This paper considers a carrier-borne epidemic in continuous time with m + 1 > 2 stages of infection. The carriers U(t) follow a pure death process, mixing homogeneously with susceptibles X0(t), and infectives Xi(t) in stages 1≦i≦m of infection. The infectives progress through consecutive stages of infection after each contact with the carriers. It is shown that under certain conditions {X0(t), X1(t), · ··, Xm(t) U(t); t≧0} is an (m + 2)-variate Markov chain, and the partial differential equation for its probability generating function derived. This can be solved after a transfomation of variables, and the probability of survivors at the end of the epidemic found.

A probabilistic predator-prey model is constructed using linked discrete-time branching-type processes. A necessary and sufficient condition for positive probability of survival of both populations is given.

We consider the limit distribution of maxima and point processes, connected with crossings of an increasing level, for a sequence of Gaussian stationary processes. As an application we investigate the limit distribution of the error of approximation of Gaussian stationary periodic processes by random trigonometric polynomials in the uniform metric.

The joint limiting distribution of suitably normalized partial sums and maxima in a stationary strong mixing sequence with finite variance is derived. It is found that in the limit the two components are independent. This generalizes Chow and Teugels' result for independent sequences. Motivation for the present study comes from a statistical problem in the analysis of extreme winds.

It is shown that the stationary, autoregressive, Markovian minification processes introduced by Tavares and Sim can be extended to give processes with marginal distributions other than the exponential and Weibull distributions. Necessary and sufficient conditions on the hazard rate of the marginal distributions are given for a minification process to exist. Results are given for the derivation of the autocorrelation function; these correct the expression for the Weibull given by Sim. Monotonic transformations of the minification processes are also discussed and generate a whole new class of autoregressive processes with fixed marginal distributions. Stationary processes generated by a maximum operation are also introduced and a comparison of three different Markovian processes with uniform marginal distributions is given.

This paper presents a unified treatment of the convergence properties of nonhomogeneous Markov systems under different sets of assumptions. First the periodic case is studied and the limiting evolution of the individual cyclically moving subclasses of the state space of the associated Markov replacement chain is completely determined. A special case of the above result is the aperiodic or strongly ergodic convergence. Two numerical examples from the literature on manpower planning highlight the practical aspect of the theoretical results.

Intuitively, the effect of conditioning a one-dimensional process to remain below a certain (possibly time-dependent) boundary is to ‘push' the process downwards. This paper investigates the effect of such conditioning, and finds the class of processes for which our intuition is accurate. It is found that ordinary stochastic inequalities are in general unsuitable for making statements about such conditioned processes, and that a stronger type of inequality is more appropriate.

The investigation is motivated by applications in estimation of boundary hitting time distributions.

In a finite, aperiodic, irreducible Markov chain, a visit to some states generates a one; to some others, a zero, while the remaining states are considered silent, in that neither symbol is generated. States during which either a one or a zero is generated are called active states, and sojourns in the set of active states correspond to messages. The output process is called a Markovian packet stream. Informally, a stream is called thin, if the steady-state fraction of time spent in the active states is small and messages are separated by silent periods of long durations. A limit theorem for the superposition of a large number of independent, stochastically identical and appropriately thin Markovian packet streams is obtained. The class of limit processes consists of a family of stationary, integer-valued, discrete-parameter processes of dependent Poisson random variables. Some properties of the limit processes are established.

We are given a Markov chain with states 0, 1, 2, ···. We want to get a numerical approximation of the steady-state balance equations. To do this, we truncate the chain, keeping the first n states, make the resulting matrix stochastic in some convenient way, and solve the finite system. The purpose of this paper is to provide some sufficient conditions that imply that as n tends to infinity, the stationary distributions of the truncated chains converge to the stationary distribution of the given chain. Our approach is completely probabilistic, and our conditions are given in probabilistic terms. We illustrate how to verify these conditions with five examples.

Beurling's inequality is proved to have an interpretation in terms of ingredients that do not depend on the effective numerical contribution of transition probabilities of circuit processes (those processes whose transition law is expressed by a denumerable class of directed weighted circuits). Connections with reversibility for Sk-state, k≧2, circuit processes, where S is a denumerable set, are revealed.

Two arbitrary life distributions F and G can be ordered with respect to their Laplace transforms. We say is Laplace-smaller than for all s > 0. Interpretations of this ordering concept in reliability, operations research, and economics are described. General preservation properties are presented. Using these preservation results we derive useful inequalities and discuss their applications to M/G/1 queues, time series, coherent systems, shock models and cumulative damage models.

