In contemporary neuroimaging studies, it has been observed that patients with major depressive disorder (MDD) exhibit aberrant spontaneous neural activity, commonly quantified through the amplitude of low-frequency fluctuations (ALFF). However, the substantial individual heterogeneity among patients poses a challenge to reaching a unified conclusion.

To address this variability, our study adopts a novel framework to parse individualized ALFF abnormalities. We hypothesize that individualized ALFF abnormalities can be portrayed as a unique linear combination of shared differential factors. Our study involved two large multi-center datasets, comprising 2424 patients with MDD and 2183 healthy controls. In patients, individualized ALFF abnormalities were derived through normative modeling and further deconstructed into differential factors using non-negative matrix factorization.

Two positive and two negative factors were identified. These factors were closely linked to clinical characteristics and explained group-level ALFF abnormalities in the two datasets. Moreover, these factors exhibited distinct associations with the distribution of neurotransmitter receptors/transporters, transcriptional profiles of inflammation-related genes, and connectome-informed epicenters, underscoring their neurobiological relevance. Additionally, factor compositions facilitated the identification of four distinct depressive subtypes, each characterized by unique abnormal ALFF patterns and clinical features. Importantly, these findings were successfully replicated in another dataset with different acquisition equipment, protocols, preprocessing strategies, and medication statuses, validating their robustness and generalizability.

This research identifies shared differential factors underlying individual spontaneous neural activity abnormalities in MDD and contributes novel insights into the heterogeneity of spontaneous neural activity abnormalities in MDD.

Transition to psychosis rates within ultra-high risk (UHR) services have been declining. It may be possible to ‘enrich’ UHR cohorts based on the environmental characteristics seen more commonly in first-episode psychosis cohorts. This study aimed to determine whether transition rates varied according to the accumulated exposure to environmental risk factors at the individual (migrant status, asylum seeker/refugee status, indigenous population, cannabis/methamphetamine use), family (family history or parental separation), and neighborhood (population density, social deprivation, and fragmentation) level.

The study included UHR people aged 15–24 who attended the PACE clinic from 2012 to 2016. Cox proportional hazards models (frequentist and Bayesian) were used to assess the association between individual and accumulated factors and transition to psychosis. UHR status and transition was determined using the CAARMS. Benjamini–Hochberg was used to correct for multiple comparisons in frequentist analyses.

Of the 461 young people included, 55.5% were female and median follow-up was 307 days (IQR: 188–557) and 17.6% (n = 81) transitioned to a psychotic disorder. The proportion who transitioned increased incrementally according to the number of individual-level risk factors present (HR = 1.51, 95% CIs 1.19–1.93, p < 0.001, pcorr = 0.01). The number of family- and neighborhood-level exposures did not increase transition risk (p > 0.05). Cannabis use was the only specific risk factor significantly associated with transition (HR = 1.89, 95% CIs 1.22–2.93, pcorr = 0.03, BF = 6.74).

There is a dose–response relationship between exposure to individual-level psychosis-related environmental risk factors and transition risk in UHR patients. If replicated, this could be incorporated into a novel approach to identifying the highest-risk individuals within clinical services.

Late-life depression (LLD) predisposes individuals to cognitive decline, often leading to misdiagnoses as mild cognitive impairment (MCI). Voxel-based morphometry (VBM) can distinguish the profiles of these disorders according to gray matter (GM) volumes. We integrated findings from previous VBM studies for comparative analysis and extended the research into molecular profiles to facilitate inspection and intervention.

We comprehensively searched PubMed and Web of Science for VBM studies that compared LLD and MCI cases with matched healthy controls (HCs) from inception to 31st December 2023. We included 13 studies on LLD (414 LLDs, 350 HCs) and 50 on MCI (1878 MCIs, 2046 HCs). Seed-based d Mapping with Permutation of Subject Images (SDM-PSI) was used for voxel-based meta-analysis to assess GM atrophy, spatially correlated with neuropsychological profiles. We then used multimodal and linear-model analysis to assess the similarities and differences in GM volumetric changing patterns. Partial least squares (PLS) regression and gene enrichment were employed for transcription-neuroimaging associations.

GM volumes in the left hippocampus and right parahippocampal gyrus are more affected in MCI, along with memory impairment. MCI was spatially correlated with a more extensive reduction in the levels of neurotransmitters and a severe downregulation of genes related to cellular potassium ion transport and metal ion transmembrane transporter activity.

