During the early stage of an epidemic, timely and reliable estimation of the severity of infections are important for predicting the impact that the influenza viruses will have in the population. We obtained age-specific deaths and hospitalizations for patients with laboratory-confirmed H1N1pdm09 infections from June 2009 to December 2009 in Hong Kong. We retrospectively obtained the real-time estimates of the hospitalization fatality risk (HFR), using crude estimation or allowing for right-censoring for final status in some patients. Models accounting for right-censoring performed better than models without adjustments. The risk of deaths in hospitalized patients with confirmed H1N1pdm09 increased with age. Reliable estimates of the HFR could be obtained before the peak of the first wave of H1N1pdm09 in young and middle-aged adults but after the peak in the elderly. In the next influenza pandemic, timely estimation of the HFR will contribute to risk assessment and disease control.

Three epidemic waves of human influenza A(H7N9) were documented in several different provinces in China between 2013 and 2015. With limited understanding of the potential for human-to-human transmission, it was difficult to implement control measures efficiently or to inform the public adequately about the application of interventions. In this study, the human-to-human transmission rate for the epidemics that occurred between 2013 and 2015 in Zhejiang Province, China, was analysed. The reproduction number (R), a key indicator of transmission intensity, was estimated by fitting the number of infections from poultry to humans and from humans to humans into a mathematical model. The posterior mean R for human-to-human transmission was estimated to be 0·27, with a 95% credible interval of 0·14–0·44 for the first wave, whereas the posterior mean Rs decreased to 0·15 in the second and third waves. Overall, these estimates indicate that a human H7N9 pandemic is unlikely to occur in Zhejiang. The reductions in the viral transmissibility and the number of poultry-transmitted infections after the first epidemic may be attributable to the various intervention measures taken, including changes in the extent of closures of live poultry markets.

Neuraminidase inhibitor (NI) dispensing has emerged as a possible automated data source for influenza surveillance. We aimed to evaluate its timeliness, correlation, and predictive accuracy in relation to influenza activity in Quebec, Canada, 2010–2013. Our secondary objective was to use the same metrics to compare NI dispensing to visits for influenza-like illness (ILI) in emergency departments (EDs). Provincial weekly counts of positive influenza laboratory tests were used as a reference measure for the level of influenza circulation. We applied ARIMA models to account for serial correlation. We computed cross-correlations to measure the strengths of association and lead-lag relationships between NI dispensing, ILI ED visits, and our reference indicator. Finally, using an ARIMA model, we evaluated the ability of NI dispensing and ILI ED visits to predict laboratory-confirmed influenza. NI dispensing was significantly correlated (R = 0·68) with influenza activity with no lag. The maximal correlation of ILI ED visits was not as strong (R = 0·50). Both NI dispensing and ILI ED visits were significant predictors of laboratory-confirmed influenza in a multivariable model; predictive potential was greatest when NI counts were lagged to precede laboratory surveillance by 2 weeks. We conclude that NI dispensing data provides timely and valuable information for influenza surveillance.

Influenza vaccination is the most practical means available for preventing influenza virus infection and is widely used in many countries. Because vaccine components and circulating strains frequently change, it is important to continually monitor vaccine effectiveness (VE). The test-negative design is frequently used to estimate VE. In this design, patients meeting the same clinical case definition are recruited and tested for influenza; those who test positive are the cases and those who test negative form the comparison group. When determining VE in these studies, the typical approach has been to use logistic regression, adjusting for potential confounders. Because vaccine coverage and influenza incidence change throughout the season, time is included among these confounders. While most studies use unconditional logistic regression, adjusting for time, an alternative approach is to use conditional logistic regression, matching on time. Here, we used simulation data to examine the potential for both regression approaches to permit accurate and robust estimates of VE. In situations where vaccine coverage changed during the influenza season, the conditional model and unconditional models adjusting for categorical week and using a spline function for week provided more accurate estimates. We illustrated the two approaches on data from a test-negative study of influenza VE against hospitalization in children in Hong Kong which resulted in the conditional logistic regression model providing the best fit to the data.

