Because syndromic surveillance systems use pre-diagnostic data for early detection of disease outbreaks, it is important to know how the earliest signs and symptoms of a disease might appear in these systems. The available medical literature describing the sequence of signs and symptoms of pneumonic plague reveals that, during the earliest stages, patients will most likely present with certain gastrointestinal and minimal, if any, respiratory signs. Without this knowledge, early evidence of pneumonic plague in syndromic surveillance systems may be missed until the respiratory signs become prevalent. Because plague is a zoonotic disease, new syndromic surveillance systems that use animal data from park rangers and veterinarians may provide useful evidence. This paper shows how a review of both human and animal literature can be used to design queries for syndromic surveillance systems.

The aim was to analyse variation in incidence of sporadic Legionnaires' disease in a geographical information system in three time periods (1990–2005) by the application of a grid model and to assess the model's validity by analysing variation according to grid position. Coordinates of the addresses at time of disease of 606 confirmed cases with Legionnaires' disease were obtained. The incidence was calculated in cells of 10×10 km in 25 different grids superimposed on a map of Denmark. A 95% and 99% threshold was applied to identify cells with excess incidence representing potential clusters. Four cells had excess incidence in all three time periods. The analysis in 25 different grid positions indicated a low risk of overlooking cells with excess incidence in a random grid. The coefficient of variation ranged from 0·08 to 0·11 independent of the threshold. By application of a random grid model we demonstrated that it was possible to detect small areas with excess incidence that were not detected in the present surveillance system.

Previous outbreaks of Pontiac fever have invariably been associated with water droplet spread of Legionella spp. In January 2007 three workers from a horticultural nursery were admitted to hospital with non-pneumonic legionellosis. Investigations showed that a working party of ten people had been exposed to aerosolized potting mix; nine of these workers met the case definition for Pontiac fever. The presence of genetically indistinguishable Legionella longbeachae serogroup 2 was demonstrated in clinical specimens from two hospitalized workers and in the potting mix to which they had been exposed. A further seven cases were diagnosed by serological tests. This is the first documented outbreak of Pontiac fever from L. longbeachae serogroup 2 confirmed from inhalation of potting mix. Pontiac fever is likely to be under-diagnosed. We advocate the introduction of an industry standard that ensures the use of face masks when handling potting mix and attaching masks and warning labels to potting mix bags sold to the public.

Human cases of Q fever appear to be common in Northern Ireland compared to the rest of the British Isles. The purpose of this study was to describe the seroepidemiology of Coxiella burnetii infection in cattle in Northern Ireland in terms of seroprevalence and determinants of infection. A total of 5182 animals (from a stratified systematic random sample of 273 herds) were tested with a commercial C. burnetii phase 2 IgG ELISA. A total of 6·2% of animals and 48·4% of herds tested positively. Results from a multilevel logistic regression model indicated that the odds of cattle being infected with Q fever increased with age, Friesian breed, being from large herds and from dairy herds. Large dairy herd animal prevalence was 12·5% compared to 2·1% for small beef herds. Preliminary seroprevalence in sheep (12·3%), goats (9·3%), pigs (0%) rats (9·7%) and mice (3·2%) using indirect immunofluorescence is reported.

Pinworm infection remains prevalent in children in many parts of the world. This study was designed to determine the prevalence of this infection in schoolchildren in Taiwan after the termination of the 15-year population-based control project in 2001. Our results showed that 2·4% of 118 190 children in 385 primary schools were found to have enterobiasis by two-consecutive-day adhesive cellophane perianal swabs. The prevalences were significantly different in the 25 counties/cities surveyed (0·6–6·6%). A significantly higher prevalence was found in boys (2·6%) than in girls (2·2%) and the prevalence decreased by grade from 3·8% in grade 1 to 1·0% in grade 6. In the primary schools, 9·1% had positive rates ⩾10%. In addition, pinworm infection was found to be significantly associated with the socioeconomic status, personal hygiene and sanitary conditions of the children. The results indicate that the overall prevalence of enterobiasis remains at a low level after the control programme was transferred to the local governments.

