A new treatment of second-order self-similarity and asymptotic self-similarity for stationary discrete time series is given, based on the fixed points of a renormalisation operator with normalisation factors which are not assumed to be power laws. A complete classification of fixed points is provided, consisting of the fractional noise and one other class. A convenient variance time function approach to process characterisation is used to exhibit large explicit families of processes asymptotic to particular fixed points. A natural, general definition of discrete long-range dependence is provided and contrasted with common alternatives. The closely related discrete form of regular variation is defined, its main properties given, and its connection to discrete self-similarity explained. Folkloric results on long-range dependence are proved or disproved rigorously.

This paper studies path lengths in random binary search trees under the random permutation model. It is known that the total path length, when properly normalized, converges almost surely to a nondegenerate random variable Z. The limit distribution is commonly referred to as the ‘quicksort distribution’. For the class 𝒜m of finite binary trees with at most m nodes we partition the external nodes of the binary search tree according to the largest tree that each external node belongs to. Thus, the external path length is divided into parts, each part associated with a tree in 𝒜m. We show that the vector of these path lengths, after normalization, converges almost surely to a constant vector times Z.

A new class of models for inhomogeneous spatial point processes is introduced. These locally scaled point processes are modifications of homogeneous template point processes, having the property that regions with different intensities differ only by a scale factor. This is achieved by replacing volume measures used in the density with locally scaled analogues defined by a location-dependent scaling function. The new approach is particularly appealing for modelling inhomogeneous Markov point processes. Distance-interaction and shot noise weighted Markov point processes are discussed in detail. It is shown that the locally scaled versions are again Markov and that locally the Papangelou conditional intensity of the new process behaves like that of a global scaling of the homogeneous process. Approximations are suggested that simplify calculation of the density, for example, in simulation. For sequential point processes, an alternative and simpler definition of local scaling is proposed.

Continuous-space-time branching processes (CSBP) are investigated in order to model random energy cascades. CSBPs are based on spectrally positive Lévy processes and, as such, are characterized by their corresponding Laplace exponents. Special emphasis is put on the CSBPs of Feller, Lamperti and Neveu and on their Poisson point process representations. The Neveu model (either supercritical or subcritical) is of particular interest in physics for its connection with the random energy model of Derrida, as revisited by Ruelle. Exploiting some connections between the partition functions of energy and the Poisson-Dirichlet distributions of Pitman and Yor, some information on the zero-temperature limit is extracted. Finally, for the subcritical versions of the three models, we compute the distribution of some of their interesting features: extinction time and probability, area under the profile (total energy) and width (maximal energy).

Generalizing the standard frailty models of survival analysis, we propose to model frailty as a weighted Lévy process. Hence, the frailty of an individual is not a fixed quantity, but develops over time. Formulae for the population hazard and survival functions are derived. The power variance function Lévy process is a prominent example. In many cases, notably for compound Poisson processes, quasi-stationary distributions of survivors may arise. Quasi-stationarity implies limiting population hazard rates that are constant, in spite of the continual increase of the individual hazards. A brief discussion is given of the biological relevance of this finding.

This paper studies the first passage times to flat boundaries for a double exponential jump diffusion process, which consists of a continuous part driven by a Brownian motion and a jump part with jump sizes having a double exponential distribution. Explicit solutions of the Laplace transforms, of both the distribution of the first passage times and the joint distribution of the process and its running maxima, are obtained. Because of the overshoot problems associated with general jump diffusion processes, the double exponential jump diffusion process offers a rare case in which analytical solutions for the first passage times are feasible. In addition, it leads to several interesting probabilistic results. Numerical examples are also given. The finance applications include pricing barrier and lookback options.

A known gamma-type result for the Poisson process states that certain domains defined through configuration of the points (or ‘particles’) of the process have volumes which are gamma distributed. By proving the corresponding sequential gamma-type result, we show that in some cases such a domain allows for decomposition into subdomains each having independent exponentially distributed volumes. We consider other examples—based on the Voronoi and Delaunay tessellations—where a natural decomposition does not produce subdomains with exponentially distributed volumes. A simple algorithm for the construction of a typical Voronoi flower arises in this work. In our theoretical development, we generalize the classical theorem of Slivnyak, relating it to the strong Markov property of the Poisson process and to a result of Mecke and Muche (1995). This new theorem has interest beyond the specific problems being considered here.

Denote by αt(μ) the probability law of At(μ) = ∫0texp(2(Bs+μ s))ds for a Brownian motion {Bs, s ≥ 0}. It is well known that αt(μ) is of interest in a number of domains, e.g. mathematical finance, diffusion processes in random environments, stochastic analysis on hyperbolic spaces and so on, but that it has complicated expressions. Recently, Dufresne obtained some remarkably simple expressions for αt(0) and αt(1), as well as an equally remarkable relationship between αt(μ) and αt(ν) for two different drifts μ and ν. In this paper, hinging on previous results about αt(μ), we give different proofs of Dufresne's results and present extensions of them for the processes {At(μ), t ≥ 0}.

We study percolation and Ising models defined on generalizations of quad-trees used in multiresolution image analysis. These can be viewed as trees for which each mother vertex has 2d daughter vertices, and for which daughter vertices are linked together in d-dimensional Euclidean configurations. Retention probabilities and interaction strengths differ according to whether the relevant bond is between mother and daughter or between neighbours. Bounds are established which locate phase transitions and show the existence of a coexistence phase for the percolation model. Results are extended to the corresponding Ising model using the Fortuin-Kasteleyn random-cluster representation.