Linked administrative population data were used to estimate the burden of childhood respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) hospitalization in an Australian cohort aged <5 years. RSV-coded hospitalizations data were extracted for all children aged <5 years born in New South Wales (NSW), Australia between 2001 and 2010. Incidence was calculated as the total number of new episodes of RSV hospitalization divided by the child-years at risk. Mean cost per episode of RSV hospitalization was estimated using public hospital cost weights. The cohort comprised of 870 314 children. The population-based incidence/1000 child-years of RSV hospitalization for children aged <5 years was 4·9 with a rate of 25·6 in children aged <3 months. The incidence of RSV hospitalization (per 1000 child-years) was 11·0 for Indigenous children, 81·5 for children with bronchopulmonary dysplasia (BPD), 10·2 for preterm children with gestational age (GA) 32–36 weeks, 27·0 for children with GA 28–31 weeks, 39·0 for children with GA <28 weeks and 6·7 for term children with low birthweight. RSV hospitalization was associated with an average annual cost of more than AUD 9 million in NSW. RSV was associated with a substantial burden of childhood hospitalization specifically in children aged <3 months and in Indigenous children and children born preterm or with BPD.

Children encounter repeated respiratory tract infections during their early life. We conducted a prospective clinical and serological follow-up study to estimate the respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) primary infection and reinfection rates in early childhood. Sera were collected from 291 healthy children at the ages of 13, 24 and 36 months and antibody levels against RSV antigens were determined by enzyme immunoassay. The RT–PCR method was also used for identifying the possible presence of RSV in symptomatic patients. At ages 1, 2 and 3 years, 37%, 68% and 86%, respectively, of studied children were seropositive for RSV. In children seropositive at age 1 year, RSV reinfection rate was at least 37%. Only one of reinfected children showed evidence for a third reinfection by age 3 years. Of children who turned RSV seropositive between ages 1 and 2 years, the reinfection rate was 32% during the third year of life. The mean antibody levels at primary infection were very similar in all age groups. The average decrease of antibody levels was 25–30% within a year. In 66 cases RSV infection was identified by RT–PCR. RSV infection rate in early childhood is 86% and reinfection rate is around 35%. This prospective serological follow-up study also provided evidence for the presence of RSV infections in children that did not show clinical signs warranting RSV RNA detection.

Various variables that might influence the rapid and sustained virological response to recombinant PEG-IFN-α-2a were explored in Iraqi HCV-infected patients with haemoglobinopathy. Forty-three patients were evaluated for the relationship between rapid virological response (RVR), IL-28B polymorphism, viral load, liver enzyme levels, blood group, ultrasound findings, or HCV genotype and the sustained virological response (SVR) achievement. The overall RVR was 55·81% while the overall SVR was 53·49%. SVR in patients that achieved RVR was 82·61% (P = 0·0004). A significant association was found between initial alanine transaminase levels and viral load with SVR achievement (P = 0·025) and (P = 0·004), respectively. Thirty-two (74%) out of 43 of our samples were host genotyped at the IL-28B locus as CC, a significant association was found between CC group and SVR achievement (P = 0·04). Of our samples, 23/43 (53%) were typed as HCV genotype 4, 10/43 (23%) as genotype 1, 9/43 (20·9%) as genotype 3 and 1/43 (2·3%) as genotype 2. A significant association was found between genotype 3 and SVR achievement (P = 0·006). Multivariate analysis showed that only RVR achievement independently associated with SVR in the Iraqi population (P = 0·00). These results can be used to classify the patients requiring the more expensive new direct-acting antiviral drugs.

We evaluated the association between urinary arsenic and the seroprevalence of total hepatitis A antibodies (total anti-HAV: IgG and IgM) in 11 092 participants aged ⩾6 years using information collected in the US National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (2003–2012). Multivariate logistic regression models evaluated associations between total anti-HAV and total urinary arsenic defined as the sum of arsenite, arsenate, monomethylarsonate and dimethylarsinate (TUA1). Effect modification by self-reported HAV immunization status was evaluated. Total anti-HAV seroprevalence was 35·1% [95% confidence interval (CI) 33·3–36·9]. Seropositive status was associated with higher arsenic levels and this association was modified by immunization status (P = 0·03). For participants that received ⩾2 vaccine doses or did not know if they had received any doses, a positive dose-response association was observed between increasing TUA1 and odds of total anti-HAV [odds ratio (OR) 1·42, 95% CI 1·11–1·81; and OR 1·75, 95% CI 1·22–2·52], respectively. A positive but not statistically significant association was observed in those who received <2 doses (OR 1·46, 95% CI 0·83–2·59) or no dose (OR 1·12, 95% CI 0·98–1·30). Our analysis indicates that prevalent arsenic exposure was associated with positive total anti-HAV seroprevalence. Further studies are needed to determine if arsenic increases the risk for incident hepatitis A infection or HAV seroconversion.

