We consider a class of optimal stopping problems where the ability to stop depends on an exogenous Poisson signal process - we can only stop at the Poisson jump times. Even though the time variable in these problems has a discrete aspect, a variational inequality can be obtained by considering an underlying continuous-time structure. Depending on whether stopping is allowed at t = 0, the value function exhibits different properties across the optimal exercise boundary. Indeed, the value function is only 𝒞0 across the optimal boundary when stopping is allowed at t = 0 and 𝒞2 otherwise, both contradicting the usual 𝒞1 smoothness that is necessary and sufficient for the application of the principle of smooth fit. Also discussed is an equivalent stochastic control formulation for these stopping problems. Finally, we derive the asymptotic behaviour of the value functions and optimal exercise boundaries as the intensity of the Poisson process goes to infinity or, roughly speaking, as the problems converge to the classical continuous-time optimal stopping problems.

The additive-increase multiplicative-decrease (AIMD) schemes designed to control congestion in communication networks are investigated from a probabilistic point of view. Functional limit theorems for a general class of Markov processes that describe these algorithms are obtained. The asymptotic behaviour of the corresponding invariant measures is described in terms of the limiting Markov processes. For some special important cases, including TCP congestion avoidance, an important autoregressive property is proved. As a consequence, the explicit expression of the related invariant probabilities is derived. The transient behaviour of these algorithms is also analysed.

The set covariance of a dead leaves model, constructed from hard spheres of constant diameter, is calculated analytically. The calculation is based on the covariance of a single sphere and on the pair correlation function of the centres of the spheres. There exist applications in the field of random sequential adsorption and in the interpretation of small-angle scattering experiments.

The main purpose of this work is to study and apply generalized contact distributions of (inhomogeneous) Boolean models Z with values in the extended convex ring. Given a convex body L ⊂ ℝd and a gauge body B ⊂ ℝd, such a generalized contact distribution is the conditional distribution of the random vector (dB(L,Z),uB(L,Z),pB(L,Z),lB(L,Z)) given that Z∩L = ∅, where Z is a Boolean model, dB(L,Z) is the distance of L from Z with respect to B, pB(L,Z) is the boundary point in L realizing this distance (if it exists uniquely), uB(L,Z) is the corresponding boundary point of B (if it exists uniquely) and lB(L,·) may be taken from a large class of locally defined functionals. In particular, we pursue the question of the extent to which the spatial density and the grain distribution underlying an inhomogeneous Boolean model Z are determined by the generalized contact distributions of Z.

The purpose of this paper is to study ageing properties of first-passage times of increasing Markov chains. We extend the literature to some new ageing classes, such as the IFR(2), NBU(2), DRLLt and NBULt classes. We also give sufficient conditions in the finite case, that are more efficient computationally, just in terms of the transition matrix K, in the discrete case, or the generator matrix Q, in the continuous case. For the uniformizable, continuous-time Markov processes, we derive conditions in terms of the discrete uniformized Markov chain for the NBU(2) and the NBULt classes. In the last section, a review of the main results in this direction in the literature is given, and we compare some of the conditions stated in this paper with others given in the literature about some other ageing classes. Some examples where these results are applied are given.

Let U1,U2,… be a sequence of i.i.d. random vectors distributed uniformly in a compact plane region A of unit area. Sufficient conditions on the geometry of A are provided under which the Euclidean diameter Dn of the first n of the points converges weakly upon suitable rescaling.

Empirical studies of data traffic in high-speed networks suggest that network traffic exhibits self-similarity and long-range dependence. Cumulative network traffic has been modeled using the so-called ON/OFF model. It was shown that cumulative network traffic can be approximated by either fractional Brownian motion or stable Lévy motion, depending on how many sources are active in the model. In this paper we consider exceedances of a high threshold by the sequence of lengths of ON-periods. If the cumulative network traffic converges to stable Lévy motion, the number of exceedances converges to a Poisson limit. The same holds in the fractional Brownian motion case, provided a very high threshold is used. Finally, we show that the number of exceedances obeys the central limit theorem.

In this paper, we analyse a model of a regular tree loss network that supports two types of calls: unicast calls that require unit capacity on a single link, and multicast calls that require unit capacity on every link emanating from a node. We study the behaviour of the distribution of calls in the core of a large network that has uniform unicast and multicast arrival rates. At sufficiently high multicast call arrival rates the network exhibits a ‘phase transition’, leading to unfairness due to spatial variation in the multicast blocking probabilities. We study the dependence of the phase transition on unicast arrival rates, the coordination number of the network, and the parity of the capacity of edges in the network. Numerical results suggest that the nature of phase transitions is qualitatively different when there are odd and even capacities on the links. These phenomena are seen to persist even with the introduction of nonuniform arrival rates and multihop multicast calls into the network. Finally, we also show the inadequacy of approximations such as the Erlang fixed-point approximations when multicasting is present.

