We analyse the expected performance of various group testing, or pooling, designs. The context is that of identifying characterized clones in a large collection of clones. Here we choose as performance criterion the expected number of unresolved ‘negative’ clones, and we aim to minimize this quantity. Technically, long inclusion–exclusion summations are encountered which, aside from being computationally demanding, give little inkling of the qualitative effect of parametric control on the pooling strategy. We show that readily-interpreted re-summation can be performed, leading to asymptotic forms and systematic corrections. We apply our results to randomized designs, illustrating how they might be implemented for approximating combinatorial formulae.

Given independent random variables X1,…,Xn, with continuous distributions F1,…,Fn, we investigate the order in which these random variables should be arranged so as to minimize the number of upper records. We show that records are stochastically minimized if the sequence F1,…,Fn decreases with respect to a partial order, closely related to the monotone likelihood ratio property. Also, the expected number of records is shown to be minimal when the distributions are comparable in terms of a one-sided hazard rate ordering. Applications to parametric models are considered.

In this paper, we give necessary and sufficient conditions to ensure the validity of confidence intervals, based on the central limit theorem, in simulations of highly reliable Markovian systems. We resort to simulations because of the frequently huge state space in practical systems. So far the literature has focused on the property of bounded relative error. In this paper we focus on ‘bounded normal approximation’ which asserts that the approximation of the normal law, suggested by the central limit theorem, does not deteriorate as the reliability of the system increases. Here we see that the set of systems with bounded normal approximation is (strictly) included in the set of systems with bounded relative error.

We consider a sequence of observations which is generated by a so-called hidden Markov model. An exponential smoothing procedure applied to such an observation sequence generates an inhomogeneous Markov process as a sequence of smoothed values. If the state sequence of the underlying hidden Markov model is moreover ergodic, then for two classes of smoothing functions the strong ergodicity of the sequence of smoothed values is proved. As a consequence a central limit theorem and a law of large numbers hold true for the smoothed values. The proof uses general results for so-called convergent inhomogeneous Markov processes. The procedure proposed by the author can be applied to some time series discussed in the literature.

This paper deals with the recurrence of branching random walks on polynomially growing graphs. Amongst other things, we demonstrate the strong recurrence of tree indexed random walks determined by the resistance properties of spherically symmetric graphs. Several branching walk models are considered to show how the branching mechanism influences the recurrence behaviour.

We derive explicit closed expressions for the moment generating functions of whole collections of quantities associated with the waiting time till the occurrence of composite events in either discrete or continuous-time models. The discrete-time models are independent, or Markov-dependent, binary trials and the events of interest are collections of successes with the property that each two consecutive successes are separated by no more than a fixed number of failures. The continuous-time models are renewal processes and the relevant events are clusters of points. We provide a unifying technology for treating both the discrete and continuous-time cases. This is based on first embedding the problems into similar ones for suitably selected Markov chains or Markov renewal processes, and second, applying tools from the exponential family technology.

Using the Girsanov transformation we derive estimates for the accuracy of piecewise approximations for one-sided and two-sided boundary crossing probabilities. We demonstrate that piecewise linear approximations can be calculated using repeated numerical integration. As an illustrative example we consider the case of one-sided and two-sided square-root boundaries for which we also present analytical representations in a form of infinite power series.

Let {Xn, n ≥ 0} be a stationary Gaussian sequence of standard normal random variables with covariance function r(n) = EX0Xn. Let Under some mild regularity conditions on r(n) and the condition that r(n)lnn = o(1) or (r(n)lnn)−1 = O(1), the asymptotic distribution of is obtained. Continuous-time results are also presented as well as a tube formula tail area approximation to the joint distribution of the sum and maximum.

In this paper, we consider a certain class of Markov renewal processes where the matrix of the transition kernel governing the Markov renewal process possesses some block-structured property, including repeating rows. Duality conditions and properties are obtained on two probabilistic measures which often play a key role in the analysis and computations of such a block-structured process. The method used here unifies two different concepts of duality. Applications of duality are also provided, including a characteristic theorem concerning recurrence and transience of a transition matrix with repeating rows and a batch arrival queueing model.

We consider the tail probabilities of a class of compound distributions. First, the relations between reliability distribution classes and heavy-tailed distributions are discussed. These relations reveal that many previous results on estimating the tail probabilities are not applicable to heavy-tailed distributions.

Then, a generalized Wald's identity and identities for compound geometric distributions are presented in terms of renewal processes. Using these identities, lower and upper bounds for the tail probabilities are derived in a unified way for the class of compound distributions, both under the conditions of NBU and NWU tails, which include exponential tails, as well as under the condition of heavy-tailed distributions.