The aim of this study was to review the current evidence regarding the persistence of Ebola virus (EBOV) in various body fluids during convalescence and discuss its implication on disease transmission and control. We conducted a systematic review and searched articles from Medline and EMBASE using key words. We included studies that examined the persistence of EBOV in various body fluids during the convalescent phase. Twelve studies examined the persistence of EBOV in body fluids, with around 800 specimens tested in total. Available evidence suggests that EBOV can persist in some body fluids after clinical recovery and clearance of virus from the blood. EBOV has been isolated from semen, aqueous humor, urine and breast milk 82, 63, 26 and 15 days after onset of illness, respectively. Viral RNA has been detectable in semen (day 272), aqueous humor (day 63), sweat (day 40), urine (day 30), vaginal secretions (day 33), conjunctival fluid (day 22), faeces (day 19) and breast milk (day 17). Given high case fatality and uncertainties around the transmission characteristics, patients should be considered potentially infectious for a period of time after immediate clinical recovery. Patients and their immediate contacts should be informed about these risks. Convalescent patients may need to abstain from sex for at least 9 months or should use condoms until their semen tests are negative. Breastfeeding should be avoided during the convalescent phase. There is a need for more research on persistence, and a uniform approach to infection control guidelines in convalescence.

This study aimed to compare the virology and epidemiology of epidemic keratoconjunctivitis (EKC), pharyngoconjunctival fever (PCF) and acute haemorrhagic conjunctivitis (AHC) outbreaks worldwide caused by the human adenovirus (HAdV) from 1953 to 2013. Eighty-three hexon sequences from 76 conjunctivitis outbreaks were analysed and subtyped using Mega 5.05, Clustal X and SimPlot software. Epidemiology was performed for the area, age and seasonal distribution. A phylogenetic analysis indicated that all the isolates could be divided into three subgenetic lineages, without a common ancestor. The major causes of the outbreaks were Ad8, Ad7 and Ad2 co-infection with enterovirus 70 (EV70) in EKC, PCF and AHC, respectively. The epidemiological findings suggested that EKC and AHC were circulating predominantly in Asia during the early winter and spring, whereas PCF was circulating mainly in China, Australia and the United States during the summer. This study suggests that EKC, AHC and PCF outbreaks have different circulating patterns throughout the world and are caused by different adenovirus serotypes. A global surveillance system should be established to monitor conjunctivitis outbreaks in the future.

Herpes simplex virus (HSV) is one of the most commonly identified infectious aetiologies of encephalitis in North America and Europe. The epidemiology of encephalitis beyond these regions, however, is poorly defined. During 2009–2012 we enrolled 313 patients in a multicentre prospective study of encephalitis in Peru, 45 (14·4%) of whom had confirmed HSV infection. Of 38 patients with known HSV type, 84% had HSV-1 and 16% had HSV-2. Patients with HSV infection were significantly more likely to present in the summer months (44·4% vs. 20·0%, P = 0·003) and have nausea (60·0% vs. 39·8%, P = 0·01) and rash (15·6% vs. 5·3%, P = 0·01) compared to patients without HSV infection. These findings highlight differences in the epidemiology and clinical presentation of HSV encephalitis outside of the Northern Hemisphere that warrant further investigation. Furthermore, there is an urgent need for improved HSV diagnostic capacity and availability of intravenous acyclovir in Peru.

Peripheral blood viral load is an important indicator of viral production and clearance. Previous studies have suggested that viral load might predict the rate of decrease in CD4+ cell count and progression to AIDS and death. Here, we conducted a retrospective analysis of the trends in HIV-1 viral load in southeast China. Among inpatients newly diagnosed with HIV infection, we found that viral load has increased over the past decade from 4·20 log10 copies/ml in 2002 to 6·61 log10 copies/ml in 2014, with a mean increase of 0·19 log10 copies/ml each year. However, the CD4+ cell count was stable and insensitive to changes in viral load. Thus, increasing viral load appears to be an emerging trend in newly diagnosed HIV-infected inpatients.

