This paper presents different substitution mechanisms which determine, in a theoretical framework, the conditions for long-term sustainable development. In a one-sector approach and in two versions of a multi-sector endogenous growth model, the accumulation and the substitution of man-made inputs for natural resources are analysed. Assuming man-made capital to be an output of a specific sector of the economy, the elasticities of substitution between the different inputs play a more complex role than suggested by the one-sector approach. According to the multi-sector models, the prediction of growth becoming sustainable emerges as realistic, provided that the sectoral adjustment costs in the economy are not too high.

Resilience is turning out to be a resilient concept. First proposed way back in the 1970s in the context of ecosystem dynamics, it was then dissected and elaborated–spawning terms such as malleability, elasticity, hysterisis, inertia, resistance, amplitude–as ecologists struggled to make it into something measurable, usable, and distinct from its notoriously slippery predecessor ‘stability’.

Daily and Ehrlich have described the current state of our epidemiological environment in chilling detail. While their point is that human beings interact and affect the epidemiological environment in a variety of ways, the development of antibiotic resistance in bacteria strikes us as one aspect that we can begin to analyse immediately. The evolution of resistance to antibiotics is a function of their use by humans. The more we use, the more selective pressure is placed upon bacteria to develop resistance. This is further complicated by how they are used. Both the duration and the amounts used affect the change in the level of resistance. Finally, the primary feature driving the concern over the use of these drugs is that the evolution of resistance makes these ‘miracle’ drugs exhaustible. We can try to develop new and better antibiotics, but it is uncertain how successful we will be and how expensive they will be if we are successful.

We use a choice experiment to evaluate a hypothetical irrigation water pricing regime in Karnataka State, India. The proposed regime includes increasing the availability of water in the dry season, increasing irrigation frequency, water sharing with downstream water users, set against the introduction of a semi-volumetric irrigation price. The majority of farmers chose the status quo (SQ) option. Given the large heterogeneity in farmers’ SQ water availability, irrigation practices and current water tax payments, the SQ could not be given a unique baseline interpretation. This poses a potential problem for choice model estimation. By coding the individual SQ situation of farmers, we observed considerable increase in the explanatory power of the choice experiment models. The results may be of general interest for choice experiments of environmental goods and services with heterogeneous spatial distribution, heterogeneous respondents and/or contentious policies that are expected to elicit considerable SQ response.

This paper offers a theoretical and empirical model of ecosystem-based fishery management. A multi-species and multi-fleet model integrating Lotka–Volterra trophic dynamics as well as production and profit assessments is developed and applied to the coastal fishery of French Guiana. This small-scale fishery constitutes a challenging example with high fish biodiversity, several non-selective fleets and a potentially increasing local food demand due to demographic growth. The dynamic model is calibrated with 13 species and four fleets using monthly catch and effort data from 2006 to 2009. Several contrasted fishing scenarios including status quo, total closure, economic and viable strategies are then simulated. They are compared from the viewpoints of both biodiversity preservation and socioeconomic performance, assuming fixed landing prices and fixed costs. We show that fishing outputs, including food supply and fleet profitability, can be sustained on average but a loss of species cannot be avoided.

In this paper we study a group of policies aimed at discouraging the use of private transportation during peak hours, both directly and indirectly, by increasing the attractiveness of the only available substitute, the bus. This is done using a choice experiment constructed to find the answer to the following basic question: Given fixed house-to work structures and no working hour flexibility, by how much is the choice of travel mode for commuters to work sensitive to changes in travel time, changes in costs for each mode and other service attributes? This information is then used to identify the most suitable combination of policies dealing with air pollution and congestion in the typical developing country context of metropolitan Costa Rica. We also provide estimates of the value of travel time as a measure of the potential benefits gained from reduced congestion.

This paper draws on a number of recent studies to shed light on several policy issues raised by the impact of environmental policies on technological innovation. First, to what extent does induced innovation raise the overall net benefits to society from environmental policies? Second, how does induced innovation affect the appropriate choice among alternative environmental policy instruments? Third, how does it affect the optimal stringency of environmental regulations? Fourth, should environmental policies be supplemented with additional policies to promote innovation, such as research contracts or prizes for new technologies?