Compared to LLD, MCI exhibited more GM atrophy in the hippocampus and parahippocampal gyrus and lower gene expression of ion transmembrane transport. Our findings provided imaging-transcriptomic-genetic integrative profiles for differential diagnosis and precise intervention between LLD and MCI.

Suicide is a major concern among active-duty military personnel. Aggression represents a salient risk factor for suicide among civilians, yet is relatively understudied among military populations. Although several theories posit a relation between aggression and suicide with putative underlying mechanisms of social isolation, access to firearms, and alcohol use, researchers have yet to test these potential mediators. This study uses rich, longitudinal data from the Army Study to Assess Risk and Resilience (STARRS) Pre/Post Deployment Study (PPDS) to examine whether aggression longitudinally predicts suicide attempts and to identify mediators of this association.

Army soldiers (N = 8483) completed assessments 1 month prior to deployment and 1, 2–3, and 9–12 months post-deployment. Participants reported on their physical and verbal aggression, suicide attempts, social network size, firearm ownership, and frequency of alcohol use.

As expected, pre-deployment aggression was significantly associated with suicide attempts at 12-months post-deployment even after controlling for lifetime suicide attempts. Social network size and alcohol use frequency mediated this association, but firearm ownership did not.

Findings further implicate aggression as an important suicide risk factor among military personnel and suggest that social isolation and alcohol use may partially account for this association.

Cannabis use and familial vulnerability to psychosis have been associated with social cognition deficits. This study examined the potential relationship between cannabis use and cognitive biases underlying social cognition and functioning in patients with first episode psychosis (FEP), their siblings, and controls.

We analyzed a sample of 543 participants with FEP, 203 siblings, and 1168 controls from the EU-GEI study using a correlational design. We used logistic regression analyses to examine the influence of clinical group, lifetime cannabis use frequency, and potency of cannabis use on cognitive biases, accounting for demographic and cognitive variables.

FEP patients showed increased odds of facial recognition processing (FRP) deficits (OR = 1.642, CI 1.123–2.402) relative to controls but not of speech illusions (SI) or jumping to conclusions (JTC) bias, with no statistically significant differences relative to siblings. Daily and occasional lifetime cannabis use were associated with decreased odds of SI (OR = 0.605, CI 0.368–0.997 and OR = 0.646, CI 0.457–0.913 respectively) and JTC bias (OR = 0.625, CI 0.422–0.925 and OR = 0.602, CI 0.460–0.787 respectively) compared with lifetime abstinence, but not with FRP deficits, in the whole sample. Within the cannabis user group, low-potency cannabis use was associated with increased odds of SI (OR = 1.829, CI 1.297–2.578, FRP deficits (OR = 1.393, CI 1.031–1.882, and JTC (OR = 1.661, CI 1.271–2.171) relative to high-potency cannabis use, with comparable effects in the three clinical groups.

Our findings suggest increased odds of cognitive biases in FEP patients who have never used cannabis and in low-potency users. Future studies should elucidate this association and its potential implications.

Moderate-to-vigorous physical activity (MVPA) is beneficial for health, and reducing sedentary behavior (SB) is recommended in international guidelines. People with mental illnesses are at higher risk of preventable diseases than the general population, partly attributable to lower MVPA and higher SB. Self-determination theory provides a framework for understanding how motivation regulates behavior. This study aimed to evaluate the contribution of different forms of motivation for physical activity (amotivation, controlled, autonomous) to MVPA and SB in people with mental illnesses.

Cross-sectional self-reported and accelerometer-derived MVPA and SB in people with a range of mental illnesses across four countries were pooled for analysis (Australia, Belgium, England, Uganda). Motivation for physical activity was measured using the Behavioural Regulation in Exercise Questionnaire (BREQ). Regression analyses were used to investigate the association of MVPA and SB with amotivation, controlled, autonomous motivations, controlling for mental health and demographic variables.

Autonomous motivation was associated with 31% higher self-reported MVPA, and amotivation and controlled motivation were associated with 18% and 11% lower self-reported MVPA, respectively (n = 654). In contrast, controlled motivation was positively associated with SB (n = 189). Having physical comorbidities or an alcohol use disorder was associated with lower MVPA (n = 318). Sub-analyses with accelerometer-derived MVPA and SB (n = 139 and n = 145) did not reveal any associations with motivational forms.

Findings with an international sample support the universal relevance of motivation in promoting health-related behavior. Strategies for facilitating autonomous motivation should be utilized by health professionals seeking to support people with mental illnesses to become physically active.

