Coronavirus disease-2019 (COVID-19) elicits a range of different responses in patients and can manifest into mild to very severe cases in different individuals, depending on many factors. We aimed to establish a prediction model of severe risk in COVID-19 patients, to help clinicians achieve early prevention, intervention and aid them in choosing effective therapeutic strategy. We selected confirmed COVID-19 patients who were admitted to First Hospital of Changsha city between 29 January and 15 February 2020 and collected their clinical data. Multivariate logical regression was used to identify the factors associated with severe risk. These factors were incorporated into the nomogram to establish the model. The ROC curve, calibration plot and decision curve were used to assess the performance of the model. A total of 228 patients were enrolled and 33 (14.47%) patients developed severe pneumonia. Univariate and multivariate analysis showed that shortness of breath, fatigue, creatine kinase, lymphocytes and h CRP were independent factors for severe risk in COVID-19 patients. Incorporating age, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) and these factors, the nomogram achieved good concordance indexes of 0.89 [95% confidence interval (CI) 0.832–0.949] and well-fitted calibration plot curves (Hosmer–Lemeshow test: P = 0.97). The model provided superior net benefit when clinical decision thresholds were between 15% and 85% predicted risk. Using the model, clinicians can intervene early, improve therapeutic effects and reduce the severity of COVID-19, thus ensuring more targeted and efficient use of medical resources.

An outbreak of food poisoning which occurred at Brighton in November, 1917, showed several features of unusual interest which makes its publication of value. While the epidemiological inquires and pathological investigations were carried out separately a coherent narrative is best obtained by combined presentation. The pathological investigations were carried out for, and at the request of, the Local Government Board.

The outbreak occurred in the Royal Sussex County Hospital which at the time contained 369 residents, 227 being patients and 142 staff. Twenty-eight persons suffered from food poisoning, 24 of whom were patients and 4 members of the staff. Two deaths occurred but both were patients already suffering from severe diseases.

Compared with 20, or even 10, years ago our present knowledge of food poisoning outbreaks is extensive and in certain directions fairly complete. In spite of this greatly extended knowledge there are some aspects in regard to which we are yet lacking in fundamental information. This is particularly the case as to the precise sources of infection. It may be accepted as a demonstrated fact that most outbreaks of food poisoning are due to infection of the food eaten with one or other member of the Gaertner group of bacilli. The present paper is only concerned with the outbreaks associated with this group of organisms. A study of the individual outbreaks usually supplies evidence which definitely incriminates a certain article of food, and for most of the recent outbreaks further evidence is forthcoming that this has been infected with one or other member of the Gaertner group of bacilli. Tracing the matter a step further back it is only in a quite small minority of outbreaks that the recorded facts show how the food has become so infected. In a proportion of cases, perhaps more than half for continental recorded outbreaks but in only a small fraction of the British outbreaks, it is true that definite evidence is forthcoming showing that the meat was derived from an animal itself suffering from general or local disease caused by Gaertner group bacilli. Even, however, for these cases our recorded knowledge ceases with this information, and we do not know how these animals became infected or whether they represent isolated cases or are part of widespread epidemics amongst the animals affected.

No hygienist has any doubt that diseases of the intestinal tract, especially the enteric fevers, may be spread by the consumption of shellfish. Clinical experience, often repeated, led to this conclusion long before the bacteriologist had been able to detect the presence of the causative organism in the shellfish. In fact it is only within the past year that definite proof has been afforded by the exceedingly valuable work of Wilson (1928), who found B. typhosus in cockles taken from Belfast Lough.

Current World Health Organization (WHO) reports claim a decline in COVID-19 testing and reporting of new infections. To discuss the consequences of ignoring severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus-2 (SARS-CoV-2) infection, the endemic characteristics of the disease in 2023 with the ones estimated before using 2022 data sets are compared. The accumulated numbers of cases and deaths reported to the WHO by the 10 most infected countries and global figures were used to calculate the average daily numbers of cases DCC and deaths DDC per capita and case fatality rates (CFRs = DDC/DCC) for two periods in 2023. In some countries, the DDC values can be higher than the upper 2022 limit and exceed the seasonal influenza mortality. The increase in CFR in 2023 shows that SARS-CoV-2 infection is still dangerous. The numbers of COVID-19 cases and deaths per capita in 2022 and 2023 do not demonstrate downward trends with the increase in the percentages of fully vaccinated people and boosters. The reasons may be both rapid mutations of the coronavirus, which reduced the effectiveness of vaccines and led to a large number of re-infections, and inappropriate management.

This study examined the epidemiological and clinical characteristics of measles in Wenzhou, China. From 2000 to 2010, a total of 13271 measles cases were reported in Wenzhou, with epidemics occurring every 3-4 years. Forty-five per cent of the cases were aged <1 year and 27·2% were aged >14 years. Of 2262 hospitalized measles cases, 66·3% were diagnosed with pneumonia, and three cases died from respiratory failure. The number of measles cases of infants requiring hospitalization increased from birth to age 8 months and declined thereafter. Measurement of serum measles antibody levels in normal infants indicates that over 80% of infants in Wenzhou may be susceptible to measles by age 6 months. The existence of a sufficient pool of unvaccinated children and the decreased level of passively transferred measles antibodies in infants from vaccinated mothers contributed to the sustained transmission observed in Wenzhou.

