Vector autoregressive processes of the first order are considered which are non-negative and optimize a linear objective function. These processes may be used in stochastic linear programming with a dynamic structure. By using Tweedie's results from the theory of Markov chains, conditions for geometric rates of convergence to stationarity (i.e. so-called geometric ergodicity) and for existence and geometric convergence of moments of these processes are obtained.

Two types of limit theorems are proved for processes of randomly displaced regular events. Firstly, as the displacements tend to infinity, the counting process is shown to converge weakly to a Poisson process and secondly, as the interval between events tends to zero, convergence of the finite-dimensional distributions of the associated storage process to a diffusion is proved.

Hoeffding's inequality can be used in conjunction with the declared parameters of a traffic source, such as its peak rate, to obtain confidence intervals for measurements of the traffic's effective bandwidth. We describe a variety of interval-estimation procedures based on this idea, designed to provide differing degrees of robustness against non-stationarity. We also discuss how to compute confidence intervals for the effective bandwidth of an aggregate of traffic sources.

Recently, there has been considerable interest in the calculation of decay rates for models that can be viewed as quasi-birth-and-death (QBD) processes with infinitely many phases. In this paper we make a contribution to this endeavour by considering some classes of models in which the transition function is not homogeneous in the phase direction. We characterize the range of decay rates that are compatible with the dynamics of the process away from the boundary. In many cases, these rates can be attained by changing the transition structure of the QBD process at level 0. Our approach, which relies on the use of orthogonal polynomials, is an extension of that in Motyer and Taylor (2006) for the case where the generator has homogeneous blocks.

The asymptotic behavior of the Jaccard index in G(n, p), the classical Erdös–Rényi random graph model, is studied as n goes to infinity. We first derive the asymptotic distribution of the Jaccard index of any pair of distinct vertices, as well as the first two moments of this index. Then the average of the Jaccard indices over all vertex pairs in G(n, p) is shown to be asymptotically normal under an additional mild condition that $np\to\infty$ and $n^2(1-p)\to\infty$.

In this paper we propose a new method of determining the stability of queueing systems. We attain it using the absorbing process and introduce the untraceable events method to show the existence of the absorbing process. The advantage of our method is that we are able to discuss the stability of various variables for both discrete and continuous parameters in a general framework with nonstationary input. An untraceable event has the property that the state loses the memory of its origin. In a concrete model, we use the boundedness of the state at an epoch in time with respect to the initial condition and choose the form of the untraceable event corresponding to the input distribution.

Looking at a large branching population we determine along which path the population that started at 1 at time 0 ended up in B at time N. The result describes the density process, that is, population numbers divided by the initial number K (where K is assumed to be large). The model considered is that of a Galton-Watson process. It is found that in some cases population paths exhibit the strange feature that population numbers go down and then increase. This phenomenon requires further investigation. The technique uses large deviations, and the rate function based on Cramer's theorem is given. It also involves analysis of existence of solutions of a certain algebraic equation.

We study the uncertain dichotomous choice model. In this model, a group of expert decision makers is required to select one of two alternatives. The applications of this model are relevant to a wide variety of areas. A decision rule translates the individual opinions of the members into a group decision, and is optimal if it maximizes the probability of the group making a correct choice. In this paper, we assume the correctness probabilities of the experts to be independent random variables selected from some given distribution. Moreover, the ranking of the members in the group is (at least partly) known. Thus, one can follow rules based on this ranking. The extremes are the expert rule and the majority rule. The probabilities of the two extreme rules being optimal were compared in a series of early papers, for a variety of distributions. In most cases, the asymptotic behaviours of the probabilities of the two extreme rules followed the same patterns. Do these patterns hold in general? If not, what are the ranges of possible asymptotic behaviours of the probabilities of the two extreme rules being optimal? In this paper, we provide satisfactory answers to these questions.

We prove that a stochastic process of pure coagulation has at any time t ≥ 0 a time-dependent Gibbs distribution if and only if the rates ψ(i, j) of single coagulations are of the form ψ(i; j) = if(j) + jf(i), where f is an arbitrary nonnegative function on the set of positive integers. We also obtain a recurrence relation for weights of these Gibbs distributions that allow us to derive the general form of the solution and the explicit solutions in three particular cases of the function f. For the three corresponding models, we study the probability of coagulation into one giant cluster by time t > 0.

This paper provides a simple proof for the fact that the hitting time to an infrequently visited subset for a one-dependent regenerative process converges weakly to an exponential distribution. Special cases are positive recurrent Harris chains and Harris processes. The paper further extends this class of limit theorems to ‘rewards’ that are cumulated to the hitting time of such a rare set.

We consider a multivariate Lévy process where the first coordinate is a Lévy process with no negative jumps which is not a subordinator and the others are non-decreasing. We determine the Laplace–Stieltjes transform of the steady-state buffer content vector of an associated system of parallel queues. The special structure of this transform allows us to rewrite it as a product of joint Laplace–Stieltjes transforms. We are thus able to interpret the buffer content vector as a sum of independent random vectors.

In this paper, a new approach is proposed to investigate Blackwell-type renewal theorems for weighted renewal functions systematically according to which of the tails of weighted renewal constants or the underlying distribution is asymptotically heavier. Some classical results are improved considerably.

A large deviations principle (LDP), demonstrated for occupancy problems with indistinguishable balls, is generalized to the case in which balls are distinguished by a finite number of colors. The colors of the balls are chosen independently from the occupancy process itself. There are r balls thrown into n urns with the probability of a ball entering a given urn being 1/n (i.e. Maxwell-Boltzmann statistics). The LDP applies with the scale parameter, n, tending to infinity and r increasing proportionally. The LDP holds under mild restrictions, the key one being that the coloring process by itself satisfies an LDP. This includes the important special cases of deterministic coloring patterns and colors chosen with fixed probabilities independently for each ball.

The conditional probability that a Galton-Watson process with initial population j dies out before an independent Galton-Watson process initially i, is computed asymptotically as i or j gets large, given that both processes eventually die out. The results are interpreted qualitatively to discuss parameters of fitness for biological populations, especially with respect to the spread of mutant genes under evolutionary models.

We show that the supremum of the successive percentages of red balls in Pólya's urn model is almost surely rational, give the set of values that are taken with positive probability, and derive several exact distributional results for the all-time maximal percentage.

We show analogs of the classical arcsine theorem for the occupation time of a random walk in (−∞,0) in the case of a small positive drift. To study the asymptotic behavior of the total time spent in (−∞,0) we consider parametrized classes of random walks, where the convergence of the parameter to 0 implies the convergence of the drift to 0. We begin with shift families, generated by a centered random walk by adding to each step a shift constant a>0 and then letting a tend to 0. Then we study families of associated distributions. In all cases we arrive at the same limiting distribution, which is the distribution of the time spent below 0 of a standard Brownian motion with drift 1. For shift families this is explained by a functional limit theorem. Using fluctuation-theoretic formulae we derive the generating function of the occupation time in closed form, which provides an alternative approach. We also present a new form of the first arcsine law for the Brownian motion with drift.