Norovirus is the leading cause of acute gastroenteritis in the USA. Although secondary household transmission of norovirus is frequently reported in outbreaks, little is known about specific risk factors for susceptibility and infectiousness in the household. Three norovirus outbreaks were investigated and data were collected on individuals exposed in the primary outbreak setting and their household members. Potential individual- and household-level risk factors for susceptibility and infectiousness were assessed using univariate and multivariate generalised linear mixed models. In the univariate models, the secondary attack rate (SAR) was significantly higher when living in a household with two or more primary cases (incidence rate ratio (IRR) = 2·1; 95% confidence interval (CI) 1·37–3·29), more than one primary case with vomiting (IRR = 1·9; CI 1·11–3·37), and at least one primary case with diarrhoea (IRR = 3·0; CI 1·46–6·01). After controlling for other risk factors in the multivariate models, the SAR was significantly higher among those living in a household with two or more primary cases (adjusted IRR = 2·0; CI 1·17–3·47) and at least one primary case with diarrhoea (adjusted IRR = 2·8; CI 1·35–5·93). These findings underscore the importance of maintaining proper hygiene and isolating ill household members to prevent norovirus transmission in the household.

Vaccinating monkeys against yellow fever (YF) has been a common practice in the beginning of the 17D vaccine development. Although it may seem strange at first sight, vaccinating monkeys as a public health strategy is, we think, feasible and theoretically could eliminate the infection among non-human primates, interrupting the virus circulation (or significantly reducing it) and therefore reducing the risk of spilling over to the human population. We propose a series of studies that could demonstrate (or not) the efficacy and feasibility of vaccinating non-human primates YF reservoirs living in green areas of urban centres to cut off or curb the virus circulation that recurrently spill over to the human population. Therefore, vaccinating monkeys in relatively small green areas of the urban centres is perhaps the ultimate solution for the Brazilian recurrent YF epizootics.

The burden of tuberculosis (TB) among adolescents and young adults in endemic settings is poorly characterised. This study aimed to review published and unpublished estimates of the incidence and prevalence of bacteriologically confirmed TB among young people aged 10–24 years. We searched PubMed and World Health Organization archives for publications and unpublished data from population-based epidemiologic studies reporting confirmed pulmonary TB among young people, conducted from January 2000 onwards. We identified 27 publications and unpublished data from two national surveys, representing a total of 26 studies in 19 countries. The prevalence of bacteriologically confirmed TB ranged from 45 to 799 per 100 000 in the Asia-Pacific region and from 160 to 462 per 100 000 in African settings. We did not identify any epidemiologic studies of confirmed TB among adolescents living with human immunodeficiency virus (HIV). Many studies were excluded due to absent or inadequately reported age-specific data. Adolescents and young adults living in many endemic settings appear to be at substantial risk of developing active TB. There is a pressing need to improve the routine reporting of age in epidemiologic studies of TB, and to generate high-quality epidemiologic data regarding TB among adolescents living with HIV.

The Arizona Department of Health Services identified unusually high levels of influenza activity and severe complications during the 2015–2016 influenza season leading to concerns about potential increased disease severity compared with prior seasons. We estimated state-level burden and severity to compare across three seasons using multiple data sources for community-level illness, hospitalisation and death. Severity ratios were calculated as the number of hospitalisations or deaths per community case. Community influenza-like illness rates, hospitalisation rates and mortality rates in 2015–2016 were higher than the previous two seasons. However, ratios of severe disease to community illness were similar. Arizona experienced overall increased disease burden in 2015–2016, but not increased severity compared with prior seasons. Timely estimates of state-specific burden and severity are potentially feasible and may provide important information during seemingly unusual influenza seasons or pandemic situations.

Primary care clinicians have a central role in managing influenza/influenza-like illness (ILI) during influenza pandemics. This study identifies risk factors for influenza-related complications in children presenting with influenza/ILI in primary care. We conducted a cohort study using routinely collected linked data from the Clinical Practice Research Datalink on children aged 17 years and younger who presented with influenza/ILI during the 2009/10 pandemic. We calculated odds ratios (ORs) for potential risk factors in relation to influenza-related complications, complications requiring intervention, pneumonia, all-cause hospitalisation and hospitalisation due to influenza-related complications within 30 days of presentation. Analyses were adjusted for potential confounders including age, vaccination and socio-economic deprivation. Asthma was a risk factor for influenza-related complications (adjusted OR 1.48, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.21–1.80, P < 0.001), complications requiring intervention (adjusted OR 1.44, 95% CI 1.11–1.88; P = 0.007), pneumonia (adjusted OR 1.64, 95% CI 1.07–2.51, P = 0.024) and hospitalisation due to influenza-related complications (adjusted OR 2.46, 95% CI 1.09–5.56, P = 0.031). Neurological conditions were risk factors for all-cause hospitalisation (adjusted OR 4.25, 95% CI 1.50–12.07, P = 0.007) but not influenza-related complications (adjusted OR 1.46, 95% CI 0.83–2.56, P = 0.189). Community-based early interventions to prevent influenza-related clinical deterioration should therefore be primarily targeted at children with asthma and neurological conditions.

