This paper develops a monetary R&D-driven endogenous growth model featuring endogenous innovation scales and the price-marginal cost markup. To endogenize the step size of quality improvement, we propose a tradeoff mechanism between the risk of innovation failure and the benefit of innovation success in R&D firms. Several findings emerge from the analysis. First, a rise in the nominal interest rate decreases economic growth; however, its relationship with social welfare is ambiguous. Second, either strengthening patent protection or raising the professional knowledge of R&D firms leads to an ambiguous effect on economic growth. Third, the Friedman rule of a zero nominal interest rate fails to be optimal in view of the social welfare maximum. Finally, our numerical analysis indicates that the extent of patent protection and the level of an R&D firm’s professional knowledge play a crucial role in determining the optimal interest rate.

We use the New Keynesian Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium (DSGE) framework and Vector Autoregressive (VAR) to investigate the usefulness and relevancy of monetary services, augmented to include credit card transaction services. We use the new credit-card-augmented Divisia monetary aggregates in the models to further the existing research on their usefulness and relevancy. In this research, we compare three different monetary aggregates within the New Keynesian framework: (1) the aggregation-theoretic “true” monetary aggregate, (2) the credit-card-augmented Divisia monetary aggregate, and (3) the simple sum monetary aggregate.

We acquire the following primary results. (1) The credit-card-augmented Divisia monetary aggregate tracks the theoretical (true) monetary aggregate, while simple sum does not. Although this result would be expected from the theory in classical economic models, the result is not an immediate implication of the theory in New Keynesian models and therefore needs empirical confirmation. (2) Under the recursive VAR framework, the credit-card-augmented Divisia monetary aggregate serves as a preferable monetary policy indicator compared to the traditional federal funds rate. (3) On theoretical grounds, we find that the separability condition for existence of a monetary aggregator function could fail, if credit card deferred payment services were excluded from the monetary services block, unless all markets are perfect.

We make a distinction between centralized, decentralized, and distributed payment mechanisms. A centralized payment mechanism processes a transaction using a trusted third party. A decentralized payment mechanism processes a transaction between the parties to the transaction. A distributed payment mechanism relies on the network of users to process a transaction on a shared ledger. We maintain that bitcoin is neither a centralized nor a decentralized payment mechanism. It is, instead, a distributed payment mechanism. We then consider decentralized and centralized aspects of the broader bitcoin payment space.

The period from the 1950s to the late 1970s saw an almost uniform decline of cash-to-GDP ratios in industrial countries. A closer look at the German payment system suggests that the factor causing such a change was a shift towards cashless wage payments. In this period, in Germany, the branch network of banks expanded significantly and at the end of the period almost all economically active individuals had a current account. This change was triggered by rising wages and income. Rising wages increased the burden of weekly wage payments in cash, and rising income made the average earner more attractive for banks. Moreover, regulation and deregulation, by triggering both price and non-price competition, may also have played a role. Technological change was not an independent driver. In the 1950s, the number of giro accounts per German adult was comparable to the current situation in many developing countries. Yet, I argue that the German post-war experience does not provide a blueprint for most of these countries.

Since the onset of the Federal Reserve's unconventional programme of large-scale asset purchases, known as quantitative easing (QE), some economists and financial practitioners have feared that the consequent buildup of the Fed's balance sheet could lead to a large expansion of the money supply, and that such an increase could cause a sharp rise in inflation. So far fears about induced inflation have not been validated. This article examines the basis for the original concerns about inflation in terms of the classic quantity theory of money, which holds that inflation occurs when the money supply expands more rapidly than warranted by increases in real production. The article first reviews the US experience and shows that whereas rapid money growth might have been a plausible explanation of inflation in the 1960s through the early 1980s, subsequent data have not supported such an explanation. It then shows that the quantity theory of money has not really been put to the test after the Great Recession, because a sharp increase in banks’ excess reserves and corresponding sharp decline in the ‘money multiplier’ has meant that the rise in the Federal Reserve's balance sheet has not translated into increased money available to the public in the usual fashion. The most likely aftermath of quantitative easing remains one of benign price behaviour. However, if nascent inflationary conditions materialise, the Federal Reserve will need to manage adroitly the large amounts of banks’ excess reserves that have accumulated as a consequence of QE in order to limit inflationary pressures.

