During emerging disease outbreaks, public health, emergency management officials and decision-makers increasingly rely on epidemiological models to forecast outbreak progression and determine the best response to health crisis needs. Outbreak response strategies derived from such modelling may include pharmaceutical distribution, immunisation campaigns, social distancing, prophylactic pharmaceuticals, medical care, bed surge, security and other requirements. Infectious disease modelling estimates are unavoidably subject to multiple interpretations, and full understanding of a model's limitations may be lost when provided from the disease modeller to public health practitioner to government policymaker. We review epidemiological models created for diseases which are of greatest concern for public health protection. Such diseases, whether transmitted from person-to-person (Ebola, influenza, smallpox), via direct exposure (anthrax), or food and waterborne exposure (cholera, typhoid) may cause severe illness and death in a large population. We examine disease-specific models to determine best practices characterising infectious disease outbreaks and facilitating emergency response and implementation of public health policy and disease control measures.

Although Giardia, the aetiological agent of giardiasis, is one of the most prevalent intestinal parasitic infections world-wide, for industrialised countries, it is mainly appreciated as an imported disease with the minimal local transmission. However, the current evidence challenges this perception; Giardia has relevance beyond the high prevalence areas. This infection may be asymptomatic or cause gastrointestinal complains and long-term sequelae, including irritable bowel syndrome, chronic fatigue and impaired child growth and cognitive development. Its detection and diagnosis present a challenge to physicians who may not be familiar with this infection. To improve interventions to control this parasitosis, it is necessary to maintain a high index of suspicion and remain vigilant in finding cases at risk for infection. A better understanding of the characteristics of populations importing infections alongside improved methods to reliably classify infections as imported or acquired locally will help to ensure early and accurate diagnosis. The evidence shows that public health problems like giardiasis are global issues that need to be addressed collectively by both high and low prevalence countries.

Aedes aegypti, historically known as yellow fever (YF) mosquito, transmits a great number of other viruses such as Dengue, West Nile, Chikungunya, Zika, Mayaro and perhaps Oropouche, among others. Well established in Africa and Asia, Aedes mosquitoes are now increasingly invading large parts of the American continent, and hence the risk of urban YF resurgence in the American cities should because of great concern to public health authorities. Although no new urban cycle of YF was reported in the Americas since the end of an Aedes eradication programme in the late 1950s, the high number of non-vaccinated individuals that visit endemic areas, that is, South American jungles where the sylvatic cycle of YF is transmitted by canopy mosquitoes, and return to Aedes-infested urban areas, increases the risk of resurgence of the urban cycle of YF. We present a method to estimate the risk of urban YF resurgence in dengue-endemic cities. This method consists in (1) to estimate the number of Aedes mosquitoes that explains a given dengue outbreak in a given region; (2) calculate the force of infection caused by the introduction of one infective individual per unit area in the endemic area under study; (3) using the above estimates, calculate the probability of at least one autochthonous YF case per unit area produced by one single viraemic traveller per unit area arriving from a YF endemic or epidemic sylvatic region at the city studied. We demonstrate that, provided the relative vector competence, here defined as the capacity to being infected and disseminate the virus, of Ae. aegypti is greater than 0.7 (with respect to dengue), one infected traveller can introduce urban YF in a dengue endemic area.

Dengue is the fastest spreading mosquito-transmitted disease in the world. In China, Guangzhou City is believed to be the most important epicenter of dengue outbreaks although the transmission patterns are still poorly understood. We developed an autoregressive integrated moving average model incorporating external regressors to examine the association between the monthly number of locally acquired dengue infections and imported cases, mosquito densities, temperature and precipitation in Guangzhou. In multivariate analysis, imported cases and minimum temperature (both at lag 0) were both associated with the number of locally acquired infections (P < 0.05). This multivariate model performed best, featuring the lowest fitting root mean squared error (RMSE) (0.7520), AIC (393.7854) and test RMSE (0.6445), as well as the best effect in model validation for testing outbreak with a sensitivity of 1.0000, a specificity of 0.7368 and a consistency rate of 0.7917. Our findings suggest that imported cases and minimum temperature are two key determinants of dengue local transmission in Guangzhou. The modelling method can be used to predict dengue transmission in non-endemic countries and to inform dengue prevention and control strategies.