Globally, the prevalence of tuberculosis (TB) disease is higher in males. This study examined the effect of sex and age on Mycobacterium tuberculosis (Mtb) infection. Demographic and exposure data were collected on household contacts of sputum smear-positive pulmonary TB patients in Brazil. Contacts with tuberculin skin test induration ⩾10 mm at baseline or 12 weeks were considered Mtb infected. The study enrolled 917 household contacts from 160 households; 508 (55.4%) were female, median age was 21.0 years (range 0.30–87.0) and 609 (66.4%) had Mtb infection. The proportion infected increased with age from 63.3% in girls <5 years to 75.4% in women ⩾40 years and from 44.9% in boys <5 years to 73.6% in men ⩾40 years. Multivariable modelling showed the odds of infection increased between age 5 and 14 years among female contacts (OR 1.5 per 5-year age increase; 95% CI 1.1–2.2; P = 0.02) and between ages 0–4 and 15–39 years among male contacts (OR 2.7, 95% CI 0.83–8.9 and 1.1, 95% CI 0.99–1.3 per 5-year age increase; P = 0.10, 0.07, respectively). The study suggests that the age at which Mtb infection increases most is different in females compared with males. Studies are needed to explore whether these findings are due to differences in host susceptibility, exposure outside the household or other factors.

Intranasal octenidine, an antiseptic alternative to mupirocin, can be used for methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus (MRSA) decolonisation in the prevention of nosocomial transmission. A controlled before–after study was conducted in three extended-care hospitals in Singapore. All inpatients with >48 h stay were screened for MRSA colonisation in mid-2015(pre-intervention) and mid-2016(post-intervention). Hospital A: universal daily chlorhexidine bathing throughout 2015 and 2016, with intranasal octenidine for MRSA-colonisers in 2016. Hospital B: universal daily octenidine bathing and intranasal octenidine for MRSA-colonisers in 2016. Hospital C: no intervention. In 2015, MRSA prevalence was similar among the hospitals (Hospital A: 38.5%, Hospital B: 48.1%, Hospital C: 43.4%, P = 0.288). From 2015 to 2016, MRSA prevalence reduced by 58% in Hospital A (Adj OR 0.42, 95% CI 0.20–0.89) and 43% in Hospital B (Adj OR 0.57, 95% CI 0.39–0.84), but remained similar in Hospital C (Adj OR 1.19, 95% CI 0.60–2.33), after adjusting for age, gender, comorbidities, prior MRSA carriage, prior antibiotics exposure and length of hospital stay. Compared with the change in MRSA prevalence from 2015 to 2016 in Hospital C, MRSA prevalence declined substantially in Hospital A (Adj OR 0.35, 95% CI 0.13–0.97) and Hospital B (Adj OR 0.48, 95% CI 0.22–1.03). Topical intranasal octenidine, coupled with universal daily antiseptic bathing, can reduce MRSA colonisation in extended-care facilities.

We evaluated and compared the completeness, timeliness, simplicity, usefulness and flexibility between the former National Tuberculosis (TB) Surveillance System (NTBSS) and the newer Computerised Infectious Disease Reporting System (CIDR). Completeness was assessed by examining the field completion of key variables and median time from diagnosis to notification was calculated to evaluate timeliness. Differences between the two systems on completeness and timeliness were statistically assessed using χ2 and Wilcoxon rank-sum test, respectively. An online questionnaire on simplicity, flexibility and usefulness was sent to key stakeholders. Time and diagnosis-related variables were more complete in NTBSS, while variables on drug susceptibility, HIV and laboratory tests were more complete in CIDR (P < 0.05). The median time notification interval increased significantly in CIDR (P < 0.05). Stakeholders thought that CIDR is simpler (37.5%), more useful (41.7%) and more flexible (29.2%) than NTBSS. This study demonstrated that CIDR did not improve data completeness and decreased timeliness of notification. Simplicity, usefulness and flexibility were improved but qualitative methods should be applied to further explore these results.

