Here we report our recent prediction of the solar cycle 25 based on a newly developed scheme, which is used to investigate the predictability of the solar cycle over one cycle. The scheme is a combination of the empirical properties of solar cycles and a surface flux transport model to get the possible axial dipole moment evolution at a few years before cycle minimum, by which to get the subsequent cycle strength based on the correlation between the axial dipole moment at cycle minimum and the subsequent cycle strength. We apply this scheme to predict the large-scale field evolution since 2018 onwards. The results show that the northern polar field will keep on increasing, while the southern polar field almost keeps flat by the end of cycle 24. This leads to the cycle 25 strength of 125 ± 32, which is about 10% stronger than cycle 24 according to the mean value.

Our understanding of stellar dynamos has largely been driven by the phenomena we have observed of our own Sun. Yet, as we amass longer-term datasets for an increasing number of stars, it is clear that there is a wide variety of stellar behavior. Here we briefly review observed trends that place key constraints on the fundamental dynamo operation of solar-type stars to fully convective M dwarfs, including: starspot and sunspot patterns, various magnetism-rotation correlations, and mean field flows such as differential rotation and meridional circulation. We also comment on the current insight that simulations of dynamo action and flux emergence lend to our working knowledge of stellar dynamo theory. While the growing landscape of both observations and simulations of stellar magnetic activity work in tandem to decipher dynamo action, there are still many puzzles that we have yet to fully understand.

Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) contribute to the perturbation of solar wind in the heliosphere. Thus, depending on the different phases of the solar cycle and the rate of CME occurrence, contribution of CMEs to solar wind parameters near the Earth changes. In the present study, we examine the long term occurrence rate of CMEs, their speeds, angular widths and masses. We attempt to find correlation between near sun parameters of the CMEs with near the Earth measurements. Importantly, we attempt to find what fraction of the averaged solar wind mass near the Earth is provided by the CMEs during different phases of the solar cycles.

Full disk magnetic field measurements of the photosphere and chromosphere have been performed at National Solar Observatory (NSO), USA for many decades. Here we briefly describe recent upgrades made to this synoptic observing program. In particular, we present the full Stokes polarimetry observations made using the chromospheric Ca II 854.2 nm spectral line. These new observations have the potential to probe vector nature of magnetic field in the chromosphere above the active regions and provide improved estimates of magnetic free-energy, which is released during flares and coronal mass ejections (CMEs). We emphasize that these observations could improve estimates of polar fields, as compared to photospheric observations, due to magnetic field expansion in higher layers and perspective effect near the polar regions. The global coronal potential field models and solar wind speed estimates depend critically on polar field measurements.

An investigation for search of correlation between the daily observations of mean magnetic field and daily flare count number in different class is studied here. The daily observations for mean magnetic field presented here are taken by Wilcox Solar observatory and daily flare count in different X-ray class is provided by National Centers For Environmental Information.

We have studied three Interplanetary Coronal Mass Ejections (ICMEs) having clear signatures of magnetic cloud (MC) arrival at 1 AU and their associated solar sources during 2011 to 2013. Comparing the axial magnetic field strength (B0) of the near-Sun coronal flux-ropes with that of the MC at 1 AU, we have found that the average inferred value of B0 at 1 AU assuming the self-similar expansion of the flux-rope is two times smaller than the value of B0 obtained from the results of MC fitting. Furthermore, by comparing the initial orientation of the flux-rope near the Sun and its final orientation at 1 AU we have found that the three CMEs exhibited more than 80° rotation during its propagation through the interplanetary medium. Our study suggests that although the near-Sun magnetic properties of coronal flux-ropes can be used to infer the field strength of the associated MC at 1 AU, it is difficult to estimate the final orientation of the MC axis in order to predict the geo-effectiveness of the ICMEs.

The polar magnetic field of the Sun is a manifestation of certain aspects of the dynamo process and is a good precursor for predicting a sunspot cycle before its onset. Although actual synoptic measurements of this field exist only from the mid-1970s, it has now been possible to determine its evolution from the beginning of the twentieth century with the help of various proxies. The recently developed 3D kinematic dynamo model can study the build-up of the Sun’s polar magnetic field more realistically than the earlier surface flux transport model.