Epidemiological samples provide opportunity to understand the development of mental health trajectories to better understand whether such epidemiological data can help to plan and modify service delivery for youth mental health. Variation between countries is not well understood and thus applying evidence from other countries to national strategies limits support service policy and planning. We therefore examine developmental patterns of youth mental health across different countries using the Growing Up in Ireland (GUI) Cohorts, with comparison to existing UK longitudinal cohort data (Millennium Cohort Study, MCS; Growing up in Scotland, GUS).

Youth mental health problems within each cohort across development (5–17/18 years) were assessed using parent reported Strengths and Difficulties Questionnaire (SDQ) scores. Using latent growth curve analyses, we examined trajectories of emotional, conduct, and hyperactivity problems for boys and girls, separately for each cohort.

Across cohorts, we observed similar developmental patterns for emotional, conduct, and hyperactivity problems. However, the GUI emotional problems in Ireland emerged earlier than in the UK. By adolescence, GUI emotional scores were similar to the UK, suggesting that the differences in emotional problems between the ROI and UK had narrowed by adolescence. Covariates also had different associations with youth mental health trajectories across cohorts.

Utilizing multiple nationally representative cohort longitudinal datasets can help inform clinically meaningful conclusions and potential recommendations on population level multi-tiered service needs and development in the area of child and adolescent mental health support and future provision.

Psychiatric diagnosis is based on categorical diagnostic classification, yet similarities in genetics and clinical features across disorders suggest that these classifications share commonalities in neurobiology, particularly regarding neurotransmitters. Glutamate (Glu) and gamma-aminobutyric acid (GABA), the brain's primary excitatory and inhibitory neurotransmitters, play critical roles in brain function and physiological processes.

We examined the levels of Glu, combined glutamate and glutamine (Glx), and GABA across psychiatric disorders by pooling data from 121 1H-MRS studies and further divided the sample based on Axis I disorders.

Statistically significant differences in GABA levels were found in the combined psychiatric group compared with healthy controls (Hedge's g = −0.112, p = 0.008). Further analyses based on brain regions showed that brain GABA levels significantly differed across Axis I disorders and controls in the parieto-occipital cortex (Hedge's g = 0.277, p = 0.019). Furthermore, GABA levels were reduced in affective disorders in the occipital cortex (Hedge's g = −0.468, p = 0.043). Reductions in Glx levels were found in neurodevelopmental disorders (Hedge's g = −0.287, p = 0.022). Analysis focusing on brain regions suggested that Glx levels decreased in the frontal cortex (Hedge's g = −0.226, p = 0.025), and the reduction of Glu levels in patients with affective disorders in the frontal cortex is marginally significant (Hedge's g = −0.172, p = 0.052). When analyzing the anterior cingulate cortex and prefrontal cortex separately, reductions were only found in GABA levels in the former (Hedge's g = − 0.191, p = 0.009) across all disorders.

Altered glutamatergic and GABAergic metabolites were found across psychiatric disorders, indicating shared dysfunction. We found reduced GABA levels across psychiatric disorders and lower Glu levels in affective disorders. These results highlight the significance of GABA and Glu in psychiatric etiology and partially support rethinking current diagnostic categories.

Psychedelic drugs are a focus of interest in the treatment of depression and other disorders but there are longstanding concerns about possible adverse psychiatric consequences. Because the relevant literature is largely informal, the seriousness of these risks is difficult to evaluate.

Searches were made for case reports of schizophrenia-spectrum, affective or other psychiatric disorders after use of psychedelic drugs. Case reports of flashbacks were also searched for. Individuals with recent use of other drugs (apart from cannabis and alcohol) and/or a previous history of major psychiatric disorder were excluded. Symptoms were tabulated using the Syndrome Check List of the Present State Examination (PSE-9).

We found 17 case reports of schizophrenia spectrum disorder, 17 of affective disorder (depression, mania, or both), 3 cases of anxiety, 1 of depersonalization, and 1 of unclassifiable illness. The states could develop after a single use of the drug (5/17 schizophrenia; 6/17 affective disorder), and duration was highly variable. Recovery was the rule in cases of affective disorder but not in schizophrenia spectrum disorder. Twelve of 29 cases of flashbacks showed psychiatric symptomatology definitely outlasting the attacks, mainly anxiety (5 cases) and depression (8 cases). Flashback symptoms resolved within twelve months in approximately half of the cases but in a few persisted for years.

Reliable descriptions of schizophrenia spectrum disorder and major affective disorder after psychedelic drug use disorder exist but are relatively uncommon. Flashbacks are sometimes but not always associated with psychiatric symptomatology, mainly anxiety or depression.

