A neural model with N interacting neurons is considered. A firing of neuron i delays the firing times of all other neurons by the same random variable θ(i), and in isolation the firings of the neuron occur according to a renewal process with generic interarrival time Y(i). The stationary distribution of the N-vector of inhibitions at a firing time is computed, and involves waiting distributions of GI/G/1 queues and ladder height renewal processes. Further, the distribution of the period of activity of a neuron is studied for the symmetric case where θ(i) and Y(i) do not depend upon i. The tools are probabilistic and involve path decompositions, Palm theory and random walks.

In this short communication, some of the recent results of Liu (1998) and Biggins and Kyprianou (1997), concerning solutions to a certain functional equation associated with the branching random walk, are strengthened. Their importance is emphasized in the context of travelling wave solutions to a discrete version of the KPP equation and the connection with the behaviour of the rightmost particle in the nth generation.

By lower estimates of the functionals 𝔼[eStKtNt], where St and Nt denote the total length up to time t and the number of individuals at time t in a Galton-Watson tree, we obtain sufficient criteria for the blow-up of semilinear equations and systems of the type ∂wt/∂t = Awt + Vwtβ. Roughly speaking, the growth of the tree length has to win against the ‘mobility’ of the motion belonging to the generator A, since, in the probabilistic representation of the equations, the latter results in small K(t) as t → ∞. In the single-type situation, this gives a re-interpretation of classical results of Nagasawa and Sirao(1969); in the multitype scenario, part of the results obtained through analytic methods in Escobedo and Herrero (1991) and (1995) are re-proved and extended from the case A = Δ to the case of α-Laplacians.

This paper considers continuous-time Markov chains whose state space consists of an irreducible class, 𝒞, and an absorbing state which is accessible from 𝒞. The purpose is to provide a way to determine the expected time to absorption conditional on such time being finite, in the case where absorption occurs with probability less than 1. The results are illustrated by applications to the general birth and death process and the linear birth, death and catastrophe process.

The purpose of this paper is to study the asymptotic properties of Markov chains on semigroups. In particular, the structure of transition matrices representing random walks on finite semigroups is examined. It is shown that the transition matrices associated with certain semigroups are block diagonal with identical blocks. The form of the blocks is determined via the algebraic structure of the semigroup.

The asymptotic behaviour of the cumulative mean of a reward process 𝒵ρ, where the reward function ρ belongs to a rather large class of functions, is obtained. It is proved that E𝒵ρ(t) = C0 + C1t + o(1), t → ∞, where C0 and C1 are fully specified. A section is devoted to the dual process of a semi-Markov process, and a formula is given for the mean of the first passage time from a state i to a state j of the dual process, in terms of the means of passage times of the original process.

We consider the problem of predicting integrals of second order processes whose covariances satisfy some Hölder regularity condition of order α > 0. When α is an odd integer, linear estimators based on regular sampling designs were constructed and asymptotic results for the approximation error were derived. We extend this result to any α > 0. When 2K < α ≤ 2K + 2, K a non-negative integer, we use an appropriate predictor based on the Euler-MacLaurin formula of order K with regular sampling designs. We give the corresponding result for the mean square error.

Explicit formulas are found for the payoff and the optimal stopping strategy of the optimal stopping problem supτE (max0≤t≤τXt − c τ), where X = (Xt)t≥0 is geometric Brownian motion with drift μ and volatility σ > 0, and the supremum is taken over all stopping times for X. The payoff is shown to be finite, if and only if μ < 0. The optimal stopping time is given by τ* = inf {t > 0 | Xt = g* (max0≤t≤sXs)} where s ↦ g*(s) is the maximal solution of the (nonlinear) differential equation under the condition 0 < g(s) < s, where Δ = 1 − 2μ / σ2 and K = Δ σ2 / 2c. The estimate is established g*(s) ∼ ((Δ − 1) / K Δ)1 / Δs1−1/Δ as s → ∞. Applying these results we prove the following maximal inequality: where τ may be any stopping time for X. This extends the well-known identity E (supt>0Xt) = 1 − (σ 2 / 2 μ) and is shown to be sharp. The method of proof relies upon a smooth pasting guess (for the Stephan problem with moving boundary) and the Itô–Tanaka formula (being applied two-dimensionally). The key point and main novelty in our approach is the maximality principle for the moving boundary (the optimal stopping boundary is the maximal solution of the differential equation obtained by a smooth pasting guess). We think that this principle is by itself of theoretical and practical interest.

The filtering problem concerns the estimation of a stochastic process X from its noisy partial information Y. With the notable exception of the linear-Gaussian situation, general optimal filters have no finitely recursive solution. The aim of this work is the design of a Monte Carlo particle system approach to solve discrete time and nonlinear filtering problems. The main result is a uniform convergence theorem. We introduce a concept of regularity and we give a simple ergodic condition on the signal semigroup for the Monte Carlo particle filter to converge in law and uniformly with respect to time to the optimal filter, yielding what seems to be the first uniform convergence result for a particle approximation of the nonlinear filtering equation.

We study a class of simulated annealing type algorithms for global minimization with general acceptance probabilities. This paper presents simple conditions, easy to verify in practice, which ensure the convergence of the algorithm to the global minimum with probability 1.