Aggregate shocks such as droughts and floods cannot be perfectly insured by risk sharing within a village. Given this inability, what type of households are more vulnerable in terms of a decline in consumption when a village is hit by such shocks and what kind of microeconomic mechanism underlies the household heterogeneity in vulnerability? These questions are investigated using two-period panel data collected in rural Pakistan in 2001 and 2004. We compare consumption response to droughts, floods and health shocks and investigate how the response differs across different types of households. Empirical results show that the impact of droughts was negligible, younger and more landed households were less vulnerable to floods, and households with greater access to formal financial institutions were less vulnerable to idiosyncratic health shocks. The empirical pattern suggests the possibility of risk sharing among households that are heterogeneous in both risk aversion and credit access.

Chongqing is a heavily polluted industrial megacity in China. We have estimated the environmental cost of water pollution in Chongqing. Limiting our inquiry to the resource cost, i.e. real resources spent or production possibilities foregone because of water pollution, our estimate equals 1.2 per cent of Chongqing gross product, with a subjective 95 per cent confidence interval of (0.9–1.5). Damage to agriculture constitutes the largest share of costs, 56 per cent, while damage to health and damage to industry make up 20 per cent and 18 per cent, respectively. The cost estimate of 1.2 per cent, which employs the human capital approach, is sensitive to the valuation of statistical lives. A calculation using willingness-to-pay for avoiding premature death sets the total cost at 4.3 per cent of Chongqing gross product.

Although improvements in human health represent a crucial aspect of development worldwide, many trends associated with development and global change appear to be reducing health security. In this article, we define the human epidemiological environment and describe key biophysical, economic, sociocultural, and political factors that shape it. The potential impact upon the epidemiological environment of aspects of both development and global change are then examined: the influences of human population size, mobility, geographic distribution, and nutritional status; modernization; loss of indigenous medicinal knowledge; microbial evolution of antibiotic resistance; land conversion and biodiversity loss; agricultural intensification; stratospheric ozone depletion; and climate change. Human vulnerability to infectious disease is often strongly and deleteriously influenced by ongoing, intensifying changes in these factors. An unprecedented level of communication and cooperation between experts, institutions, and nations is required to respond to the increasing threat of epidemic disease, which points to a promising area for enhanced interdisciplinary collaboration.

Despite complex interlinkages, insights into the multifaceted relationship between environmental risks and poverty can be gained through an analysis of different risks across space, time and scale within a single context using consistent methods. Combining geo-spatial data on eight environmental risks and household survey data from 2010–2014 for the case study of Vietnam, this paper shows: (i) at the district level, the incidence of poverty is higher in high risk areas, (ii) at the household level, poorer households face higher environmental risks, (iii) for some risks the relationship with household-level consumption varies between rural and urban areas, and (iv) environmental risks explain consumption differences between households, but less so changes over time. While altogether these analyses cannot establish a causal relationship between environmental risks and poverty, they do indicate that Vietnam's poor are disproportionally exposed. Given growing pressures due to climate change, addressing such risks should be a focus of poverty reduction efforts.

Previous studies have examined the impact of an exogenous increase in population on the local resource base. In some recent theoretical work it has been proposed that resource scarcity, in turn, may affect fertility, and hence population growth rates. However, the sign and magnitude of this effect remains an open empirical question. In this paper we examine the impact of fuelwood and water scarcity on fertility rates using household data from rural South Africa. An individual choice model of fertility is estimated in which resource scarcity affects the demand for children through its effect on child mortality and productivity of children as resource collectors. Several alternative measures of resource scarcity are used, such as average distance traveled and time per trip for collecting water and fuelwood. We find wood scarcity to have a positive and significant effect on fertility. The effect of water scarcity is also positive, but not significant in general.

This study examines farmers’ preferences for seed of new rice varieties (improved and NERICA) and their willingness to pay (WTP) for information embodied in the seed, in villages of Nigeria and Benin. Information might not generate rivalry among its users but excludability is certainly a characteristic of information and its delivery can generate incentives for private participation. Conjoint utility analysis is used to estimate the structure of farmers’ preferences for rice seed. Farmers prefer one variety based on the utility they obtain from its attributes, which depends on their own social and economic characteristics. Contingent methods are used to elicit preferences and rice seed price. The marginal values of attributes are estimated with an ordered probit regression. The WTP for seed-related information is derived from the utility model. The results have implications for the best way to finance extension services in the areas of intervention, particularly for new rice varieties.