Genetic vulnerability to mental disorders has been associated with coronavirus disease-19 (COVID-19) outcomes. We explored whether polygenic risk scores (PRSs) for several mental disorders predicted poorer clinical and psychological COVID-19 outcomes in people with pre-existing depression.

Data from three assessments of the Australian Genetics of Depression Study (N = 4405; 52.2 years ± 14.9; 76.2% females) were analyzed. Outcomes included COVID-19 clinical outcomes (severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 [SARS-CoV-2] infection and long COVID, noting the low incidence of COVID-19 cases in Australia at that time) and COVID-19 psychological outcomes (COVID-related stress and COVID-19 burnout). Predictors included PRS for depression, bipolar disorder, schizophrenia, and anxiety. The associations between these PRSs and the outcomes were assessed with adjusted linear/logistic/multinomial regressions. Mediation (N = 4338) and moderation (N = 3326) analyses were performed to explore the potential influence of anxiety symptoms and resilience on the identified associations between the PRSs and COVID-19 psychological outcomes.

None of the selected PRS predicted SARS-CoV-2 infection or long COVID. In contrast, the depression PRS predicted higher levels of COVID-19 burnout. Anxiety symptoms fully mediated the association between the depression PRS and COVID-19 burnout. Resilience did not moderate this association.

A higher genetic risk for depression predicted higher COVID-19 burnout and this association was fully mediated by anxiety symptoms. Interventions targeting anxiety symptoms may be effective in mitigating the psychological effects of a pandemic among people with depression.

The hippocampal formation represents a key region in the pathophysiology of schizophrenia. Aerobic exercise poses a promising add-on treatment to potentially counteract structural impairments of the hippocampal formation and associated symptomatic burden. However, current evidence regarding exercise effects on the hippocampal formation in schizophrenia is largely heterogeneous. Therefore, we conducted a systematic review and meta-analysis to assess the impact of aerobic exercise on total hippocampal formation volume. Additionally, we used data from a recent multicenter randomized-controlled trial to examine the effects of aerobic exercise on hippocampal formation subfield volumes and their respective clinical implications.

The meta-analysis comprised six studies that investigated the influence of aerobic exercise on total hippocampal formation volume compared to a control condition with a total of 186 people with schizophrenia (100 male, 86 female), while original data from 29 patients (20 male, 9 female) was considered to explore effects of six months of aerobic exercise on hippocampal formation subfield volumes.

Our meta-analysis did not demonstrate a significant effect of aerobic exercise on total hippocampal formation volume in people with schizophrenia (g = 0.33 [−0.12 to 0.77]), p = 0.15), but our original data suggested significant volume increases in certain hippocampal subfields, namely the cornu ammonis and dentate gyrus.

Driven by the necessity of better understanding the pathophysiology of schizophrenia, the present work underlines the importance to focus on hippocampal formation subfields and to characterize subgroups of patients that show neuroplastic responses to aerobic exercise accompanied by corresponding clinical improvements.

Mental disorders and physical-health conditions frequently co-occur, impacting treatment outcomes. While most prior research has focused on single pairs of mental disorders and physical-health conditions, this study explores broader associations between multiple mental disorders and physical-health conditions.

Using the Norwegian primary-care register, this population-based cohort study encompassed all 2 203 553 patients born in Norway from January 1945 through December 1984, who were full-time residents from January 2006 until December 2019 (14 years; 363 million person-months). Associations between seven mental disorders (sleep disturbance, anxiety, depression, acute stress reaction, substance-use disorders, phobia/compulsive disorder, psychosis) and 16 physical-health conditions were examined, diagnosed according to the International Classification of Primary Care.

Of 112 mental-disorder/physical-health condition pairs, 96% of associations yielded positive and significant ORs, averaging 1.41 and ranging from 1.05 (99.99% CI 1.00–1.09) to 2.38 (99.99% CI 2.30–2.46). Across 14 years, every mental disorder was associated with multiple different physical-health conditions. Across 363 million person-months, having any mental disorder was associated with increased subsequent risk of all physical-health conditions (HRs:1.40 [99.99% CI 1.35–1.45] to 2.85 [99.99% CI 2.81–2.89]) and vice versa (HRs:1.56 [99.99% CI 1.54–1.59] to 3.56 [99.99% CI 3.54–3.58]). Associations were observed in both sexes, across age groups, and among patients with and without university education.

