This paper presents a linked hydro-economic model and uses it to examine the regional effects of water use regulations and product price changes on the agriculture of the São Francisco River Basin, Brazil. The effects of weather on surface water availability are explicitly addressed using the hydrological model MIKE-Basin. Farmers’ adjustments to changes in precipitation, surface water availability, and other factors are quantified using an economic model based on non-linear programming techniques. The models are externally linked. Results show that regional impacts, at the sub-basin level, vary depending on the location of each sub-basin relative to river flows. The effects of water use regulations and of exogenous price shocks on agriculture depend on weather, location, product mix and production technology. Implications of these results for policies designed to manage agriculture and water use are discussed.

A recently developed small area estimation technique is used to geographically derive detailed estimates of consumption-based poverty and inequality in rural Shaanxi, China. These estimates may be helpful for targeting since there is wide variability in poverty rates within Shaanxi but low levels of inequality within most counties and townships. We also investigate whether including environmental variables in the equation used to predict consumption and poverty improves upon typical approaches that only use household survey and census data. Ignoring environmental variables appears likely to produce targeting errors.

Dual discounting is a new approach under consideration for use in environmental cost–benefit analysis. This paper updates the literature on this subject and subjects it to the assessment of an international panel of experts on environmental discounting by means of a Delphi study. Subsequently, a case study provides some findings deriving from the practical application of this strategy as the choice of discounting scenario in the economic evaluation of a plant for the desalination of irrigation return water, aimed at halting the degradation of a wetland. There are theoretical and practical reasons to support the use of this discounting approach in relation to projects with intergenerational impact, where the environmental effects are considerable in relation to market effects. Although still under investigation, the dual discounting approach appears to provide an appropriate methodological platform enabling the quantification of the degree of intergenerational equity implicit in the project.

The paper analyzes the economic impacts of climate change-induced fluctuations on the performance of Ethiopia's agriculture, using a countrywide computable general equilibrium (CGE) model. We model the impacts on agriculture using a Ricardian model, where current agricultural production is modelled as a function of temperature and precipitation, among other things, and where future agriculture is assumed to follow the same climate function. The effect of overall climate change is projected to be relatively benign until approximately 2030, but will become considerably worse thereafter. Our simulation results indicate that, over a 50-year period, the projected reduction in agricultural productivity may lead to reductions in average income of some 20 per cent compared with the outcome that would have prevailed in the absence of climate change. This indicates that adaptation policies – both government planned and those that ease autonomous adaptation by farmers – will be crucial for Ethiopia's future development.

We study the welfare and energy poverty implications of energy price change scenarios in Indonesia. Our analysis extends previous analyses of energy price impacts at the household level in three ways. First, by employing a household energy demand system (QUAIDS), we are able to distinguish between first- and second-order welfare effects over the income distribution. Second, our results point to the ownership of energy-processing durables as another source of impact heterogeneity. Third, we extend the welfare analysis beyond the money-metric utility effects and look at energy poverty, which is understood as the absence of or imperfect access to reliable and clean modern energy services. The analysis indicates that energy prices may serve as an effective instrument to reduce energy use but also have important adverse welfare effects. The latter can, however, be mitigated by appropriate compensation policies.

Gold is frequently mined in rainforests that can provide either gold or forest benefits, but not both. This conflict in resource use occurs in Ghana, a developing country in the tropics where the capital needed for mining is obtained from foreign direct investment (FDI). We use a dynamic model to show that an ad valorem severance tax on gross revenue can be used to internalize environmental opportunity costs. The optimal tax must equal the ratio of marginal benefits from forest use to marginal benefits from gold extraction. Furthermore, the tax should increase (decrease) when adjusted net return on all other assets in the economy is higher (lower) than the growth in the price of gold. Empirical results suggest that the 3 per cent tax rate currently used in Ghana is too low to fully represent the external cost of extraction (i.e., lost forest benefits).

The world's leaders, business leaders and the public at large are beginning to question, amidst the multiple social, environmental and economic crises, whether our present trajectory of economic growth is sustainable. We seem to force ourselves to believe that we can grow ourselves out of the multiple crises we face today. The notion of sustainable development and the call for going beyond just material wealth to gauge our wellbeing has long featured in much of the sustainable development, environmental and ecological economics literature. We are afraid the present preoccupation with the green economy will not provide the change we are looking for if we don't address the fundamental problem of what we are aiming to achieve and how we measure our progress towards achieving those goals. We fall into the trap many international agencies have made over the past six decades, where the means become the ends and the ends become an academic exercise (Chang, 2001).