Melioidosis, an infectious disease caused by the Gram-negative bacterium Burkholderia pseudomallei, is now recognized as an important public health problem in Southeast Asia and tropical northern Australia. Although B. pseudomallei has been detected in various water and soil samples in southeast China, the enviromental distribution of B. pseudomallei in China is unclear. In the winter months of 2007, 154 and 130 soil and water samples, respectively, were collected from several locations in Guangxi, China. The samples were screened for B. pseudomallei by bacterial culture and identification and confirmed by PCR for species-specific 16S rDNA and flagellin genes. B. pseudomallei was detected in 8·4% of the soil samples but in none of the water samples. All positive samples were confined to a single low-lying region from rice paddy fields. Counts of B. pseudomallei ranged from 23 to 521 c.f.u./g soil. This is the first geographical distribution survey of B. pseudomallei in soil in Guangxi, China, and the data are of importance for further evaluating the impact of this pathogen on melioidosis in this region.

Hepatitis B virus (HBV) genotype D and hepatitis B e antigen (HBeAg) negative chronic hepatitis are the most prevalent in Mediterranean countries. No data have ever been published on their prevalence in Syria, a country of intermediate endemicity for HBV. The aims of the current study were to determine the HBV genotype distribution in Syria, the prevalence of HBeAg-positive and HBeAg-negative chronic hepatitis and to analyse the clinical characteristics of each group. A total of 220 patients were included. Ninety-seven percent of the patients were of genotype D, and 72% were HBeAg negative. The HBeAg-negative patients were older, had a lower viral load, had more cirrhosis and the mode of contamination was known less than for HBeAg-positive patients. These findings have major implications in understanding the natural history of the infection and are of great relevance in the choice of therapy.

In England, there is no surveillance system for vaccines offered to healthcare workers apart from that in place annually for the seasonal influenza vaccine. To inform the feasibility of a general vaccine uptake surveillance system and to understand which policies are currently in place, we conducted a survey in the 162 National Health Service Foundation and Acute Hospital trusts in England, by submitting a questionnaire to their occupational health departments on immunization policies and methods of storing vaccine uptake data. In total, 104 hospital trusts (64·2%) responded. All responders offer hepatitis B, tuberculosis, measles-mumps-rubella, and influenza vaccines to healthcare workers; 0·9% reported not offering varicella and 13·5% not offering tetanus-diphtheria-polio; 66·4% record staff eligible for immunizations and 68·2% record staff they have immunized. Our study suggests that setting up a surveillance system to monitor vaccine uptake in healthcare workers is possible but would be challenging, given the variation in current systems.

Streptococcus pyogenes group A (GAS) is a primary human pathogen. We performed genetic emm sequence and serological T-antigen typing of 819 mostly invasive GAS isolates recovered in Israel during 1996–2005. Of the 72 emm types found, the six most prevalent types (1, 81, 89, 14, 28, 5) comprised 30·2% of all isolates, and emm-type changes were observed over the years. The predicted coverage of the 26-valent S. pyogenes vaccine formulated for usage in the USA was predicted to be only ~60%. On the basis of different emm–T antigen type associations, some Israeli strains are probably different clonal types than those found in USA. About 2% of GAS had emm types that were originally associated with S. dysgalactiae subsp. equisimilis emm genes. Therefore, routine emm typing allows meaningful GAS strain surveillance, and provides data relevant to better vaccine coverage.

Invasive pneumococcal disease (IPD) is of concern in Japan, where the heptavalent pneumococcal conjugate vaccine (PCV7) is unavailable. We determined serotypes, genotypes indicating β-lactam resistance, and antibiotic susceptibilities of 496 isolates from normally sterile sites in patients (193 children, 303 adults) from 186 institutions between August 2006 and July 2007. Disease presentations included sepsis (46·2%), pneumonia (31·5%), and meningitis (17·5%). Mortality was 1·4% in children and 22·1% in adults, many of whom had underlying diseases. In children, serotype 6B (22·5%) was followed by 19F (14·1%), and 14 (13·1%); potential coverages of PCV7 and PCV13 were 75·4% and 93·7%, respectively. In adults, serotype 12F (14·3%) was followed by 3 (11·3%), and 6B (10·3%); 23-valent polysaccharide vaccine (PPV23) coverage was 85·4%. Most serotype 12F strains were gPISP, with pbp2b gene alteration; carbapenem had an excellent MIC90. PCV7 is recommended for children and PPV23 for adults to increase prevention against IPD.

Antimicrobial resistance (AMR) in Neisseria gonorrhoeae compromises patient treatment and disease control. Epidemiologically based surveillance of AMR in gonococci is needed to optimize standard treatment regimens. Validation of AMR surveillance data depends on external quality assurance schemes (EQAS). AMR surveillance data quality in India during 2001–2007 was assessed by participants testing panels of reference strains and repeated re-challenge with identical controls, accompanied by educative feedback. Overall, correct results were obtained for 944 (82%) of 1030 tests performed for five ‘core’ antibiotics. Aggregated error rates decreased from 33% (123 tests) in 2001 to 4·4% (180 tests) in 2007 with improvements in individual laboratory performance. Cephalosporin test results produced high error rates without improvement. Reference centre and network laboratory collaboration produced marked improvements in test performance through annual EQAS integrating proficiency testing and participant education. More frequent EQAS cycles would assist this process. These experiences may be applicable in similar settings elsewhere.

This research aimed to describe the genetic and phenotypic diversity of 74 Spanish Brachyspira hyodysenteriae field isolates, to establish epidemiological relationships between the isolates and to confirm the presence of tiamulin-resistant isolates in Spain. For these purposes, we performed biochemical tests in combination with diagnostic PCR analysis for the identification of Brachyspira spp. and for detection of the smpA/smpB gene. We also used antimicrobial susceptibility tests, random amplified polymorphic DNA (RAPD) and a new pulsed-field gel electrophoresis (PFGE) protocol. The combination of RAPD and PFGE allowed the study of epidemiological relationships. Both indole-negative and tiamulin-resistant isolates of B. hyodysenteriae are reported in Spain for the first time. The genetic analyses indicated a relationship between these Spanish isolates and indole-negative isolates previously obtained from Germany and Belgium.

In South Africa, for the years 2003–2007, the Enteric Diseases Reference Unit received 510 human isolates of Salmonella Typhi, of which 27 were nalidixic acid-resistant [minimum inhibitory concentrations (MICs) 128–512 μg/ml] with reduced susceptibility to ciprofloxacin (MICs 0·125–0·5 μg/ml). Pulsed-field gel electrophoresis analysis of 19 available isolates differentiated them into five DNA pattern types; multiple-locus variable-number tandem repeat analysis differentiated the isolates into 10 types. This level of genetic diversity suggested that resistant strains usually emerged independently of one another. A 16- to 32-fold decrease in nalidixic acid MIC and a 2- to 8-fold decrease in ciprofloxacin MIC, was observed in the presence of an efflux pump inhibitor. All isolates were negative by PCR screening for qnr genes. Seven resistant isolates were further analysed for mutations in the quinolone resistance-determining region of gyrA, gyrB, parC and parE. No amino-acid mutations were identified in GyrB and ParE; all isolates showed amino-acid mutations in both GyrA and ParC. We conclude that amino-acid mutations in GyrA and ParC in combination with active efflux of antibiotic out of the bacterial cell are the probable mechanisms conferring quinolone resistance.

Puumala virus (PUUV) is a zoonotic rodent-borne hantavirus in continental Europe. Its reservoir host, the bank vole (Myodes glareolus), is ubiquitous in Great Britain (GB); however, there has been no reported incidence of virus in either animals or humans. In northwest Europe, increases in bank vole numbers, stimulated by increases in production of beech/oak crops (mast), are associated with outbreaks of nephropathia epidemica (NE) in humans. These so-called ‘mast years’ are determined by sequential climatic events. This paper investigates the contribution of a number of ecological and environmental factors driving outbreaks of PUUV in northwest Europe and assesses whether such factors might also permit enzootic PUUV circulation in GB. Analysis of GB climate data, using regression models, confirms that mast years in GB are stimulated, and can be predicted, by the same climatic events as mast years in PUUV-endemic regions of northwest Europe. A number of other possible non-climatic constraints on enzootic cycles are discussed.