In 2017 Zagreb faced the largest outbreak of haemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome (HFRS) to date. We investigated to describe the extent of the outbreak and identify risk factors for infection. We compared laboratory-confirmed cases of Hantavirus infection in Zagreb residents with the onset of illness after 1 January 2017, with individually matched controls from the same household or neighbourhood. We calculated adjusted matched odds ratios (amOR) using conditional logistic regression. During 2017, 104 cases were reported: 11–81 years old (median 37) and 71% (73) male. Compared with 104 controls, cases were more likely to report visiting Mount Medvednica (amOR 60, 95% CI 6–597), visiting a forest (amOR 46, 95% CI 4.7–450) and observing rodents (amOR 20, 95% CI 2.6–159). Seventy per cent of cases (73/104) had visited Mount Medvednica prior to infection. Among participants who had visited Mount Medvednica, cases were more likely to have drunk water from a spring (amOR 22, 95% CI 1.9–265), observed rodents (amOR 17, 95% CI 2–144), picked flowers (amOR 15, 95% CI 1.2–182) or cycled (amOR 14, 95% CI 1.6–135). Our study indicated that recreational activity around Mount Medvednica was associated with HFRS. We recommend enhanced surveillance of the recreational areas during an outbreak.

The objective of this study was to provide real-world clinical laboratory-based data to supplement Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) reporting of Q fever. We analysed titre results of specimens submitted to a large US clinical laboratory for Coxiella burnetii IgG antibody testing from 2010 through 2016. Presumptive Q fever was defined as acute (phase II IgG titre ⩾1:128, phase I titre <1:1024) or chronic (phase I IgG titre ⩾1:1024), based on the results from a single serum specimen. During 2010–2016, an average of 328 presumptive acute Q fever cases were identified at Quest each year, nearly three times the annual average reported to the CDC (122). During the same period, the number of chronic cases identified annually at Quest Diagnostics (34) was similar to that reported to the CDC (29). These findings suggest that CDC data may underestimate the incidence of acute Q fever.

Rabies was eliminated from Japan in 1957. In the 60 years since elimination, vaccination coverage has declined and dog ownership habits have changed. The purpose of this study was to assess the current risk of rabies spread in Japan. A spatially explicit transmission model was developed at the 1 km2 grid scale for Hokkaido and Ibaraki Prefectures. Parameters associated with dog movement and bite injuries were estimated using historical records from Japan, and were used with previously published epidemiological parameters. The final epidemic size, efficacy of rabies contingency plans and the influence of dog owner responses to incursions were assessed by the model. Average outbreak sizes for dog rabies were 3.1 and 4.7 dogs in Hokkaido and Ibaraki Prefectures, respectively. Average number of bite injury cases were 4.4 and 6.7 persons in Hokkaido and Ibaraki Prefectures, respectively. Discontinuation of mandatory vaccination increased outbreak sizes in these prefectures. Sensitivity analyses showed that higher chance of unintentional release of rabid dogs by their owners (from 0.5 to 0.9 probability) increased outbreak size twofolds. Our model outputs suggested that at present, incursions of rabies into Japan are very unlikely to cause large outbreaks. Critically, the reaction of dog owners to their dogs developing rabies considerably impacts the course of outbreaks. Contingency measures should therefore include sensitisation of dog owners.

Although bats are increasingly recognised as potential reservoir hosts of human zoonotic pathogens, bacteria in bats are still poorly studied. To investigate the DNA faecal prevalence of the bacterium Anaplasma phagocytophilum, we sampled 23 lesser horseshoe bat (Rhinolophus hipposideros) maternity colonies located in buildings (churches, barns) in rural villages of eastern France. A total of 552 faecal samples were collected from 278 individuals. Anaplasma phagocytophilum DNA was detected in the faeces of 63 individuals (22.7%). Such high prevalence might suggest persistent infection in bats and/or a frequent consumption of insect preys carrying bacteria. Faecal DNA prevalence varied highly among colonies but was not related to the colony size. Faecal DNA prevalence was the highest in the Jura Department, where the density of ticks is known to be the highest across the study area. Because the sampled bats live in close proximity to humans, we discuss how concerning the presence of A. phagocytophilum DNA in bat guano is for humans frequenting places of worship that shelter bats. We also advocate future research to understand what a high faecal DNA prevalence in bat guano really implicates in terms of bacteria transmission.

