We discuss some issues regarding the accuracy of a quantile-based estimation of risk capital. In this context, extreme value theory (EVT) emerges naturally. The paper sheds some further light on the ongoing discussion concerning the use of a semi-parametric approach like EVT and the use of specific parametric models such as the g-and-h. In particular, we discusses problems and pitfalls evolving from such parametric models when using EVT and highlight the importance of the underlying second-order tail behavior.

We analyze asymptotically a differential-difference equation that arises in a Markov-modulated fluid model. We use singular perturbation methods to analyze the problem with appropriate scalings of the two state variables. In particular, the ray method and asymptotic matching are used.

We study the evolution in time of the joint distribution of a pair of Feller processes, related by the fact that some random time ago they were identical, evolving as a single Feller process; from that time on, they began to evolve independently, conditional on a state at the time of split, according to the same Feller transition probabilities. Such processes are involved in the Fisher-Wright model: the distribution of the time counted backwards from the present to the time of split in the past is a function of deterministic but time-varying effective size 2N of the population from which the two processes are sampled. In terms of a corresponding family of Feller operators, assuming asymptotic stability or ergodicity of the process of mutation, we find the limit form of the distribution of such pairs of processes sampled from decaying, asymptotically constant, and growing populations. In the case where mutation is not asymptotically stable or ergodic, limit distributions are found for the distribution of relative differences.

In this paper a limit theorem is proved that establishes conditions under which the distribution of the difference between the size of the initial event in a random sequence, modeled as a finite point process, and the largest subsequent event approaches a limiting form independent of the size of the initial event. The underlying assumptions are that the sizes of the individual events follow an exponential distribution, that the expected total number of events increases exponentially with the size of the initial event, and that the structure of the sequence approximates that of a Poisson process. Particular cases to which the results apply include sequences of independent and identically distributed exponential variables, and the epidemic-type aftershock (ETAS) branching process model in the subcritical case. In all these cases the form of the limit distribution is shown to be that of a double exponential (type-I extreme value distribution). In sampling from a family of aftershock sequences, with possibly different underlying parameters, the limit distribution is a mixture of such double exponential distributions. The conditions for the simple limit to exist relate to the approximation of the distribution of the number of events by a Poisson distribution. One such condition requires the coefficient of variation (ratio of standard deviation to mean) of the number of events to converge to 0 as the mean increases. The results provide a statistical background to Båth's law in seismology, which asserts that in an aftershock sequence the magnitude of the main shock is commonly around 1.2 units higher than the magnitude of the largest aftershock.

We study the survival properties of inhomogeneous Galton-Watson processes. We determine the so-called branching number (which is the reciprocal of the critical value for percolation) for these random trees (conditioned on being infinite), which turns out to be an almost sure constant. We also shed some light on the way in which the survival probability varies between the generations. When we perform independent percolation on the family tree of an inhomogeneous Galton-Watson process, the result is essentially a family of inhomogeneous Galton-Watson processes, parameterized by the retention probability p. We provide growth rates, uniformly in p, of the percolation clusters, and also show uniform convergence of the survival probability from the nth level along subsequences. These results also establish, as a corollary, the supercritical continuity of the percolation function. Some of our results are generalizations of results in Lyons (1992).

Most metrics between finite point measures currently used in the literature have the flaw that they do not treat differing total masses in an adequate manner for applications. This paper introduces a new metric d̅1 that combines positional differences of points under a closest match with the relative difference in total mass in a way that fixes this flaw. A comprehensive collection of theoretical results about d̅1 and its induced Wasserstein metric d̅2 for point process distributions are given, including examples of useful d̅1-Lipschitz continuous functions, d̅2 upper bounds for the Poisson process approximation, and d̅2 upper and lower bounds between distributions of point processes of independent and identically distributed points. Furthermore, we present a statistical test for multiple point pattern data that demonstrates the potential of d̅1 in applications.

This paper is concerned with the finiteness and large-time behaviour of moments of the overshoot and undershoot of a high level, and of their moment generating functions (MGFs), for a Lévy process which drifts to -∞ almost surely. This provides information relevant to quantities associated with the ruin of an insurance risk process. Results of Klüppelberg, Kyprianou, and Maller (2004) and Doney and Kyprianou (2006) for asymptotic overshoot and undershoot distributions in the class of Lévy processes with convolution equivalent canonical measures are shown to have moment and MGF convergence extensions.

We study the problem of maximizing the long-run average growth of total wealth for a logarithmic utility function under the existence of fixed and proportional transaction costs. The market model consists of one riskless asset and d risky assets. Impulsive control theory is applied to this problem. We derive a quasivariational inequality (QVI) of ‘ergodic’ type and obtain a weak solution for the inequality. Using this solution, we obtain an optimal investment strategy to achieve the optimal growth.

