We study the integrated telegraph process $X_t$ under the assumption of general distribution for the random times between consecutive reversals of direction. Specifically, $X_t$ represents the position, at time t, of a particle moving U time units upwards with velocity c and D time units downwards with velocity $-c$ . The latter motions are repeated cyclically, according to independent alternating renewals. Explicit expressions for the probability law of $X_t$ are given in the following cases: (i) (U, D) gamma-distributed; (ii) U exponentially distributed and D gamma-distributed. For certain values of the parameters involved, the probability law of $X_t$ is provided in a closed form. Some expressions for the moment generating function of $X_t$ and its Laplace transform are also obtained. The latter allows us to prove the existence of a Kac-type condition under which the probability density function of the integrated telegraph process, with identically distributed gamma intertimes, converges to that of the standard Brownian motion.

Finally, we consider the square of $X_t$ and disclose its distribution function, specifying the expression for some choices of the distribution of (U, D).

The nonstationary Erlang-A queue is a fundamental queueing model that is used to describe the dynamic behavior of large-scale multiserver service systems that may experience customer abandonments, such as call centers, hospitals, and urban mobility systems. In this paper we develop novel approximations to all of its transient and steady state moments, the moment generating function, and the cumulant generating function. We also provide precise bounds for the difference of our approximations and the true model. More importantly, we show that our approximations have explicit stochastic representations as shifted Poisson random variables. Moreover, we are also able to show that our approximations and bounds also hold for nonstationary Erlang-B and Erlang-C queueing models under certain stability conditions.

Transform inversions, in which density and survival functions are computed from their associated moment generating function $\mathcal{M}$, have largely been based on methods which use values of $\mathcal{M}$ in its convergence region. Prominent among such methods are saddlepoint approximations and Fourier-series inversion methods, including the fast Fourier transform. In this paper we propose inversion methods which make use of values for $\mathcal{M}$ which lie outside of its convergence region and in its analytic continuation. We focus on the simplest and perhaps richest setting for applications in which $\mathcal{M}$ is either a meromorphic function in its analytic continuation, so that all of its singularities are poles, or else the singularities are isolated essential. Asymptotic expansions of finite- and infinite-orders are developed for density and survival functions using the poles of $\mathcal{M}$ in its analytic continuation. For finite-order expansions, the expansion error is a contour integral in the analytic continuation, which we approximate using the saddlepoint method based on following the path of steepest descent. Such saddlepoint error approximations accurately determine expansion errors and, thus, provide the means for determining the order of the expansion needed to achieve some preset accuracy. They also provide an additive correction term which increases accuracy of the expansion. Further accuracy is achieved by computing the expansion errors numerically using a contour path which ultimately tracks the steepest descent direction. Important applications include Wilks’ likelihood ratio test in MANOVA, compound distributions, and the Sparre Andersen and Cramér–Lundberg ruin models.

The longest stretch L(n) of consecutive heads in n independent and identically distributed coin tosses is seen from the prism of large deviations. We first establish precise asymptotics for the moment generating function of L(n) and then show that there are precisely two large deviation principles, one concerning the behavior of the distribution of L(n) near its nominal value log1∕p n and one away from it. We discuss applications to inference and to logarithmic asymptotics of functionals of L(n).

In-person interviews were carried out with Mexican millers who were administered a conjoint-type survey designed to incorporate uncertainty in attribute levels. Two methods were used to model millers' risk preferences: a modified mean-variance approach and an explicit expected utility approach. Controlling for variability, Mexican millers are willing to pay premiums for increases in quality factors such as test weight, protein content, falling number, and dough strength/extensibility. We find millers are not particularly sensitive to changes in the variability of quality characteristics. Out-of-sample forecasts suggest the mean-variance model provides an accurate depiction of actual Mexican imports.

This paper provides an analysis on a discrete version of the Ornstein-Uhlenbeck (OU) process which reflects the small discrete movements caused by the tick size effect. This discrete OU process is derived from matching the first two moments to those of the standard OU process in an infinitesimal sense. We discuss the distributional convergence from the discrete to the continuous processes, and show that the convergence speed is in the second order of the step (tick) size. We also provide some analytical results for the proposed discrete OU process itself, including the closed-form formula of the moment generating function and a full characterisation of the steady state distribution. These results enable us to examine the convergence order explicitly.

In this paper, we have analyzed the performance of correlated Nakagami-m fading channel by using the maximal-ratio-combing diversity at the receiver. A closed-form mathematical expression is derived for the average bit error rate (BER) for binary phase-shift keying (BPSK) and average symbol-error-rate (SER) for M-Quardrature amplitude modulation (M-QAM) scheme in terms of the higher transcendental function such as Appell hypergeometric function by using the well-known moment generating function (MGF)-based approach with arbitrary fading index for the orthogonal frequency division multiplexing (OFDM) communication systems. Moreover, we also derived an expression for the outage probability and the proposed numerical results are compared with the reported literature.

In this paper we develop an explicit formula that allows us to compute the first k moments of the random count of a pattern in a multistate sequence generated by a Markov source. We derive efficient algorithms that allow us to deal with any pattern (low or high complexity) in any Markov model (homogeneous or not). We then apply these results to the distribution of DNA patterns in genomic sequences, and we show that moment-based developments (namely Edgeworth's expansion and Gram-Charlier type-B series) allow us to improve the reliability of common asymptotic approximations, such as Gaussian or Poisson approximations.

It is shown that, when expressing arguments in terms of their logarithms, the Laplace transform of a function is related to the antiderivative of this function by a simple convolution. This allows efficient numerical computations of moment generating functions of positive random variables and their inversion. The application of the method is straightforward, apart from the necessity to implement it using high-precision arithmetics. In numerical examples the approach is demonstrated to be particularly useful for distributions with heavy tails, such as lognormal, Weibull, or Pareto distributions, which are otherwise difficult to handle. The computational efficiency compared to other methods is demonstrated for an M/G/1 queueing problem.

In DNA sequences, specific words may take on biological functions as marker or signalling sequences. These may often be identified by frequent-word analyses as being particularly abundant. Accurate statistics is needed to assess the statistical significance of these word frequencies. The set of shuffled sequences - letter sequences having the same k-word composition, for some choice of k, as the sequence being analysed - is considered the most appropriate sample space for analysing word counts. However, little is known about these word counts. Here we present exact formulae for word counts in shuffled sequences.

We introduce a new class of lifetime distributions exhibiting a notion of positive ageing, called the ℳ-class, which is strongly related to the well-known ℒ-class. It is shown that distributions in the ℳ-class cannot have an undesirable property recently observed in an example of an ℒ-class distribution by Klar (2002). Moreover, it is shown how these and related classes of life distributions can be characterized by expected remaining lifetimes after a family of random times, thus extending the notion of NBUE. We give examples of ℳ-class distributions by using simple sufficient conditions, and we derive reliability bounds for distributions in this class.

There are m urns each containing k cells; n balls are assigned to the m urns in such a way that each cell contains at most one ball. Let Mt be the number of urns containing exactly t balls (t = 0, 1, •••, k). In the paper, the distribution of Mt, its moments and moment-generating function are obtained. The derivation of the last two seems to be new.