We consider solutions of Lévy-driven stochastic differential equations of the form $\textrm{d} X_t=\sigma(X_{t-})\textrm{d} L_t$, $X_0=x$, where the function $\sigma$ is twice continuously differentiable and the driving Lévy process $L=(L_t)_{t\geq0}$ is either vector or matrix valued. While the almost sure short-time behavior of Lévy processes is well known and can be characterized in terms of the characteristic triplet, there is no complete characterization of the behavior of the solution X. Using methods from stochastic calculus, we derive limiting results for stochastic integrals of the form $t^{-p}\int_{0+}^t\sigma(X_{t-})\,\textrm{d} L_t$ to show that the behavior of the quantity $t^{-p}(X_t-X_0)$ for $t\downarrow0$ almost surely reflects the behavior of $t^{-p}L_t$. Generalizing $t^{{\kern1pt}p}$ to a suitable function $f\colon[0,\infty)\rightarrow\mathbb{R}$ then yields a tool to derive explicit law of the iterated logarithm type results for the solution from the behavior of the driving Lévy process.

Consider a bipartite random geometric graph on the union of two independent homogeneous Poisson point processes in d-space, with distance parameter r and intensities λ,μ. For any λ>0 we consider the percolation threshold μc(λ) associated to the parameter μ. Denoting by λc the percolation threshold for the standard Poisson Boolean model with radii r, we show the lower bound μc(λ)≥clog(c∕(λ−λc)) for any λ>λc with c>0 a fixed constant. In particular, there is no phase transition in μ at the critical value of λ, that is, μc(λc) =∞.

We study a renewal theory approach to perpetual two-state switching problems with infinite value functions. Since the corresponding value functions are infinite, the problems fall outside the standard class of problems which can be analyzed using dynamic programming. Instead, we propose an alternative formulation of optimal switching theory in which optimality of a strategy is defined in terms of its long-term mean return, which can be determined using renewal theory. The approach is illustrated by examples in connection with trend-following strategies in finance.

This paper first considers a simple deterministic epidemic in a growing population. It then examines a simple deterministic epidemic in several related growing communities, where infection is transmitted between individuals both within and across the communities. An explicit parametric solution is derived for the number of susceptibles in these communities as a function of time.

Consider a sequence U1, U2, · ·· of i.i.d. uniform (0, 1)-random variables. For fixed α ∈ (0, 1), let U(n, K) denote the [Kα]th order statistic of the subsample Un+1, · ··, Un+K, and set . Book and Truax (1976) proved the following analogue of the Erdös-Rényi (1970) strong law of large numbers: for α < u < 1 and C = C(α, u) such that −1/C = αlog(u/α)+ (1 – α)log((l – u)/(1 –α)), it holds almost surely that In view of the Deheuvels–Devroye (1983) improvements of the original Erdös-Rényi law, we determine the lim inf and lim sup of where K = [C log N]. This improves (∗), showing that it holds with a best-possible convergence rate of order O(log log N/log N). Using the quantile transformation the result can be extended to a general i.i.d. sequence X1, X2, · ·· with d.f. F satisfying a strict monotonicity condition.

After some reminiscences about the founding of the Applied Probability journals the author discusses three open problems concerned respectively with:

(i) the prehistory of applied probability

(ii) Poisson–Delauney Simplexes

(iii) voids and pancakes in the universe.

We provide the explicit expression for the mean coverage function of a generalized voter model on a regular lattice and establish a characterization of the class of the above processes. As a result, we derive the exact rate of convergence of the considered processes to the steady state. We also prove the existence of different processes with the same mean coverage function on a given lattice.

We provide a formal proof of a conclusion due to Abakuks (1974) which states that the expected number of survivors in Downton's carrier-borne epidemic model approaches the limit (ρ /π)δ as the initial number of susceptibles tends to infinity. Here ρ denotes the relative removal rate for carriers, π denotes the conditional probability that an infected susceptible will become a carrier, δ denotes the Kronecker delta function and denotes the initial number of carriers.

This paper addresses random packing of equal-sized disks in a manner such that no disk has a gap on its circumference large enough to accommodate an extra touching neighbour. This structure generalises the deterministic packing models discussed in classical geometry (Coxeter (1961), Hilbert and Cohn-Vossen (1952)). Relationships with the dual mosaic formed by joining the centres of touching disks are established. Constraints on the neighbourhood of disks and on the packing density are established.

We present a very short derivation of the integral representation of the two-sided Skorokhod reflection Z of a continuous function X of bounded variation, which is a generalization of the integral representation of the one-sided map featured in Anantharam and Konstantopoulos (2011) and Konstantopoulos et al. (1996). We also show that Z satisfies a simpler integral representation when additional conditions are imposed on X.

Consider a Pólya urn with balls of several colours, where balls are drawn sequentially and each drawn ball is immediately replaced together with a fixed number of balls of the same colour. It is well known that the proportions of balls of the different colours converge in distribution to a Dirichlet distribution. We show that the rate of convergence is $\Theta(1/n)$ in the minimal $L_p$ metric for any $p\in[1,\infty]$, extending a result by Goldstein and Reinert; we further show the same rate for the Lévy distance, while the rate for the Kolmogorov distance depends on the parameters, i.e. on the initial composition of the urn. The method used here differs from the one used by Goldstein and Reinert, and uses direct calculations based on the known exact distributions.

In this paper we quantify the efficiency of parallelism in systems that are prone to failures and exhibit power law processing delays. We characterize the performance of two prototype schemes of parallelism, redundant and split, in terms of both the power law exponent and exact asymptotics of the delay distribution tail. We also develop the optimal splitting scheme which ensures that split always outperforms redundant.

This paper presents a study of the intertemporal propagation of distributional properties of phenotypes in general polygenic multisex inheritance models with sex- and time-dependent heritabilities. It further analyzes the implications of these models under heavy-tailedness of traits' initial distributions. Our results suggest the optimality of a flexible asexual/binary mating system. Switching between asexual and binary inheritance mechanisms allows the population effectively to achieve a fast suppression of negative traits and a fast dispersion of positive traits, regardless of the distributional properties of the phenotypes in the initial period.

After suitable normalization the asymptotic root value W of a minimax game tree of order b ≥ 2 with independent and identically distributed input values having a continuous, strictly increasing distribution function on a subinterval of R appears to be a particular solution of the stochastic maximin fixed-point equation W ξ max1≤i≤bmin1≤j≤bWi,j, where Wi,j are independent copies of W and denotes equality in law. Moreover, ξ= g'(α) > 1, where g(x) := (1 − (1 − x)b)b and α denotes the unique fixed point of g in (0, 1). This equation, which takes the form F(t) = g(F(t/ξ)) in terms of the distribution function F of W, is studied in the present paper for a reasonably extended class of functions g so as to encompass more general stochastic maximin equations as well. A complete description of the set of solutions F is provided followed by a discussion of additional properties such as continuity, differentiability, or existence of moments. Based on these results, it is further shown that the particular solution mentioned above stands out among all other ones in that its distribution function is the restriction of an entire function to the real line. This extends recent work of Ali Khan, Devroye and Neininger (2005). A connection with another class of stochastic fixed-point equations for weighted minima and maxima is also discussed.

It is well know that the expected exponentially discounted total reward for a stochastic process can also be defined as the expected total undiscounted reward earned before an independent exponential stopping time (let us call this the stopped reward). Feinberg and Fei (2009) recently showed that the variance of the discounted reward is smaller than the variance of the stopped reward. We strengthen this result to show that the discounted reward is smaller than the stopped reward in the convex ordering sense.

An infinite sequence (Y1, Y2,…) of independent Bernoulli random variables with P(Yi = 1) = a / (a + b + i - 1), i = 1, 2,…, where a > 0 and b ≥ 0, will be called a Bern(a, b) sequence. Consider the counts Z1, Z2, Z3,… of occurrences of patterns or strings of the form {11}, {101}, {1001},…, respectively, in this sequence. The joint distribution of the counts Z1, Z2,… in the infinite Bern(a, b) sequence has been studied extensively. The counts from the initial finite sequence (Y1, Y2,…, Yn) have been studied by Holst (2007), (2008b), who obtained the joint factorial moments for Bern(a, 0) and the factorial moments of Z1, the count of the string {1, 1}, for a general Bern(a, b). We consider stopping the Bernoulli sequence at a random time and describe the joint distribution of counts, which extends Holst's results. We show that the joint distribution of counts from a class of randomly stopped Bernoulli sequences possesses the mixture of independent Poissons property: there is a random vector conditioned on which the counts are independent Poissons. To obtain these results, we extend the conditional marked Poisson process technique introduced in Huffer, Sethuraman and Sethuraman (2009). Our results avoid previous combinatorial and induction methods which generally only yield factorial moments.

Individuals arrive at a geographical area that is initially empty, in accordance with a pure birth process with birth parameters λj = jλ + θ, j ≧ 0. Due to contamination, this geographical area is unsafe for its population and at some fixed time T in the future everyone in the area will be evacuated and no further immigration will be allowed.

Suppose now than an intermediate evacuation time τ, 0 ≦ τ ≦ T, at which time everyone present in the area would be evacuated, is to be chosen. The area would then again fill up with individuals between times τ and T, and, at T, the final evacuation would be made and the area would be permanently sealed off. The problem is to choose τ so as to minimise the total expected cost incurred by time T, where a cost g(x) is incurred for each individual that spends a time x in the area.

The joint distribution of the time since last exit, and the time until next entrance, into a unique boundary point is given in Formula (1) below. The boundary point may be replaced by a regenerative phenomenon.