We consider spectrally positive Lévy processes with regularly varying Lévy measure and study conditional limit theorems that describe the way that various rare events occur. Specifically, we are interested in the asymptotic behaviour of the distribution of the path of the Lévy process (appropriately scaled) up to some fixed time, conditionally on the event that the process exceeds a (large) positive value at that time. Another rare event we study is the occurrence of a large maximum value up to a fixed time, and the corresponding asymptotic behaviour of the (scaled) Lévy process path. We study these distributional limit theorems both for a centred Lévy process and for one with negative drift. In the latter case, we also look at the reflected process, which is of importance in applications. Our techniques are based on the explicit representation of the Lévy process in terms of a two-dimensional Poisson random measure and merely use the Poissonian properties and regular variation estimates. We also provide a proof for the asymptotic behaviour of the tail of the stationary distribution for the reflected process. The work is motivated by earlier results for discrete-time random walks (e.g. Durrett (1980) and Asmussen (1996)) and also by their applications in risk and queueing theory.

We consider the Poisson Boolean model of percolation where the percolating shapes are convex regions. By an enhancement argument we strengthen a result of Jonasson (2000) to show that the critical intensity of percolation in two dimensions is minimized among the class of convex shapes of unit area when the percolating shapes are triangles, and, for any other shape, the critical intensity is strictly larger than this minimum value. We also obtain a partial generalization to higher dimensions. In particular, for three dimensions, the critical intensity of percolation is minimized among the class of regular polytopes of unit volume when the percolating shapes are tetrahedrons. Moreover, for any other regular polytope, the critical intensity is strictly larger than this minimum value.

We consider a stochastic version of the Ricker model describing the density of an unstructured isolated population. In particular, we investigate the effects of independently varying the per capita growth rate and the parameter governing density dependent feedback. We derive conditions on the distributions sufficient to guarantee different forms of stochastic stability such as null recurrence or positive recurrence. We find, for example, that null recurrence appears in two widely different scenarios: when there is a mean-zero growth rate or via a growth-catastrophe behaviour.

We give (i) the Cramér power spectral measure of the general shot noise process with random excitation and non-Poisson stationary driving point processes and (ii) the Bartlett power spectral measure of the self-exciting Hawkes point process with random excitation, also called the Hawkes branching point process with random fertility rate. The latter is obtained via the isometry formula for integrals with respect to the canonical martingale measure associated with a marked point process.

Consider a real-valued Itô process X(t) = x + ∫0tμ(s)ds + ∫0tσ(s)dW(s) + A(t) driven by a Brownian motion {W(t) : t > 0}. The controller chooses the real-valued progressively measurable processes μ, σ and A subject to constraints |μ(t)| ≤ μ0(X(t-)) and |σ(t)| ≥ σ0(X(t-)), where the functions μ0 and σ0 are given. The process A is a bounded variation process and |A|(t) represents its total variation on [0,t]. The objective is to minimize the long-term average cost lim supT→∞(1/T)E[|A|(T) + ∫0Th(X(s))ds], where h is a given nonnegative continuous function. An optimal process X* is determined. It turned out that X* is a reflecting diffusion process whose state space is a finite interval [a*, b*]. The optimal drift and diffusion controls are explicitly derived and the optimal bounded variation process A* is determined in terms of local-time processes of X* at the points a* and b*.

The asymptotic behaviour of an occupation-time process associated with alternating renewal processes is investigated in the infinite mean cycle case. The limit theorems obtained extend some asymptotic results proved by Dynkin (1955), Lamperti (1958) and Erickson (1970) for the classical spent lifetime process. Some new phenomena are also presented.

The estimation of a star-shaped set S from a random sample of points X1,…,Xn ∊ S is considered. We show that S can be consistently approximated (with respect to both the Hausdorff metric and the ‘distance in measure’ between sets) by an estimator ŝn defined as a union of balls centered at the sample points with a common radius which can be chosen in such a way that ŝn is also star-shaped. We also prove that, under some mild conditions, the topological boundary of the estimator ŝn converges, in the Hausdorff sense, to that of S; this has a particular interest when the proposed estimation problem is considered from the point of view of statistical image analysis.

Let (Xn) be a sequence of independent, identically distributed random variables, with common distribution function F, possibly discontinuous. We use martingale arguments to connect the number of upper records from (Xn) with sums of minima of related random variables. From this relationship we derive a general strong law for the number of records for a wide class of distributions F, including geometric and Poisson.

Siegmund and Worsley (1995) considered the problem of testing for signals with unknown location and scale in a Gaussian random field defined on ℝN. The test statistic was the maximum of a Gaussian random field in an N+1 dimensional ‘scale space’, N dimensions for location and 1 dimension for the scale of a smoothing filter. Scale space is identical to a continuous wavelet transform with a kernel smoother as the wavelet, though the emphasis here is on signal detection rather than image compression or enhancement. Two methods were used to derive an approximate null distribution for N=2 and N=3: one based on the method of volumes of tubes, the other based on the expected Euler characteristic of the excursion set. The purpose of this paper is two-fold: to show how the latter method can be extended to higher dimensions, and to apply this more general result to χ2 fields. The result of Siegmund and Worsley (1995) then follows as a special case. In this paper the results are applied to the problem of searching for activation in brain images obtained by functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI).