By establishing general relationships between branching transformations (Harris-Sevastyanov, Lamperti-Ney, time reversals, and Asmussen-Sigman) and Markov chain transforms (Doob's h-transform, time reversal, and the cone dual), we discover a deeper connection between these transformations with harmonic functions and invariant measures for the process itself and its space-time process. We give a classification of the duals into Doob's h-transform, pathwise time reversal, and cone reversal. Explicit results are obtained for the linear fractional offspring distribution. Remarkably, for this case, all reversals turn out to be a Galton-Watson process with a dual reproduction law and eternal particle or some kind of immigration. In particular, we generalize a result of Klebaner and Sagitov (2002) in which only a geometric offspring distribution was considered. A new graphical representation in terms of an associated simple random walk on N2 allows for illuminating picture proofs of our main results concerning transformations of the linear fractional Galton-Watson process.

We study a service facility modeled as a queueing system with finite or infinite capacity. Arriving customers enter if there is room in the facility and if they are willing to pay the price posted by the service provider. Customers belong to one of a finite number of classes that have different willingnesses-to-pay. Moreover, there is a penalty for congestion in the facility in the form of state-dependent holding costs. The service provider may advertise class-specific prices that may fluctuate over time. We show the existence of a unique optimal stationary pricing policy in a continuous and unbounded action space that maximizes the long-run average profit per unit time. We determine an expression for this policy under certain conditions. We also analyze the structure and the properties of this policy.

Large deviation estimates are derived for sums of random variables with certain dependence structures, including finite population statistics and random graphs. The argument is based on Stein's method, but with a novel modification of Stein's equation inspired by the Cramér transform.

A stack is a structural unit in an RNA structure that is formed by pairs of hydrogen bonded nucleotides. Paired nucleotides are scored according to their ability to hydrogen bond. We consider stack/hairpin-loop structures for a sequence of independent and identically distributed random variables with values in a finite alphabet, and we show how to obtain an asymptotic Poisson distribution of the number of stack/hairpin-loop structures with a score exceeding a high threshold, given that we count in a proper, declumped way. From this result we obtain an asymptotic Gumbel distribution of the maximal stack score. We also provide examples focusing on the computation of constants that enter in the asymptotic distributions. Finally, we discuss the close relation to existing results for local alignment.

A stochastic model of a dynamic marker array in which markers could disappear, duplicate, and move relative to its original position is constructed to reflect on the nature of long DNA sequences. The sequence changes of deletions, duplications, and displacements follow the stochastic rules: (i) the original distribution of the marker array {…, X−2, X−1, X0, X1, X2, …} is a Poisson process on the real line; (ii) each marker is replicated l times; replication or loss of marker points occur independently; (iii) each replicated point is independently and randomly displaced by an amount Y relative to its original position, with the Y displacements sampled from a continuous density g(y). Limiting distributions for the maximal and minimal statistics of the r-scan lengths (collection of distances between r + 1 successive markers) for the l-shift model are derived with the aid of the Chen-Stein method and properties of Poisson processes.

The covariogram gK(x) of a convex body K ⊆ Ed is the function which associates to each x ∈ Ed the volume of the intersection of K with K + x, where Ed denotes the Euclidean d-dimensional space. Matheron (1986) asked whether gK determines K, up to translations and reflections in a point. Positive answers to Matheron's question have been obtained for large classes of planar convex bodies, while for d ≥ 3 there are both positive and negative results. One of the purposes of this paper is to sharpen some of the known results on Matheron's conjecture indicating how much of the covariogram information is needed to get the uniqueness of determination. We indicate some subsets of the support of the covariogram, with arbitrarily small Lebesgue measure, such that the covariogram, restricted to those subsets, identifies certain geometric properties of the body. These results are more precise in the planar case, but some of them, both positive and negative ones, are proved for bodies of any dimension. Moreover some results regard most convex bodies, in the Baire category sense. Another purpose is to extend the class of convex bodies for which Matheron's conjecture is confirmed by including all planar convex bodies possessing two nondegenerate boundary arcs being reflections of each other.

Let {(Xn, Sn), n ≥ 0} be a Markov random walk in which Xn takes values in a general state space and Sn takes values on the real line R. In this paper we present some results that are useful in the study of asymptotic approximations of boundary crossing problems for Markov random walks. The main results are asymptotic expansions on moments of the first ladder height in Markov random walks with small positive drift. In order to establish the asymptotic expansions we study a uniform Markov renewal theorem, which relates to the rate of convergence for the distribution of overshoot, and present an analysis of the covariance between the first passage time and the overshoot.

