To gain insight into pertussis disease dynamics, we studied age-specific long-term periodicity and seasonality of pertussis in The Netherlands. Hierarchical time-series models were used to analyse the monthly reported pertussis incidence in January 1996–June 2006 by age group. The incidence of pertussis showed a slightly increasing long-term trend with highest incidence rates seen in 1996, 1999, 2001 and 2004. For all age groups the annual peak incidence was found in August, except for the 13–18 years age group where the peak occurred in November. Monthly trends in adults showed high correlation with trends in age groups 0–4 years (0·94) and 5–12 years (0·92). We found no evidence for a relationship between annual rises in pertussis and the opening of schools. Concurrent annual fluctuations of pertussis incidence in adults and infants suggest frequent transmission within and between these age groups. Studying trends offers insight into transmission dynamics and may facilitate decisions on future vaccination strategies.

We analysed long-term epidemiological trends in influenza-like illness (ILI) in The Netherlands and used an ecological analysis to estimate its relationship with age, influenza vaccination, and virological aspects. This study used data from weekly ILI consultation reports from sentinel general practitioners (1986/1987 to 2006/2007), virological data from sentinel ILI patients (1992/1993 to 2006/2007), and data for influenza vaccine uptake (1991–2005). The incidence of ILI consultations, although varying during the study period, was estimated to decrease in the total population by 12·2/10 000 persons each season (95% CI 8·6–15·9). Uptake of influenza vaccination in people aged ⩾65 years (elderly) increased from 28% in 1991 to >70% since 1997. ILI incidence in the elderly declined by 1·7/10 000 persons (P=0·05) per percentage vaccine uptake per season. The decline in ILI incidence over the last 20 years could be related to the increased vaccine uptake. However, insufficient data were present to assess the impact of other potential contributing factors, such as diminished fitness of influenza viruses and changes in consulting behaviour.

Livestock herbivores are at risk of inter- and intra-specific exposure to parasites/pathogens via the faecal–oral route during grazing. Each contact between livestock and faeces in the environment is a potential parasite/pathogen transmission event. Cattle grazing contact with faeces varies in relation to the species depositing the faeces and the distribution of the faeces. We used a foraging model to simulate the grazing behaviour of beef cattle in two grazing systems to compare the relative inter-specific and intra-specific exposure risks to parasites/pathogens. Overall, there is a greater level of intra- vs. inter-specific risk via the faecal–oral route. However, under certain conditions, particularly for microparasite infections, e.g. paratuberculosis in rabbits and bovine tuberculosis in badgers, wildlife may pose a significant exposure risk to parasites/pathogens. These risks can be enhanced when cattle are first turned out onto pasture and in situations where intra-specific variations in wildlife behaviour result in more dispersed defecation patterns.

Recent information on epidemiology and management of herpes zoster (HZ) and post-herpetic neuralgia (PHN), a painful complication of HZ, is scarce. The objective of this study was to document the burden of HZ and PHN in the United Kingdom. This retrospective analysis of the UK General Practice Research Database aimed to estimate HZ incidence and proportion of HZ patients developing PHN and to assess management costs in immunocompetent individuals aged ⩾50 years. A cohort of 27 225 HZ patients was selected, corresponding to an incidence of 5·23/1000 person-years. Respectively 19·5% and 13·7% of patients developed PHN at least 1 and 3 months after HZ diagnosis. Mean direct cost was £103 per HZ patient and £341 and £397 per PHN episode (1- and 3-month definition respectively). Both HZ and PHN costs increased markedly with pain severity. This study confirms that HZ and PHN are frequent and costly diseases in the United Kingdom.

Community-associated methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus (CA-MRSA) with the type IV staphylococcal chromosomal cassette mec (SCCmec) is rarely reported as being acquired in hospital. We report a hospital outbreak, in Grampian, Scotland, of eight cases of skin and soft-tissue infections due to such a strain. All patients had been in the labour, delivery and maternity units of a small community hospital during a 7-month period. Typing by pulsed-field gel electrophoresis showed the isolates to be a single strain closely related to the USA800 lineage (paediatric clone) and additional typing confirmed it as ST5-MRSA-IV. Genes for exfoliative toxin A (ETA) and enterotoxin D were detected by PCR in all the isolates although none carried the Panton–Valentine leukocidin gene. Region-wide surveillance of over 6000 MRSA isolates collected from 1998 to 2004 showed that 95 (1·6%) were closely related to the outbreak strain although only 60 carried the ETA gene. The strain has not been seen elsewhere in Scotland.

In 2006, in The Netherlands, an outbreak of Salmonella Typhimurium phage type 561 (STM DT7, corresponding to the rare DT7 in the international typing scheme) was detected, accumulating to over 200 cases. By telephone interviews, data were collected from all laboratory-confirmed cases. In addition, in August 2006, a case-control study was performed in a subset of cases. Environmental and microbiological investigation was performed on a suspected dairy farm. In the case-control study (51 cases, 105 matched controls), hard cheese purchased from a farm, specifically farm X, and from a market stall were found to be associated with infection. The dairy production room of farm X tested STM DT7-positive in August. However, it was only in November, after earlier unsuccessful attempts, that a low-level contamination was confirmed in the hard farmhouse cheese, triggering control measures. A timely and adequate response was hampered during this outbreak for several reasons. Measures for improvement in handling future similar incidents are discussed.