We investigated how different models of HIV transmission, and assumptions regarding the distribution of unprotected sex and syringe-sharing events (‘risk acts’), affect quantitative understanding of HIV transmission process in people who inject drugs (PWID). The individual-based model simulated HIV transmission in a dynamic sexual and injecting network representing New York City. We constructed four HIV transmission models: model 1, constant probabilities; model 2, random number of sexual and parenteral acts; model 3, viral load individual assigned; and model 4, two groups of partnerships (low and high risk). Overall, models with less heterogeneity were more sensitive to changes in numbers risk acts, producing HIV incidence up to four times higher than that empirically observed. Although all models overestimated HIV incidence, micro-simulations with greater heterogeneity in the HIV transmission modelling process produced more robust results and better reproduced empirical epidemic dynamics.

Cytomegalovirus (CMV) is the leading cause of congenital infection and non-genetic sensorineural hearing loss in children. There are no recent data on the incidence of CMV infection during pregnancy in Canada. This present study was undertaken to determine the seroprevalence of CMV IgG antibodies and the rate of seroconversion in a cohort of pregnant women in the province of Québec, Canada. We used serum samples and questionnaire data collected as part of the 3D Pregnancy and Birth Cohort Study (2010–2013) conducted in Québec, Canada. CMV IgG antibodies were determined in serum samples collected at the first and third trimesters. Associations between independent variables and seroprevalence were assessed using logistic regression, and associations with seroconversions, by Poisson regression. Of 1938 pregnant women tested, 40·4% were seropositive for CMV at baseline. Previous CMV infection was associated with: working as a daycare educator, lower education, lower income, having had children, first language other than French or English, and being born outside Canada or the United States. Of the 1122 initially seronegative women, 24 (2·1%) seroconverted between their first and third trimesters. The seroconversion rate was 1·4 [95% confidence interval (CI) 0·9–2·1]/10 000 person-days at risk or 3·9 (95% CI 2·5–5·9)/100 pregnancies (assuming a 280-day gestation). The high proportion of pregnant women susceptible to CMV infection (nearly 60%) and the subsequent rate of seroconversion are of concern.

In July 2013, a Belgian couple were admitted to hospital because of pneumonia. Medical history revealed contact with birds. Eleven days earlier, they had purchased a lovebird in a pet shop in The Netherlands. The bird became ill, with respiratory symptoms. The couple's daughter who accompanied them to the pet shop, reported similar symptoms, but was travelling abroad. On the suspicion of psittacosis, pharyngeal swabs from the couple were taken and sent to the Belgian reference laboratory for psittacosis. Culture and nested polymerase chain reaction (PCR) tests were positive for the presence of Chlamydia psittaci, and ompA genotyping indicated genotype A in both patients. The patients were treated with doxycycline and the daughter started quinolone therapy; all three recovered promptly. Psittacosis is a notifiable disease in Belgium and therefore local healthcare authorities were informed. They contacted their Dutch colleagues, who visited the pet shop. Seven pooled faecal samples were taken and analysed using PCR by the Dutch national reference laboratory for notifiable animal diseases for the presence of Chlamydia psittaci. Four (57%) samples tested positive, genotyping revealed genotype A. Enquiring about exposure to pet birds is essential when patients present with pneumonia. Reporting to health authorities, even across borders, is warranted to prevent further spread.

Accurate detection of infection with Mycobacterium bovis in live badgers would enable targeted tuberculosis control. Practical challenges in sampling wild badger populations mean that diagnosis of infection at the group (rather than the individual) level is attractive. We modelled data spanning 7 years containing over 2000 sampling events from a population of wild badgers in southwest England to quantify the ability to correctly identify the infection status of badgers at the group level. We explored the effects of variations in: (1) trapping efficiency; (2) prevalence of M. bovis; (3) using three diagnostic tests singly and in combination with one another; and (4) the number of badgers required to test positive in order to classify groups as infected. No single test was able to reliably identify infected badger groups if <90% of the animals were sampled (given an infection prevalence of 20% and group size of 15 badgers). However, the parallel use of two tests enabled an infected group to be correctly identified when only 50% of the animals were tested and a threshold of two positive badgers was used. Levels of trapping efficiency observed in previous field studies appear to be sufficient to usefully employ a combination of two existing diagnostic tests, or others of similar or greater accuracy, to identify infected badger groups without the need to capture all individuals. To improve on this, we suggest that any new diagnostic test for badgers would ideally need to be >80% sensitive, at least 94% specific, and able to be performed rapidly in the field.

