Let {XN(t)} be a sequence of continuous time Markov population processes on an n-dimensional integer lattice, such that XN has initial state Nx(0) and has a finite number of possible transitions J from any state X: let the transition X → X + J have rate NgJ(N–1X), and let gJ(x) and x (0) be fixed as N varies. The rate of convergence of √N(N–1XN(t) — ζ (t)) to a Gaussian diffusion is investigated, where ζ(t) is the deterministic approximation to N–1XN(t), and a method of deriving higher order asymptotic expansions for its distribution is justified. The methods are applied to two birth and death processes, and to the closed stochastic epidemic.

Diffusion models in economics, finance, queueing, mathematical biology, and electrical engineering often involve reflecting barriers. In this paper, we study the analytical representation of transition densities for reflected one-dimensional diffusions in terms of their associated Sturm-Liouville spectral expansions. In particular, we provide explicit analytical expressions for transition densities of Brownian motion with drift, the Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process, and affine (square-root) diffusion with one or two reflecting barriers. The results are easily implementable on a personal computer and should prove useful in applications.

The paper compares non-parametric (design-based) and parametric (model-based) approaches to the analysis of data in the form of replicated spatial point patterns in two or more experimental groups. Basic questions for data of this kind concern estimating the properties of the underlying spatial point process within each experimental group, and comparing the properties between groups. A non-parametric approach, building on work by Diggle et. al. (1991), summarizes each pattern by an estimate of the reduced second moment measure or K-function (Ripley (1977)) and compares mean K-functions between experimental groups using a bootstrap testing procedure. A parametric approach fits particular classes of parametric model to the data, uses the model parameter estimates as summaries and tests for differences between groups by comparing fits with and without the assumption of common parameter values across groups. The paper discusses how either approach can be implemented in the specific context of a single-factor replicated experiment and uses simulations to show how the parametric approach can be more efficient when the underlying model assumptions hold, but potentially misleading otherwise.

We consider a compound renewal (Sparre Andersen) risk process with interclaim times that have a Kn distribution (i.e. the Laplace transform of their density function is a ratio of two polynomials of degree at most n ∈ N). The Laplace transform of the expected discounted penalty function at ruin is derived. This leads to a generalization of the defective renewal equations given by Willmot (1999) and Gerber and Shiu (2005). Finally, explicit results are given for rationally distributed claim severities.

Consider an aggregate arrival process AN obtained by multiplexing N on-off processes with exponential off periods of rate λ and subexponential on periods τon. As N goes to infinity, with λN → Λ, AN approaches an M/G/∞ type process. Both for finite and infinite N, we obtain the asymptotic characterization of the arrival process activity period.

Using these results we investigate a fluid queue with the limiting M/G/∞ arrival process At∞ and capacity c. When on periods are regularly varying (with non-integer exponent), we derive a precise asymptotic behavior of the queue length random variable QtP observed at the beginning of the arrival process activity periods

where ρ = 𝔼At∞ < c; r (c ≤ r) is the rate at which the fluid is arriving during an on period. The asymptotic (time average) queue distribution lower bound is obtained under more general assumptions regarding on periods than regular variation.

In addition, we analyse a queueing system in which one on-off process, whose on period belongs to a subclass of subexponential distributions, is multiplexed with independent exponential processes with aggregate expected rate 𝔼et. This system is shown to be asymptotically equivalent to the same queueing system with the exponential arrival processes being replaced by their total mean value 𝔼et.

A new class of iterated function systems is introduced, which allows for the computation of non-compactly supported invariant measures, which may represent, for example, greytone images of infinite extent. Conditions for the existence and attractiveness of invariant measures for this new class of randomly iterated maps, which are not necessarily contractions, in metric spaces such as , are established. Estimates for moments of these measures are obtained.

Special conditions are given for existence of the invariant measure in the interesting case of affine maps on . For non-singular affine maps on , the support of the measure is shown to be an infinite interval, but Fourier transform analysis shows that the measure can be purely singular even though its distribution function is strictly increasing.

We consider an infinite sequence of customers of types and an infinite sequence of servers of types where a server of type j can serve a subset of customer types C(j) and where a customer of type i can be served by a subset of server types S(i). We assume that the types of customers and servers in the infinite sequences are random, independent, and identically distributed, and that customers and servers are matched according to their order in the sequence, on a first-come–first-served (FCFS) basis. We investigate this process of infinite bipartite matching. In particular, we are interested in the rate ri,j that customers of type i are assigned to servers of type j. We present a countable state Markov chain to describe this process, and for some previously unsolved instances, we prove ergodicity and existence of limiting rates, and calculate ri,j.

A local mixing condition D(k) is introduced for stationary sequences satisfying Leadbetter's condition D. Under the local mixing condition, the asymptotic distribution of the sample maximum can be calculated with the knowledge of the joint distribution of k consecutive terms. Some examples are given to illustrate the notion.

The theory of piecewise-deterministic Markov processes is used in order to investigate insurance risk models where borrowing, investment and inflation are present.

The theory of the linear model is incomplete in that it fails to deal with variables possessing infinite variance. To fill an important part of this gap, we give an unbiased estimate, the “screened ratio estimate”, for λ in the regression E(X|Z) = λX; X and Z are linear combinations of independent, identically distributed symmetric random variables that are either stable or asymptotically Pareto distributed of index α ≤ 2. By way of comparison, the usual least squares estimate of λ is shown not to converge in general to any constant when α < 2. However, in the autoregression Xn = a1Xn-1 + … + akXn-k + Un, the least squares estimates are shown to be consistent as long as the roots of 1 - a1x2 - a2x2 - … - akxk = 0 are outside the complex unit circle, Xn is independent of Un+j,j ≥ 1, and the Un are independent and identically distributed and in the domain of attraction of a stable law of index a ≤ 2. Finally, the consistency of least squares estimates for finite moving averages is established.

In this paper we consider parallel and series systems, the components of which can be ‘improved'. The ‘improvement' consists of supplying the components with cold or hot standby spares or by allotting to them fixed budgets for minimal repairs. A fixed total resource of spares or minimal repairs is available. We find the optimal allocation of the resource items in several commonly encountered settings.

Many queues and related stochastic models, and in particular those that have a matrix-geometric stationary probability vector, have steady-state queue-length densities that are asymptotically geometric. The graph of the asymptotic rate η of these densities as a function of the traffic intensity ρ is the caudal characteristic curve. This is an informative graph from which a number of qualitative inferences about the behavior of the queue may be drawn.

The caudal characteristic curve may be computed (by elementary algorithms) for several useful models for which a complete exact numerical solution is not practically feasible. These include queues with certain types of superimposed arrival processes and/or multiple non-exponential servers. The necessary theorems which lead to the algorithmic procedures as well as the interpretation of several numerical examples are discussed.

A discrete-time model is presented for a system of two queues competing for the service attention of a single server with infinite buffer capacity. The service requirements are geometrically distributed and independent from customer to customer as well as from the arrivals. The allocation of service attention is governed by feedback policies which are based on past decisions and buffer content histories. The cost of operation per unit time is a linear function of the queue sizes. Under the model assumptions, a fixed prioritization scheme, known as the μc-rule, is shown to be optimal for the expected long-run average criterion and for the expected discounted criterion, over both finite and infinite horizons. Two different approaches are proposed for solving these problems. One is based on the dynamic programming methodology for Markov decision processes, and assumes the arrivals to be i.i.d. The other is valid under no additional assumption on the arrival stream and uses direct comparison arguments. In both cases, the sample path properties of the adopted state-space model are exploited.

The additive-increase multiplicative-decrease (AIMD) schemes designed to control congestion in communication networks are investigated from a probabilistic point of view. Functional limit theorems for a general class of Markov processes that describe these algorithms are obtained. The asymptotic behaviour of the corresponding invariant measures is described in terms of the limiting Markov processes. For some special important cases, including TCP congestion avoidance, an important autoregressive property is proved. As a consequence, the explicit expression of the related invariant probabilities is derived. The transient behaviour of these algorithms is also analysed.