A total of 90 rotavirus-positive faecal specimens collected from patients hospitalized with diarrhoea in 1990–1994 (n=77) and 2000–2002 (n=13) were investigated for VP7 and VP4 genotypes. The specimens included 21 typable and 69 non-reactive or multireactive rotavirus strains as monitored by monoclonal antibody-based serotyping ELISA. Genotyping was carried out by multiplex PCR/sequencing using primers specific for both VP7 and VP4 genes. The contribution of common genotypes (G1P[8], G2P[4], G3P[8], G4P[8]) in causing rotavirus diarrhoea was 79·2% and 92·3% in the years 1990–1994 and 2000–2002, respectively, while G9P[8] infections were detected at lower levels (1·3% and 7·7%) at both time-points. There was a predominance of G1P[8] in 1990–1994 and of G2P[4] in 2000–2002. The detection of unusual rotavirus strains (G1P[6], G1P[4], G1P[19], G2P[8], G3P[4], G4P[6]) in 19·5% of the patients indicated a significant contribution of reassortants in causing diarrhoea in western India.

We investigated an outbreak of Shigella sonnei infections in Denmark and Australia associated with imported baby corn from one packing shed in Thailand. We reviewed nationwide surveillance and undertook case finding, food trace-back and microbiological investigation of human, food and environmental samples. A recall of baby corn and sugar snaps was based on descriptive epidemiological evidence. In Denmark, we undertook a retrospective cohort study in one workplace. In total, 215 cases were laboratory-confirmed in Denmark, and 12 in Australia. In a multivariable analysis, baby corn was the only independent risk factor. Antibiotic resistance and PFGE outbreak profiles in Denmark and Australia were indistinguishable, linking the outbreaks. Although we did not detect S. sonnei in baby corn, we isolated high levels of other enteric pathogens. We identified a packing shed in Thailand that supplied baby corn to Denmark and Australia, and uncovered unhygienic practices in the supply chain. This outbreak highlights the importance of international communication in linking outbreaks and pinpointing the source.

The WAIFW matrix (Who Acquires Infection From Whom) is a central parameter in modelling the spread of infectious diseases. The calculation of the basic reproductive number (R0) depends on the assumptions made about the transmission within and between age groups through the structure of the WAIFW matrix and different structures might lead to different estimates for R0 and hence different estimates for the minimal immunization coverage needed for the elimination of the infection in the population. In this paper, we estimate R0 for varicella in Belgium. The force of infection is estimated from seroprevalence data using fractional polynomials and we show how the estimate of R0 is heavily influenced by the structure of the WAIFW matrix.

Vitamin D has been shown to be an important immune system regulator. Vitamin D insufficiency during winter may cause increased susceptibility to upper respiratory tract infections (URIs). To determine whether vitamin D supplementation during the winter season prevents or decreases URI symptoms, 162 adults were randomized to receive 50 μg vitamin D3 (2000 IU) daily or matching placebo for 12 weeks. A bi-weekly questionnaire was used to record the incidence and severity of URI symptoms. There was no difference in the incidence of URIs between the vitamin D and placebo groups (48 URIs vs. 50 URIs, respectively, P=0·57). There was no difference in the duration or severity of URI symptoms between the vitamin D and placebo groups [5·4±4·8 days vs. 5·3±3·1 days, respectively, P=0·86 (95% CI for the difference in duration −1·8 to 2·1)]. The mean 25-hydroxyvitamin D level at baseline was similar in both groups (64·3±25·4 nmol/l in the vitamin D group; 63·0±25·8 nmol/l in the placebo group; n.s.). After 12 weeks, 25-hydroxyvitamin D levels increased significantly to 88·5±23·2 nmol/l in the vitamin D group, whereas there was no change in vitamin D levels in the placebo group. There was no benefit of vitamin D3 supplementation in decreasing the incidence or severity of symptomatic URIs during winter. Further studies are needed to determine the role of vitamin D in infection.

Infections by Campylobacter spp. are a major cause of gastrointestinal disease in the United Kingdom. Most cases are associated with the consumption of chicken that has become contaminated during production. We investigated the epidemiology of Campylobacter spp. in chickens in a 3-year longitudinal study of flocks reared on 30 farms in the United Kingdom. We used Generalized Linear Mixed Effect Models (GLMM) to investigate putative risk factors associated with incidence and prevalence of flock infection arising from farm and flock management and local environmental conditions during rearing. We used survival analysis to investigate infection events and associated risk factors over the course of the study using two marginal models – the independent increment approach, which assumed that individual infection events were independent; and a conditional approach, which assumed that events were conditional on those preceding. Models of flock prevalence were highly overdispersed suggesting that infection within flocks was aggregated. The key predictors of flock infection identified from the GLMM analyses were mean temperature and mean rainfall in the month of slaughter and also the presence of natural ventilation. Mean temperature in the month of slaughter was also a significant predictor of flock infection, although the analyses suggested that the risk in flocks increased in a unimodal way in relation to temperature, peaking at 12°C. The extent of pad burn was also identified as a predictor in these analyses. We conclude that predicting prevalence within flocks with linear modelling approaches is likely to be difficult, but that it may be possible to predict when flocks are at risk of Campylobacter infection. This is a key first step in managing disease and reducing the risks posed to the human food chain.

