The aims of this paper are (a) to construct probability models for peacetime and wartime alliance formation, (b) to provide international political interpretations of the probability models, and (c) to obtain some policy implications from these models.

Since Horvath and Foster published their seminal work in 1963 on probability models of wartime alliance sizes, no further research has been undertaken to elaborate their ideas (except for Yamamoto, 1974; and Yamamoto and Bremer, 1980), even though varied probability models have been applied to the analysis of war occurrences (see Richardson; Singer and Small, 1972; and Wilkinson) and of peacetime alliance formation (see McGowan and Rood, and Siverson and Duncan). Horvath and Foster found that the frequency distribution of wartime alliance sizes is accounted for by a Yule distribution which has a long tail (meaning that large alliances are likely to form in war) and that a Yule distribution can be derived from a process in which a war alliance will acquire new members with.a probability directly proportional to its current size (i.e., the number of participating nations in the alliance) and in which the members of alliances are not allowed to leave until war ends.

Over the past two decades, psychologists, economists, and political scientists have developed a substantial literature on diplomatic bargaining. Its descriptive and normative development has substantially increased our understanding of the fundamentals of bargaining structures and strategies, outlined the fundamental choices facing negotiator and hypothesized an array of variables to explain outcomes.

The question of the Israeli settlement in the occupied territories has become a focal point for the political system, an issue of ‘high politics’ affecting values and symbols important to Israeli society as a whole. Indeed, the settlement issue may be described as having a significant bearing both on the domestic scene and on Israel's posture In the international arena. Domestically, it has been a subject of acute controversy and intense power straggles. Externally, the. settlements have aroused widespread international opposition and criticism.

Siam's only effective contribution to the war in Asia was to act as a jumping-off ground for the invasion of Burma and as a base for Japanese forces operating in Malaya, Yet this small country found itself at the centre of an increasingly acrimonious debate between London and Washington. This was no briefer simple misunderstanding between allies. The. problem began in 1942 and dragged on well into 1946, Its real cause was obviously not the conduct of the Siamese9 but sharply contrasting perceptions of previous roles in Asia and of national interests in the post-war world. It was a dispute that demonstrated how difficult it was to get Anglo-American political and military collaboration in South-East Asia., as long as Britain remained an imperial power9 at the very time when the war was engendering in Europe a remarkable degree of co-operation between the two countries.

In limited degree, of course, industry and warfare have been connected from the earliest times. Weapons are what make human muscles formidable; and from the dawn of civilization it took specialized craftsmen to make weapons out of metal In the course of time the amount of metal used by warriors tended to increase; and the size of armies may also have grown greater—though with such ups and downs that no very definite growth pattern here emerges before the wars of the French Revolution.