We consider a failure-prone system which operates in continuous time and is subject to condition monitoring at discrete time epochs. It is assumed that the state of the system evolves as a continuous-time Markov process with a finite state space. The observation process is stochastically related to the state process which is unobservable, except for the failure state. Combining the failure information and the information obtained from condition monitoring, and using the change of measure approach, we derive a general recursive filter, and, as special cases, we obtain recursive formulae for the state estimation and other quantities of interest. Up-dated parameter estimates are obtained using the EM algorithm. Some practical prediction problems are discussed and an illustrative example is given using a real dataset.

In order to increase the variety of feasible models for random stationary tessellations (mosaics), two operations acting on tessellations are studied: superposition and iteration (the latter is also referred to as nesting). The superposition of two planar tessellations is the superposition of the edges of the cells of both tessellations. The iteration of tessellations means that one tessellation is chosen as a ‘frame’ tessellation. The single cells of this ‘frame’ are simultaneously and independently subdivided by cut-outs of tessellations of an independent and identically distributed sequence of tessellations. In the present paper, we investigate the limits for sequences of tessellations that are generated by consecutive application of superposition or iteration respectively. Sequences of (renormalised) superpositions of stationary planar tessellations converge weakly to Poisson line tessellations. For consecutive iteration the notion of stability of distributions is adapted and necessary conditions are formulated for those tessellations which may occur as limits.

Joseph Mecke, Professor of Mathematics at the Friedrich Schiller University, Jena, celebrates his 65th birthday on 18 February 2003. To commemorate this happy occasion, the signatories invited some colleagues, friends and former students to honour Joseph as a mathematician, teacher and research worker by submitting research articles to this issue of Advances in Applied Probability. We trust that the following papers will pay homage to the influence he has exerted in point process theory and stochastic geometry during his distinguished career.

Generalizing Matérn's (1960) two hard-core processes, marked point processes are considered as models for systems of varying-sized, nonoverlapping convex grains. A Poisson point process is generated and grains are placed at the points. The grains are supposed to have varying sizes but the same shape as a fixed convex grain, with spheres as an important special case. The pattern is thinned so that no grains overlap. We consider the thinning probability of a ‘typical point’ under various thinning procedures, the volume fraction of the resulting system of grains, the relation between the intensity of the point processes before and after thinning, and the corresponding size distributions. The study is inspired by problems in material fatigue, where cracks are supposed to be initiated by large defects.

Among the disks centered at a typical particle of the two-dimensional Poisson-Voronoi tessellation, let Rm be the radius of the largest included within the polygonal cell associated with that particle and RM be the radius of the smallest containing that polygonal cell. In this article, we obtain the joint distribution of Rm and RM. This result is derived from the covering properties of the circle due to Stevens, Siegel and Holst. The same method works for studying the Crofton cell associated with the Poisson line process in the plane. The computation of the conditional probabilities P{RM ≥ r + s | Rm = r} reveals the circular property of the Poisson-Voronoi typical cells (as well as the Crofton cells) having a ‘large’ in-disk.

Let X be a one-dimensional strong Markov process with continuous sample paths. Using Volterra-Stieltjes integral equation techniques we investigate Hölder continuity and differentiability of first passage time distributions of X with respect to continuous lower and upper moving boundaries. Under mild assumptions on the transition function of X we prove the existence of a continuous first passage time density to one-sided differentiable moving boundaries and derive a new integral equation for this density. We apply our results to Brownian motion and its nonrandom Markovian transforms, in particular to the Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process.

For nonnegative random variables X and Y we write X ≤TTTY if ∫0F-1(p)(1-F(x))dx ≤ ∫0G-1(p)(1-G(x))dx all p ∈ (0,1), where F and G denote the distribution functions of X and Y respectively. The purpose of this article is to study some properties of this new stochastic order. New properties of the excess wealth (or right-spread) order, and of other related stochastic orders, are also obtained. Applications in the statistical theory of reliability and in economics are included.

In various fields, such as teletraffic and economics, measured time series have been reported to adhere to multifractal scaling. Classical cascading measures possess multifractal scaling, but their increments form a nonstationary process. To overcome this problem, we introduce a construction of random multifractal measures based on iterative multiplication of stationary stochastic processes, a special form of T-martingales. We study the ℒ2-convergence, nondegeneracy, and continuity of the limit process. Establishing a power law for its moments, we obtain a formula for the multifractal spectrum and hint at how to prove the full formalism.

Galton-Watson forests consisting of N roots (or trees) and n nonroot vertices are studied. The limit distributions of the number of leaves in such a forest are obtained. By a leaf we mean a vertex from which there are no arcs emanating.

Given sets C and R in d-dimensional space, take a constant intensity Poisson point process on R; the associated scan statistic S is the maximum number of Poisson points in any translate of C. As R becomes large with C fixed, bounded and open but otherwise arbitrary, the distribution of S becomes concentrated on at most two adjacent integers. A similar result holds when the underlying Poisson process is replaced by a binomial point process, and these results can be extended to a large class of nonuniform distributions. Also, similar results hold for other finite-range scanning schemes such as the clique number of a geometric graph.

In this paper, we study the first instant when Brownian motion either spends consecutively more than a certain time above a certain level, or reaches another level. This stopping time generalizes the ‘Parisian’ stopping times that were introduced by Chesney et al. (1997). Using excursion theory, we derive the Laplace transform of this stopping time. We apply this result to the valuation of investment projects with a delay constraint, but with an alternative: pay a higher cost and get the project started immediately

In the present study, we establish the existence of site percolation in the Gabriel graph for Poisson and hard-core stationary point processes.

The paper concerns a class of discounted restless bandit problems which possess an indexability property. Conservation laws yield an expression for the reward suboptimality of a general policy. These results are utilised to study the closeness to optimality of an index policy for a special class of simple and natural dual speed restless bandits for which indexability is guaranteed. The strong performance of the index policy is confirmed by a computational study.

Distributional fixed points of a Poisson shot noise transform (for nonnegative and nonincreasing response functions bounded by 1) are characterized. The tail behavior of fixed points is described. Typically they have either exponential moments or their tails are proportional to a power function, with exponent greater than −1. The uniqueness of fixed points is also discussed. Finally, it is proved that in most cases fixed points are absolutely continuous, apart from the possible atom at zero.

The goal of this paper is to investigate properties of statistical procedures based on numbers of different patterns by using generating functions for the probabilities of a prescribed number of occurrences of given patterns in a random text. The asymptotic formulae are derived for the expected value of the number of words occurring a given number of times and for the covariance matrix. The form of the optimal linear test based on these statistics is established. These problems appear in testing for the randomness of a string of binary bits, DNA sequencing, source coding, synchronization, quality control protocols, etc. Indeed, the probabilities of repeated (overlapping) patterns are important in information theory (the second-order properties of relative frequencies) and molecular biology problems (finding patterns with unexpectedly low or high frequencies).