The paper considers the transition of an economy from non-renewable to renewable energy. We set up a canonical growth model with damages in the household's welfare function and two energy sources – non-renewable and renewable energy. To produce renewable energy a capital stock must be built up. A socially optimal solution is considered that takes into account the negative externality from the non-renewable energy. We also study how the optimal solution can be mimicked in a market economy by policies using subsidies and tax rates. To solve the model numerically, we use Nonlinear Model Predictive Control. We study when a transition to renewable energy takes place and whether it occurs before the non-renewable resource is exhausted. In addition, we analyze the impact of the initial values of the non-renewable resource and of the capital stock on the time of paths of the variables.

Despite complex interlinkages, insights into the multifaceted relationship between environmental risks and poverty can be gained through an analysis of different risks across space, time and scale within a single context using consistent methods. Combining geo-spatial data on eight environmental risks and household survey data from 2010–2014 for the case study of Vietnam, this paper shows: (i) at the district level, the incidence of poverty is higher in high risk areas, (ii) at the household level, poorer households face higher environmental risks, (iii) for some risks the relationship with household-level consumption varies between rural and urban areas, and (iv) environmental risks explain consumption differences between households, but less so changes over time. While altogether these analyses cannot establish a causal relationship between environmental risks and poverty, they do indicate that Vietnam's poor are disproportionally exposed. Given growing pressures due to climate change, addressing such risks should be a focus of poverty reduction efforts.

Resilience is turning out to be a resilient concept. First proposed way back in the 1970s in the context of ecosystem dynamics, it was then dissected and elaborated–spawning terms such as malleability, elasticity, hysterisis, inertia, resistance, amplitude–as ecologists struggled to make it into something measurable, usable, and distinct from its notoriously slippery predecessor ‘stability’.

Previous studies have examined the impact of an exogenous increase in population on the local resource base. In some recent theoretical work it has been proposed that resource scarcity, in turn, may affect fertility, and hence population growth rates. However, the sign and magnitude of this effect remains an open empirical question. In this paper we examine the impact of fuelwood and water scarcity on fertility rates using household data from rural South Africa. An individual choice model of fertility is estimated in which resource scarcity affects the demand for children through its effect on child mortality and productivity of children as resource collectors. Several alternative measures of resource scarcity are used, such as average distance traveled and time per trip for collecting water and fuelwood. We find wood scarcity to have a positive and significant effect on fertility. The effect of water scarcity is also positive, but not significant in general.

One of the most interesting and potentially useful outcomes of recent collaboration between natural and social scientists concerned with the sustainability of jointly determined ecological-economic systems is the application of the ecological concept of resilience. In its broadest sense, resilience is a measure of the ability of a system to withstand stresses and shocks – its ability to persist in an uncertain world. For many policy-makers, however, the concern that desirable states or processes may not be ‘sustainable’ is balanced by the concern that individuals and societies may get ‘locked-in’ to undesirable states or processes. Many low-income countries, for example, are thought to have been caught in poverty traps, and poverty traps have since been seen as a major cause of environmental degradation (Dasgupta, 1993). Other examples of ‘lock-in’ include our dependence on hydrocarbon-based technologies, or the institutional and cultural rigidities that stand in the way of change (Hanna, Folke, and Mäler, 1996). Such states or processes are too persistent.

This paper presents different substitution mechanisms which determine, in a theoretical framework, the conditions for long-term sustainable development. In a one-sector approach and in two versions of a multi-sector endogenous growth model, the accumulation and the substitution of man-made inputs for natural resources are analysed. Assuming man-made capital to be an output of a specific sector of the economy, the elasticities of substitution between the different inputs play a more complex role than suggested by the one-sector approach. According to the multi-sector models, the prediction of growth becoming sustainable emerges as realistic, provided that the sectoral adjustment costs in the economy are not too high.

In Namibia, as in many parts of Africa, households are highly dependent on forest resources for their livelihoods, including energy needs. Using data originally collected for Namibia's forest resource accounts and insights from a non-separable household model, this paper estimates household fuelwood demand. Specifically, the factors underlying the substitution between fuelwood collected from open access forest resources, cow dung, and fuelwood purchased from the market are analysed. Heckman two-step estimates show that households respond to economic scarcity, as measured by the opportunity costs of collecting fuelwood, by reducing energy consumption slightly more than by increasing labour input to collection. There is limited evidence for substitution from fuelwood to other energy sources, particularly with declining availability of forest stocks. Market participants may be more sensitive to price changes than non-participants. All estimated elasticities are low, similar to those observed in previous studies.

Daily and Ehrlich have described the current state of our epidemiological environment in chilling detail. While their point is that human beings interact and affect the epidemiological environment in a variety of ways, the development of antibiotic resistance in bacteria strikes us as one aspect that we can begin to analyse immediately. The evolution of resistance to antibiotics is a function of their use by humans. The more we use, the more selective pressure is placed upon bacteria to develop resistance. This is further complicated by how they are used. Both the duration and the amounts used affect the change in the level of resistance. Finally, the primary feature driving the concern over the use of these drugs is that the evolution of resistance makes these ‘miracle’ drugs exhaustible. We can try to develop new and better antibiotics, but it is uncertain how successful we will be and how expensive they will be if we are successful.

Traditional cost-benefit analyses (CBAs) of flood risk reduction measures usually ignore distributions of damages over populations, which disadvantages the poor. Instead, a CBA based on social welfare includes individual social vulnerability through relative impacts on consumption. If vulnerabilities are high, floods are catastrophic and cause poverty, migration or indirect deaths, and risk reductions have high social welfare values. For non-catastrophic risks, social welfare values of risks are relatively higher for vulnerable low-income households. We present a framework to integrate social vulnerability into CBAs, and show how financial protection reduces social flood vulnerability and provides welfare benefits. A case study illustrates that traditional CBAs underestimate the social welfare value of flood risk reduction measures, up to a factor of 30. Data on financial protection is however scarce, which hampers estimation of the social welfare value in practice. A solution is to increase financial protection of individuals, in addition to offering physical flood protection.

We use a choice experiment to evaluate a hypothetical irrigation water pricing regime in Karnataka State, India. The proposed regime includes increasing the availability of water in the dry season, increasing irrigation frequency, water sharing with downstream water users, set against the introduction of a semi-volumetric irrigation price. The majority of farmers chose the status quo (SQ) option. Given the large heterogeneity in farmers’ SQ water availability, irrigation practices and current water tax payments, the SQ could not be given a unique baseline interpretation. This poses a potential problem for choice model estimation. By coding the individual SQ situation of farmers, we observed considerable increase in the explanatory power of the choice experiment models. The results may be of general interest for choice experiments of environmental goods and services with heterogeneous spatial distribution, heterogeneous respondents and/or contentious policies that are expected to elicit considerable SQ response.

This paper offers a theoretical and empirical model of ecosystem-based fishery management. A multi-species and multi-fleet model integrating Lotka–Volterra trophic dynamics as well as production and profit assessments is developed and applied to the coastal fishery of French Guiana. This small-scale fishery constitutes a challenging example with high fish biodiversity, several non-selective fleets and a potentially increasing local food demand due to demographic growth. The dynamic model is calibrated with 13 species and four fleets using monthly catch and effort data from 2006 to 2009. Several contrasted fishing scenarios including status quo, total closure, economic and viable strategies are then simulated. They are compared from the viewpoints of both biodiversity preservation and socioeconomic performance, assuming fixed landing prices and fixed costs. We show that fishing outputs, including food supply and fleet profitability, can be sustained on average but a loss of species cannot be avoided.

This paper draws on a number of recent studies to shed light on several policy issues raised by the impact of environmental policies on technological innovation. First, to what extent does induced innovation raise the overall net benefits to society from environmental policies? Second, how does induced innovation affect the appropriate choice among alternative environmental policy instruments? Third, how does it affect the optimal stringency of environmental regulations? Fourth, should environmental policies be supplemented with additional policies to promote innovation, such as research contracts or prizes for new technologies?

Morocco's argan oil is now the most expensive edible oil in the world. Growing high-value argan markets have sparked a bonanza of argan activity. NGOs, international and domestic development agencies, and argan oil cooperatives have promoted the win–win aim of simultaneously benefiting locals and the argan forest. We test this win–win claim by surveying households before and after rapid appreciation in argan prices. The argan boom has benefited some rural households. Those well positioned to benefit increased their goat herds more than other households, which bodes poorly for forest impacts, and were more likely to send their girls to secondary school. While locals are keeping their goats out of argan trees during the harvest, they may also be resorting to more aggressive harvesting techniques. The boom has made households vigilant guardians of fruit on their own trees, but has not incited investments in longer term tree and forest health.

In this paper we study a group of policies aimed at discouraging the use of private transportation during peak hours, both directly and indirectly, by increasing the attractiveness of the only available substitute, the bus. This is done using a choice experiment constructed to find the answer to the following basic question: Given fixed house-to work structures and no working hour flexibility, by how much is the choice of travel mode for commuters to work sensitive to changes in travel time, changes in costs for each mode and other service attributes? This information is then used to identify the most suitable combination of policies dealing with air pollution and congestion in the typical developing country context of metropolitan Costa Rica. We also provide estimates of the value of travel time as a measure of the potential benefits gained from reduced congestion.