The particular environment with high temperature and low plasma density in the corona results to the formation of some forbidden emission lines, in which the well-known green line at 530.3 nm has been utilized to diagnose the corona for a few decades. For the green line, besides its contribution on revealing the long-term coronal cycles as well as their relationship to the other solar phenomena, it is also helpful to detect limb coronal waves and ejections originated from the lower corona which seems not to be paid close attention to. Suggestions are presented that we not only need to keep the green line observation as a routine task for current coronagraph observations, but need to develop larger coronagraphs with advanced technology.

Regular reconstruction of global solar corona constrained by observational data is required to monitor the space weather variations. We develop a model for simulating the global coronal magnetic field using magnetofrictional approach. Here we perform simulations to study the evolution of the magnetic field associated with a bipolar active region in response to photospheric flows.

Superposed epoch analysis (SPEA) is commonly used to determine some basic structure in a collection of geophysical time series. The present study tries to analyze ionospheric Joule heating response at high latitudes, to the prevailing solar wind and IMF conditions on the basis of SPEA. Major geomagnetic storms (CME driven) over three consecutive solar cycles (SC 22, 23 and 24) have been selected. Ascending phase, solar maximum, and declining phase are investigated separately, for each solar cycle, to find out crucial controlling parameters for the generation of high-latitude ionospheric Joule heating. SPEA results show that, IMF parameters such as IMF By, IMF Bz, IMF clock angle and solar wind parameters such as dynamic pressure and proton density influence Joule heating production rate significantly. Meanwhile, the relentlessness of the other parameters such as IMFBt and solar wind bulk speed show that they have poor impact on Joule heating.

After decades of effort, the solar magnetic cycle is exceptionally well characterized, but it remains poorly understood. Pioneering work at the Mount Wilson Observatory demonstrated that other Sun-like stars also show regular activity cycles, and identified two distinct relationships between the rotation rate and the length of the cycle. The solar cycle appears to be an outlier, falling between the two stellar relationships, potentially threatening the very foundation of the solar-stellar connection. Recent discoveries emerging from NASA’s Kepler space telescope have started to shed light on this perplexing result, suggesting that the Sun’s rotation rate and magnetic field are currently in a transitional phase that occurs in all middle-aged stars. We have recently identified the manifestation of this magnetic transition in the best available data on stellar cycles. These observations suggest that the solar cycle is currently growing longer on stellar evolutionary timescales, and that the global dynamo may shut down entirely sometime in the next 0.8-2.4 Gyr. Future tests of this hypothesis will come from ground-based activity monitoring of Kepler targets that span the magnetic transition, and from asteroseismology with the TESS mission to determine precise masses and ages for bright stars with known cycles.

We analyze Sun-as-a-star observations spanning over solar cycles 22 – 24 from the ground-based network BiSON and solar cycles 23 – 24 collected by the space-based VIRGO and GOLF instruments on board the SoHO satellite. Using simultaneous observations from all three instruments, our analysis suggests that the structural and magnetic changes responsible for modifying the frequencies remained comparable between cycle 23 and cycle 24 but differ from cycle 22. Thus we infer that the magnetic layer of the Sun has become thinner since the beginning of cycle 23 and continues during the current cycle.

New developments in surface flux transport modeling and theory of flux transport dynamos have given rise to the notion that certain large active regions with anomalous properties (location, tilt angle and/or Hale/non-Hale character) may have a major impact on the course of solar activity in subsequent years, impacting also on the amplitude of the following solar cycles. Here we discuss our current understanding of the role of such “rogue” active regions in cycle-to-cycle variations of solar activity.