Norovirus (NoV) is a major cause of acute gastroenteritis (AGE). In this study, we investigated the genetic diversity of NoV strains identified in children under 5 years of age with AGE in four provinces of Angola. Faecal samples from 343 children were screened for NoV by an in house real-time PCR assay and genotyping was performed by partial capsid gene sequencing. NoV was detected in 17.4% (58/334) of the samples, with high detection rates in children <6 months old (19%) and in children aged 12–24 months (23%). Genotype diversity was large, as demonstrated by the 11 identified genotypes. GII.4 was the predominant genotype (20% of all NoV-positive samples), followed by GII.6 (15%), GI.3 (12%), GII.7 (10%) and by other genotypes to a lesser extent. Two GII.4 variants, New Orleans 2009 and Sydney 2012, were detected and several genetic clusters were observed for genotypes GI.3, GII.6 and GII.7. The present study shows high detection rates and genetic diversity of circulating NoV genotypes in paediatric AGE samples from Angola. This information emphasises the importance of continuous assessment of NoV burden and evolution in the target population.

Improving access to tuberculosis (TB) care and ensuring early diagnosis are two major aims of the WHO End TB strategy and the Collaborative TB Strategy for England. This study describes risk factors associated with diagnostic delay among TB cases in England. We conducted a retrospective cohort study of TB cases notified to the Enhanced TB Surveillance System in England between 2012 and 2015. Diagnostic delay was defined as more than 4 months between symptom onset and treatment start date. Multivariable logistic regression was used to identify demographic and clinical factors associated with diagnostic delay. Between 2012 and 2015, 22 422 TB cases were notified in England and included in the study. A third (7612) of TB cases had a diagnostic delay of more than 4 months. Being female, aged 45 years and older, residing outside of London and having extra-pulmonary TB disease were significantly associated with a diagnostic delay in the multivariable model (aOR = 1.2, 1.2, 1.2, 1.3, 1.8, respectively). This study identifies demographic and clinical factors associated with diagnostic delay, which will inform targeted interventions to improve access to care and early diagnosis among these groups, with the ultimate aim of helping reduce transmission and improve treatment outcomes for TB cases in England.

Salmonellosis is a leading cause of hospitalisation due to gastroenteritis in Australia. A previous source attribution analysis for a temperate state in Australia attributed most infections to chicken meat or eggs. Queensland is in northern Australia and includes subtropical and tropical climate zones. We analysed Queensland notifications for salmonellosis and conducted source attribution to compare reservoir sources with those in southern Australia. In contrast to temperate Australia, most infections were due to non-Typhimurium serotypes, with particularly high incidence in children under 5 years and strong seasonality, peaking in summer. We attributed 65.3% (95% credible interval (CrI) 60.6–73.2) of cases to either chicken meat or eggs and 15.5% (95% CrI 7.0–19.5) to nuts. The subtypes with the strongest associations with nuts were Salmonella Aberdeen, S. Birkenhead, S. Hvittingfoss, S. Potsdam and S. Waycross. All five subtypes had high rates of illness in children under 5 years (ranging from 4/100 000 to 23/100 000), suggesting that nuts may be serving as a proxy for environmental transmission in the model. Australia's climatic range allows us to conduct source attribution in different climate zones with similar food consumption patterns. This attribution provides evidence for environment-mediated transmission of salmonellosis in sub-tropical regions.

Patients with chronic liver disease (CLD) have frequent exposure to Clostridium difficile infection (CDI) risk factors but the incidence and aetiology of CDI on this population is poorly understood. The aim of this study was to assess the incidence, disease presentation and outcomes of CDI in patients with underlying CLD. The Health Care and Utilization Project National Inpatient Sample (HCUP-NIS) 2009 dataset was used to identify patients with CLD who developed CDI along with matched non-CLD patients with CDI. Using the NIS dataset, the incidence rate of CDI was 189.4/10 000 discharges in CLD patients vs. 83.7/10 000 discharges in the non-CLD matched cohort (P < 0.001). Compared with non-CLD, comorbidity-matched controls with CDI, CLD patients with CDI had higher likelihood of in-hospital mortality (8.8% vs. 18.6%, P < 0.001), increased length of stay by 1.19 days (P < 0.001) and increased total costs by $8632 (P < 0.001). In separate analyses using a tertiary case database of hospitalised patients in Houston, Texas (2006–2016) with CLD and CDI (n = 41) compared with patients with CDI but not CLD (n = 111), CLD patients had significantly higher Charlson comorbidity index (P < 0.0001) but similar risk factors for CDI and CDI-related disease presentation compared with non-CLD patients. In conclusion, CDI-related risk factors were almost universally present in the CLD population. CDI resulted in worse outcomes in this population.