The growing evidence that increased levels of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere are related to global warming has prompted several countries to consider options for reducing and offsetting current carbon dioxide emissions. Opportunities for carbon sequestration with forestry activities have been analysed in detail primarily in industrialized nations, mainly because of data availability. This article presents a model that simulates a tropical forest stand in its role as a source of income and as a carbon store, and quantifies the potential for and cost-effectiveness of carbon sequestration through modifications of management practices. Results suggest that financing modifications of forestry practices may achieve net carbon sequestration in a relatively cost-effective way. Tropical countries with extensive forest resources may be in a position to offer cost-effective net carbon sequestration options.

In this model, well-being depends on leisure, on an environmental renewable resource, and on a non-storable output, which can substitute for the environmental resource or can satisfy needs different from those satisfied by the resource. Individuals have free access to the environmental resource, which is subject to negative externalities: that is, is depleted by the production and consumption of the output. Individuals react to negative externalities by increasing their labour supply in order to produce substitutes for the diminishing resource. The increase in production and consumption that ensues generates further deterioration of the future quality or quantity of the free resource, thus giving rise to a self-reinforcing process. Multiple equilibria and ‘critical mass effects’ are consistent with the functioning of this economy and the resulting level of aggregate production may be higher than is socially desirable.

This study assesses a new generation of smallholder biogas, an applied sustainable energy technology currently being rolled out on a massive scale in rural China. In the past, the implementation of biogas programs has been largely disappointing, in China (and elsewhere). User satisfaction with the new program is high, based on purposively collected data from 2,700 households in five provinces, and the available evidence suggests tangible environmental and economic benefits. There are strong indications of fuel switching away from fuelwood and crop residues. Less time is spent on fuelwood collection and cooking, which benefits women especially. Adopters save on fertilizers by using biogas residues. Finally, problems with suspension and interrupted supply appear lower than in earlier studies. Overall, these initial findings are grounds for optimism about the potential for scaled-up smallholder biogas to deliver safe and clean rural energy, in China and beyond, provided critical conditions are met.

This paper conducts a novel empirical analysis of the effect of environmental regulation on local pollution emissions by taking 84 cases of local legislation among 31 provinces in China during 1990–2009. We combine the matching methodology and difference-in-difference method to estimate the causal effect of provincial environmental legislation. Our estimation uncovers that there is no significant pollution abatement effect, however, environmental legislation helps to decrease local pollution emission only for those provinces that have stricter enforcement. Such results remain robust while considering the time lag effect, different types of pollutants, choice of different comparison groups and using of synthetic control method. Generally, our study shows the importance of the enforcement for environmental legislation in China.

Morocco's argan oil is now the most expensive edible oil in the world. Growing high-value argan markets have sparked a bonanza of argan activity. NGOs, international and domestic development agencies, and argan oil cooperatives have promoted the win–win aim of simultaneously benefiting locals and the argan forest. We test this win–win claim by surveying households before and after rapid appreciation in argan prices. The argan boom has benefited some rural households. Those well positioned to benefit increased their goat herds more than other households, which bodes poorly for forest impacts, and were more likely to send their girls to secondary school. While locals are keeping their goats out of argan trees during the harvest, they may also be resorting to more aggressive harvesting techniques. The boom has made households vigilant guardians of fruit on their own trees, but has not incited investments in longer term tree and forest health.

The paper first presents evidence from the engineering literature on air and water pollution control, which shows that, when the pollution abatement technologies are in place, large reductions in pollution have been achieved at costs that are small relative to the costs of production. A simulation model is then developed to study the effects of technical progress on pollution abatement, and applied to particular cases in developing countries. The results are compared with the projections of an environmental Kuznets curve: they reproduce the latter if policies were not to be introduced until per capita incomes reached levels comparable to those of the industrial countries when they first introduced their policies; but show dramatically lower and earlier peaks if policies were to be introduced earlier. The conclusion is shown to apply more generally, and it is argued that developing countries can aspire to addressing their environmental problems at a much earlier phase of development than the industrial countries before them.

A contingent valuation study measured citizen willingness to pay (WTP) for an improvement in surface water quality in Latvia. The average respondent was willing to pay 0.7 per cent of household income for the environmental improvement, but that amount was much less than needed to finance the required investments in treatment facilities. While the income elasticity of WTP for the average resident was low (0.56), it increases as income increases, reaching 0.9 at an income level double the current average. As real incomes increase in Latvia, the demand for environmental quality by citizens can be expected to increase substantially.