This paper compares protest rates and willingness to pay (WTP) using a payment card versus single and double bounded voter referendum contingent valuation question formats. Using a chi-square test, the payment card had a significantly higher protest rate (6.7 per cent) than the voter referendum question format (2.2 per cent). The median WTP of the single bounded and double bounded referendum format exceeds the payment card by a factor of nine and seven, respectively. The median WTP from the referendum formats represent about 8 per cent of income, while the payment card results represents about 1 per cent of income. These large differences in WTP between question formats are double what have been found in past studies. We believe this result may be due to excessive yea saying at high bid amounts in the dichotomous choice question formats. This behavior may arise in our case study in rural China because citizens have not had a long history of open elections or voting on tax referenda.

This paper investigates the relationship between land concentration and deforestation in the Brazilian Amazon. It develops a conceptual framework in which an individual may have three alternatives: to be a farmer in an already established place, to be a rural worker, or to migrate to the agricultural frontier in order to deforest. This model implies that land inequality affects deforestation positively. Based on data from municipalities with positive deforestation from 2002 to 2011, a model has been estimated to test this theoretical prediction. By making use of an instrumental variable, results show that there is statistical evidence to support the existence of a direct relationship between land inequality and deforestation. Results are stronger for the period 2002–2005. This might be due to command and control policies which have significantly increased the cost of clearing land since the mid-2000s.

Rural households in developing countries depend on crops, forest extraction and other income sources for their livelihoods, but these livelihood contributions are sensitive to climate change. Combining socioeconomic data from about 8,000 smallholder households across the tropics with gridded precipitation and temperature data, we find that households have the highest crop income at 21°C temperature and 2,000 mm precipitation. Forest incomes increase on both sides of this agricultural maximum. We further find indications that crop income declines in response to weather shocks while forest income increases, suggesting that households may cope by reallocating inputs from agriculture to forests. Forest production may thus be less sensitive than crop production to climatic fluctuations, gaining comparative advantage in extreme climates and under weather anomalies. This suggests that well-managed forests might help poor rural households to cope with and adapt to future climate change.

This paper measures the economic impacts of Brazil's climate mitigation strategies contained in its Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC). To do so, we employ the computable general equilibrium MIT Economic Projection and Policy Analysis model and simulate alternative carbon pricing scenarios (sectoral versus economy-wide carbon markets), set to achieve the country's overall emissions targets announced under the Paris Agreement. The results show relatively cheap emissions reductions from land-use changes and agriculture in the short run: the cost of the Brazilian NDC is predicted to be only 0.7 per cent of GDP in 2030. Further efforts to reduce carbon emissions beyond 2030 would require policy changes, since all the potential emissions reductions from deforestation would be finished and the capacity to expand renewable energy sources would be constrained. In this case, an economy-wide carbon pricing system would help substantially to avoid higher compliance costs.

Adaptation costs to climate change vary widely across countries, especially between developed and developing countries. Adaptation costs also influence a country's decision to abate and join international environmental agreements (IEAs). In this paper, the authors study how these cost differences affect participation incentives. Their model identifies two channels through which adaptation affects free-riding incentives: carbon leakage and cost asymmetry in adaptation. In contrast with the common view, the authors find that the presence of adaptation is not necessarily an impediment to cooperation on abatement. They also present conditions under which adaptation can strengthen or weaken free-riding incentives. The results serve as a cautionary tale to policy makers and suggest that policies directed at reducing carbon leakage and/or cost differences between developed and developing countries may also affect the success and failure of IEAs.

This paper describes the flows of aid after large catastrophic natural disasters by using the extensive record of bilateral aid flows, by aid sector, available through the OECD's Development Assistance Committee. For each large donor, the extent of cross-sector reallocation is identified that is occurring in the aftermath of large disasters whereby humanitarian aid increases but other types of aid may decrease. The evidence in this paper suggests that the expectation of large surges in post-disaster aid flows is not warranted given the past diversity of experience of global foreign post-disaster aid by donor and by event. No evidence is found, however, that donors reallocate aid between recipient countries (cross-recipient reallocation). These observations suggest that countries which are predicted to face increasing losses from natural disasters in the coming decades (and almost all are) should be devoting significant resources to prevention, insurance and mitigation, rather than expecting significant post-disaster aid inflows.