Using time-series analysis, we investigated the monthly cholera incidence in Dhaka, Bangladesh during an 18-year period for its relationship to the sea surface temperature (SST) linked to El Niño, and to the sunspot number. Dominant periodic modes identified for cholera incidence were 11·0, 4·8, 3·5, 2·9, 1·6, 1·0 and 0·5 years. The majority of these modes, e.g. the 11·0-, 4·8-, 3·5-, 1·6- and 1·0-year modes, were essentially consistent with those obtained for the SST data (dominant modes: 5·1, 3·7, 2·5, 2·1, 1·5, 1·0 years) and the sunspot number data (dominant modes: 22·1, 11·1, 7·3, 4·8, 3·1 years). We confirmed that the variations of cholera incidence were synchronous with SSTs, and were inversely correlated to the sunspot numbers. These results suggest that the cholera incidence in Bangladesh may have been influenced by the occurrence of El Niño and also by the periodic change of solar activity.

Understanding age-specific differences in infection rates can be important in predicting the magnitude of and mortality in outbreaks and targeting age groups for vaccination programmes. Standard methods to estimate age-specific rates assume that the age-specific force of infection is constant in time. However, this assumption may easily be violated in the face of a highly variable outbreak history, as recently observed for acute immunizing infections like measles, in strongly seasonal settings. Here we investigate the biases that result from ignoring such fluctuations in incidence and present a correction based on the epidemic history. We apply the method to data from a measles outbreak in Niamey, Niger and show that, despite a bimodal age distribution of cases, the estimated age-specific force of infection is unimodal and concentrated in young children (<5 years) consistent with previous analyses of age-specific rates in the region.

Estimates of the burden of foodborne disease rely on attributing a proportion of syndromic gastroenteritis to foodborne transmission. Persons with syndromic diarrhoea/vomiting can also present with concurrent respiratory symptoms that could be due to respiratory infections, gastrointestinal infections, or both. This distinction is important when estimating the foodborne disease burden but has rarely been considered. Using data from population surveys from Australia, Canada and the USA we describe the effect of excluding persons with respiratory and associated symptoms from the case definition of gastroenteritis. Excluding persons first with respiratory symptoms, or second with respiratory symptoms plus fever and headache, resulted in a decrease in the weighted estimates of acute gastroenteritis of about 10–50% depending on the exclusion criteria. This has the potential to have a very significant impact on estimates of the burden of foodborne infections using syndromic case definitions of acute gastroenteritis.

A series of simulation experiments was conducted to determine how estimates of the latent and infectious periods, number of neighbours (contacts) and population size impact on the predicted magnitude and distribution of foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) outbreaks in white-tailed deer in southern Texas. Outbreaks were simulated using a previously developed and applied susceptible–latent–infected–recovered geographic automata model. There were substantial differences in the estimated predicted number of deer and locations infected, based on the model parameters used (3779–119 879 deer infected and 227–6526 locations affected). There were also substantial differences in the spatial risk of infection based on the model parameters used. The predicted spread of FMD was found to be most sensitive to the assumed latent period and the assumed number of contacts. How these parameters are estimated is likely to be critical in studies on the impact of FMD spread in situations in which wildlife reservoirs might potentially exist.

Crimean Congo haemorrhagic fever (CCHF) has been an emerging tick-borne infection in some parts of Turkey since 2002, with a number of fatalities. Many of the initial non-specific symptoms of CCHF can mimic other common infections. Additionally, the seasonal pattern of the epidemic, and the waning attention of healthcare workers to the yearly index cases caused some delays in appropriate patient care and treatment. Between March 2004 and August 2008, 140 confirmed adult cases were evaluated retrospectively for initial diagnosis and treatment delays. This study clearly demonstrated that there are particular delays (4·8 days) in the referral system to initiate effective antiviral treatment in the tertiary-care centre which significantly affect fatality rates (P>0·05). A large number of patients (n=95, 68%) received an initial misdiagnosis of various infections other than CCHF. In conclusion, continuous medical education regarding CCHF in the epidemic area is essential in order to achieve a better survival rate from this deadly infection.