1. The red blood corpuscles of different species have definite and distinct mean lytic points.

2. The apparent tonicity of sheep serum has no relation to the mean lytic point of the red corpuscles of that individual.

3. The apparent tonicity of sheep serum is not due to its proteins but to its lipoids.

4. The residue of sheep serum, after removal of proteins and lipoids, is sufficiently alkaline to cause lysis.

That out breaks of plague are associated with a more or less simultaneous mortality amongst rats is an observation of great antiquity. After the discovery of the bacillus by Yersin and Kitasato this concomitant disease of rats was identified as plague, and during the last twelve years the association of rat plague and human plague has been shown to be almost invariable. The relationship has been so striking that many observers who have studied the question on the spot, e.g. Yersin, Ogata, Simond, Thompson, Koch, Gaffky and many others, have arrived at the opinion that from an epidemiological point of view one must regard plague as essentially a rat-disease in which human beings may participate.

1. When fleas bit through films of Tuberculin, Vaccine Lymph, and Staphylococcus Emulsion lying upon the human skin, no inoculation was observed in 188 instances out of 195. In six of the experiments with Tuberculin, inoculation followed, which possibly was not due to the flea-bites. Controls gave positive results.

2. When the same materials were rubbed over recent flea-bites, no inoculations followed. Controls were positive.

3. A very minute dose of Tuberculin, such as might be conveyed by a flea's proboscis, will produce a recognisable reaction in a susceptible person.

4. The bearing of the results on the question of plague transmission is discussed.

The effects produced upon bacteria by environmental conditions constitute factors which until recently have been studied with but too little regard to scientific accuracy, even by the bacteriologist investigating the conditions under which pathogenic bacteria occur in nature, and whilst probably leading a saprophytic existence.

Whatever may be the final form of the theories of Ehrlich as to the constitution of the bacterial toxines and as to the essential nature of immunity there can be no doubt of the stimulus they have given and are likely to give to inquiries relating to these subjects. As the present paper is intended to give a preliminary account of some researches bearing on the reactions of certain toxines it may be useful to recall the main features of the theories in question so far as they relate to the toxines investigated.

The Salmonella group contains the organisms which are mainly responsible for outbreaks of food poisoning and the possibility of the production by these strains of bodies which are toxic, or which act as gastro-intestinal irritants, when administered by the oral route, is of practical as well as theoretical interest. This is especially the case if it can be shown that these irritant substances are heat resistant.

The villages selected for the present series of observations were Dhand and Kasel in the Arnritsar District of the Punjab. They are situated about 10 miles south-west of Amritsar City and within a distance of ¾ mile of each other. They are typical Punjab villages of about 2,000 and 4,000 inhabitants respectively.

The experiments now described were carried out in Lagos and Khartoum, and although the hoped-for end-result, the production of a sheep strain of neurovaccinia, was not realized, certain points of interest have arisen and are recorded in the hope that they may be of help to other workers concerned with vaccinia vaccine production.

The subjection of the scrotum of the dog for 10 minutes daily for 28 days to a stream of water at 39·5 40·0° C. does not materially affect the testes. It is unlikely that ordinary hot bathing affects male fecundity.

The Harbour of Poole lies a few miles to the West of Bournemouth. It has an area approximately of 10,000 acres, but there is only a very narrow passage between its waters and the open sea. The width of this bottle-neck entrance is about 250 yards. The last published Admiralty chart gives the rate of the incoming tide through this narrow entrance at 3¼ knots, and of the outgoing tide at 4 knots. The local opinion is that these official rates err on the moderate side. The rapid ebb and flow of the tides has an influence in the bacteriology of the oysters within the harbour.

Pregnancies were identified in which maternal IgG antibodies against rubella virus were not detectable by single radial haemolysis. Twenty paired maternal/cord sera were then tested for haemagglutination-inhibiting (HI) activity against rubella virus without kaolin pretreatment of the sera. In the absence of specific antibody, the HI activity observed could thus be ascribed to the effect of non-specific inhibitors. The HI activity in maternal sera was significantly (P < 0·001) higher than that in cord sera. The 20 pairs of sera were similarly tested against a bunyavirus, an alphavirus and a flavivirus, both with and without kaolin pretreatment. The results showed non-specific inhibitors were found to higher titre in maternal sera, with the difference being statistically significant (P < 0·001) for each of the three viruses.

Salmonella typhimurium strain 1566 administered to mice by the intraperitoneal route was considerably more lethal than the same dose administered subcutane-ously. This could be measured hi terms of mortality, infectivity and mean survival time of those mice that died.