Integrated Pest Management (IPM) is an important component of sustainable agriculture. Farmers who switch from a more capital-intensive pesticide-based pest management strategy to IPM have to substitute capital with labour. The adoption of IPM will therefore depend, among other things, on the opportunity costs of labour. A simple model analyses the trade-off between IPM and current farmers' best practice in developing countries. Modifications of the model include different forms of labour organization in pest management, such as owner operated and short- and long-term labour contracts. The implications are that agricultural policies, environmental policies, and labour market policies can go hand in hand. Unfortunately, this will be more likely at a higher level of original pesticide use and hence a higher level of environmental costs.

The mopane worm, which is the caterpillar form of the Saturnid moth Imbrasia belina Westwood, is – like other edible insects and caterpillars – a vital source of protein in southern African countries. The worms live and graze on mopane trees, which have alternative uses. With increasing commercialization of the worm, its management, which was hitherto organized as a common property resource, has been degraded to almost open access. This paper uses a bioeconomic modelling approach to show that for some optimal allocation of the mopane forest stock, the restrictive harvest period policy advocated by community leaders may not lead to sustainable harvesting of the worm.

This paper investigates factors determining participation and effort in illegal hunting, using cross-section survey data from households in western Serengeti, Tanzania. One purpose of the analysis is to study the impact on illegal hunting of the integrated conservation and development project established in this area, namely the Serengeti Regional Conservation Project (SRCP). The paper also investigates how the pattern of crop production in agriculture, market accessibility and wildlife-induced damage to crops and domestic animals affect illegal hunting. The empirical results suggest that effort in illegal hunting is inversely related to participation in SRCP. The results also show that the likelihood of illegal hunting is a decreasing function of the amount of agricultural land cultivated for maize production. Further, the hunting effort is negatively related to the size of cotton and maize land, as well as wildlife-induced damage to crops and domestic animals.

This paper deals with the problems of estimating irrigation water demand. We propose an original method of estimation in two steps. First, we develop a dynamic programming model in order to explain the optimal irrigation management plan. Based on a microeconomic approach describing the farmer's behavior, this economic model, introducing an agronomic model, and an algorithm of solution search, is used to compute a realistic database. Second, these data are used to estimate profit functions by a non-parametric method. The irrigation water demand function is estimated using a non-parametric derivation procedure.

An application to irrigation water demand is proposed in the southwestern area of France where conflicts appear frequently. The same results appear for different climates: for small quantities of water available, irrigation water demand seems to be quite inelastic. If one increases the total quantity of water available, the shape of the curve changes and the demand appears more elastic. The threshold price at which the changes in price-responsiveness appears, depends on weather conditions and range from 0.30 F/m3 in a wet year to 1.60 F/m3 in a dry year. These results are crucial information for the regulator in order to analyze the effects of a water regulation policy, based on prices. The impact of an increase in the water price will depend not only on the climate but also on the location of the initial and final prices on the demand function.

JEL classification: C14, C16, Q15

This paper develops a bio-economic model to explore the effect on illegal hunting, wildlife conservation, and human welfare of the most common instruments of two different designs of Integrated Conservation and Development Projects (ICDPs) currently in existence. First, it is demonstrated that the distribution of game meat and money transfers to the local people fails if not explicitly linked to the conservation objective. Second, the analysis shows that ICDPs relying on such a link, implemented as a risk of being excluded from the project if caught in illegal hunting, may reach their goal of improved wildlife conservation and human welfare. The theoretical model is illustrated by numerical calculations using data from the Serengeti in Tanzania.

State-owned forest enterprises (SOFEs) in northeast China play important roles both in timber production and in the maintenance of ecological security. This paper examines the effects of a number of policy measures on the behavioral choices of the SOFEs. The results show that the extent to which SOFE supervising authorities emphasized the improvement of forest resources in their annual evaluation of the SOFEs had significant impacts on the harvest and investment decisions and the development of forest resources. Promotion of the management and utilization of non-timber resources, as well as reforms aiming to increase the efficiency of forest protection and management, reduced timber harvests and increased investment, which in turn led to improvements of forest resources, although the effects were small. In contrast, reforms aimed at timber harvest and afforestation activities actually contributed to increasing timber harvest, which affected the development of the forest resources negatively.

We estimate the impact of large, catastrophic floods on internal armed conflict using global data on large floods between 1985 and 2009. The results suggest that while large floods did not ignite new conflict, they fueled existing armed conflicts. Floods and armed conflict are endogenously determined, and we show that empirically addressing this endogeneity is important. The estimated effects of floods on conflict prevalence are substantially larger in specifications that control for the endogeneity of floods, suggesting that treating natural disasters as exogenous phenomena may underestimate their impacts on sociopolitical outcomes.