Almost the full range of 16 haemagglutinin (HA) and nine neuraminidase subtypes of avian influenza viruses (AIVs) has been detected either in waterfowl, land-based poultry or in the environment in Bangladesh. AIV infections in Bangladesh affected a wide range of host species of terrestrial poultry. The highly pathogenic avian influenza (AI) H5N1 and low pathogenic AI H9N2 were found to co-circulate and be well entrenched in the poultry population, which has caused serious damage to the poultry industry since 2007. By reviewing the available scientific literature, the overall situation of AIVs in Bangladesh is discussed. All Bangladeshi (BD) H5N1 and H9N2 AIV sequences available at GenBank were downloaded along with other representative sequences to analyse the genetic diversity among the circulating AIVs in Bangladesh and to compare with the global situation. Three different H5N1 clades, 2.2.2, 2.3.2.1 and 2.3.4.2, have been detected in Bangladesh. Only 2.3.2.1a is still present. The BD LP H9N2 viruses mostly belonged to the H9 G1 lineage but segregated into many branches, and some of these shared internal genes with HP viruses of subtypes H7N3 and H5N1. However, these reassortment events might have taken place before introduction to Bangladesh. Currently, H9N2 viruses continue to evolve their HA cleavage, receptor binding and glycosylation sites. Multiple mutations in the HA gene associated with adaptation to mammalian hosts were also observed. Strict biosecurity at farms and gradual phasing out of live-bird markets could be the key measures to better control AIVs, whereas stamping out is not a practicable option in Bangladesh. Vaccination also could be an additional tool, which however, requires careful planning. Continuous monitoring of AIVs through systematic surveillance and genetic characterisation of the viruses remains a hallmark of AI control.

In Sweden, leishmaniasis is an imported disease and its epidemiology and incidence were not known until now. We conducted a retrospective, nationwide, epidemiological study from 1993 to 2016. Probable cases were patients with leishmaniasis diagnoses reported to the Swedish Patient registry, collecting data on admitted patients in Swedish healthcare since 1993 and out-patient visits since 2001. Confirmed cases were those with a laboratory test positive for leishmaniasis during 1993–2016. 299 probable cases and 182 confirmed cases were identified. Annual incidence ranged from 0.023 to 0.35 per 100 000 with a rapid increase in the last 4 years. Of 182 laboratory-verified cases, 96 were diagnosed from 2013 to 2016, and in this group, almost half of the patients were children under 18 years. Patients presented in different healthcare settings in all regions of Sweden. Cutaneous leishmaniasis was the most common clinical manifestation and the majority of infections were acquired in Asia including the Middle East, specifically Syria and Afghanistan. Leishmania tropica was responsible for the majority of cases (42%). A combination of laboratory methods increased the sensitivity of diagnosis among confirmed cases. In 2016, one-tenth of the Swedish population were born in Leishmania-endemic countries and many Swedes travel to these countries for work or vacation. Swedish residents who have spent time in Leishmania-endemic areas, could be at risk of developing disease some time during their lives. Increased awareness and knowledge are needed for correct diagnosis and management of leishmaniasis in Sweden.

Swine can act as asymptomatic carriers of some Leptospira serovars. In this study, 1194 sera from 61 farms located in five different Regions of North-West Italy were collected from slaughtered healthy pigs. Presence of antibody against four Leptospira serovars was evaluated. Overall, 52.5% of analysed farms presented at least one positive animal and 34.4% presented at least one positive swine with titre ⩾1:400. A percentage of 16.6% sera was positive and 5.9% samples presented a positive titre ⩾1:400. Tuscany and Lombardy showed the highest percentage of positive farms (64.3% and 54.6%, respectively) and sera (28.5% and 13.3%, respectively), probably due to environmental conditions and potential risk factors, which promote maintenance and spreading of Leptospira in these areas. The main represented serogroups were Australis (21.3% positive farms, 8.2% positive sera) and Pomona (18.0% positive farms, 8.1% positive sera). In swine, these serogroups are the most detected worldwide; however, our results seem to highlight a reemerging of serogroup Pomona in pigs in investigated areas. A low percentage of sera (0.6%) scored positive to Canicola, leaving an open question on the role of pigs in the epidemiology of this serovar. Higher antibody titres were detected for serogroups Australis and Pomona. Swine leptospirosis is probably underestimated in Italy and could represent a potential risk for animal and human health.