A family of random variables {X(θ)} parameterized by the parameter θ satisfies stochastic convexity (SCX) if and only if for any increasing and convex function f(x), Ef[X(θ)] is convex in θ. This definition, however, has a major drawback for the lack of certain important closure properties. In this paper we establish the notion of strong stochastic convexity (SSCX), which implies SCX. We demonstrate that SSCX is a property enjoyed by a wide range of random variables. We also show that SSCX is preserved under random mixture, random summation, and any increasing and convex operations that are applied to a set of independent random variables. These closure properties greatly facilitate the study of parametric convexity of many stochastic systems. Applications to GI/G/1 queues, tandem and cyclic queues, and tree-like networks are discussed. We also demonstrate the application of SSCX in bounding the performance of certain systems.

We derive a rate conservation law for distribution densities which extends a result of Brill and Posner. Based on this conservation law, we obtain a generalized Takács equation for the G/G/m/B queueing system that only requires the existence of a stochastic intensity for the arrival process and the residual service time distribution density for the G/GI/1/B queue. Finally, we solve Takács' equation for the N/GI/1/∞ queueing system.

Non-exponential queueing networks with blocking are studied under two types of blocking protocols: the ‘stop' and the ‘repeat' protocol under which services are to be either stopped or repeated respectively upon blocking. The two protocols are shown to be stationary equivalent when the system satisfies a partial balance condition. This condition is related to product-form results. The results are illustrated by closed and open network applications with reversible and nonreversible routing.

This paper studies a single server queue with finite waiting room where the server takes vacations according to two different strategies: (i) an exhaustive service discipline, where the server takes a vacation whenever the system becomes empty and these vacations are repeated as long as there are no customers in the system upon return from a vacation, i.e. a repeated vacation strategy; (ii) a limited service discipline, where the server begins a vacation either if K customers have been served in the same busy period or if the system is empty and then a repeated vacation strategy is followed. The input process is a general Markovian arrival process introduced by Lucantoni, Meier-Hellstern and Neuts, which as special cases includes the Markov modulated Poisson process and the phase-type renewal process. The service times and vacation times each are generally distributed random variables. For both models, we obtain the queue length distribution at departures, at an arbitrary time instant and at arrival time. We also derive the loss probability of an arriving customer. We obtain formulae for the LST of the virtual waiting time distribution and for the LST of the waiting time distribution at arrival epochs.

We establish a conservation law for G/G/1 queues with any work-conserving service discipline using the equilibrium equations, also called the basic equations. We use this conservation law to prove an extremal property of the first-come firstserved (FCFS) service discipline: among all service disciplines that are work-conserving and independent of remaining service requirements for individual customers, the FCFS service discipline minimizes [maximizes] the mean sojourn time in a G/G/1 queue with independent (but not necessarily identical) service times with a common mean and new better [worse] than used (NBUE[NWUE]) distributions. This extends recent results of Halfin and Whitt (1990), Righter et al. (1990) and Yamazaki and Sakasegawa (1987a,b). In addition we use the conservation law to obtain an approximation for the mean queue length in a GI/GI/1 queue under the processor-sharing service discipline with finite degree of multiplicity, called LiPS discipline. Several numerical examples are presented which support the practical usefulness of the proposed approximation.

We consider the optimal control of an M/G/1 queue with finite input source. The queue length, however, can be only imperfectly observed through the observations at the initial time and the times of successive departures. At these times, the service rate can be chosen, based on the observable histories. A service cost and a holding cost are incurred. We show that such a control problem can be formulated as a semi-Markov decision process with imperfect state information, and present sufficient conditions for the existence of an optimal stationary I-policy.

In this paper the t-step maintainable regions Mt are examined in a three-graded system under the following conditions: the total size of the system remains constant during each intermediate step, demotions do not occur and recruitment control is considered.

A counterexample, showing that the monotonicity property Mt ⊆ Mt+1 does not exist in general, refutes the conjecture of Davies [3].

A remarkable distribution found by Mardia and Dryden for the shape of a random triangle in ℝ2 whose vertices are displaced from their initial positions by independent identical symmetrical gaussian perturbations is re-derived via stochastic calculus.

We consider the convex hull of a sample of n randomly placed points in a unit circle. Obviously not all of the n points are needed to construct the convex hull. We show that asymptotically only the points belonging to a certain ring are used for the convex hull, where the size of the ring decreases at a certain rate such that the error of not completely correct construction of the convex hull by the particular subset of points tends to 0.