Over the last four years the Forestry Commission has conducted sample surveys to estimate the spread of Dutch Elm disease in England and Wales. The data were described and some of the problems of making inferences from them were indicated. These include the definition of an individual elm tree, the two main modes of infection, the complexity of the spatial distribution of elms and the existence of at least two strains of the fungus C. ulmi with different pathogenicity.

The theory of influence and sharp threshold is a key tool in probability and probabilistic combinatorics, with numerous applications. One significant aspect of the theory is directed at identifying the level of generality of the product probability space that accommodates the event under study. We derive the influence inequality for a completely general product space, by establishing a relationship to the Lebesgue cube studied by Bourgain, Kahn, Kalai, Katznelson and Linial (BKKKL) in 1992. This resolves one of the assertions of BKKKL. Our conclusion is valid also in the setting of the generalized influences of Keller.

In earlier work, we investigated the dynamics of shape when rectangles are split into two. Further exploration, into the more general issues of Markovian sequences of rectangular shapes, has identified four particularly appealing problems. These problems, which lead to interesting invariant distributions on [0,1], have motivating links with the classical works of Blaschke, Crofton, D. G. Kendall, Rényi and Sulanke.

Kuznetsov and co-authors in 2011‒14 introduced the family of hypergeometric Lévy processes. They appear naturally in the study of fluctuations of stable processes when one analyses stable processes through the theory of positive self-similar Markov processes. Hypergeometric Lévy processes are defined through their characteristic exponent, which, as a complex-valued function, has four independent parameters. In 2014 it was shown that the definition of a hypergeometric Lévy process could be taken to include a greater range of the aforesaid parameters than originally specified. In this short article, we push the parameter range even further.

We study shot noise processes with cluster arrivals, in which entities in each cluster may experience random delays (possibly correlated), and noises within each cluster may be correlated. We prove functional limit theorems for the process in the large-intensity asymptotic regime, where the arrival rate gets large while the shot shape function, cluster sizes, delays, and noises are unscaled. In the functional central limit theorem, the limit process is a continuous Gaussian process (assuming the arrival process satisfies a functional central limit theorem with a Brownian motion limit). We discuss the impact of the dependence among the random delays and among the noises within each cluster using several examples of dependent structures. We also study infinite-server queues with cluster/batch arrivals where customers in each batch may experience random delays before receiving service, with similar dependence structures.

Particles may be removed from a lattice by murder, coalescence, mutual annihilation and simple death. If the particle system is not to die out, the removed particles must be replaced by births. This letter shows that coalescence can be counteracted by arbitrarily small birth-rates and contrasts this with the situations for annihilation and pure death where there are critical phenomena. The problem is unresolved for murder.

We adapt the classical definition of locally stationary processes in discrete time (see e.g. Dahlhaus, ‘Locally stationary processes’, in Time Series Analysis: Methods and Applications (2012)) to the continuous-time setting and obtain equivalent representations in the time and frequency domains. From this, a unique time-varying spectral density is derived using the Wigner–Ville spectrum. As an example, we investigate time-varying Lévy-driven state space processes, including the class of time-varying Lévy-driven CARMA processes. First, the connection between these two classes of processes is examined. Considering a sequence of time-varying Lévy-driven state space processes, we then give sufficient conditions on the coefficient functions that ensure local stationarity with respect to the given definition.

We present a detailed analysis of random motions moving in higher spaces with a natural number of velocities. In the case of the so-called minimal random dynamics, under some broad assumptions, we give the joint distribution of the position of the motion (for both the inner part and the boundary of the support) and the number of displacements performed with each velocity. Explicit results for cyclic and complete motions are derived. We establish useful relationships between motions moving in different spaces, and we derive the form of the distribution of the movements in arbitrary dimension. Finally, we investigate further properties for stochastic motions governed by non-homogeneous Poisson processes.

In this paper we estimate the expected error of a stochastic approximation algorithm where the maximum of a function is found using finite differences of a stochastic representation of that function. An error estimate of the order $n^{-1/5}$ for the nth iteration is achieved using suitable parameters. The novelty with respect to previous studies is that we allow the stochastic representation to be discontinuous and to consist of possibly dependent random variables (satisfying a mixing condition).

Let be a collection of n uniform, independent, and identically distributed points on the Cantor ternary set. We consider the asymptotics for the expected total edge length of the directed and undirected nearest-neighbor graph on We prove convergence to a constant of the rescaled expected total edge length of this random graph. The rescaling factor is a function of the fractal dimension and has a log-periodic, nonconstant behavior.

We present a simple derivation for an approximation to the transient blocking probability of an M/M/N loss system.

Hazard rates play an important role in various areas, e.g. reliability theory, survival analysis, biostatistics, queueing theory, and actuarial studies. Mixtures of distributions are also of great preeminence in such areas as most populations of components are indeed heterogeneous. In this study we present a sufficient condition for mixtures of two elements of the same natural exponential family (NEF) to have an increasing hazard rate. We then apply this condition to some classical NEFs having either quadratic or cubic variance functions (VFs) and others as well. Particular attention is paid to the hyperbolic cosine NEF having a quadratic VF, the Ressel NEF having a cubic VF, and the NEF generated by Kummer distributions of type 2. The application of such a sufficient condition is quite intricate and cumbersome, in particular when applied to the latter three NEFs. Various lemmas and propositions are needed to verify this condition for such NEFs. It should be pointed out, however, that our results are mainly applied to a mixture of two populations.