Healthcare-associated infections in veterinary hospitals are commonly attributed to Salmonella enterica, particularly in large animal facilities, and are characteristically associated with widespread environmental contamination. The objective of this study was to investigate factors influencing the likelihood of identifying environmental contamination of a veterinary hospital with S. enterica, while exploring different analytic methods to model complex factors that may influence this ecology. Environmental surveillance samples were collected in a large veterinary hospital as part of a long-term infection control programme. Data were collected retrospectively from the electronic medical records database. Many easily measured variables were complex in nature (i.e., they represented variance that is unmeasured or unidentified as a specific factor) necessitating the use of alternative analytic methods (variable cluster and principal components analyses) to provide perspective regarding the complex data structure and latent factors that may be contributing to this ecology. Subsequently, multivariable logistic regression was performed using generalised estimating equations. Results suggest the probability of detecting Salmonella in the environment increased as demand on personnel increased (e.g., in a busy hospital). Veterinary personnel need to remain vigilant in implementing practices that we believe empirically will mitigate risk for widespread environmental contamination and sustained transmission among patients (i.e., rigorous hygiene for personnel and the environment).

Reducing the risk of human immunodeficiency virus type 1 (HIV-1) transmission is still a public health priority. The development of effective control strategies relies on the quantification of the effects of prophylactic and therapeutic measures in disease incidence. Although several assays can be used to estimate HIV incidence, these estimates are limited by the poor performance of these assays in distinguishing recent from long-standing infections. To address such limitation, we have developed an assay to titrate p24-specific IgG3 antibodies as a marker of recent infection. The assay is based on a recombinant p24 protein capable to detect total IgG antibodies in sera using a liquid micro array and enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay. Subsequently, the assay was optimised to detect and titrate anti-p24 IgG3 responses in a panel of sequential specimens from seroconverters over 24 months. The kinetics of p24-specific IgG3 titres revealed a transient peak in the 4 to 5-month period after seroconversion. It was followed by a sharp decline, allowing infections with less than 6 months to be distinguished from older ones. The developed assay exhibited a mean duration of recent infection of 144 days and a false-recent rate of ca. 14%. Our findings show that HIV-1 p24-specific IgG3 titres can be used as a tool to evaluate HIV incidence in serosurveys and to monitor the efficacy of vaccines and other transmission control strategies.

HIV-positive children are still born in Europe despite low mother-to-child transmission (MTCT) rates. We aimed to clarify the remaining barriers to the prevention of MTCT. By combining the national registers, we identified all women living with HIV delivering at least one child during 1983–2013. Of the 212 women delivering after HIV diagnosis, 46% were diagnosed during the pregnancy. In multivariate analysis, age >30 years (P = 0.001), sexual transmission (P = 0.012), living outside of the metropolitan area (P = 0.001) and Eastern European origin (P = 0.043) were risk factors for missed diagnosis before pregnancy. The proportion of immigrants increased from 18% before 1999 to 75% during 2011–2013 (P < 0.001). They were diagnosed during the pregnancy equally to natives and achieved similar, good treatment results. No MTCT occurred when the mother was diagnosed before the delivery. In addition, 12 women had delivered in 2 years prior their HIV diagnosis, most before implementation of the national screening of pregnant women. Three of these children were infected, the last one in 2000. Our data demonstrate that complete elimination of MTCT is feasible in a high-income, low-prevalence country. This requires ongoing universal screening in early pregnancy and easy access to antiretroviral therapy to all HIV-positive people.

We aimed to quantify the proportion of people receiving care for HIV-infection that are 50 years or older (older HIV patients) in Latin America and the Caribbean between 2000 and 2015 and to estimate the contribution to the growth of this population of people enrolled before (<50yo) and after 50 years old (yo) (⩾50yo). We used a series of repeated, cross-sectional measurements over time in the Caribbean, Central and South American network (CCASAnet) cohort. We estimated the percentage of patients retained in care each year that were older HIV patients. For every calendar year, we divided patients into two groups: those who enrolled before age 50 and after age 50. We used logistic regression models to estimate the change in the proportion of older HIV patients between 2000 and 2015. The percentage of CCASAnet HIV patients over 50 years had a threefold increase (8% to 24%) between 2000 and 2015. Most of the growth of this population can be explained by the increasing proportion of people that enrolled before 50 years and aged in care. These changes will impact needs of care for people living with HIV, due to multiple comorbidities and high risk of disability associated with aging.

Thrombocytopenia is common in patients with invasive bacterial infections. Bacteria can activate platelets, but it is unclear if this affects platelet count. The aim of this study was to examine whether bacteraemia with Staphylococcus aureus, which readily activate human platelets, was more likely to be complicated by thrombocytopenia than bacteraemia with Escherichia coli or Streptococcus pneumoniae with different abilities to activate platelets.

