A characterization of the exponential distribution in the class of all distributions which are HNBUE or HNWUE is proved. An upper (a lower) bound is obtained on the renewal function of a renewal process when the underlying distribution is HNBUE (HNWUE).

A model for the spread of a carrier-borne disease is considered which allows for individual variability. The solutions are used to study the effect of relaxing the assumption of ‘homogeneous mixing’. It is shown that the mean size of an epidemic outbreak is a minimum when the individuals are homogeneous.

In this paper, an inspection–repair–replacement (IRR) model for a deteriorating system with unobservable state is studied. Assume that the system state can only be diagnosed by inspection and an inspection is imperfect. After inspection, if the system is diagnosed as being in a down state, a minimal repair will be undertaken, otherwise we do nothing. Assume further that the system lifetime is a random variable having increasing failure rate. A feasible IRR policy is studied. An algorithm is then suggested for determining an optimal feasible IRR policy for minimizing the long-run average cost per unit time after a finite-step search.

We introduce a new class of lifetime distributions exhibiting a notion of positive ageing, called the ℳ-class, which is strongly related to the well-known ℒ-class. It is shown that distributions in the ℳ-class cannot have an undesirable property recently observed in an example of an ℒ-class distribution by Klar (2002). Moreover, it is shown how these and related classes of life distributions can be characterized by expected remaining lifetimes after a family of random times, thus extending the notion of NBUE. We give examples of ℳ-class distributions by using simple sufficient conditions, and we derive reliability bounds for distributions in this class.

This paper is concerned with asymptotic results for a single-server queue having periodic Poisson input and general service-time distribution, and carries forward the analysis of this model initiated in Harrison and Lemoine. First, it is shown that a theorem of Hooke relating the stationary virtual and actual waiting-time distributions for the GI/G/1 queue extends to the periodic Poisson model; it is then pointed out that Hooke's theorem leads to the extension (developed in [3]) of a related theorem of Takács. Second, it is demonstrated that the asymptotic distribution for the server-load process at a fixed ‘time of day' coincides with the distribution for the supremum, over the time horizon [0,∞), of the sum of a stationary compound Poisson process with negative drift and a continuous periodic function. Some implications of this characterization result for the computation and approximation of the asymptotic distributions are then discussed, including a direct proof, for the periodic Poisson case, of a recent result of Rolski comparing mean asymptotic customer waiting time with that of a corresponding M/G/1 system.

A new and practically tractable formula for estimating the intensity of the underlying Poisson process of a Boolean model is given, assuming only almost sure boundedness of the primary grain.

The arc-sine laws form one of the cornerstones of classical one-dimensional fluctuation theory. In higher dimensions, knowledge of fluctuation theory remains a great deal less complete. Motivated by this, we consider higher-dimensional analogues of the classical arc-sine laws.

Some recent work on discrete time dam models has been concerned with special cases in which the input process is a Markov chain whose transition probabilities, pij, are given by where A(·) and B(·) are probability generating functions (p.g.f.'s). In this paper we obtain some results for the general situation. The convergence norm of the matrix [pijxj] is found and the results are used to obtain the p.g.f. of the first emptiness time. Distributions of the dam content are obtained and conditions are found for the existence of their limits. The p.g.f. of this distribution is so complicated that its identification in any special case is extremely difficult, or even impossible. Thus useful approximations are needed; we obtain a ‘heavy traffic’ limit theorem which suggests that under certain circumstances the limiting distribution can be approximated by an exponential distribution.

The Markov-Dobrushin condition for (weak) ergodicity of non-homogeneous discrete-time Markov chains, and an analogous criterion for continuous chains, are derived by means of coupling techniques.

If events occur in time according to a stochastic process then, under not very restrictive conditions, each realization will appear to come from a Poisson process with its own rate provided that the events in the realization occur at effectively random times. This result is related to de Finetti's theorem on exchangeable events. Particular applications are to the Pólya process describing accidents and the pure birth process.

This paper studies the dependence structure and bounds of several basic prototypical parallel queueing systems with correlated arrival processes to different queues. The marked feature of our systems is that each queue viewed alone is a standard single-server queuing system extensively studied in the literature, but those queues are statistically dependent due to correlated arrival streams. The major difficulty in analysing those systems is that the presence of correlation makes the explicit computation of a joint performance measure either intractable or computationally intensive. In addition, it is not well understood how and in what sense arrival correlation will improve or deteriorate a system performance measure.

