This paper analyzes optimal single and multiple stopping rules for a class of correlated random walks that provides an elementary model for processes exhibiting momentum or directional reinforcement behavior. Explicit descriptions of optimal stopping rules are given in several interesting special cases with and without transaction costs. Numerical examples are presented comparing optimal strategies to simpler buy and hold strategies.

This paper identifies a probability structure for queues that belong to the class of vacation systems operating according to Markov schedules, admitting a wide variety of server scheduling disciplines including most disciplines associated with those M/GI/1/L vacation systems reported in the literature. The conditions that define these schedules are identified, and it is shown that when these conditions are satisfied, queueing behavior is governed by an underlying Markov renewal/semi-regenerative structure. A simple example is examined (the M/GI/1 vacation system with limited batch service) to demonstrate the usefulness and generality of the underlying probability structure.

This paper studies the expected average cost control problem for discrete-time Markov decision processes with denumerably infinite state spaces. A sequence of finite state space truncations is defined such that the average costs and average optimal policies in the sequence converge to the optimal average cost and an optimal policy in the original process. The theory is illustrated with several examples from the control of discrete-time queueing systems. Numerical results are discussed.

We develop a new, self-contained proof that the expected number of generations required for gene allele fixation or extinction in a population of size n is O(n) under general assumptions. The proof relies on a discrete Markov chain analysis. We further develop an algorithm to compute expected fixation or extinction time to any desired precision. Our proofs establish O(nH(p)) as the expected time for gene allele fixation or extinction for the Fisher-Wright problem, where the gene occurs with initial frequency p and H(p) is the entropy function. Under a weaker hypothesis on the variance, the expected time is O(n(p(1-p))1/2) for fixation or extinction. Thus, the expected-time bound of O(n) for fixation or extinction holds in a wide range of situations. In the multi-allele case, the expected time for allele fixation or extinction in a population of size n with n distinct alleles is shown to be O(n). From this, a new proof is given of a coalescence theorem about the mean time to the most recent common ancestor (MRCA), which applies to a broad range of reproduction models satisfying our mean and weak variation conditions.

We define the ‘linear scan transform' G of a set in ℝd using information observable on its one-dimensional linear transects. This transform determines the set covariance function, interpoint distance distribution, and (for convex sets) the chord length distribution. Many basic integral-geometric formulae used in stereology can be expressed as identities for G. We modify a construction of Waksman (1987) to construct a metric η for ‘regular' subsets of ℝd defined as the L1 distance between their linear scan transforms. For convex sets only, η is topologically equivalent to the Hausdorff metric. The set covariance function (of a generally non-convex set) depends continuously on its set argument, with respect to η and the uniform metric on covariance functions.

In this paper, isotropic random projections of d-sets in ℝn are studied, where a d-set is a subset of a d-dimensional affine subspace which satisfies certain regularity conditions. The squared volume reduction induced by the projection of a d-set onto an isotropic random p-subspace is shown to be distributed as a product of independent beta-distributed random variables, for d ≤ p. One of the proofs of this result uses Wilks' lambda distribution from multivariate normal theory. The result is related to Cauchy's and Crofton's formulae in stochastic geometry. In particular, it can be used to give a new and quite simple proof of one of the classical Crofton intersection formulae.

This paper is concerned with the shape-density for a random triangle whose vertices are randomly labelled and i.i.d.-uniform in a compact convex polygon K. In earlier work we have already shown that there is a network of curves (the singular tessellation T(K)) across which suffers discontinuities of form. In two papers which will appear in parallel with this, Hui-lin Le finds explicit formulae for (i) the form of within the basic tile T0 of T(K), and (ii) the jump-functions which link the local forms of on either side of any curve separating two tiles. Here we exploit these calculations to find in the most general case. We describe the geometry of T(K), we examine the real-analytic structure of within a tile, and we establish by analytic continuation an explicit formula giving in an arbitrary tile T as the sum of the basic-tile function and the members of a finite sequence of jump-functions along a ‘stepping-stone' tile-to-tile route from T0 to T. Finally we comment on some of the problems that arise in the use of this formula in studies relating to the applications in archaeology and astronomy.

We consider two variants of M/G/1 queues with exhaustive service and multiple vacations; (1) customers cannot wait for their services longer than an interval of length T, and (2) customers cannot stay in the system longer than an interval of length T. We show that the probability distribution functions of the waiting times for the two systems are given in terms of those for the corresponding M/G/1 vacation systems without any residence-time limits.

We consider partial customer flexibility in service systems under two different designs. In the first design, flexible customers have their own queue and each server has its own queue of dedicated customers. Under this model, the problem is a scheduling problem and we show under various settings that the dedicated customers first (DCF) policy is optimal. In the second design, flexible customers are not queued separately and must be routed to one of the server's dedicated queues upon arrival. We extend earlier results about the ‘join the smallest work (JSW)’ policy to systems with dedicated as well as flexible arrivals. We compare these models to a routeing model in which only the queue length is available in terms of both efficiency and fairness and argue that the overall best approach for call centers is JSW routeing. We also discuss how this can be implemented in call centers even when work is unknown.

In this paper we consider the observed lifetime of a multistate monotone system and ‘the critical lower set' which causes the system deterioration. Then, under suitable conditions, we identify the component lifetime distribution using a Newton–Kantorovic iterative procedure as in Meilijson (1981).