Suppose t1, t2,… are the arrival times of units into a system. The kth entering unit, whose magnitude is Xk and lifetime Lk, is said to be ‘active’ at time t if I(tk < tk + Lk) = Ik,t = 1. The size of the active population at time t is thus given by At = ∑k≥1Ik,t. Let Vt denote the vector whose coordinates are the magnitudes of the active units at time t, in their order of appearance in the system. For n ≥ 1, suppose λn is a measurable function on n-dimensional Euclidean space. Of interest is the weak limiting behaviour of the process λ*(t) whose value is λm(Vt) or 0, according to whether At = m > 0 or At = 0.

The no-aging property and the ℓ1-isotropic model it implies have been introduced to overcome certain shortcomings of the exponential model. However, its definition is abstract and not very useful for practitioners. This paper presents several additional characterizations of the no-aging property. Included are (1) characterizations that appropriately generalize the memoryless property and the constant-failure-rate property of the exponential, (2) behavioral characterizations based on fair bets, and (3) geometric characterizations of the survival and density function and differential-geometric characterizations based on tensor methods.

We consider the problem of self-organizing a linear list when the list is subjected to a random number of requests. Three separate move-to-front heuristics are considered. The difference between them lies in whether the items in the requested set are moved to the front in random order, or the same order as they were in originally, or in the order opposite to the one they were in originally. The eigenvalues of the transition probability matrices corresponding to the three heuristics are explicitly derived.

Coffman, Courtois, Gilbert and Piret (1991) have introduced a flow process in graphs, where each vertex gets an initial random resource, and where at each time vertices with large resources tend to attract resources from neighbours. The initial resources are assumed to be i.i.d., with a continuous distribution.

We are mainly interested in the following question: does, with probability 1, the resource of each vertex change only finitely many times?

Coffman et al. concentrate mainly on the case where the graph corresponds with the integer points on the line, in which case it is easily seen that the answer to the above question is positive. For higher-dimensional lattices they make general remarks which suggest that the answer to the above question is still positive. However, no proof seems to be known.

We restrict to the case of the square lattice, and, by a percolation approach, we reduce the question above to the question whether a certain quantity, which can be obtained from a finite computation, is sufficiently small. This computation is, however, still too long to be executed in an acceptable time. We therefore apply Monte Carlo simulation for this finite problem, which gives overwhelming evidence that, for the square lattice, the answer to the main question is positive.

The stability of polling models is examined using associated fluid limit models. Examples are presented which generalize existing results in the literature or provide new stability conditions while in both cases providing simple and intuitive proofs of stability. The analysis is performed for both general single server models and specific multiple server models.

An optimal repair/replacement problem for a single-unit repairable system with minimal repair and random repair cost is considered. The existence of the optimal policy is established using results of the optimal stopping theory, and it is shown that the optimal policy is a ‘repair-cost-limit’ policy, that is, there is a series of repair-cost-limit functions gn(t), n = 1, 2,…, such that a unit of age t is replaced at the nth failure if and only if the repair cost C(n, t) ≥ gn(t); otherwise it is minimally repaired. If the repair cost does not depend on n, then there is a single repair cost limit function g(t), which is uniquely determined by a first-order differential equation with a boundary condition.

This paper finds the first and second moments of the number of arrivals in a stable M/M/k queue during an idle period, i.e. in a period when at least one server is idle. These and similar results are used along with renewal theory asymptotics to find the first and second moments of the proportion of arrivals occurring while there are at least ξ customers waiting for service. The asymptotics of the second moment for large ξ are established.

We study one-dimensional continuous loss networks with length distribution G and cable capacity C. We prove that the unique stationary distribution ηL of the network for which the restriction on the number of calls to be less than C is imposed only in the segment [−L,L] is the same as the distribution of a stationary M/G/∞ queue conditioned to be less than C in the time interval [−L,L]. For distributions G which are of phase type (= absorbing times of finite state Markov processes) we show that the limit as L → ∞ of ηL exists and is unique. The limiting distribution turns out to be invariant for the infinite loss network. This was conjectured by Kelly (1991).

This paper studies the queueing process in a class of D-policy models with Poisson bulk input, general service time, and four different vacation scenarios, among them a multiple vacation, single vacation and idle server. The D-policy specifies a busy period discipline, which requires an idle or vacationing server to resume his service when the workload process crosses some fixed level D. The analysis of the queueing process is based on the theory of fluctuations for three-dimensional marked counting processes presented in the paper. For all models, we derive the stationary distributions for the embedded and continuous time parameter queueing processes in closed analytic forms and illustrate the results by a number of examples and applications.

Consider n random intervals I1, …, IN chosen by selecting endpoints independently from the uniform distribution. A packing of I1, …, IN is a disjoint sub-collection of these intervals: its wasted space is the measure of the set of points not covered by the packing. We investigate the random variable WN equal to the smallest wasted space among all packings. Coffman, Poonen and Winkler proved that EWN is of order (log N)2/N. We provide a sharp estimate of log P(WN ≥ t (log N)2 / N) and log P(WN ≤ t (log N)2 / N) for all values of t.