In this paper we introduce Lévy-driven Cox point processes (LCPs) as Cox point processes with driving intensity function Λ defined by a kernel smoothing of a Lévy basis (an independently scattered, infinitely divisible random measure). We also consider log Lévy-driven Cox point processes (LLCPs) with Λ equal to the exponential of such a kernel smoothing. Special cases are shot noise Cox processes, log Gaussian Cox processes, and log shot noise Cox processes. We study the theoretical properties of Lévy-based Cox processes, including moment properties described by nth-order product densities, mixing properties, specification of inhomogeneity, and spatio-temporal extensions.

We consider the M/M/∞ queue with m primary servers and infinitely many secondary servers. All the servers are numbered and ordered. An arriving customer takes the lowest available server. We define the wasted spaces as the difference between the highest numbered occupied server and the total number of occupied servers. Letting ρ = λ0/μ be the ratio of arrival to service rates, we study the probability distribution of the wasted spaces asymptotically for ρ → ∞. We also give some numerical results and the tail behavior for ρ = O(1).

We give a functional central limit theorem for spatial birth and death processes based on the representation of such processes as solutions of stochastic equations. For any bounded and integrable function in Euclidean space, we define a family of processes which is obtained by integrals of this function with respect to the centered and scaled spatial birth and death process with constant death rate. We prove that this family converges weakly to a Gaussian process as the scale parameter goes to infinity. We do not need the birth rates to have a finite range of interaction. Instead, we require that the birth rates have a range of interaction that decays polynomially. In order to show the convergence of the finite-dimensional distributions of the above processes, we extend Penrose's multivariate spatial central limit theorem. An example of the asymptotic normalities of the time-invariance estimators for the birth rates of spatial point processes is given.

A weighted graph G is a pair (V, ℰ) containing vertex set V and edge set ℰ, where each edge e ∈ ℰ is associated with a weight We. A subgraph of G is a forest if it has no cycles. All forests on the graph G form a probability space, where the probability of each forest is proportional to the product of the weights of its edges. This paper aims to simulate forests exactly from the target distribution. Methods based on coupling from the past (CFTP) and rejection sampling are presented. Comparisons of these methods are given theoretically and via simulation.

While the convergence properties of many sampling selection methods can be proven, there is one particular sampling selection method introduced in Baker (1987), closely related to ‘systematic sampling’ in statistics, that has been exclusively treated on an empirical basis. The main motivation of the paper is to start to study formally its convergence properties, since in practice it is by far the fastest selection method available. We will show that convergence results for the systematic sampling selection method are related to properties of peculiar Markov chains.

We consider a multiserver queue in the Halfin-Whitt regime: as the number of servers n grows without a bound, the utilization approaches 1 from below at the rate Assuming that the service time distribution is lattice valued with a finite support, we characterize the limiting scaled stationary queue length distribution in terms of the stationary distribution of an explicitly constructed Markov chain. Furthermore, we obtain an explicit expression for the critical exponent for the moment generating function of a limiting stationary queue length. This exponent has a compact representation in terms of three parameters: the amount of spare capacity and the coefficients of variation of interarrival and service times. Interestingly, it matches an analogous exponent corresponding to a single-server queue in the conventional heavy-traffic regime.

A multiarmed bandit problem is studied when the arms are not always available. The arms are first assumed to be intermittently available with some state/action-dependent probabilities. It is proven that no index policy can attain the maximum expected total discounted reward in every instance of that problem. The Whittle index policy is derived, and its properties are studied. Then it is assumed that the arms may break down, but repair is an option at some cost, and the new Whittle index policy is derived. Both problems are indexable. The proposed index policies cannot be dominated by any other index policy over all multiarmed bandit problems considered here. Whittle indices are evaluated for Bernoulli arms with unknown success probabilities.

The classical models in risk theory consider a single type of claim. In the insurance business, however, several business lines with separate claim arrival processes appear naturally, and the individual claim processes may not be independent. We introduce a new class of models for such situations, where the underlying counting process is a multivariate continuous-time Markov chain of pure-birth type and the dependency of the components arises from the fact that the birth rate for a specific claim type may depend on the number of claims in the other component processes. Under certain conditions, we obtain a fluid limit, i.e. a functional law of large numbers for these processes. We also investigate the consequences of such results for questions of interest in insurance applications. Several specific subclasses of the general model are discussed in detail and the Cramér asymptotics of the ruin probabilities are derived in particular cases.

We extend a result due to Zazanis (1992) on the analyticity of the expectation of suitable functionals of homogeneous Poisson processes with respect to the intensity of the process. As our main result, we provide Monte Carlo estimators for the derivatives. We apply our results to stochastic models which are of interest in stochastic geometry and insurance.