The measurement and analysis of common recurrent conditions such as diarrhoea, respiratory infections or fever pose methodological challenges with regard to case definition, disease surveillance and statistical analysis. In this paper we describe a flexible and robust model that can generate simulated longitudinal datasets for a range of recurrent infections, reflecting the stochastic processes that underpin the data collected in the field. It can be used to evaluate and compare alternative disease definitions, surveillance strategies and statistical methods under ‘controlled conditions’. Parameters in the model include: characterizing the distributions of the individual disease incidence and the duration of disease episodes; allowing the average disease duration to depend on an individual's number of episodes (simulating a correlation between incidence and duration); making the individual risk of disease depend on the occurrence of previous episodes (simulating autocorrelation of successive episodes); finally, incorporating seasonal variation of disease.

The aim of this study was to determine the burden, management and outcomes of rotavirus infection in young children presenting to a tertiary paediatric hospital in Sydney, Australia. All laboratory-confirmed cases of rotavirus in children aged <5 years were identified and medical records reviewed. In 2004, 80 children aged <5 years presented to the hospital with rotavirus gastroenteritis confirmed by stool testing. Infants aged <24 months comprised 75% of cases, with more males than females affected. Most children (86%) acquired rotavirus infection in the community, with a mean length of hospital admission of 2·3 days. There were eight cases of nosocomial infection at a rate of 3/10 000 admissions. The rates of intravenous fluid management (46%) and antibiotic use (28%) were high, reflecting the severity of disease presenting in a hospital setting. These data will help inform the assessment of the recently introduced rotavirus vaccination programme in Australia.

We investigated the percentage of dogs that could be vaccinated against rabies by conducting a pilot campaign in N'Djaména, Chad. Owners were charged US$4.13 per dog vaccinated, and 24% of all dogs in the three city districts covered by the campaign were vaccinated. Total campaign costs were US$7623, resulting in an average of US$19.40 per vaccinated dog. This is five times more expensive than the cost per animal vaccinated during a previous free vaccination campaign for dog-owners, conducted in the same districts. The free campaign, which vaccinated 2605 more dogs than this campaign, cost an additional US$1.45 per extra dog vaccinated. Campaigns in which owners are charged for vaccinations result in lower vaccination rates than in free campaigns. Public health officials can use these results when evaluating the costs and benefits of subsidizing dog rabies vaccination programmes.

Hepatitis C is a global health problem and in the UK seroprevalence studies have mainly concentrated on specific high-risk groups. The aim of this study was to determine changes in the prevalence of antibody to hepatitis C virus in England using residual specimens collected between 1986 and 2000 reflecting the general population. A cross-sectional study design using a convenience collection of serum specimens from adult patients submitted to laboratories in the years 1986, 1991, 1996 and 2000 from a total of 19 laboratories around England were investigated. The main outcome was to determine anti-HCV prevalence and the average incidence occurring between 1986 and 2000 and factors associated with infection. Multivariable analysis of results from all years showed there was a significant difference in prevalence between males and females (P<0·001), birth cohort (P<0·001) and by health region (P<0·001). An average of 0·72% (95% CI 0–1·65%) of those susceptible to HCV born between 1950 and 1970 were estimated to have acquired the infection between 1986 and 2000. Analysis of this convenience serum collection suggests that HCV prevalence is low in the general population, and is associated with period of birth, gender and health region. There was evidence to support a low incidence of HCV infection in those born between 1950 and 1970 over the period 1986–2000 which, at the population level, equated to a substantial burden of infection (~106 000 persons). Continued surveillance and prevention targeted at injecting drug users are essential for the control of hepatitis C in the UK.

During 22–24 August 2004, an outbreak of Shigella sonnei infection affected air travellers who departed from Hawaii. Forty-seven passengers with culture-confirmed shigellosis and 116 probable cases who travelled on 12 flights dispersed to Japan, Australia, 22 US states, and American Samoa. All flights were served by one caterer. Pulsed-field gel electrophoresis of all 29 S. sonnei isolates yielded patterns that matched within one band. Food histories and menu reviews identified raw carrot served onboard as the likely vehicle of infection. Attack rates for diarrhoea on three surveyed flights with confirmed cases were 54% (110/204), 32% (20/63), and 12% (8/67). A total of 2700 meals were served on flights with confirmed cases; using attack rates observed on surveyed flights, we estimated that 300–1500 passengers were infected. This outbreak illustrates the risk of rapid, global spread of illness from a point-source at a major airline hub.