Among the most prevalent Mycobacterium tuberculosis (Mtb) strains worldwide is the Beijing genotype, which has caused large outbreaks of tuberculosis (TB). Characteristics facilitating the dissemination of Beijing family strains remain unknown, but they are presumed to have been acquired through evolution of the lineage. To explore the genetic diversity of the Beijing family Mtb and explore the discriminatory ability of mycobacterial interspersed repetitive units-variable number of tandem repeats (MIRU-VNTR) loci in several regions of East Asia, a cross-sectional study was conducted with a total of 163 Beijing strains collected from registered TB patients between 1 June 2009 and 31 November 2010 in Funing County, China. The isolated strains were analysed by 15-MIRU-VNTR loci typing and compared with published MIRU-VNTR profiles of Beijing strains. Synonymous single nucleotide polymorphisms at 10 chromosomal positions were also analysed. The combination of SNP and MIRU-VNTR typing may be used to assess Mtb genotypes in areas dominated by Beijing strains. The modern subfamily in Shanghai overlapped with strains from other countries, whereas the ancient subfamily was genetically differentiated across several countries. Modern subfamilies, especially ST10, were prevalent. Qub11b and four other loci (MIRU 26, Mtub21, Qub26, Mtub04) could be used to discriminate Beijing strains.

Nationwide prevalence and risk factors for faecal carriage of Escherichia coli O157 and O26 in cattle were assessed in a 2-year cross-sectional study at four large slaughter plants in New Zealand. Recto-anal mucosal swab samples from a total of 695 young (aged 4–7 days) calves and 895 adult cattle were collected post-slaughter and screened with real-time polymerase chain reaction (PCR) for the presence of E. coli O157 and O26 [Shiga toxin-producing E. coli (STEC) and non-STEC]. Co-infection with either serogroup of E. coli (O157 or O26) was identified as a risk factor in both calves and adult cattle for being tested real-time PCR-positive for E. coli O157 or O26. As confirmed by culture isolation and molecular analysis, the overall prevalence of STEC (STEC O157 and STEC O26 combined) was significantly higher in calves [6·0% (42/695), 95% confidence interval (CI) 4·4–8·1] than in adult cattle [1·8% (16/895), 95% CI 1·1–3·0] (P < 0·001). This study is the first of its kind in New Zealand to assess the relative importance of cattle as a reservoir of STEC O157 and O26 at a national level. Epidemiological data collected will be used in the development of a risk management strategy for STEC in New Zealand.

Vancomycin-resistant enterococci (VRE) infections are a public health threat associated with increased patient mortality and healthcare costs. Antibiotic usage, particularly cephalosporins, has been associated with VRE colonization and VRE bloodstream infections (VRE BSI). We examined the relationship between antimicrobial usage and incident VRE colonization at the individual patient level. Prospective, weekly surveillance was undertaken for incident VRE colonization defined by negative admission but positive surveillance swab in a medical intensive care unit over a 17-month period. Antimicrobial exposure was quantified as days of therapy (DOT)/1000 patient-days. Multiple logistic regression was used to analyse incident VRE colonization and antibiotic DOT, controlling for demographic and clinical covariates. Ninety-six percent (1398/1454) of admissions were swabbed within 24 h of intensive care unit (ICU) arrival and of the 380 patients in the ICU long enough for weekly surveillance, 83 (22%) developed incident VRE colonization. Incident colonization was associated in bivariate analysis with male gender, more previous hospital admissions, longer previous hospital stay, and use of cefepime/ceftazidime, fluconazole, azithromycin, and metronidazole (P < 0·05). After controlling for demographic and clinical covariates, metronidazole was the only antibiotic independently associated with incident VRE colonization (odds ratio 2·0, 95% confidence interval 1·2–3·3, P < 0·009). Our findings suggest that risk of incident VRE colonization differs between individual antibiotic agents and support the possibility that antimicrobial stewardship may impact VRE colonization and infection.

We investigated a nationwide outbreak of Salmonella Coeln in Norway, including 26 cases identified between 20 October 2013 and 4 January 2014. We performed a matched case-control study, environmental investigation and detailed traceback of food purchases to identify the source of the outbreak. In the case-control study, cases were found to be more likely than controls to have consumed a ready-to-eat salad mix (matched odds ratio 20, 95% confidence interval 2·7–∞). By traceback of purchases one brand of ready-to-eat salad was indicated, but all environmental samples were negative for Salmonella. This outbreak underlines that pre-washed and bagged salads carry a risk of infection despite thorough cleaning procedures by the importer. To further reduce the risk of infection by consumption of ready-to-eat salads product quality should be ensured by importers. Outbreaks linked to salads reinforce the importance of implementation of appropriate food safety management systems, including good practices in lettuce production.