In applied probability, the distribution of a sum of n independent Bernoulli random variables with success probabilities p1,p2,…, pn is often approximated by a Poisson distribution with parameter λ = p1 + p2 + pn. Popular bounds for the approximation error are excellent for small values, but less efficient for moderate values of p1,p2,…,pn.

Upper bounds for the total variation distance are established, improving conventional estimates if the success probabilities are of medium size. The results may be applied directly, e.g. to approximation problems in risk theory.

It is shown that the gamma distribution with shape parameter α can be obtained through a p-thinning for every 0 < p < 1, when 0 < α ≦ 1. In the case α > 1, the gamma distribution cannot be obtained through thinning. The class of renewal processes with gamma-distributed times between events is considered. It is shown that an ordinary gamma renewal process is a Cox process if and only if 0 < α ≦ 1. Necessary and sufficient conditions for delayed gamma renewal processes to be Cox are also given. Finally, a short description of the gamma renewal process as a Cox process is given.

In two recent works, Kuba and Mahmoud (2015a) and (2015b) introduced the family of two-color affine balanced Pólya urn schemes with multiple drawings. We show that, in large-index urns (urn index between ½ and 1) and triangular urns, the martingale tail sum for the number of balls of a given color admits both a Gaussian central limit theorem as well as a law of the iterated logarithm. The laws of the iterated logarithm are new, even in the standard model when only one ball is drawn from the urn in each step (except for the classical Pólya urn model). Finally, we prove that the martingale limits exhibit densities (bounded under suitable assumptions) and exponentially decaying tails. Applications are given in the context of node degrees in random linear recursive trees and random circuits.

We study zero-sum optimal stopping games (Dynkin games) between two players who disagree about the underlying model. In a Markovian setting, a verification result is established showing that if a pair of functions can be found that satisfies some natural conditions then a Nash equilibrium of stopping times is obtained, with the given functions as the corresponding value functions. In general, however, there is no uniqueness of Nash equilibria, and different equilibria give rise to different value functions. As an example, we provide a thorough study of the game version of the American call option under heterogeneous beliefs. Finally, we also study equilibria in randomized stopping times.

We show for a certain class of Galton–Watson branching processes in varying environments (Zn)n that moments of the maximum random variable supnZn/Cn exist if and only if the same moments of limnZn/Cn exist, where Cn is a sequence of suitable constants.

A random process on the circle is a family of random variables X(P,t) indexed by the position P on the unit circle and by the time t (t = 0, + 1, ···). For a homogeneous and stationary process, using its Fourier series expansion, we deduce a spectral representation of the covariance function. The purpose of the paper is to develop a spectral analysis when X(P,t) is observed at all the points on the circle at t = 0, 1, ···, T – 1. The asymptotic distribution of the family of finite Fourier transforms, of the family of periodograms and of the family of spectral densities estimates are obtained from results available for vector-valued time series. Also, a sample covariance function for X (P,t) is defined and its asymptotic distribution derived.

We consider two models for the control of a satellite–in the first, fuel is expended in a linear fashion to move a satellite following a diffusion–where the aim is to keep the satellite above a critical level for as long as possible (or indeed to reach a higher, ‘safe’ level). Under suitable assumptions for the drift and diffusion coefficients, it is shown that the stochastic maximum of the time to fall below the critical level is attained by a policy which imposes a reflecting boundary at the critical level until the fuel is exhausted and jumps the satellite directly to the safe level if this is ever possible. In the second model, there is a nonlinear response to the expenditure of fuel, and no safe level. It is shown that the optimal policy for maximizing the expected discounted time for the satellite to crash is similar, in that equal packets of fuel are used to jump the satellite upwards each time it reaches the critical level.

We consider a stochastic process which increases and decreases by simple jumps as well as smoothly. The rate of smooth increase and decrease with time is a function of the state of the process. The process is not constant in time except when in the zero state. For such processes a relation is derived between the expected number of true crossings (as opposed to skippings by which we mean vertical crossings due to jumps) of a level x, say, and the time dependent distribution of the process. This result is applied to the virtual waiting time process of the GI/G/1 queue, where it is of particular interest when the zero level is considered, as the underlying crossing process is then a renewal process. It leads to a new derivation of the busy period distribution for this system. This serves as an example for the last brief section, where an indication is given as to how this method may be applied to the GI/G/s queue. Naturally, the present method is most powerful when the original process is a Markov process, so that renewal processes are imbedded at all levels. For an application to the M/G/1 queue, see Roes [3].

We consider a variant of the randomly reinforced urn where more balls can be simultaneously drawn out and balls of different colors can be simultaneously added. More precisely, at each time-step, the conditional distribution of the number of extracted balls of a certain color, given the past, is assumed to be hypergeometric. We prove some central limit theorems in the sense of stable convergence and of almost sure conditional convergence, which are stronger than convergence in distribution. The proven results provide asymptotic confidence intervals for the limit proportion, whose distribution is generally unknown. Moreover, we also consider the case of more urns subjected to some random common factors.