Our aim is to estimate the volume-weighted mean of the volumes of three-dimensional ‘particles’ (compact, not-necessarily-convex subsets) from plane sections of the particle population. The standard stereological technique is to place test lines in the plane section, and measure cubed intercept lengths with the two-dimensional particle profiles. This paper discusses more efficient estimators obtained by integrating over all possible placements of the test line. We prove that these estimators have smaller variance than the line transect estimators, and indeed are related to them by the Rao-Blackwell process. In the improved estimators, the cubed intercept length is replaced by a moment of the distance between two points in the section profile. This can be computed as a moment of the set covariance function, which in turn is computable using the fast Fourier transform. We also derive an isoperimetric-type inequality between the improved estimator and the area-weighted 3/2th moment of the profile areas. Finally, we present two practical applications to particles of silicon carbide and to synaptic boutons in brain tissue. We estimate the variance of the technique and the gain in efficiency over line transect techniques; the efficiency improvement appears to be as much as one order of magnitude.

Consider N towers each made up of a number of counters. At each step a tower is chosen at random, a counter removed which is then added to another tower also chosen at random. The probability distribution for the time needed to empty one of the towers is obtained in the case N = 3. Arguments are set forward as to why no simple formulae can be expected for N > 3. An asymptotic expression for the mean time before one of the towers becomes empty is derived in the case of four towers when they all initially contain a comparably large number of counters. We then study related problems, in particular the ruin problem for three players. Here we use simple martingale methodology as well as a solution proposed by T. S. Ferguson for a slightly modified problem. Throughout the paper it is our main objective to shed light on the reasons why the case N > 3 is so substantially different from the case N ≤ 3.

We define a class of tessellation models based on perturbing or deforming standard tessellations such as the Voronoi tessellation. We show how distributions over this class of ‘deformed’ tessellations can be used to define prior distributions for models based on tessellations, and how inference for such models can be carried out using Markov chain Monte Carlo methods; stability properties of the algorithms are investigated. Our approach applies not only to fixed dimension problems, but also to variable dimension problems, in which the number of cells in the tessellation is unknown. We illustrate our methods with two real examples. The first relates to reconstructing animal territories, represented by the individual cells of a tessellation, from observation of an inhomogeneous Poisson point process. The second example involves the analysis of an image of a cross-section through a sample of metal, with the tessellation modelling the micro-crystalline structure of the metal.

This paper introduces a new graph constructed from a point process. The idea is to connect a point with its nearest neighbour, then to the second nearest and continue this process until the point belongs to the interior of the convex hull of these nearest neighbours. The number of such neighbours is called the degree of a point. We derive the distribution of the degree of the typical point in a Poisson process, prove a central limit theorem for the sum of degrees, and propose an edge-corrected estimator of the distribution of the degree that is unbiased for a stationary Poisson process. Simulation studies show that this degree is a useful concept that allows the separation of clustering and repulsive behaviour of point processes.

This paper studies the law of any real powers of the integral of geometric Brownian motion over finite time intervals. As its main results, an apparently new integral representation is derived and its interrelations with the integral representations for these laws originating by Yor and by Dufresne are established. In fact, our representation is found to furnish what seems to be a natural bridge between these other two representations. Our results are obtained by enhancing the Hartman-Watson Ansatz of Yor, based on Bessel processes and the Laplace transform, by complex analytic techniques. Systematizing this idea in order to overcome the limits of Yor's theory seems to be the main methodological contribution of the paper.

Sums of independent random variables concentrated on the same finite discrete, not necessarily lattice, set of points are approximated by compound Poisson distributions and signed compound Poisson measures. Such approximations can be more accurate than the normal distribution. Short asymptotic expansions are constructed.

Distance measurements are useful tools in stochastic geometry. For a Boolean model Z in ℝd, the classical contact distribution functions allow the estimation of important geometric parameters of Z. In two previous papers, several types of generalized contact distributions have been investigated and applied to stationary and nonstationary Boolean models. Here, we consider random sets Z which are generated as the union sets of Poisson processes X of k-flats, k ∈ {0, …, d-1}, and study distances from a fixed point or a fixed convex body to Z. In addition, we also consider the distances from a given flat or a flag consisting of flats to the individual members of X and investigate the associated process of nearest points in the flats of X. In particular, we discuss to which extent the directional distribution of X is determined by this point process. Some of our results are presented for more general stationary processes of flats.

We consider random recursive fractals and prove fine results about their local behaviour. We show that for a class of random recursive fractals the usual multifractal spectrum is trivial in that all points have the same local dimension. However, by examining the local behaviour of the measure at typical points in the set, we establish the size of fine fluctuations in the measure. The results are proved using a large deviation principle for a class of general branching processes which extends the known large deviation estimates for the supercritical Galton-Watson process.

Results about stationary Poisson hyperplane processes and the induced hyperplane mosaics are extended to the case where, instead of stationarity, it is only assumed that the intensity measure has a (possibly continuous) density with respect to some translation-invariant measure. Intensities and quermass densities, which are constant in the stationary case, are then replaced by functions. In a similar way, the associated zonoid (Matheron's Steiner convex set) is generalized.