Although improvements in human health represent a crucial aspect of development worldwide, many trends associated with development and global change appear to be reducing health security. In this article, we define the human epidemiological environment and describe key biophysical, economic, sociocultural, and political factors that shape it. The potential impact upon the epidemiological environment of aspects of both development and global change are then examined: the influences of human population size, mobility, geographic distribution, and nutritional status; modernization; loss of indigenous medicinal knowledge; microbial evolution of antibiotic resistance; land conversion and biodiversity loss; agricultural intensification; stratospheric ozone depletion; and climate change. Human vulnerability to infectious disease is often strongly and deleteriously influenced by ongoing, intensifying changes in these factors. An unprecedented level of communication and cooperation between experts, institutions, and nations is required to respond to the increasing threat of epidemic disease, which points to a promising area for enhanced interdisciplinary collaboration.

Chongqing is a heavily polluted industrial megacity in China. We have estimated the environmental cost of water pollution in Chongqing. Limiting our inquiry to the resource cost, i.e. real resources spent or production possibilities foregone because of water pollution, our estimate equals 1.2 per cent of Chongqing gross product, with a subjective 95 per cent confidence interval of (0.9–1.5). Damage to agriculture constitutes the largest share of costs, 56 per cent, while damage to health and damage to industry make up 20 per cent and 18 per cent, respectively. The cost estimate of 1.2 per cent, which employs the human capital approach, is sensitive to the valuation of statistical lives. A calculation using willingness-to-pay for avoiding premature death sets the total cost at 4.3 per cent of Chongqing gross product.

China has been implementing one of the world's largest ecological rehabilitation projects, the Natural Forest Protection Program (NFPP), to improve its fragile and precarious environmental conditions. This paper measures the socioeconomic impacts of the NFPP using input–output (I–O) models. We find that the NFPP will expand the annual output of the forest sectors by 5.8 billion Yuan and the whole economy by 8.9 billion Yuan by 2010. Employment will increase by 0.84 million in the forest sectors and by 0.93 million in the whole economy. Associated with the enormous expansion of forest protection and management are huge contributions to mitigating water runoff, soil erosion, flooding, and biodiversity loss. The investments and adjustments are thus worthwhile, if the program is properly implemented. The challenges are to transform loggers into tree planters and forest managers and to ensure that the financial and institutional commitments by the local and national governments will be materialized.

This study examines farmers’ preferences for seed of new rice varieties (improved and NERICA) and their willingness to pay (WTP) for information embodied in the seed, in villages of Nigeria and Benin. Information might not generate rivalry among its users but excludability is certainly a characteristic of information and its delivery can generate incentives for private participation. Conjoint utility analysis is used to estimate the structure of farmers’ preferences for rice seed. Farmers prefer one variety based on the utility they obtain from its attributes, which depends on their own social and economic characteristics. Contingent methods are used to elicit preferences and rice seed price. The marginal values of attributes are estimated with an ordered probit regression. The WTP for seed-related information is derived from the utility model. The results have implications for the best way to finance extension services in the areas of intervention, particularly for new rice varieties.

The growing evidence that increased levels of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere are related to global warming has prompted several countries to consider options for reducing and offsetting current carbon dioxide emissions. Opportunities for carbon sequestration with forestry activities have been analysed in detail primarily in industrialized nations, mainly because of data availability. This article presents a model that simulates a tropical forest stand in its role as a source of income and as a carbon store, and quantifies the potential for and cost-effectiveness of carbon sequestration through modifications of management practices. Results suggest that financing modifications of forestry practices may achieve net carbon sequestration in a relatively cost-effective way. Tropical countries with extensive forest resources may be in a position to offer cost-effective net carbon sequestration options.

This paper analyzes the optimal mix of adaptation and mitigation expenditures in a cost-effective setting, in which countries cooperate to achieve a long-term stabilization target (550 CO2-eq). It uses an Integrated Assessment Model (AD-WITCH) that describes the relationships between different adaptation modes (reactive and anticipatory), mitigation and capacity building to analyze the optimal portfolio of adaptation measures. Results show that the optimal intertemporal distribution of climate policy measures is characterized by early investments in mitigation followed by large adaptation expenditures a few decades later. Hence, the possibility of adapting does not justify postponing mitigation. Moreover, a climate change policy combining mitigation and adaptation is less costly than mitigation alone. In this sense mitigation and adaptation are shown to be strategic complements rather than mutually exclusive.