During the 2009 influenza pandemic, a rapid assessment of disease severity was a challenge as a significant proportion of cases did not seek medical care; care-seeking behaviour changed and the proportion asymptomatic was unknown. A random-digit-dialling telephone survey was undertaken during the 2011/12 winter season in England and Wales to address the feasibility of answering these questions. A proportional quota sampling strategy was employed based on gender, age group, geographical location, employment status and level of education. Households were recruited pre-season and re-contacted immediately following peak seasonal influenza activity. The pre-peak survey was undertaken in October 2011 with 1061 individuals recruited and the post-peak telephone survey in March 2012. Eight hundred and thirty-four of the 1061 (78.6%) participants were successfully re-contacted. Their demographic characteristics compared well to national census data. In total, 8.4% of participants self-reported an influenza-like illness (ILI) in the previous 2 weeks, with 3.2% conforming to the World Health Organization (WHO) ILI case definition. In total, 29.6% of the cases reported consulting their general practitioner. 54.1% of the 1061 participants agreed to be re-contacted about providing biological samples. A population-based cohort was successfully recruited and followed up. Longitudinal survey methodology provides a practical tool to assess disease severity during future pandemics.

Studies estimating the human health impact of the foodborne disease often include estimates of the number of gastroenteritis hospitalisations. The aims of this study were to examine the degree to which hospital discharge data underreport hospitalisations due to bacterial gastroenteritis and to estimate the frequency of stool sample submission among patients presenting with gastroenteritis. Using linked laboratory and hospital discharge data from a healthcare organisation and its affiliated hospital, we examined the International Classification of Disease (ICD-9-CM) diagnosis codes assigned to hospitalised adults with culture-confirmed Campylobacter, Salmonella, or Escherichia coli O157 infections and determined the frequency of stool sample submission. Among 138 hospitalised patients with culture-confirmed infections, 43% of Campylobacter patients, 56% of Salmonella patients and 35% of E. coli O157 patients had that pathogen-specific code listed on the discharge record. Among patients without their infection listed as a diagnosis, 65% were assigned a nonspecific gastroenteritis code. Submitting a specimen for culture ⩾3 days before discharge was significantly associated with having the pathogen-specific diagnosis listed. Of 6181 patients assigned a nonspecific gastroenteritis code, 69% had submitted a stool sample for bacterial culture. This study can be used to understand differences and adjust for the underreporting and underdiagnosed of Campylobacter, Salmonella and E. coli O157 in hospital discharge and surveillance data, respectively.

Dengue is the fastest spreading mosquito-transmitted disease in the world. In China, Guangzhou City is believed to be the most important epicenter of dengue outbreaks although the transmission patterns are still poorly understood. We developed an autoregressive integrated moving average model incorporating external regressors to examine the association between the monthly number of locally acquired dengue infections and imported cases, mosquito densities, temperature and precipitation in Guangzhou. In multivariate analysis, imported cases and minimum temperature (both at lag 0) were both associated with the number of locally acquired infections (P < 0.05). This multivariate model performed best, featuring the lowest fitting root mean squared error (RMSE) (0.7520), AIC (393.7854) and test RMSE (0.6445), as well as the best effect in model validation for testing outbreak with a sensitivity of 1.0000, a specificity of 0.7368 and a consistency rate of 0.7917. Our findings suggest that imported cases and minimum temperature are two key determinants of dengue local transmission in Guangzhou. The modelling method can be used to predict dengue transmission in non-endemic countries and to inform dengue prevention and control strategies.

Influenza epidemics are monitored using influenza-like illness (ILI) data reported by health-care professionals. Timely detection of the onset of epidemics is often performed by applying a statistical method on weekly ILI incidence estimates with a large range of methods used worldwide. However, performance evaluation and comparison of these algorithms is hindered by: (1) the absence of a gold standard regarding influenza epidemic periods and (2) the absence of consensual evaluation criteria. As of now, performance evaluations metrics are based only on sensitivity, specificity and timeliness of detection, since definitions are not clear for time-repeated measurements such as weekly epidemic detection. We aimed to evaluate several epidemic detection methods by comparing their alerts to a gold standard determined by international expert consensus. We introduced new performance metrics that meet important objective of influenza surveillance in temperate countries: to detect accurately the start of the single epidemic period each year. Evaluations are presented using ILI incidence in France between 1995 and 2011. We found that the two performance metrics defined allowed discrimination between epidemic detection methods. In the context of performance detection evaluation, other metrics used commonly than the standard could better achieve the needs of real-time influenza surveillance.