Aging, of biological and mechanical systems, is well described as ‘deterioration of the power to withstand destruction.’ The failure-rate concept is the mathematical way of describing aging. Failure rates have been defined for discrete and continuous time and used extensively, particularly in actuarial science and reliability. This paper assumes an arbitrary scale on which an object encounters stress, and develops a theory of failure rate with respect to ‘stress-time’ in analogy with the discrete- and continuous-time cases.

In this paper we study the departure process of M/G/1 queueing models with a single server vacation and multiple server vacations. The arguments employed are direct probability decomposition, renewal theory and the Laplace–Stieltjes transform. We discuss the distribution of the interdeparture time and the expected number of departures occurring in the time interval (0, t] from the beginning of the state i (i = 0, 1, 2, ···), and provide a new method for analysis of the departure process of the single-server queue.

We present two new stochastic volatility models in which option prices for European plain-vanilla options have closed-form expressions. The models are motivated by the well-known SABR model, but use modified dynamics of the underlying asset. The asset process is modelled as a product of functions of two independent stochastic processes: a Cox-Ingersoll-Ross process and a geometric Brownian motion. An application of the models to options written on foreign currencies is studied.

We prove a new heavy traffic limit result for a simple queueing network under a ‘join the shorter queue’ policy, with the amount of traffic which has a routeing choice tending to zero as heavy traffic is approached. In this limit, the system considered does not exhibit state space collapse as in previous work by Foschini and Salz, and Reiman, but there is nevertheless some resource pooling gain over a policy of random routeing.

We consider the following ordering for stochastic processes as introduced by Irle and Gani (2001). A process (Yt)t is said to be slower in level crossing than a process (Zt)t if it takes (Yt)t stochastically longer than (Zt)t to exceed any given level. In Irle and Gani (2001), this ordering was investigated for Markov chains in discrete time. Here these results are carried over to semi-Markov processes with particular attention to birth-and-death processes and also to Wiener processes.

The risk reserve process of an insurance company within a deteriorating Markov-modulated environment is considered. The company invests its capital with interest rate α; the premiums and claims are increasing with rates β and γ. The problem of stopping the process at a random time which maximizes the expected net gain in order to calculate new premiums is investigated. A semimartingale representation of the risk reserve process yields, under certain conditions, an explicit solution of the problem.

Markovian systems with multiple interacting subsystems under the influence of a control unit are considered. The state spaces of the subsystems are countably infinite, whereas that of the control unit is finite. A recent infinite level-dependent quasi-birth-and-death model for such systems is extended by facilitating the automatic representation and generation of the nonzero blocks in its underlying infinitesimal generator matrix with sums of Kronecker products. Experiments are performed on systems of stochastic chemical kinetics having two or more countably infinite state space subsystems. Results indicate that, even though more memory is consumed, there are many cases where a matrix-analytic solution coupled with Lyapunov theory yields a faster and more accurate steady-state measure compared to that obtained with simulation.

We introduce a new class of interacting particle systems on a graph G. Suppose initially there are Ni(0) particles at each vertex i of G, and that the particles interact to form a Markov chain: at each instant two particles are chosen at random, and if these are at adjacent vertices of G, one particle jumps to the other particle's vertex, each with probability 1/2. The process N enters a death state after a finite time when all the particles are in some independent subset of the vertices of G, i.e. a set of vertices with no edges between any two of them. The problem is to find the distribution of the death state, ηi = Ni(∞), as a function of Ni(0).

We are able to obtain, for some special graphs, the limiting distribution of Ni if the total number of particles N → ∞ in such a way that the fraction, Ni(0)/S = ξi, at each vertex is held fixed as N → ∞. In particular we can obtain the limit law for the graph S2, the two-leaf star which has three vertices and two edges.

Earlier stochastic analyses of chemical reactions have provided formal solutions which are unsuitable for most purposes in that they are expressed in terms of complex algebraic functions. Normal approximations are derived here for solutions to a variety of reactions. Using these, it is possible to investigate the level at which the classical deterministic solutions become inadequate. This is important in fields such as radioimmunoassay.

Let {X(s, t): s, t ≥ 0} be a centred homogeneous Gaussian field with almost surely continuous sample paths and correlation function r(s, t) = cov(X(s, t), X(0, 0)) such that r(s, t) = 1 - |s|α1 - |t|α2 + o(|s|α1 + |t|α2), s, t → 0, with α1, α2 ∈ (0, 2], and r(s, t) < 1 for (s, t) ≠ (0, 0). In this contribution we derive an asymptotic expansion (as u → ∞) of P(sup(sn1(u),tn2(u)) ∈[0,x]∙[0,y]X(s, t) ≤ u), where n1(u)n2(u) = u2/α1+2/α2Ψ(u), which holds uniformly for (x, y) ∈ [A, B]2 with A, B two positive constants and Ψ the survival function of an N(0, 1) random variable. We apply our findings to the analysis of extremes of homogeneous Gaussian fields over more complex parameter sets and a ball of random radius. Additionally, we determine the extremal index of the discretised random field determined by X(s, t).

The superposition of independent, discrete, renewal processes produces a counting process which is also a discrete time series. The conditional distribution and correlation structure of this kind of time series may be obtained. In suitable conditions the conditional distribution has a spectrum which is exactly or approximately rational. When this is so, an ARMA can be found which matches the spectrum of the superposition.