Let ξ, ξ1, ξ2,… be a sequence of independent and identically distributed random variables, and let Sn=ξ1+⋯+ξn and Mn=maxk≤nSk. Let τ=min{n≥1: Sn≤0}. We assume that ξ has a heavy-tailed distribution and negative, finite mean E(ξ)<0. We find the asymptotics of P{Mτ ∈ (x, x+T]} as x→∞, for a fixed, positive constant T.

In this paper we develop a constructive approach to studying continuously and discretely sampled functionals of Lévy processes. Estimates for the rate of convergence of the discretely sampled functionals to the continuously sampled functionals are derived, reducing the study of the latter to that of the former. Laguerre reduction series for the discretely sampled functionals are developed, reducing their study to that of the moment generating function of the pertinent Lévy processes and to that of the moments of these processes in particular. The results are applied to questions of contingent claim valuation, such as the explicit valuation of Asian options, and illustrated in the case of generalized inverse Gaussian Lévy processes.

The volume fraction of the intact grains of the dead leaves model with spherical grains of equal size is 2−d in d dimensions. This is the volume fraction of the original Stienen model. Here we consider some variants of these models: the dead leaves model with grains of a fixed convex shape and possibly random sizes and random orientations, and a generalisation of the Stienen model with convex grains growing at random speeds. The main result of this paper is that if the radius distribution in the dead leaves model equals the speed distribution in the Stienen model, then the volume fractions of the two models are the same in this case also. Furthermore, we show that for grains of a fixed shape and orientation, centrally symmetric sets give the highest volume fraction, while simplices give the lowest. If the grains are randomly rotated, then the volume fraction achieves its highest value only for spheres.

A Euclidean first passage percolation model describing the competing growth between k different types of infection is considered. We focus on the long-time behavior of this multitype growth process and we derive multitype shape results related to its morphology.

Blackwell (1951), in his seminal work on comparison of experiments, ordered two experiments using a dilation ordering: one experiment, Y, is ‘more spread out’ in the sense of dilation than another one, X, if E(c(Y))≥E(c(X)) for all convex functions c. He showed that this ordering is equivalent to two other orderings, namely (i) a total time on test ordering and (ii) a martingale relationship E(Yʹ | Xʹ)=Xʹ, where (Xʹ,Yʹ) has a joint distribution with the same marginals as X and Y. These comparisons are generalized to balayage orderings that are defined in terms of generalized convex functions. These balayage orderings are equivalent to (i) iterated total integral of survival orderings and (ii) martingale-type orderings which we refer to as k-mart orderings. These comparisons can arise naturally in model fitting and data confidentiality contexts.

We apply conjugate duality to establish the existence of optimal portfolios in an asset-allocation problem, with the goal of minimizing the variance of the final wealth which results from trading over a fixed, finite horizon in a continuous-time, complete market, subject to the constraints that the expected final wealth equal a specified target value and the portfolio of the investor (defined by the dollar amount invested in each stock) take values in a given closed, convex set. The asset prices are modelled by Itô processes, for which the market parameters are random processes adapted to the information filtration available to the investor. We synthesize a dual optimization problem and establish a set of optimality relations, similar to the Euler-Lagrange and transversality relations of calculus of variations, giving necessary and sufficient conditions for the given optimization problem and its dual to each have a solution, with zero duality gap. We then solve these relations, to establish the existence of an optimal portfolio.

We consider the portfolio optimization problem of maximizing the asymptotic growth rate under a combination of fixed and proportional costs. Expressing the asymptotic growth rate in terms of the risky fraction process, the problem can be transformed to that of controlling a diffusion in one dimension. Then we use the corresponding quasivariational inequalities to obtain the explicit shape together with the existence of an optimal impulse control strategy. This optimal strategy is given by only four parameters: two for the stopping boundaries and two for the new risky fractions the investor chooses at these times.

The ‘square root formula’ in the Internet transmission control protocol (TCP) states that if the probability p of packet loss becomes small and there is independence between packets, then the stationary distribution of the congestion window W is such that the distribution of W√p is almost independent of p and is completely characterizable. This paper gives an elementary proof of the convergence of the stationary distributions for a much wider class of processes that includes classical TCP as well as T. Kelly's ‘scalable TCP’. This paper also gives stochastic dominance results that translate to a rate of convergence.

In this paper our object is to show that a certain class of nonstationary random processes can locally be approximated by stationary processes. The class of processes we are considering includes the time-varying autoregressive conditional heteroscedastic and generalised autoregressive conditional heteroscedastic processes, amongst others. The measure of deviation from stationarity can be expressed as a function of a derivative random process. This derivative process inherits many properties common to stationary processes. We also show that the derivative processes obtained here have alpha-mixing properties.

Autoregressive arrival models are described by a few parameters and provide a simple means to obtain analytical models for matching the first- and second-order statistics of measured data. We consider a discrete-time queueing system where the service time of a customer occupies one slot and the arrival process is governed by a discrete autoregressive process of order 1 (a DAR(1) process) which is characterized by an arbitrary stationary batch size distribution and a correlation coefficient. The tail behaviors of the queue length and the waiting time distributions are examined. In particular, it is shown that, unlike in the classical queueing models with Markovian arrival processes, the correlation in the DAR(1) model results in nongeometric tail behavior of the queue length (and the waiting time) if the stationary distribution of the DAR(1) process has infinite support. A complete characterization of the geometric tail behavior of the queue length (and the waiting time) is presented, showing the impact of the stationary distribution and the correlation coefficient when the stationary distribution of the DAR(1) process has finite support. It is also shown that the stationary distribution of the queue length (and the waiting time) has a tail of regular variation with index -β − 1, by finding an explicit expression for the tail asymptotics when the stationary distribution of the DAR(1) process has a tail of regular variation with index -β.

The existence and uniqueness of maximum likelihood estimators for the time and range parameters in random sequential adsorption models are investigated.

We propose a simple model for interaction between gene candidates in the two strands of bacterial DNA (deoxyribonucleic acid). Our model assumes that ‘final’ genes appear in one of the two strands, that they do not overlap (in bacteria there is only a small percentage of overlap), and that the final genes maximize the occupancy rate, which is defined to be the proportion of the genome occupied by coding zones. We are more concerned with describing the organization and distribution of genes in bacterial DNA than with the very hard problem of identifying genes. To this end, an algorithm for selecting the final genes according to the previously outlined maximization criterion is proposed. We study the graphical and probabilistic properties of the model resulting from applying the maximization procedure to a Markovian representation of the genic and intergenic zones within the DNA strands, develop theoretical bounds on the occupancy rate (which, in our view, is a rather intractable quantity), and use the model to compute quantities of relevance to the Escherichia coli genome and compare these to annotation data. Although this work focuses on genomic modelling, we point out that the proposed model is not restricted to applications in this setting. It also serves to model other resource allocation problems.

We consider growing random recursive trees in random environments, in which at each step a new vertex is attached (by an edge of random length) to an existing tree vertex according to a probability distribution that assigns the tree vertices masses proportional to their random weights. The main aim of the paper is to study the asymptotic behaviour of the distance from the newly inserted vertex to the tree's root and that of the mean numbers of outgoing vertices as the number of steps tends to ∞. Most of the results are obtained under the assumption that the random weights have a product form with independent, identically distributed factors.