moment properties are also discussed.

The asymptotic final size distribution of a multitype Reed–Frost process, a chain-binomial model for the spread of an infectious disease in a finite, closed multitype population, is derived, as the total population size grows large. When all subgroups are of comparable size, the infection pattern irreducible and the epidemic started by a small number of initial infectives, the classical threshold behaviour is obtained, depending on the basic reproduction rate of the disease in the population, and the asymptotic distributions for small and large outbreaks can be found. The same techniques can then be used to study other asymptotic situations, e.g. small groups in an otherwise large population, large numbers of initial infectives and reducible infection patterns.

Some minor corrections to Heyde and Seneta (1972) are made, and new convergence rate results given. Estimation by recurrence methods is discussed, as announced earlier.