The aim was to estimate the incidence of Mycobacterium tuberculosis (Mtb) infection in health-care workers (HCWs) in Japan. We repeated cross-sectional surveys of HCWs with QuantiFERON®-TB Gold (QFT-G) in 2003, 2005 and 2007 at a hospital with tuberculosis (TB) wards, and 311 HCWs who underwent QFT-G testing two or three times were included in the study. Five HCWs (1·8%) converted from negative to positive. Incidence of new TB infection was estimated to be 0·6/100 person-years by the CDC's definition. Thirteen positive persons (41%) reverted from positive to negative. Multivariable logistic regression analysis identified a significant association between QFT-G conversion and working in TB wards. The IFN-γ levels of all but two subjects with reverting or converting QFT-G results were close to the test's cut-off. The incidence of Mtb infection in HCWs at our hospital was higher than that estimated for the general population in Japan. Criteria for defining QFT-G conversion and reversion need further investigation considering the high proportion of reversion, as the incidence of infection would have changed if we had applied other definitions.

In developing countries, vaccination against highly pathogenic avian influenza subtype H5N1 (HPAI) in free-range poultry flocks is usually implemented as periodic campaigns and newborn chicks are generally not vaccinated by farmers between vaccination passes. The demographic population turnover leads to a continuous decrease in the population immunity rate (PIR) over time. We present a simple Leslie matrix model for estimating population turnover and PIR dynamics in a hypothetical small-size vaccinated free-range poultry population. Four different vaccination scenarios were identified assuming necessary procedures to achieve immunity. The results indicate that high levels of population immunity are difficult to sustain. Assuming an animal immunity response of 80% after vaccination and a constant population size, PIR 4 months after vaccination was ⩽30% in all the scenarios. Predictions averaged over time showed mean PIR between 36% and 48%, which is below the population immunity thresholds for eradication approximated from R0 estimates.

Multidrug-resistant isolates of Acinetobacter baumannii from New York City generally belong to one of three ribotypes. To assess the accuracy of ribotyping, the relatedness of representative isolates was further assessed by rep-PCR, pulsed-field gel electrophoresis (PFGE), and DNA sequencing of five genes potentially associated with antimicrobial resistance (ampC, ompA, adeB, adeR, and abeM). The isolates fell into several major groups. The first group shared the same ribotype and had common mutations affecting OmpA, AdeR, and AbeM, but consisted of two subtypes with distinctive rep-PCR and PFGE patterns and ampC mutations. The second and third groups shared common alterations in OmpA, AdeR, and AbeM, but had distinct ribotype, rep-PCR, and PFGE patterns. The resistant isolates were unrelated to the β-lactam susceptible isolates. Many of the resistant strains shared OmpA and AdeB patterns observed in several European clonal groups. Further development of a multilocus sequencing typing scheme will help determine if multidrug-resistant isolates from diverse geographic areas are indeed ancestrally related.

Some European countries decided to include human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccines in national immunization schedules. In order to help decision makers choose the best vaccination policy for females, a decisional model has been developed. The study was performed from the National Health Service perspective. Several hypotheses of multi-cohort vaccination policies were compared. ‘Potentially avoidable infections’ were chosen as the outcome. The model envisioned a short-term scenario (2008–2011). The best policy was that of vaccinating 12-year-olds and, a year later, those aged 14–16 years; the most expensive strategy was that of vaccinating 12-year-old females and, after 1 year, vaccinating those aged 15, 18 and 25 years. The sensitivity analysis showed that coverage rate has a great effect on the cost of avoidable infections. The study offers stake-holders an important datum-point for the choice of the best HPV policy vaccination in the short term. Indeed, it could generate interesting savings for the National Health Service and a rapid HPV immunization of young girls.

A prospective cohort study estimated the incidence of hepatitis C virus (HCV) in drug injectors in South Wales (UK). In total, 286/481 eligible seronegative individuals were followed up after approximately 12 months. Dried blood spot samples were collected and tested for anti-HCV antibody and behavioural data were collected at baseline and follow-up. HCV incidence was 5·9/100 person-years [95% confidence interval (CI) 3·4–9·5]. HCV incidence was predicted by community size [incident rate ratio (IRR) 6·6, 95% CI 2·11–20·51, P=0·001], homelessness (IRR 2·9, 95% CI 1·02–8·28, P=0·047) and sharing injecting equipment (IRR 12·7, 95% CI 1·62–99·6, P=0·015). HCV incidence was reduced in individuals in opiate substitution treatment (IRR 0·34, 95% CI 0·12–0·99, P=0·047). In order to reduce follow-up bias we used multiple imputation of missing data using switching regression; after imputation estimated HCV incidence was 8·5/100 person-years (95% CI 5·4–12·7). HCV incidence varies with community size, equipment sharing and homelessness are associated with increased HCV incidence and opiate substitution treatment may be protective against HCV.