Finally, simplified bounds are derived by the technique of stochastic ordering. This method removes some unnecessary technical assumptions and corrects errors in the proof of some previous results.

A random number of independent identically distributed random variables is inspected in strict succession. As a variable is inspected, it can either be selected or rejected and this decision becomes final at once. The selected sequence must increase. The problem is to maximize the expected length of the selected sequence.

We demonstrate decision policies which approach optimality when the number of observations becomes in a sense large and show that the maximum expected length is close to an easily computable value.

We develop an algorithm for computing approximations to the stationary distribution of a discrete birth-and-death process, provided that the infinitesimal generator is a banded matrix. We begin by computing stationary distributions for processes whose infinitesimal generators are Hessenberg. Our derivation in this special case is different from the classical case but it leads to the same result. We then show how to extend these ideas to processes where the infinitesimal generator is banded (or half-banded) and to quasi-birth–death processes. Finally, we give an example of the application of this method to a nearly completely decomposable Markov chain to demonstrate the general applicability of the technique.

The random triangle model was recently introduced as a random graph model that captures the property of transitivity that is often found in social networks, i.e. the property that given that two vertices are second neighbors, they are more likely to be neighbors. For parameters p ∊ [0,1] and q ≥ 1, and a finite graph G = (V, E), it assigns to elements η of {0,1}E probabilities which are proportional to where t(η) is the number of triangles in the open subgraph. In this paper the behavior of the random triangle model on the two-dimensional triangular lattice is studied. By mapping the system onto an Ising model with external field on the hexagonal lattice, it is shown that phase transition occurs if and only if p = (q−1)−2/3 and q > qc for a critical value qc which turns out to equal It is furthermore demonstrated that phase transition cannot occur unless p = pc(q), the critical value for percolation of open edges for given q. This implies that for q ≥ qc, pc(q) = (q−1)−2/3.

Take a sample of individuals in the fixed-size population model with exchangeable family sizes. Follow the ancestral lines for the sampled individuals backwards in time to observe the ancestral process. We describe a class of asymptotic structures for the ancestral process via a convergence criterion. One of the basic conditions of the criterion prevents simultaneous mergers of ancestral lines. Another key condition implies that the marginal distribution of the family size is attracted by an infinitely divisible distribution. If the latter is normal the coalescent allows only for pairwise mergers (Kingman's coalescent). Otherwise multiple mergers happen with positive probability.

The ‘change of numéraire’ technique has been introduced by Geman, El Karoui and Rochet for pricing and hedging contingent claims in the case of complete markets. In this paper we study the ‘change of numéraire’ using the ‘locally risk-minimizing approach’, when the market is not complete. We prove that, if the stochastic process which represents the prices is continuous, the l.r.m. strategy is invariant by a change of numéraire (this result is false in the right-continuous case, as is shown by some counterexamples).

We also give an extension of Merton's formula to the case of stochastic volatility.

For systems subject to inspections at Poisson random times, we present an analytic method which gives upper and lower bounds for the reliability. We also study its asymptotic behaviour and derive the asymptotic failure rate.

We study a service system with a fixed upper bound for its workload and two independent inflows of customers: frequent ‘small’ ones and occasional ‘large’ ones. The workload process generated by the small customers is modelled by a Brownian motion with drift, while the arrival times of the large customers form a Poisson process and their service times are exponentially distributed. The workload process is reflected at zero and at its upper capacity bound. We derive the stationary distribution of the workload and several related quantities and compute various important characteristics of the system.

The convergence to equilibrium of the renormalized M/M/N/N queue is analysed. Upper bounds on the distance to equilibrium are obtained and the cut-off property for two regimes of this queue is proved. Simple probabilistic methods, such as coupling techniques and martingales, are used to obtain these results.

We consider the problem of routeing customers to one of two parallel queues. Arrivals are independent of the state of the system but otherwise arbitrary. Assuming that queues have infinite capacities and the service times form a sequence of i.i.d. random variables with increasing likelihood ratio (ILR) distribution, we prove that the shortest queue (SQ) policy minimizes various cost functionals related to queue lengths and response times. We give a counterexample which shows that this result is not generally true when the service times have increasing hazard rate but are not increasing in the likelihood rate sense. Finally, we show that when capacities are finite the SQ policy stochastically maximizes the departure process and minimizes the loss counting process.

In this paper we study the conditional limiting behaviour for the virtual waiting time process for the queue M/D/1. We describe the family of conditional invariant distributions which are continuous and parametrized by the eigenvalues λ ∊ (0, λc], as it happens for diffusions. In this case, there is a periodic dependence of the limiting conditional distributions on the initial point and the minimal conditional invariant distribution is a mixture, according to an exponential law, of the limiting conditional distributions.