We compared information from 600 adult patients with community-acquired bacteraemia with S. aureus (n = 140), E. coli (n = 420) and S. pneumoniae (n = 40) in Southern Sweden, 2012, linking information on positive blood cultures from microbiological databases and medical charts. The proportion of patients with thrombocytopenia (platelet count <150 × 109/ml) was calculated. Logistic regression was used to estimate the odds ratios (OR) for thrombocytopenia according to bacterial species adjusted for confounders.

The proportion of thrombocytopenia was 29% in S. aureus, 28% in E. coli and 20% in S. pneumonia bacteraemia (P = 0.50), corresponding to an OR of 1.2 (95% confidence interval 0.7–1.9) for thrombocytopenia for S. aureus as compared with E. coli or S. pneumoniae, adjusted for confounders.

This study indicates that platelet activation by bacteria is not a major causative mechanism in sepsis-associated thrombocytopenia.

An unexpected increase in gastroenteritis cases was reported by healthcare workers on the KwaZulu-Natal Coast, South Africa, January 2017 with >600 cases seen over a 3-week period. A case–control study was conducted to identify the source and risk factors associated with the outbreak so as to recommend control and prevention measures. Record review identified cases and controls and structured-telephonic interviews were conducted to obtain exposure history. Stool specimens were collected from 20 cases along with environmental samples and both screened for enteric pathogens. A total of 126 cases and 62 controls were included in the analysis. The odds of developing gastroenteritis were 6.0 times greater among holiday makers than residents (95% confidence interval (CI) 2.0–17.7). Swimming in the lagoon increased the odds of developing gastroenteritis by 3.3 times (95% CI 1.06–10.38). Lagoon water samples tested positive for norovirus (NoV) GI.6, GII.3 and GII.6, astrovirus and rotavirus. Eleven (55%) stool specimens were positive for NoV with eight genotyped as GI.1 (n = 2), GI.5 (n = 3), GI.6 (n = 2), and GI.7 (n = 1). A reported sewage contamination event impacting the lagoon was the likely source with person-to-person spread perpetuating the outbreak. Restriction to swimming in the lagoon was apparently ineffective at preventing the outbreak, possibly due to inadequate enforcement, communication and signage strategies.

We investigated the clinical predictors of methicillin-resistance and their impact on mortality in 371 patients with Staphylococcus aureus bacteraemia identified from two prospective multi-centre studies. Methicillin resistant S. aureus (MRSA) accounted for 42.2% of community-onset and 74.5% of hospital-onset cases. No significant clinical difference was found between patients infected with MRSA vs. methicillin-sensitive S. aureus (MSSA), except that the former were more likely to have had hospital-onset bacteraemia and received antibiotics in the preceding 90 days. After stratifying according to the acquisition site, prior antibiotic use was the only independent predictor of having MRSA in both community-onset and hospital-onset cases. The frequency of inappropriate empirical antibiotic therapy was higher in patients with MRSA than in those with MSSA bacteraemia. However, methicillin resistance was not a predictor of mortality in patients and the clinical characteristics and outcomes of both MRSA and MSSA bacteraemia were similar. This study indicates that there are no definitive clinical or epidemiological risk factors which could distinguish MRSA from MSSA cases with the exception of the previous use of antibiotics for having MRSA bacteraemia, which emphasises the prudent use of glycopeptide treatment of patients at risk for invasive MRSA infections.

Hand-foot-mouth disease (HFMD) is an acute infectious disease caused by serotypes of the enterovirus (EV) family. HFMD reinfection occurs commonly in lack of cross-protection between different EV serotypes. In this study, we investigated the hazards of HFMD reinfection using Cox-proportional hazard model. Retrospective data of 95 209 HFMD cases in Wuhan during 2008–2015 was used. Kaplan–Meier survival methods and Cox-proportional hazard model were used to estimate the hazard probabilities. Of the all HFMD cases, about 2% experienced reinfection (1842/95 209). Kaplan–Meier curves revealed the reinfection risk sharply increased before 40 months from first infection. Higher hazards of reinfection were detected among those who were males, aged 3 years and below, scattered children, belonging to urban areas and first infected with coxsackievirus (CV)-A16 compared with their respective counterparts. Cox-proportional hazard model suggested that gender, age, group, living area and serotypes of first infection had significant effect on reinfection even after adjusting for potential confounding effects of other selected factors considered in the study. These results indicate that boys aged 3 years and below, especially those living in urban areas and first infected with CV-A16 are more prone to reinfection. Interventions should be imposed on these high-risk populations.