One of the central tenets of modern infectious disease epidemiology is that an understanding of heterogeneities, both in host demography and transmission, allows control to be efficiently optimized. Due to the strong interactions present, households are one of the most important heterogeneities to consider, both in terms of predicting epidemic severity and as a target for intervention. We consider these effects in the context of pandemic influenza in Great Britain, and find that there is significant local (ward-level) variation in the basic reproductive ratio, with some regions predicted to suffer 50% faster growth rate of infection than the mean. Childhood vaccination was shown to be highly effective at controlling an epidemic, generally outperforming random vaccination and substantially reducing the variation between regions; only nine out of over 10 000 wards did not obey this rule and these can be identified as demographically atypical regions. Since these benefits of childhood vaccination are a product of correlations between household size and number of dependent children in the household, our results are qualitatively robust for a variety of disease scenarios.

There is a strong relationship between socioeconomic status (SES) and health outcomes in the United States, although the mechanisms are poorly understood. Increasing evidence points to links between lifelong exposure to infectious disease and subsequent chronic disease. Exposure and susceptibility to infections may be one way SES affects long-term health, although little population-based research to date has examined social patterning of infections in the United States. This paper tests the relationship between income, education, race/ethnicity and seroprevalence of cytomegalovirus (CMV) infection at different ages in a representative sample of the US population, and tests potential mediators for these relationships. The study finds significant racial and socioeconomic disparities in CMV seroprevalence beginning at early ages and persisting into middle age. Potential exposures do not explain the relationship between SES and CMV positivity. Because reactivation of latent CMV infections may contribute to chronic disease and immune decline later in life, future research should determine the exposure or susceptibility pathways responsible for these disparities in the prevalence of CMV infection.

The prevalence of Bartonella infection was studied in 312 cats and 350 dogs in the Bangkok metropolitan areas, Thailand, between June 2001 and February 2003. Bartonella was isolated from 47 (16·3%) of 288 stray cats, but from none of the 24 pet cats studied. Of the 47 Bartonella-positive cats, 45 animals were infected with only B. henselae, one was infected with only B. clarridgeiae, and one with both B. henselae and B. clarridgeiae. 16S rRNA typing showed that 40 cats were infected with B. henselae type I, four with B. henselae type II, and one with both B. henselae types I and II. These results indicated that B. henselae, especially type I, was prevalent in stray cats that constituted a large Bartonella reservoir in Bangkok. B. clarridgeiae was isolated for the first time in Asia from one of 350 dogs.

Campylobacter jejuni of different subtypes were identified in chicken, dairy cattle and diarrhoea patients in China from 2005 to 2006, using multiplex PCR and RFLP. The results indicated that, of the three types of samples, C. jejuni was most frequently detected in poultry of the three types of samples, with an average isolation rate of up to 18·61% and a flock contamination rate of 86·67%. The average incidence of C. jejuni in overall cattle and environmental samples, milk cows, heifers and diarrhoea patients was 7·77, 5·02, 8·70 and 4·84%, respectively. A higher prevalence was detected in outpatients than ward patients (P<0·01), and in patients aged <7 years than in older patients (P<0·01). The 265 isolates of C. jejuni were classified into 20 distinct types by PCR–RFLP analysis of the flaA gene, with the genotype distribution in humans overlapping that in poultry and cattle. This suggests that certain C. jejuni strains circulate between humans and domestic animals such as cattle and poultry.

Diarrhoeal illnesses are the most frequent of notifiable diseases in Aragon. Physicians notify diarrhoea cases with presumed infectious origin on a weekly basis. Following an increase in 2005–2006, we aimed to identify the responsible organism(s) in order to inform control measures. We described seasonality of diarrhoea notifications for 1998–2004 and 2005–2006. We calculated correlations between diarrhoea notifications and enteric pathogens diagnosed in two Aragonese laboratories, and applied linear regression using coefficients of determination (r2). In 2005–2006 the winter peak of diarrhoea notifications increased from 2494 to 3357 weekly cases (34·6%) and the peak in Rotavirus diagnoses from 15 to 39 weekly cases. The correlation of diarrhoea notifications with Rotavirus was 0·05 in 1998–2004 and 0·42 in 2005–2006. The model for 1998–2004 included Salmonella enterica, Giardia lamblia and Clostridium difficile (r2=0·08) and for 2005–2006 Rotavirus and Astrovirus (r2=0·24). Our results suggest that Rotavirus contributed to the increase of diarrhoea notifications. We recommend determining the disease burden of Rotavirus in order to guide vaccination policies.

