The average delay for the GI/G/1 queue is often approximated as a function of the first two moments of interarrival and service times. For highly irregular arrivals, however, it varies widely among queues with the same first two moments, even in moderately heavy traffic. Empirically, it decreases as the interarrival time third moment increases. For GI/M/1 queues, a heavy-traffic expression for the average delay with this property has been previously obtained. The method, however, sheds little light on why the third moment arises. We analyze the equilibrium idle-period distribution in heavy traffic using real-variable methods. For GI/M/1 queues, we derive the above heavy-traffic result and also obtain conditions under which it is either an upper or lower bound. Our approach provides an intuitive explanation for the result and also strongly suggests that similar results should hold for general service. This is supported by empirical evidence. For any given service distribution, it has been conjectured that the expected delay under pure-batch arrivals, where interarrival times are scaled Bernoulli random variables, is an upper bound on the average delay over all interarrival distributions with the same first two moments. We investigate this conjecture and show, among other things, that pure-batch arrivals have the smallest third moment. We obtain conditions under which this conjecture is true and present a counterexample where it fails. Arrivals that arise as overflows from other queues can be highly irregular. We show that interoverflow distributions in a certain class have decreasing failure rate.

The structured coalescent is a continuous-time Markov chain which describes the genealogy of a sample of homologous genes from a subdivided population. Assuming this model, some results are proved relating to the genealogy of a pair of genes and the extent of subpopulation differentiation, which are valid under certain graph-theoretic symmetry and regularity conditions on the structure of the population. We first review and extend earlier results stating conditions under which the mean time since the most recent common ancestor of a pair of genes from any single subpopulation is independent of the migration rate and equal to that of two genes from an unstructured population of the same total size. Assuming the infinite alleles model of neutral mutation with a small mutation rate, we then prove a simple relationship between the migration rate and the value of Wright's coefficient FST for a pair of neighbouring subpopulations, which does not depend on the precise structure of the population provided that this is sufficiently symmetric.

We discuss long-memory properties and the partial sums process of the AR(1) process {Xt, t ∈ 𝕫} with random coefficient {at, t ∈ 𝕫} taking independent values Aj ∈ [0,1] on consecutive intervals of a stationary renewal process with a power-law interrenewal distribution. In the case when the distribution of generic Aj has either an atom at the point a=1 or a beta-type probability density in a neighborhood of a=1, we show that the covariance function of {Xt} decays hyperbolically with exponent between 0 and 1, and that a suitably normalized partial sums process of {Xt} weakly converges to a stable Lévy process.

A spectral theory for stationary random closed sets is developed and provided with a sound mathematical basis. The definition and a proof of the existence of the Bartlett spectrum of a stationary random closed set as well as the proof of a Wiener-Khinchin theorem for the power spectrum are used to two ends. First, well-known second-order characteristics like the covariance can be estimated faster than usual via frequency space. Second, the Bartlett spectrum and the power spectrum can be used as second-order characteristics in frequency space. Examples show that in some cases information about the random closed set is easier to obtain from these characteristics in frequency space than from their real-world counterparts.

Shot noise Cox processes constitute a large class of Cox and Poisson cluster processes in ℝd, including Neyman-Scott, Poisson-gamma and shot noise G Cox processes. It is demonstrated that, due to the structure of such models, a number of useful and general results can easily be established. The focus is on the probabilistic aspects with a view to statistical applications, particularly results for summary statistics, reduced Palm distributions, simulation with or without edge effects, conditional simulation of the intensity function and local and spatial Markov properties.

The almost sure convergence of the maximum of a strictly stationary sequence is studied. We show that, if a particular mixing condition, related to the asymptotic independence of maxima defined by O'Brien, is satisfied, then the maximum behaves asymptotically like the quantile F←(1-1/n) whenever the marginal tail distribution decreases quickly enough. A necessary condition for the almost sure convergence of the maximum is derived. Applications are also discussed.

In this paper we derive conditions on the internal wear process under which the resulting time to failure model will be of the simple collapsible form when the usage accumulation history is available. We suppose that failure occurs when internal wear crosses a certain threshold or a traumatic event causes the item to fail. We model the infinitesimal increment in internal wear as a function of time, accumulated internal wear, and usage history, and we derive conditions on this function to get a collapsible model for the distribution of time to failure given the usage history. We reach the conclusion that collapsible models form the subset of accelerated failure time models with time-varying covariates for which the time transformation function satisfies certain simple properties.

We consider a queue fed by a mixture of light-tailed and heavy-tailed traffic. The two traffic flows are served in accordance with the generalized processor sharing (GPS) discipline. GPS-based scheduling algorithms, such as weighted fair queueing (WFQ), have emerged as an important mechanism for achieving service differentiation in integrated networks. We derive the asymptotic workload behaviour of the light-tailed traffic flow under the assumption that its GPS weight is larger than its traffic intensity. The GPS mechanism ensures that the workload is bounded above by that in an isolated system with the light-tailed flow served in isolation at a constant rate equal to its GPS weight. We show that the workload distribution is, in fact, asymptotically equivalent to that in the isolated system, multiplied by a certain prefactor, which accounts for the interaction with the heavy-tailed flow. Specifically, the prefactor represents the probability that the heavy-tailed flow is backlogged long enough for the light-tailed flow to reach overflow. The results provide crucial qualitative insight in the typical overflow scenario.