Analysing temporal patterns in foodborne illness is important to designing and implementing effective food safety measures. The reported incidence of illness due to Salmonella in the USA. Foodborne Diseases Active Surveillance Network (FoodNet) sites has exhibited no declining trend since 1996; however, there have been significant annual trends among principal Salmonella serotypes, which may exhibit complex seasonal patterns. Data from the original FoodNet sites and penalised cubic B-spline regression are used to estimate temporal patterns in the reported incidence of illness for the top three Salmonella serotypes during 1996–2014. Our results include 95% confidence bands around the estimated annual and monthly curves for each serotype. The results show that Salmonella serotype Typhimurium exhibits a statistically significant declining annual trend and seasonality (P < 0.001) marked by peaks in late summer and early winter. Serotype Enteritidis exhibits a significant annual trend with a higher incidence in later years and seasonality (P < 0.001) marked by a peak in late summer. Serotype Newport exhibits no significant annual trend with significant seasonality (P < 0.001) marked by a peak in late summer.

Retrospective data evaluated increases in advanced medical support for children with medically attended acute respiratory illness (MAARI) during influenza outbreak periods (IOP). Advanced support included hospitalisation, intensive care unit admission, or mechanical ventilation, for children aged 0–17 years hospitalised in Maryland's 50 acute-care hospitals over 12 influenza seasons. Weekly numbers of positive influenza tests in the Maryland area defined IOP for each season as the fewest consecutive weeks, including the peak week containing at least 85% of positive tests with a 2-week buffer on either side of the IOP. Peak IOP (PIOP) was defined as four consecutive weeks containing the peak week with the most number of positive influenza tests. Off-PIOP was defined as the ‘shoulder’ weeks during each IOP. Non-influenza season (NIS) was the remaining weeks of that study season. Rate ratios of mean daily MAARI-related admissions resulting in advanced medical support outcomes during PIOP or Off-PIOP were compared with the NIS and were significantly elevated for all 12 study seasons combined. The results suggest that influenza outbreaks are associated with increased advanced medical support utilisation by children with MAARI. We feel that this data may help preparedness for severe influenza epidemics or pandemic.

Extensively drug-resistant (XDR) tuberculosis (TB) poses a threat to public health due to its complicated, expensive and often unsuccessful treatment. A cluster of three XDR TB cases was detected among foreign medical students of a Romanian university. The contact investigations included tuberculin skin testing or interferon gamma release assay, chest X-ray, sputum smear microscopy, culture, drug susceptibility testing, genotyping and whole-genome sequencing (WGS), and were addressed to students, personnel of the university, family members or other close contacts of the cases. These investigations increased the total number of cases to seven. All confirmed cases shared a very similar WGS profile. Two more cases were epidemiologically linked, but no laboratory confirmation exists. Despite all the efforts done, the source of the outbreak was not identified, but the transmission was controlled. The investigation was conducted by a team including epidemiologists and microbiologists from five countries (Finland, Israel, Romania, Sweden and the UK) and from the European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control. Our report shows how countries can collaborate to control the spread of XDR TB by exchanging information about cases and their contacts to enable identification of additional cases and transmission and to perform the source investigation.

The goal of this study was to analyse the spatial pattern of tuberculosis (TB) mortality using different approaches, namely: mortality rates (MR), spatial relative risks (RR) and Bayesian rates (Global and Local) and their association with human development index (HDI), Global and its three dimensions: education, longevity and income. An ecological study was developed in Curitiba, Brazil based on data from Mortality Information System (2008–2014). Spatial scan statistics were used to compute RR and identify high-risk clusters. Bivariate Local Indicator of Spatial Associations was used to assess associations. MR ranged between 0 and 25.24/100.000 with a mean (standard deviation) of 1.07 (2.66). Corresponding values for spatial RR were 0–27.46, 1.2 (2.99) and for Bayesian rates (Global and Local) were 0.49–1.66, 0.90 (0.19) and 0–6.59, 0.98 (0.80). High-risk clusters were identified for all variables, except for HDI-income and Global Bayesian rate. Significant negative spatial relations were found between MR and income; between RR and HDI global, longevity and income; and Bayesian rates with all variables. Some areas presented different patterns: low social development/low risk and high risk/high development. These results demonstrate that social development variables should be considered, in mortality due TB.