The European Sero-Epidemiology Network 2 (ESEN2) aimed to compare serological results of vaccine-preventable diseases across Europe. To ensure direct inter-country comparability of hepatitis A virus antibody (anti-HAV) measurements, a standardization panel of 150 sera was developed by a designated reference laboratory and tested by participating national laboratories using assays of choice; each country's results were subsequently regressed against those of the reference laboratory. Quantitatively, the assays were generally highly correlated (R2>0·90). Nevertheless, qualitative comparisons indicated that results obtained with different assays may differ despite the usage of well-established international and local standards. To a great extent standardization successfully alleviated such differences. The generated standardization equations will be used to convert national serological results into common units to enable direct international comparisons of HAV seroprevalence data. The results of this study are expected to contribute to the evaluation and potential improvement of the currently employed immunization strategies for hepatitis in Europe.

A large outbreak of Yersinia pseudotuberculosis O:1 infection affected over 400 children from 23 schools and 5 day-care centres in two municipalities in southern Finland in August–September, 2006. A retrospective cohort study conducted in a large school centre showed that the outbreak was strongly associated with the consumption of grated carrots served at a school lunch. The risk of illness increased with the amount of carrots eaten. Poor quality carrots grown the previous year had been delivered to the school kitchens in the two municipalities affected. In the patients' samples and in the environmental samples collected from the carrot distributor's storage facility, identical serotypes and genotypes of Y. pseudotuberculosis were found, but the original source and the mechanism of the contamination of the carrots remained unclear. Outbreaks of Y. pseudotuberculosis linked to fresh produce have been detected repeatedly in Finland. To prevent future outbreaks, instructions in improved hygiene practices on the handling of raw carrots have been issued to farmers, vegetable-processing plants and institutional kitchens.

The aim of the study was to measure the positive predictive value (PPV) and sensitivity of operational case definitions of 13 syndromes in a surveillance system based on the Emergency online database of the Lazio region. The PPVs were calculated using electronic emergency department (ED) medical records and subsequent hospitalizations to ascertain the cases. Sensitivity was calculated using a modified capture–recapture method. The number of cases that fulfilled the case definition criteria in the 2004 database ranged from 27 320 for gastroenteritis to three for haemorrhagic diarrhoea. The PPVs ranged from 99·3 to 20; sepsis, meningitis-like and coma were below 50%. The estimated sensitivity ranged from 90% for coma to 22% for haemorrhagic diarrhoea. Syndromes such as gastroenteritis, where the signs, symptoms, and exposure history provide immediate diagnostic implications fit this surveillance system better than others such as haemorrhagic diarrhoea, where symptoms are not evident and a more precise diagnosis is needed.

Logistic regression, supported by other statistical analyses was used to explore the possible association of risk factors with the fluoroquinolone (FQ)-resistance status of 108 pig finisher farms in Great Britain. The farms were classified as ‘affected’ or ‘not affected’ by FQ-resistant E. coli or Campylobacter spp. on the basis of isolation of organisms from faecal samples on media containing 1 mg/l FQ. The use of FQ was the most important factor associated with finding resistant E. coli and/or Campylobacter, which were found on 79% (FQ-resistant E. coli) and 86% (FQ-resistant Campylobacter) of farms with a history of FQ use. However, resistant bacteria were also found on 19% (FQ-resistant E. coli) and 54% (FQ-resistant Campylobacter) of farms with no history of FQ use. For FQ-resistant E. coli, biosecurity measures may be protective and there was strong seasonal variation, with more farms found affected when sampled in the summer. For FQ-resistant Campylobacter, the buying-in of grower stock may increase risk and good on-farm hygiene may be protective. The findings suggest that resistant organisms, particularly Campylobacter, may spread between pig farms.