The breadth of associations between virtually every mental disorder and physical-health condition among patients treated in primary care underscores a need for integrated mental and physical healthcare policy and practice. This remarkable breadth also calls for research into etiological factors and underlying mechanisms that can explain it.

Borderline personality disorder (BPD) is a debilitating condition characterized by pervasive instability across multiple major domains of functioning. The majority of persons with BPD engage in self-injury and up to 10% die by suicide – rendering persons with this condition at exceptionally elevated risk of comorbidity and premature mortality. Better characterization of clinical risk factors among persons with BPD who die by suicide is urgently needed.

We examined patterns of medical and psychiatric diagnoses (1580 to 1700 Phecodes) among persons with BPD who died by suicide (n = 379) via a large suicide death data resource and biobank. In phenotype-based phenome-wide association tests, we compared these individuals to three other groups: (1) persons who died by suicide without a history of BPD (n = 9468), (2) persons still living with a history of BPD diagnosis (n = 280), and (3) persons who died by suicide with a different personality disorder (other PD n = 589).

Multivariable logistic regression models revealed that persons with BPD who died by suicide were more likely to present with co-occurring psychiatric diagnoses, and have a documented history of self-harm in the medical system prior to death, relative to suicides without BPD. Posttraumatic stress disorder was more elevated among those with BPD who died by suicide relative to the other PD group.

We found significant differences among persons with BPD who died by suicide and all other comparison groups. Such differences may be clinically informative for identifying high-risk subtypes and providing targeted intervention approaches.

First-episode schizophrenia (FES) is a progressive psychiatric disorder influenced by genetics, environmental factors, and brain function. The functional gradient deficits of drug-naïve FES and its relationship to gene expression profiles and treatment outcomes are unknown.

In this study, we engaged a cohort of 116 FES and 100 healthy controls (HC), aged 7 to 30 years, including 15 FES over an 8-week antipsychotic medication regimen. Our examination focused on primary-to-transmodal alterations in voxel-based connection gradients in FES. Then, we employed network topology, Neurosynth, postmortem gene expression, and support vector regression to evaluate integration and segregation functions, meta-analytic cognitive terms, transcriptional patterns, and treatment predictions.

FES displayed diminished global connectome gradients (Cohen's d = 0.32–0.57) correlated with compensatory integration and segregation functions (Cohen's d = 0.31–0.36). Predominant alterations were observed in the default (67.6%) and sensorimotor (21.9%) network, related to high-order cognitive functions. Furthermore, we identified notable overlaps between partial least squares (PLS1) weighted genes and dysregulated genes in other psychiatric conditions. Genes linked with gradient alterations were enriched in synaptic signaling, neurodevelopment process, specific astrocytes, cortical layers (layer II and IV), and developmental phases from late/mid fetal to young adulthood. Additionally, the onset age influenced the severity of FES, with discernible differences in connection gradients between minor- and adult-FES. Moreover, the connectivity gradients of FES at baseline significantly predicted treatment outcomes.

These results offer significant theoretical foundations for elucidating the intricate interplay between macroscopic functional connection gradient changes and microscopic transcriptional patterns during the onset and progression of FES.

We aimed to identify the common types of outcome trajectories for patients with psychosis who take up specialist psychological therapy for persecutory delusions. Knowing the different potential responses to therapy can inform expectations. Further, determining predictors of different outcomes may help in understanding who may benefit.

We analyzed delusion conviction data from 767 therapy sessions with 64 patients with persistent persecutory delusions (held with at least 60% conviction) who received a six-month psychological intervention (Feeling Safe) during a clinical trial. Latent class trajectory analysis was conducted to identify groups with distinct outcome profiles. The trajectories were validated against independent assessments, including a longer-term follow-up six months after the end of therapy. We also tested potential predictors of the trajectories.

There were four outcome trajectories: (1) Very high delusion conviction/Little improvement (n = 14, 25%), (2) Very high delusion conviction/Large improvement (n = 9, 16%), (3) High delusion conviction/Moderate improvement (n = 17, 31%) and (4) High delusion conviction/Large improvement (n = 15, 27%). The groups did not differ in initial overall delusion severity. The trajectories were consistent with the independent assessments and sustained over time. Three factors predicted trajectories: persecutory delusion conviction, therapy expectations, and positive beliefs about other people.

There are variable responses to psychological therapy for persecutory delusions. Patients with very high delusion conviction can have excellent responses to therapy, though this may take a little longer to observe and such high conviction reduces the likelihood of positive responses. A trajectory approach requires testing in larger datasets but may prove highly informative.