Conditions are given for the family of distributions of a stationary, discrete-time, Gaussian, vector-valued time-series with covariance structure given up to a finite number of parameters to satisfy the asymptotic differentiability conditions introduced by Le Cam (1969).

This paper is concerned with two problems in connection with exponential ergodicity for birth-death processes on a semi-infinite lattice of integers. The first is to determine from the birth and death rates whether exponential ergodicity prevails. We give some necessary and some sufficient conditions which suffice to settle the question for most processes encountered in practice. In particular, a complete solution is obtained for processes where, from some finite state n onwards, the birth and death rates are rational functions of n. The second, more difficult, problem is to evaluate the decay parameter of an exponentially ergodic birth-death process. Our contribution to the solution of this problem consists of a number of upper and lower bounds.

Let t → h(t) be a smooth function on ℝ+, and B = {Bs; s ≥ 0} a standard Brownian motion. In this paper we derive expressions for the distributions of the variables Th: = inf {S; Bs = h(s)} and λth: = sup {s ≦ t; Bs = h(s)}, where t> 0 is given. Our formulas contain an expected value of a Brownian functional. It is seen that this can be computed, principally, using Feynman–Kac&s formula. Further, we discuss in our framework the familiar examples with linear and square root boundaries. Moreover our approach provides in some extent explicit solutions for the second-order boundaries.

In this paper some important properties of the generalized Pólya process are derived and their applications are discussed. The generalized Pólya process is defined based on the stochastic intensity. By interpreting the defined stochastic intensity of the generalized Pólya process, the restarting property of the process is discussed. Based on the restarting property of the process, the joint distribution of the number of events is derived and the conditional joint distribution of the arrival times is also obtained. In addition, some properties of the compound process defined for the generalized Pólya process are derived. Furthermore, a new type of repair is defined based on the process and its application to the area of reliability is discussed. Several examples illustrating the applications of the obtained properties to various areas are suggested.

Section 1 of this paper reviews some works related to reliability evaluation of systems without repair. The assumption that element failure rates are low enables one to obtain an expression for the main term in the asymptotic representation of system reliability function. Section 2 is devoted to repairable systems. The main index of interest in reliability is the time to the first system failure. A typical situation in reliability is that the repair time is much smaller than the element lifetime. This ‘fast repair' property leads to an interesting phenomenon, that for many renewable systems the time to system failure converges in distribution, under appropriate norming, to an exponential random variable. Some basic theorems explaining this fact are presented and a series of typical examples is considered. Special attention is paid to reviewing the works describing the exponentiality phenomenon in birth-and-death processes. Some important aspects of computing the normalizing constants are considered, among them the role played by the so-called ‘main event'. Section 2 also reviews various bounds on the deviation from exponentiality. Section 3 gives brief comments on some works and techniques related to asymptotic reliability analysis. In particular, attention is paid to the works presenting upper and lower bounds on the reliability function.

A considerable part of this review is based on sources originally published in Russian.

The estimation of P(Sn>u) by simulation, where Sn is the sum of independent, identically distributed random varibles Y1,…,Yn, is of importance in many applications. We propose two simulation estimators based upon the identity P(Sn>u)=nP(Sn>u, Mn=Yn), where Mn=max(Y1,…,Yn). One estimator uses importance sampling (for Yn only), and the other uses conditional Monte Carlo conditioning upon Y1,…,Yn−1. Properties of the relative error of the estimators are derived and a numerical study given in terms of the M/G/1 queue in which n is replaced by an independent geometric random variable N. The conclusion is that the new estimators compare extremely favorably with previous ones. In particular, the conditional Monte Carlo estimator is the first heavy-tailed example of an estimator with bounded relative error. Further improvements are obtained in the random-N case, by incorporating control variates and stratification techniques into the new estimation procedures.