Shiga toxin-producing Escherichia coli (STEC) can cause serious disease in human beings. Ruminants are considered to be the main reservoir of human STEC infections. However, STEC have also been isolated from other domestic animals, wild mammals and birds. We describe a cross-sectional study of wild birds in northern England to determine the prevalence of E. coli-containing genes that encode Shiga toxins (stx1 and stx2) and intimin (eae), important virulence determinants of STEC associated with human disease. Multivariable logistic regression analysis identified unique risk factors for the occurrence of each virulence gene in wild bird populations. The results of our study indicate that while wild birds are unlikely to be direct sources of STEC infections, they do represent a potential reservoir of virulence genes. This, coupled with their ability to act as long-distance vectors of STEC, means that wild birds have the potential to influence the spread and evolution of STEC.

We present the frequency and the nature of contact incidents of the Serotine bat, Eptesicus serotinus, with humans and with companion animals (specifically cats and dogs), in The Netherlands between 2000 and 2005. Out of 17 bats in bite contact with humans, five tested positive for European bat lyssavirus (EBLV) type 1a. Cats had the most numerous contacts with bats (49 times) but a relatively low number of these bats were EBLV positive (six times). We estimated that the average incidence of human bat rabies infection might be between once per year and once per 700 years, depending mainly on the number of infectious viral particles in bat saliva. The risk of bat rabies is higher between April and October, and in the northern half of the country. This is the first study in Europe describing the risk of human bat rabies after bat contact incidents.

The characteristics of 359 group A streptococcal (GAS) isolates collected from Chinese paediatric patients in two periods (1993–1994, 2005–2006) were studied. Isolates were assigned to emm types and assayed for eight superantigen (SAg) genes (speA, speC, speH, speI, speG, speJ, ssa, SMEZ). Types emm1 and emm12 were consistently the most prevalent during the two periods, while others varied in frequency. GAS isolates carrying six or more SAg genes increased from 46·53% (1993–1994) to 78·39% (2005–2006); ssa, speH and speJ genes (P<0·05) increased but speA declined (P<0·05). SAg gene profiles were closely associated with the emm type, but strains of the same emm type sometimes carried different SAg genes in the two periods. No significant difference in emm-type distribution and SAg gene profile was noted between isolates from different diseases. These data may contribute towards the development of a GAS vaccine in China.

This study investigates whether a child's risk of rotavirus diarrhoea is associated with season of birth in England and Wales, countries where rotavirus infections are highly seasonal. Poisson regression models were fitted to weekly counts of laboratory-confirmed rotavirus infections from children aged <5 years born between 1998 and 2007. In the first year of life, the risk of a laboratory-confirmed rotavirus infection was significantly higher for children born in summer compared with winter [relative risk (RR) 2·13, 95% confidence interval (CI) 2·07–2·19]. In the second to fifth years of life, the pattern reversed (second year of life: RR 0·73, 95% CI 0·71–0·75). The cumulative risk up to age 5 years remained significantly higher for children born in summer compared with winter due to the increased risk for summer births during their first year of life. Maternal immunity and age-specific levels of exposure to rotavirus could explain our findings.

Numerous studies have been published on human metapneumovirus (HMPV) infection, but few have been population based. The main aim of this study was to estimate the incidence rate of hospitalization for community-acquired HMPV infection in infants and children aged <3 years. Between July 2004 and June 2007, 796 episodes (742 patients) of community-acquired acute respiratory infection were hospitalized. HMPV was detected in 90 episodes (11·3%). Fifty-nine episodes occurred in infants aged <1 year. The mean length of hospital stay was 6·2 days (range 2–31 days). Thirteen children required admission to the intensive care unit. Viral co-infections were detected in 46 episodes (51·1%). The incidence rate of hospitalization per 1000 inhabitants was 2·6 (95% CI 2·1–3·2), lower than that for respiratory syncytial virus, but higher than that observed for the influenza and parainfluenza viruses. HMPV is a major respiratory pathogen that leads to a high hospitalization rate.

Despite increasing migration, the impact of HIV epidemics from Central and Eastern Europe (C&EE) on the UK HIV epidemic remains small. C&EE-born adults comprised 1·2% of adults newly diagnosed with HIV in the UK between 2000 and 2007. Most C&EE-born women probably acquired their infection heterosexually in C&EE. In contrast, 59% of C&EE-born men reported sex with men, half of whom probably acquired their infection in the UK. Previously undiagnosed HIV prevalence in C&EE-born sexual-health-clinic attendees was low (2007, 0·5%) as was overall HIV prevalence in C&EE-born women giving birth in England (2007, <0·1%). The high proportion of men who have sex with men (MSM) suggests under-reporting of this group in C&EE HIV statistics and/or migration of MSM to the UK. In addition to reducing HIV transmission in injecting drug users, preventative efforts aimed at C&EE-born MSM both within their country of origin and the UK are required.