Forecasts play a central role in decision-making under uncertainty. After a brief review of the general issues, this article considers ways of using high-dimensional data in forecasting. We consider selecting variables from a known active set, known knowns, using Lasso and One Covariate at a time Multiple Testing, and approximating unobserved latent factors, known unknowns, by various means. This combines both sparse and dense approaches to forecasting. We demonstrate the various issues involved in variable selection in a high-dimensional setting with an application to forecasting UK inflation at different horizons over the period 2020q1–2023q1. This application shows both the power of parsimonious models and the importance of allowing for global variables.

The prospects are considered of deploying batteries and fuel cells in order to reduce the carbon emissions from various modes of transport. It is proposed that the government has not done enough to advance these technologies and that Britain is lagging behind other countries. The adequacy of Britain’s future supplies of energy is called into question.

Climate change is a complex global issue that requires widespread understanding, support and collaboration for effective solutions. This research delves into the crucial role of communication in tackling climate change and reaching net-zero goals. Leveraging advanced machine learning techniques, we focus on 10 core climate change topics derived from social media conversations over time. This analysis underscores the importance of a holistic and interconnected approach, involving a diverse array of policies at local, national and global levels to combat climate change effectively and attain net-zero objectives. We offer key policy suggestions that can significantly contribute to this vital cause.

Offshore wind farms (OWF) are now in operation and increasingly under construction as scalable, sustainable energy sources. In fact OWFs are currently the cheapest form of new energy projects in Europe. The levelized cost of energy (LCOE) for OWF has fallen drastically due to decades of innovation facilitated by both taxpayer and private sector funding. This emerging industry is experiencing massive worldwide growth with the potential to accelerate the decarbonization of regional and the global economy as well as bring a reliable source of green hydrogen into commercial use, all with minimal disruption to ecosystems and impacts on biodiversity. This paper provides a historical perspective of wind energy harnessing and shows that wind turbines are the oldest, largest and one of the smartest machines. We also highlight the potential of offshore wind energy to provide new solutions to (a) meet clean energy demand for a growing world population, (b) improve energy security of nations through other downstream technologies such as production and storage of dispatchable fuel (such as green hydrogen battery storage) and (c) through supply complementarity improve resilience of nuclear power plants in high-seismic-activity areas. Offshore wind industry can also become a gold standard for future industries, and the paper provides insights into the new green economics and jobs and factories for the future. We show that environment-friendly regulation is driving innovations even further to enhance sustainability of OWF. Examples include material recycling, landfill ban on blade disposal and ecofriendly low-noise offshore construction to protect biodiversity.

Net zero greenhouse gas emissions by 2050, the UK’s current target, requires bridging a dramatic energy transition and eliminating all other net sources of emissions while ensuring a just transition. Key components like renewable electricity generation and electric vehicles are well developed, but many issues remain. Public support for a green economy may wane if the economic costs are too high or seen as unfair. Therefore, although renewable energy is cheaper than fossil fuels, it is essential to maintain employment, real per capita growth and reduced inequality. Decarbonizing the UK economy requires an integrated sequential approach and need not be delayed while dealing with the aftermath of the COVID-19 pandemic, energy crisis and resulting inflation.

Several decades ago, Sig Prais concluded that the root cause of the UK’s poor industrial performance was the poor quality of education and training. In this lecture, I will make a related argument, focussing on the lack of opportunity in the United Kingdom for workers who have not succeeded in the formal education system and the long-lasting impacts this has on their economic, health and social wellbeing. I will highlight the importance of providing opportunities for continued training over a worker’s lifetime for appropriate skills that are valued in the workplace in order to achieve inclusive growth.

This analysis aims at providing an interim assessment of the ECB’s current policy rate tightening cycle. Our analysis suggests that the ECB’s monetary policy measures are tightening financial conditions and reducing credit volumes in the euro area reducing credit volumes. In view of the lags from financing conditions to the real economy, the impact of the policy tightening cycle on inflation can currently be observed only to a limited extent. The scale of the policy tightening required to return inflation to the two percent target over the medium term will need to be regularly reviewed, in view of the uncertainty about the transmission mechanism and in line with the incoming evidence concerning underlying inflation dynamics.

We show consumer expectations indices from the Conference Board and the University of Michigan predict unemployment upticks in the USA up to 18 months in advance, both at national and at state level. These data predict six of the last six recessions called by the NBER Business Cycle Dating Committee 6–18 months before the date of recession. The consumer expectations data for 2021 and 2022 are consistent with recession.