Estimation methods for the directional measure of a stationary planar random set Z, based only on discretized realizations of Z, are discussed. Properties of the discretized set that can be derived by comparing neighbouring grid points are used. Larger grid configurations of more than two grid points are considered. It is shown that the probabilities of observing the various types of configurations can be expressed in terms of the first contact distribution function of Z (with a finite structuring element). An important prerequisite result concerning deterministic dilation areas is also established. The inference on the mean normal measure based on 2×2 configurations is discussed in detail.

We determine the exact large-buffer asymptotics for a mixture of light-tailed and heavy-tailed input flows. Earlier studies have found a ‘reduced-load equivalence’ in situations where the peak rate of the heavy-tailed flows plus the mean rate of the light-tailed flows is larger than the service rate. In that case, the workload is asymptotically equivalent to that in a reduced system, which consists of a certain ‘dominant’ subset of the heavy-tailed flows, with the service rate reduced by the mean rate of all other flows. In the present paper, we focus on the opposite case where the peak rate of the heavy-tailed flows plus the mean rate of the light-tailed flows is smaller than the service rate. Under mild assumptions, we prove that the workload distribution is asymptotically equivalent to that in a somewhat ‘dual’ reduced system, multiplied by a certain prefactor. The reduced system now consists of only the light-tailed flows, with the service rate reduced by the peak rate of the heavy-tailed flows. The prefactor represents the probability that the heavy-tailed flows have sent at their peak rate for more than a certain amount of time, which may be interpreted as the ‘time to overflow’ for the light-tailed flows in the reduced system. The results provide crucial insight into the typical overflow scenario.

In this article we prove local convergence for a Boolean model of shells conditioned by the noncovering of the origin towards the thick hyperplane Poisson process in the Euclidean space. The existing results of Hall as well as the convergence theorems proved by Paroux or Molchanov concerned the zero-width process and the connected component of the unfilled region of the origin. Our results deal with the convergence in any given window of the space, with the earlier results of Paroux and Molchanov as a corollary.

Let T = (T1, T2,…) be a sequence of real random variables with ∑j=1∞1|Tj|>0 < ∞ almost surely. We consider the following equation for distributions μ: W ≅ ∑j=1∞TjWj, where W, W1, W2,… have distribution μ and T, W1, W2,… are independent. We show that the representation of general solutions is a mixture of certain infinitely divisible distributions. This result can be applied to investigate the existence of symmetric solutions for Tj ≥ 0: essentially under the condition that E ∑j=1∞Tj2 log+Tj2 < ∞, the existence of nontrivial symmetric solutions is exactly determined, revealing a connection with the existence of positive solutions of a related fixed-point equation. Furthermore, we derive results about a special class of canonical symmetric solutions including statements about Lebesgue density and moments.

A continuum growth model is introduced. The state at time t, St, is a subset of ℝd and consists of a connected union of randomly sized Euclidean balls, which emerge from outbursts at their centre points. An outburst occurs somewhere in St after an exponentially distributed time with expected value |St|-1 and the location of the outburst is uniformly distributed over St. The main result is that, if the distribution of the radii of the outburst balls has bounded support, then St grows linearly and St/t has a nonrandom shape as t → ∞. Due to rotational invariance the asymptotic shape must be a Euclidean ball.

The covariance C(r), r ≥ 0, of a stationary isotropic random closed set Ξ is typically complicated to evaluate. This is the reason that an exponential approximation formula for C(r) has been widely used in the literature, which matches C(0) and C(1)(0), and in many cases also limr→∞C(r). However, for 0 < r < ∞, the accuracy of this approximation is not very high in general. In the present paper, we derive representation formulae for the covariance C(r) and its derivative C(1)(r) using Palm calculus, where r ≥ 0 is arbitrary. As a consequence, an explicit expression is obtained for the second derivative C(2)(0). These results are then used to get a refined exponential approximation for C(r), which additionally matches the second derivative C(2)(0).

The iteration of random tessellations in ℝd is considered, where each cell of an initial tessellation is further subdivided into smaller cells by so-called component tessellations. Sufficient conditions for stationarity and isotropy of iterated tessellations are given. Formulae are derived for the intensities of their facet processes, and for the expected intrinsic volumes of their typical facets. Particular emphasis is put on two special cases: superposition and nesting of tessellations. Bernoulli thinning of iterated tessellations is also considered.

This work is devoted to asymptotic properties of singularly perturbed Markov chains in discrete time. The motivation stems from applications in discrete-time control and optimization problems, manufacturing and production planning, stochastic networks, and communication systems, in which finite-state Markov chains are used to model large-scale and complex systems. To reduce the complexity of the underlying system, the states in each recurrent class are aggregated into a single state. Although the aggregated process may not be Markovian, its continuous-time interpolation converges to a continuous-time Markov chain whose generator is a function determined by the invariant measures of the recurrent states. Sequences of occupation measures are defined. A mean square estimate on a sequence of unscaled occupation measures is obtained. Furthermore, it is proved that a suitably scaled sequence of occupation measures converges to a switching diffusion.

We consider the asymptotic behaviour of a random walk when it exits from a symmetric region of the form {(x, n) :|x| ≤ rnb} as r → ∞. In order to be sure that this actually occurs, we treat only the case where the power b lies in the interval [0,½), and we further assume a condition that prevents the probability of exiting at either boundary tending to 0. Under these restrictions we establish necessary and sufficient conditions for the pth moment of the overshoot to be O(rq), and for the overshoot to be tight, as r → ∞.