In this paper we study the speed of infection spread and the survival of the contact process in the random geometric graph G = G(n, rn, f) of n nodes independently distributed in S = [-½, ½]2 according to a certain density f(·). In the first part of the paper we assume that infection spreads from one node to another at unit rate and that infected nodes stay in the same state forever. We provide an explicit lower bound on the speed of infection spread and prove that infection spreads in G with speed at least D1nrn2. In the second part of the paper we consider the contact process ξt on G where infection spreads at rate λ > 0 from one node to another and each node independently recovers at unit rate. We prove that, for every λ > 0, with high probability, the contact process on G survives for an exponentially long time; there exist positive constants c1 and c2 such that, with probability at least 1 - c1 / n4, the contact process starting with all nodes infected survives up to time tn = exp(c2n/logn) for all n.

It is shown that no condition of the form E[g(N)] =∞, where N denotes a typical family size, is sufficient for explosiveness of a Markov branching process.

We consider a class of infinite time horizon optimal stopping problems for spectrally negative Lévy processes. Focusing on strategies of threshold type, we write explicit expressions for the corresponding expected payoff via the scale function, and further pursue optimal candidate threshold levels. We obtain and show the equivalence of the continuous/smooth fit condition and the first-order condition for maximization over threshold levels. As examples of its applications, we give a short proof of the McKean optimal stopping problem (perpetual American put option) and solve an extension to Egami and Yamazaki (2013).

Zero-sum two-person finite undiscounted (limiting ratio average) semi-Markov games (SMGs) are considered with a general multichain structure. We derive the strategy evaluation equations for stationary strategies of the players. A relation between the payoff in the multichain SMG and that in the associated stochastic game (SG) obtained by a data-transformation is established. We prove that the multichain optimality equations (OEs) for an SMG have a solution if and only if the associated SG has optimal stationary strategies. Though the solution of the OEs may not be optimal for an SMG, we establish the significance of studying the OEs for a multichain SMG. We provide a nice example of SMGs in which one player has no optimal strategy in the stationary class but has an optimal semistationary strategy (that depends only on the initial and current state of the game). For an SMG with absorbing states, we prove that solutions in the game where all players are restricted to semistationary strategies are solutions for the unrestricted game. Finally, we prove the existence of stationary optimal strategies for unichain SMGs and conclude that the unichain condition is equivalent to require that the game satisfies some recurrence/ergodicity/weakly communicating conditions.

Likelihood ratios are used in computer simulation to estimate expectations with respect to one law from simulation of another. This importance sampling technique can be implemented with either the likelihood ratio at the end of the simulated time horizon or with a sequence of likelihood ratios at intermediate times. Since a likelihood ratio process is a martingale, the intermediate values are conditional expectations of the final value and their use introduces no bias.

We provide conditions under which using conditional expectations in this way brings guaranteed variance reduction. We use stochastic orderings to get positive dependence between a process and its likelihood ratio, from which variance reduction follows. Our analysis supports the following rough statement: for increasing functionals of associated processes with monotone likelihood ratio, conditioning helps. Examples are drawn from recursively defined processes, Markov chains in discrete and continuous time, and processes with Poisson input.

In this paper, we study the superposition of finitely many Markov renewal processes with countable state spaces. We define the S-Markov renewal equations associated with the superposed process. The solutions of the S-Markov renewal equations are derived and the asymptotic behaviors of these solutions are studied. These results are applied to calculate various characteristics of queueing systems with superposition semi-Markovian arrivals, queueing networks with bulk service, system availability, and continuous superposition remaining and current life processes.

A continuous-time threshold autoregressive process of order two (CTAR(2)) is constructed as the first component of the unique (in law) weak solution of a stochastic differential equation. The Cameron–Martin–Girsanov formula and a random time-change are used to overcome the difficulties associated with possible discontinuities and degeneracies in the coefficients of the stochastic differential equation. A sequence of approximating processes that are well-suited to numerical calculations is shown to converge in distribution to a solution of this equation, provided the initial state vector has finite second moments. The approximating sequence is used to fit a CTAR(2) model to percentage relative daily changes in the Australian All Ordinaries Index of share prices by maximization of the ‘Gaussian likelihood'. The advantages of non-linear relative to linear time series models are briefly discussed and illustrated by means of the forecasting performance of the model fitted to the All Ordinaries Index.

By imbedding the multitype version of the standard epidemic model in a multiparameter process, we derive a functional limit theorem for the total cost of the epidemics.

A random spatial coverage process whose generating point process is homogeneous Poisson, and whose attached random sets are independent and identically distributed, is called a Boolean model. Motivated by Błaszczyszyn et al. [1], distributional and higher moment properties of the size of clumps (connected clusters of overlapping sets) in this model are derived. This provides some complements to the result on the finiteness of the first moment presented in Hall [3]. The key idea is to construct a certain coupling process for a multitype branching process that dominates the clump size.

The paper deals with asymptotic properties of the transition probabilities of a countable non-homogeneous Markov chain, the main concept used in the proofs being that of the tail σ-field of the chain. A state classification similar to that existing in the homogeneous case is given and a strong ratio limit property is shown to parallel the basic limit theorem for positive homogeneous chains. Some global asymptotic properties for null chains are also derived.