As long as all interest rates move in tandem – including the rate of return on paper currency – economic theory suggests no important difference between interest rate changes in the positive region and interest rate changes in the negative region. Indeed, in standard models, only the real interest rate and spreads between real interest rates matter. Thus, in most respects, negative interest rate policy is conventional. It is only (a) what needs to be done with paper currency, (b) difficulties in understanding negative rates or (c) institutional features interacting with negative rates that make negative interest rate policy unconventional.

This article reviews the political economy of Manchuria under the rule of Zhang Zuolin, which resulted in the economic instability that occurred during the winter of 1928. One can conjecture that the economic instability did not occur only because of the arbitrariness of the political and military regional government. The instability appears to be related to an ongoing seasonal demand for monies, which was relatively high between the months of September and March, since it corresponded to the period of commerce in soybeans − the region's main economic activity −, the migration of seasonal workers, and also the festive period of the Chinese New Year. The analysis was conducted based on primary materials published by the South Manchuria Railway Company, such as currency issuance and the variation of the exchange rate of the major currencies in circulation among foreign and Chinese currencies.

The article investigates the determinants of consumer price inflation in China. While inflation has been entirely driven by international factors, such as food and energy prices, in the period preceeding the financial crisis, domestic drivers like monetary developments and nominal wages have become increasingly important since then. Due to tight trade linkages and the presence of Chinese firms in international production chains, the changing pattern is also relevant to other countries.

The possibility of indeterminacy and sunspot fluctuations in dynamic rational expectations models has been often questioned on empirical grounds, for such models are widely believed to rely on implausibly high degrees of increasing returns to scale and/or other controversial calibrations of economic fundamentals. In this paper, we study the occurrence of such phenomena in a standard (one-sector) optimal growth model with endogenous labor supply and a partial cash-in-advance constraint on consumption purchases. We show that, under standard preferences and constant returns to scale in production, indeterminacy typically prevails for an arbitrarily small amplitude of the liquidity constraint. We also analyze the cyclical properties of the model submitted to technological and beliefs disturbances and observe that it performs as well as comparable indeterminate models in the literature.

This paper empirically captures the interrelationships between the stock markets and interest rates for a set of Asian markets by means of a new technique called co-dependence. It uses a set of data for three countries in Asia – India, Pakistan and Bangladesh, over a time period spanning from 1985 to 2003.

Cet article spécifie un cadre analytique permettant de déterminer la demande de grosses coupures qui, selon les travaux empiriques, émane essentiellement de l'économie souterraine. Cette demande permet d'alimenter une thésaurisation qui échappe à l'imposition et de financer des transactions qui du fait de leurs montants importants sont essentiellement financières.

Malgré son caractère très stylisé, le modèle utilisé permet de fonder théoriquement des relations établies sur le plan empirique entre la demande de billets et des variables, comme la pression fiscale et les taux de rendements des actifs financiers. Il formalise également certains arguments et intuitions exprimés en termes littéraires sur le rôle de la moralité fiscale, des mesures de contrôle et du coût du blanchiment dans le développement de l'économie souterraine que traduit celui de la demande de billets.

Sur la base des résultats ainsi obtenus, on analyse les mesures qui peuvent être envisagées par les autorités publiques pour agir sur le volume des grosses coupures offertes et demandées en vue d'influencer le développement des activités financières souterraines.

L’approche d’Allais repose sur des concepts et postulats qui sont propres à son auteur et qui portent sur (i) le lien entre la mémoire du passé et l’anticipation du futur, (ii) le concept de temps psychologique, (iii) l’analogie entre l’oubli et l’intérêt, (iv) le concept de taux d’intérêt psychologique et ses relations avec les taux d’intérêt du marché, et (v) l’appréciation de la conjoncture économique par les agents. Ces idées ont été articulées entre elles dans le cadre de la théorie Héréditaire et Relativiste, pièce unique de la littérature. Bien que cette théorie n’ait été testée empiriquement que dans le domaine des taux d’intérêt et de la demande de monnaie, elle revêt en fait un caractère très général. Un résultat particulièrement séduisant est que certains phénomènes nous apparaissant comme variables dans le temps physique peuvent être constants dans le temps psychologique.