Generally Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) are large eruptions of plasma and magnetic field from the Sun into interplanetary space. CMEs are most frequently associated with a variety of phenomena occurring in the lower corona before, during and after onset of eruption and generally are visible in coronagraph observation. Stealth CMEs do not obviously exhibit any of the low-coronal signatures (LCS) like solar flares, flows, jets, coronal dimmings or brightenings, filament eruptions or the formation of flare loop arcades. In this study, five stealth CMEs are selected using LASCO/SOHO CME catalogue and associated ICMEs (Interplanetaty CMEs) are identified using data from STEREO, ACE and WIND.

The observed convective flows on the photosphere (e.g., supergranulation, granulation) play a key role in the Babcock-Leighton (BL) process to generate large scale polar fields from sunspots fields. In most surface flux transport (SFT) and BL dynamo models, the dispersal and migration of surface fields is modeled as an effective turbulent diffusion. We present the first kinematic 3D FT/BL model to explicitly incorporate realistic convective flows based on solar observations. The results obtained are generally in good agreement with the observed surface flux evolution and with non-convective models that have a turbulent diffusivity on the order of 3 × 1012 cm2 s−1 (300 km2 s−1). However, we find that the use of a turbulent diffusivity underestimates the dynamo efficiency, producing weaker mean fields and shorter cycle.

We are performed the digitization of the prominences from the full disk observations of the Sun in the CaIIK line Kodaikanal Observatory for the period 1904-1954. These data were supplemented by digitization of prominences data on Wolfer atlases for the period 1887-1900 and observations of Kislovodsk Observatory in the period 1957-2017. Particular attention was paid to study of the polar crown prominences drift time. The time interval of the prominence drift is ambiguous from the sunspot cycle amplitude.

An onboard automated coronal mass ejections (CMEs) detection algorithm has been developed for Visible Emission Line Coronagraph (VELC) onboard ADITYA-L1. The aim of this algorithm is to reduce the load on telemetry by sending the high spatial (~ 2.51 arcsec pixel−1) and temporal (1 s) resolution images of corona from 1.05 R⊙ to 3 R⊙, containing CMEs and rejecting others. It is based on intensity thresholding followed by an area thresholding in successive running difference images which are re-binned to lower resolution to improve signal to noise. Here we present the results of application of the algorithm on synthetic corona images generated for the VELC field of view (FOV).

In this paper we have studied space weather conditions near 53 potentially habitable exoplanets reported in literature using available information on the chromoshperic activity of their host stars and nature of dynamical interactions possible in the respective star-planetary systems.

We utilized line-of-sight magnetograms acquired by HMI/SDO to derive the value of turbulent magnetic diffusivity in undisturbed photosphere. Two areas, a coronal hole area (CH) and an area a super-granulation pattern, SG, were analyzed. The behavior of the turbulent diffusion coefficient on time scales of 1000-40000 s and spatial scales of 500-6000 km was explored. Small magnetic elements in both CH and SG areas disperse in the same way and they are more mobile than the large elements. The regime of super-diffusivity is found for small elements (the turbulent diffusion coefficient K growths from 100 to 300 km2 s−1). Large magnetic elements disperse differently in the CH and SG areas. Comparison of these results with the previously published shows that there is a tendency of saturation of the diffusion coefficient on large scales, i.e., the turbulent regime of super-diffusivity gradually ceases so that normal diffusion with a constant value of K ≈ 500 km2 s−1 might be observed on time scales longer than a day. The results show that the turbulent diffusivity should not be considered in modeling as a scalar, the flux- and scale-dependence is obvious.

Solar activity is observed to fluctuate with time, undergoing a wide range of periodicities from minutes up to thousands of years as evinced from proxies based on cosmogenic isotopes. In this work, we apply Multichannel Singular Spectrum Analysis (MSSA), a data-adaptive, multivariate technique that simultaneously exploits the spatial and temporal correlations of the input data to extract common modes of variability to investigate the intermediate quasi-periodicities of the green coronal emission line at 530.3 nm for the period between 1944 and 2008. A preliminary MSSA analysis confirms the presence of significant quasi-biennial oscillations in the data with amplitude varying significantly with time and latitude. On the other hand, a clear North-South asymmetry is observed both in their intensity and period distribution.