The objective of this paper is to provide a better understanding of the dependence structure of correlated queueing systems and to derive computable bounds for the statistics of a joint performance measure. In this paper, we obtain conditions on arrival processes under which a performance measure in two systems can be compared, in the sense of orthant and supermodular orders, among different queues and over different arrival times. Such strong comparison results enable us to study both spatial dependence (dependence among different queues) and temporal dependence (dependence over different time instances) for a joint performance measure. Further, we derive a variety of upper and lower bounds for the statistics of a stationary joint performance measure. Finally, we apply our results to synchronized queueing systems, using the ideas combined from the theory of orthant and supermodular dependence orders and majorization with respect to weighted trees (Xu and Li (2000)). Our results reveal how a performance measure can be affected, favourably or adversely, by different types of dependencies.

We will consider the optimal search for a target whose motion is a Markov process. The classical detection law leads to the use of multiplicative functionals and the search is equivalent to the termination of the Markov process with a termination density. A general condition for the optimality is derived and for Markov processes in n-dimensional Euclidean space with continuous transition functions we derive a simple necessary condition which generalizes the result of Hellman (1972).

We consider a network traffic model consisting of an infinite number of sources linked to a server. Sources initiate transmissions to the server at Poisson time points. The duration of each transmission has a heavy-tailed distribution. We show that suitable scalings of the traffic process converge to a totally skewed stable Lévy motion in Skorohod space, equipped with the Skorohod M1 topology. This allows us to prove a heavy-traffic theorem for a single-server fluid model.

Disaster arrival into a queueing system causes all customers to leave the system instantaneously. We present a numerically stable algorithm for calculating the stationary state distribution of an embedded Markov chain for the BMAP/SM/1 queue with a MAP input of disasters.

Many species of birds have a characteristic clutch size which is either fixed at k or is of the form k or k + 1 for some appropriate integer k. In this paper we show, using a multitype Galton–Watson process to model a bird population, that such behaviour can correspond to maximization of the probability of survival of the species to time t for each finite t. This is also a conclusion which might be drawn from the theory of natural selection and hence provides some mathematical evidence of the force of evolution. The results of the paper rest on a bounding of probability generating functions.

In this short article we will provide a sufficient and necessary condition to have uniqueness of the location of the maximum of a stochastic process over an interval. The result will also express the mean value of the location in terms of the derivative of the expectation of the maximum of a linear perturbation of the underlying process. As an application, we will consider a Brownian motion with variable drift. The ideas behind the method of proof will also be useful to study the location of the maximum, over the real line, of a two-sided Brownian motion minus a parabola and of a stationary process minus a parabola.

We propose a new method to obtain the boundary crossing probabilities or the first passage time distribution for linear and nonlinear boundaries for Brownian motion. The method also covers certain classes of stochastic processes associated with Brownian motion. The basic idea of the method is based on being able to construct a finite Markov chain, and the boundary crossing probability of Brownian motion is cast as the limiting probability of the finite Markov chain entering a set of absorbing states induced by the boundaries. Error bounds are obtained. Numerical results for various types of boundary studied in the literature are provided in order to illustrate our method.

In this paper we provide further results on the general d-dimensional correlated random walk. In particular, we prove that the n-step characteristic function of any correlated random walk satisfies a recurrence formula which enables both it and the total characteristic function to be obtained. Some examples are then considered.

In a Galton-Watson branching process that is not extinct by the nth generation and has at least two individuals, pick two individuals at random by simple random sampling without replacement. Trace their lines of descent back in time till they meet. Call that generation Xn a pairwise coalescence time. Similarly, let Yn denote the coalescence time for the whole population of the nth generation conditioned on the event that it is not extinct. In this paper the distributions of Xn and Yn, and their limit behaviors as n → ∞ are discussed for both the critical and subcritical cases.

A formula is given for the response function of a filter which extracts a signal generated by a non-stationary process from amid noise. The non-stationarity is due to the presence of zeros on the unit circle of the function characterising the difference equation generating the signal. The signal is broken into a trend component and a stochastic integral in which t occurs only through the factor exp it λ and it is shown that the filter which optimally extracts the latter perfectly represents the former. The considerations cover the case of a vector series. Applications to problems in seasonal variation measurement are indicated.