To explore the association of cardiovascular-kidney-metabolic (CKM) health with the risk of depression and anxiety and to investigate the joint association of CKM health and social connection with depression and anxiety.

This prospective cohort study included 344 956 participants from the UK Biobank. CKM syndrome was identified as a medical condition with the presence of metabolic risk factors, cardiovascular disease, and chronic kidney disease, and was classified into five stages (stage 0–4) in this study. Loneliness and social isolation status were determined by self-reported questionnaires. Cox proportional hazards models were applied for analyses.

Compared with participants in stage 0, the HRs for depression were 1.17 (95% CI 1.10–1.25), 1.40 (95% CI 1.33–1.48), and 2.14 (95% CI 1.98–2.31) for participants in stage 1, 2–3, and 4, respectively. Similarly, participants in stage 2–3 (HR = 1.20, 95% CI 1.14–1.26) and stage 4 (HR = 1.63, 95% CI 1.51–1.75) had greater risks of incident anxiety. We found additive interactions between loneliness and CKM health on the risk of depression and anxiety. Participants simultaneously reported being lonely and in stage 4 had the greatest risk of depression (HR = 4.44, 95% CI 3.89–5.07) and anxiety (HR = 2.58, 95% CI 2.21–3.01) compared with those without loneliness and in stage 0. We also observed an additive interaction between social isolation and CKM health on the risk of depression.

Our findings suggest the importance of comprehensive interventions to improve CKM health and social connection to reduce the disease burden of depression and anxiety.

ADHD symptoms are associated with emotional problems such as depressive and anxiety symptoms from early childhood to adulthood, with the association increasing with age. A shared aetiology and/or a causal relationship could explain their correlation. In the current study, we explore these explanations for the association between ADHD symptoms and emotional problems from childhood to adulthood.

Data were drawn from the Twins Early Development Study (TEDS), including 3675 identical and 7063 non-identical twin pairs. ADHD symptoms and emotional symptoms were reported by parents from childhood to adulthood. Self-report scales were included from early adolescence. Five direction of causation (DoC) twin models were fitted to distinguish whether associations were better explained by shared aetiology and/or causal relationships in early childhood, mid-childhood, early adolescence, late adolescence, and early adulthood. Follow-up analyses explored associations for the two subdomains of ADHD symptoms, hyperactivity-impulsivity and inattention, separately.

The association between ADHD symptoms and emotional problems increased in magnitude from early childhood to adulthood. In the best-fitting models, positive genetic overlap played an important role in this association at all stages. A negative causal effect running from ADHD symptoms to emotional problems was also detected in early childhood and mid-childhood. When distinguishing ADHD subdomains, the apparent protective effect of ADHD symptoms on emotional problems in childhood was mostly driven by hyperactivity-impulsivity.

Genetic overlap plays an important role in the association between ADHD symptoms and emotional problems. Hyperactivity-impulsivity may protect children from emotional problems in childhood, but this protective effect diminishes after adolescence.

Unpredictability is a core but understudied dimension of adversities and has been receiving increasing attention recently. The effects of unpredictability on psychopathology and the underlying neural mechanisms, however, remain unclear. It is also unknown how unpredictability interacts with other dimensions of adversities in predicting brain development and psychopathology of youth.

We applied cluster robust standard errors to examine how unpredictability was associated with the developmental changes in resting-state functional connectivity (rsFC) of large-scale brain networks implicated in psychopathology, as well as the moderating role of deprivation, using data from the Adolescent Brain Cognitive Development (ABCD) study, which included four measurements from baseline (mean ± s.d. age, 119.13 ± 7.51 months; 2815 females) to 3-year follow-up (N = 5885).

After controlling for threat, unpredictability was associated with a smaller increase in rsFC within default mode network (DMN) and a smaller decrease in rsFC between cingulo-opercular network (CON) and DMN. Neighborhood educational deprivation moderated the associations between unpredictability and changes in rsFC within DMN and fronto-parietal network (FPN), as well as between CON and DMN. A smaller decrease in rsFC between CON and DMN mediated the association between unpredictability and externalizing problems. Neighborhood educational deprivation moderated the indirect pathway from unpredictability to externalizing problems via a smaller decrease in CON-DMN rsFC.

Our findings shed light on the neural mechanisms underlying the associations between unpredictability and adolescents' psychopathology and the moderating role of deprivation, highlighting the significance of providing stable environment and abundant educational opportunities to facilitate optimal development.