The problem of optimal dividends paid until absorbtion at zero is considered for a rather general diffusion model. With each dividend payment there is a proportional cost and a fixed cost. It is shown that there can be essentially three different solutions depending on the model parameters and the costs. (i) Whenever assets reach a barrier y*, they are reduced to y* - δ* through a dividend payment, and the process continues. (ii) Whenever assets reach a barrier y*, everything is paid out as dividends and the process terminates. (iii) There is no optimal policy, but the value function is approximated by policies of one of the two above forms for increasing barriers. A method to numerically find the optimal policy (if it exists) is presented and numerical examples are given.

We consider a two-color, randomly reinforced urn with equal reinforcement distributions and we characterize the distribution of the urn's limit proportion as the unique continuous solution of a functional equation involving unknown probability distributions on [0, 1].

In this article a collection of random self-similar fractal dendrites is constructed, and their Hausdorff dimension is calculated. Previous results determining this quantity for random self-similar structures have relied on geometrical properties of an underlying metric space or the scaling factors being bounded uniformly away from 0. However, using a percolative argument, and taking advantage of the tree-like structure of the sets considered here, it is shown that conditions such as these are not necessary. The scaling factors of the recursively defined structures in consideration form what is known as a multiplicative cascade, and results about the height of this random object are also obtained.

Corrected random walk approximations to continuous-time optimal stopping boundaries for Brownian motion, first introduced by Chernoff and Petkau, have provided powerful computational tools in option pricing and sequential analysis. This paper develops the theory of these second-order approximations and describes some new applications.

This paper is devoted to the study of two-person zero-sum games for continuous-time jump Markov processes with a discounted payoff criterion. The state and action spaces are all Polish spaces, the transition rates are allowed to be unbounded, and the payoff rates may have neither upper nor lower bounds. We give conditions on the game's primitive data under which the existence of a solution to the Shapley equation is ensured. Then, from the Shapley equation, we obtain the existence of the value of the game and of a pair of optimal stationary strategies using the extended infinitesimal operator associated with the transition function of a possibly nonhomogeneous continuous-time jump Markov process. We also provide a recursive way of computing (or at least approximating) the value of the game. Moreover, we present a ‘martingale characterization’ of a pair of optimal stationary strategies. Finally, we apply our results to a controlled birth and death system and a Schlögl first model, and then we use controlled Potlach processes to illustrate our conditions.

Let n points be randomly and independently placed in Rd according to a common probability law. It is known that the expected volume for the convex hull of these points, in the cases where n - d ≥ 2 and even, is related linearly to expected volumes of the convex hulls for j points, j < n. We show that similar identities for these volumes hold almost surely - and in contexts where independence and communality of law do not apply. New geometric and topological identities developed here provide a foundation for this result.

Intersection densities are introduced for a large class of nonstationary Poisson processes of hypersurfaces and inequalities for them are proved. In doing so, similar results from both Wieacker (1986) and Schneider (2003) are summarized in one theorem and the concept of an associated zonoid of a Poisson process of hypersurfaces is generalized to a nonstationary setting.

We study the ruin probability where the claim sizes are modeled by a stationary ergodic symmetric α-stable process. We exploit the flow representation of such processes, and we consider the processes generated by conservative flows. We focus on two classes of conservative α-stable processes (one discrete-time and one continuous-time), and give results for the order of magnitude of the ruin probability as the initial capital goes to infinity. We also prove a solidarity property for null-recurrent Markov chains as an auxiliary result, which might be of independent interest.

We study the perpetual American option characteristics in the case where the underlying dynamics involve a Brownian motion and a point process with a stochastic intensity. No assumption on the distribution of the jump size is made and we work with an arbitrary positive or negative jump. After proving the existence of an optimal stopping time for the problem and characterizing it as the hitting time of an optimal boundary, we provide closed-form formulae for the option value, as well as for the Laplace transform of the optimal stopping time. These results are then applied to the analysis of a real option problem when considering the impact of a fundamental and brutal change in the investment project environment. The consequences of this impact, that can seriously modify, positively or negatively, the project's future cash flows and therefore the investment decision, are illustrated by numerical examples.

In this paper we consider the problem of first-crossing from above for a partial sums process m+St, t ≥ 1, with the diagonal line when the random variables Xt, t ≥ 1, are independent but satisfying nonstationary laws. Specifically, the distributions of all the Xts belong to a common parametric family of arithmetic distributions, and this family of laws is assumed to be stable by convolution. The key result is that the first-crossing time distribution and the associated ballot-type formula rely on an underlying polynomial structure, called the generalized Abel-Gontcharoff structure. In practice, this property advantageously provides simple and efficient recursions for the numerical evaluation of the probabilities of interest. Several applications are then presented, for constant and variable parameters.

We introduce a new class of spatial-temporal point processes based on Voronoi tessellations. At each step of such a process, a point is chosen at random according to a distribution determined by the associated Voronoi cells. The point is then removed, and a new random point is added to the configuration. The dynamics are simple and intuitive and could be applied to modelling natural phenomena. We prove ergodicity of these processes under wide conditions.